ace crc year in review 2011/12

YEAR IN REVIEWACE

CRC

ANTARCTIC CLIMATE& ECOSYSTEMS CRC

Climate Science for Australia’s Futurewww.acecrc.org.au

ACECRC


Australian GovernmentDepartment of Sustainability, Environment,

Water, Population and CommunitiesAustralian Antarctic Division

YIR02-2011-120827ISSN 1839-1435

© Copyright 2012 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

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Communications ManagerAntarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research CentrePrivate Bag 80HobartTasmania 7001Tel: +61 3 6226 7888Email: [email protected]

The ACE CRC is a unique collaboration between core partners the Australian Antarctic Division, CSIRO, the University of Tasmania, the Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency, the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Germany) and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (New Zealand) and a consortium of supporting partners. It is funded by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Program.

Printed on forestry stewardship certified paper

Cover picture - Scientists, engineers and crew from the ACE CRC, Bureau of Meteorology, Integrated Marine Observing System and the Marine National Facility deploy equipment in the Southern Ocean from aboard Southern Surveyor. © ACE CRC

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CEO Message 4

Introduction 7

The Partnership 8

The Board 12

Our Research 14

Oceans Program 16

Cryosphere Program 18

Carbon Program 24

Ecosystems Impacts Program 31

Sea-Level Rise Impacts 33

Climate Futures for Tasmania 36

Research Utilisation 40

Education 44

Key Papers 2011 46

ACE CRC YEAR IN REVIEW

With 20 years behind us, it’s no surprise that the ACE CRC hit the ground running in its final incarnation as a CRC. 2011-12 saw important scientific papers published, leadership and participation in a major voyage and key contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We hosted six members of the CRC Program and successfully completed the ‘Six Month’, ‘First Year’ and ‘Mid-Term’ Reviews.

Not least among the CRC’s achievements is the fostering of young scientific talent, and you will see this highlighted in these pages. This is an incredibly important part of our role. We support and communicate the work of the many senior scientists among our ranks, and we help develop the next generation of researchers.

In the 2010-11 financial year our post-doctoral cohort produced 19 publications, presented work at numerous international conferences and participated on research voyages and expeditions. Some of our young scientists are enthusiastically communicating what they know through the Climate Conversations, speaking directly to the public about their climate change research, taking questions and encouraging discussion while explaining the science.

ACE has around 18 post docs among its ranks. Twenty-one ACE staff are supervising at least one PhD. In the reporting period eight PhD students commenced, 11 completed and 34 continued their studies on ACE CRC-related research.

ACE has also been highly successful in achieving its milestones. Oceans Program leader Dr Stephen Rintoul led a multidisciplinary team of 40 Australian and international scientists to the Mertz polynya to investigate changes from the sea surface to the sea floor since the calving of the Mertz glacier tongue. Scientists from the Cryosphere Program were part of the international ICECAP survey of the bedrockof part of East Antarctica. Revealing what lies beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet, the survey has profound implications for understanding how the region will respond to climate change, and for projections of sea-level rise. In 2011 Nature published a paper from this work.

The ACE CRC’s contribution to the Southern Ocean component of the global Surface Ocean Carbon Atlas is complete and the atlas has been published online. Development of regional estimates of carbon fluxes has begun in the lead-up to IPCC AR5. The Ecosystems Impacts Program began the next phase of building a second-generation marine ecosystem model for the Southern Ocean. Efforts in this were centred on ACE CRC collaborations with Old Dominion University in the US and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research.

The Climate Futures for Tasmania project highlighted the value of producing climate change projections at local scales, developing outputs in collaboration with end-users, and delivering in formats meaningful to the community. The Climate Futures for Tasmania model has received strong recognition from end-users in Tasmania and much interest from around Australia.

The ACE CRC is making important contributions to IPCC AR5. Dr Stephen Rintoul and Professor Nathan Bindoff are both Coordinating Lead Authors. Professor Ian Allison is a Lead Author in Working Group I and Dr Andrew Constable has been invited to be a Lead Author for Working Group II. ACE scientists are also making a considerable contribution through the peer review literature and as contributing authors. And, in breaking news, Hobart will host the IPCC’s 5th Lead Authors’ Meeting for Working Group I in January 2013.

The Mid-Term Review of the ACE CRC has confirmed the national and international importance of our research; the very high quality of that research; and the importance of the research training and capacity building that we undertake. As we head into the final two years of CRC funding, the challenge is to find the way to keep this collaboration alive beyond June 2014.

A J Press (CEO)

FROM THE CEO

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Antarctic ice cave © Frederique Olivier

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CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE

ACE is a multidisciplinary partnership of 21 national and international organisations. We provide science, knowledge and understanding to help Australia meet the challenges of climate change.

We do this by understanding the crucial role played by Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in global climate, and the impacts of climate change on Australia and the world. We inform governments, the community and scientists about climate change to guide Australia’s future.

Changes in ocean temperature, salinity and acidification are being experienced first in the relatively cool waters of the Southern Ocean, providing an early warning of similar changes in tropical and subtropical regions such as those surrounding the Great Barrier Reef. © Gary Bell/OceanwideImages.com


“ACE CRC science has been widely used across the three tiers of government, by industry and by other scientists. ACE provides a focus for improved research coordination, leading to greater resource efficiency and effectiveness. ACE is indeed a unique research collaboration, and one that is highly regarded.

In response to the question: ‘In a hypothetical situation where the ACE CRC did not exist, what do you think would be the more likely implications?’, Ross Garnaut indicated that a recommendation to establish an organisation such as the ACE CRC would have been made in the Garnaut Climate Change Review if the ACE CRC didn’t already exist.”

CEO of the ACE CRC, Dr Tony Press

ACE is built on a strong, long-standing and productive collaboration between six core partners. It also has 15 supporting partners. Four of the supporting partners in ACE are commercial. These commercial collaborations underline the increasing recognition of the potential commercial impacts of climate change.

THE PARTNERSHIP

The UTAS campus in Sandy Bay, Tasmania. © Peter Cochrane (UTAS)

Southern Surveyor, the CSIRO’s oceanographic, geo-science, fisheries and ecosystem research vessel. © Australia’s Marine National Facility

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CORE PARTNERS

The Australian Antarctic Division leads Australia’s Antarctic program. Its charter is to ensure Australia’s Antarctic interests are advanced. The AAD provides ACE with research expertise and considerable logistics support.

The CSIRO Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research aims to advance Australian climate, marine and earth systems science. It provides ACE with research expertise across our programs.

The University of Tasmania, the fourth oldest in Australia, is an international university located in Hobart. It provides higher education for up and coming scientists and operational support for ACE.

The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency delivers the Australian Government’s climate change framework. It is an end user of our research.

The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany, studies the Arctic and Antarctic and coordinates German polar research. It collaborates across ACE research programs and provides logistics support.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand, is a research and consultancy company with a global reputation. It collaborates with ACE on cryosphere and Southern Ocean circulation research and provides logistics support.

Australian GovernmentDepartment of Sustainability, Environment,

Water, Population and CommunitiesAustralian Antarctic Division

The headquarters of the Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania. © Jessica Fitzpatrick (AAD)

The research and supply icebreaker RV Polarstern is the flagship of the Alfred Wegener Institute, a core partner of the ACE CRC. © Klaus Meiners (ACE CRC)


SUPPORTING PARTNERS

The Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities develops and implements national policy, programs and legislation to protect and conserve Australia’s environment and heritage. The department uses ACE research to help guide this decision making.

The Tasmanian Government uses ACE’s research in formulating policy. It provides key funding for the Climate Futures project.

The Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, UK, is a research centre that studies processes in the Earth’s polar latitudes. It collaborates with ACE on our cryosphere research.

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences concentrates on research in applied meteorology and atmospheric science. It collaborates with ACE on cryosphere research.

The Institute of Low Temperature Science, Japan, promotes interdisciplinary studies on various natural phenomena in the cryosphere. It collaborates with ACE on specific research projects and provides logistics support.

The First Institute of Oceanography, China, is a comprehensive oceanographic research institute engaged in applied and basic research. It collaborates with ACE on Southern Ocean research projects and provides logistics support and observational equipment.

Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, France, is a multi-disciplinary research organisation concerned with environmental research centred on physical oceanography, marine geochemistry and biogeochemistry, spatial hydrology and the dynamics of polar ice sheets. It collaborates with ACE on specific research projects and provides logistics support.

The National Institute of Polar Research, Japan, is an Inter-University Research Institute and a key institute for implementing Japanese Antarctic research programs. It collaborates in research across our Cryosphere, Carbon and Ecosystem Impacts programs.

The University of Texas at Austin uses airborne, land-based and marine geophysical methods to better understand ice sheet evolution, climate and geologic settings in polar regions. It collaborates with the ACE Cryosphere Program on specific research projects.

The University of Texas at San Antonio Laboratory for Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics uses remote sensing equipment to investigate sea ice and collaborates with ACE on sea ice research.

The Vrije Universiteit Brussel collaborates with ACE on research projects on the Southern Ocean biological pump.

Myriax Software Pty Ltd, Australia, specialises in sophisticated fisheries acoustics technology and 4D geospatial software. It supports our research with specialised visualisation software.

pitt&sherry is an award-winning Australian professional services company providing consulting engineering, scientific and building surveying services. It collaborates on consulting projects and our Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Climate Futures research.

The University of Texas at AustinThe University of Texas at San Antonio Laboratory for Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics

The Vrije Universiteit Brussel

The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research

The Institute of Low Temperature Science

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

The National Institute of Polar Research

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

The First Institute of Oceanography

Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales

The Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling

Australian Antarctic DivisionCSIROUniversity of TasmaniaThe Tasmanian GovernmentMyriax Software Pty Ltd

RPS Metocean Pty Ltd

pitt&sherry Pty Ltd

Department of Climate Change and Energy EfficiencyThe Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities

SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd

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RPS MetOcean, Australia, is a leading consultancy providing oceanographic and meteorological services in support of coastal and ocean engineering and environmental protection. It collaborates on our Sea-Level Rise Impacts research.

SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd, Australia, is a specialist economics and planning consulting company. It collaborates on consulting projects and our Sea-Level Rise Impacts research.


Katherine Woodthorpe (Chair) Dr Woodthorpe is a management adviser and professional director, specialising in innovation and commercialisation. She is currently the Chief Executive of AVCAL, the Australian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association. She has a varied background in science, technology, human resources and government interaction.

Tony Press (CEO)Dr Press has been CEO of ACE since January 2009. Before this appointment, Dr Press was director of the Australian Antarctic Division from 1998 to 2009. He has been a board member of the ACE CRC (and its predecessor) since 1998. As CEO, he is an ex-officio member of the ACE board.

Howard BamseyProfessor Bamsey is Adjunct Professor in Climate Change and Energy Security at the United States Study Centre at Sydney University. He is also affiliated with the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at the Australian National University and is Special Adviser on Sustainable Development to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Until recently he was Australia’s Special Envoy on Climate Change and Deputy Secretary of the Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.

Bettina MeyerDr Meyer is the board appointee of the Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. She is the section head of Polar Biological Oceanography within the AWI and in 2012 commenced as Professor of Biodiversity and Biological Processes in Polar Seas at the University of Oldenburg. Her scientific interest focuses on how climate change impacts the pelagic ecosystem in the Southern Ocean.

Tony Coleman Mr Coleman is a director of Lonergan Edwards & Associates Ltd and has extensive experience in senior roles in the insurance, investment and finance sectors. He has worked with World Wildlife Fund (WWF) since 2004 as part of the Australian Climate Group, and with the Australian Conservation Foundation since 2005 on initiatives including the 2006 Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change. Mr Coleman was a contributing author to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

Tony FlemingDr Fleming is Director of the Australian Government’s Antarctic Division, with responsibility for Australia’s Antarctic program. Previously he was the National Operations Manager for the Australian Wildlife Conservancy. He is a former Director of the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Dr Fleming led the development of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act for the Federal Environment Department.

Nick Gales Dr Gales is Chief Scientist with the Australian Antarctic Division. Dr Gales started his career as a veterinarian/curator at a zoological marine park in Western Australia and has been involved in marine mammal research and management since 1980. He has also led the New Zealand Department of Conservation’s marine mammal research program and more recently the Australian Marine Mammal Centre.

THE BOARD

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Greg Johannes Mr Johannes is Deputy Secretary (policy) with the Tasmanian Department of Premier and Cabinet. He brings substantive board experience from both the research and community sectors, with a background in industry, policy, environmental management and public affairs. His areas of expertise include commercialisation of R&D, small business development, biotechnology and innovation.

Bruce Mapstone Dr Mapstone is Chief of CSIRO’s Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research. His research leadership and management experience spans 20 years, including as CEO of ACE and as Director of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (a research partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology).

Robert Murdoch Dr Murdoch has more than 12 years senior executive experience at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, where he is General Manager (Research). He is Deputy Chair of the board of World Wildlife Fund New Zealand and a member of a range of science advisory and management boards. His scientific expertise is in biological oceanography and marine ecology.

Paddy NixonProfessor Nixon took up the post of Pro Vice Chancellor for Research at the University of Tasmania in 2010. Before this he was University College Dublin’s first Science Foundation Ireland Research Professor. As SFI Research Professor in Distributed Systems he led the Systems Research Group at UCD.

John Pitt Mr Pitt is the Managing Director of pitt&sherry, a leading Australian professional services company. He is focused on the company’s operations in land transport, industrial and community infrastructure and on the mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change.

Harinder Sidhu Ms Sidhu is the First Assistant Secretary, Adaptation, Science and Communications Division of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. She is responsible for developing and implementing a strategic approach to climate change adaptation issues and coordinating climate change science activities. In this role she is also responsible for delivery of Department-wide communications and public affairs activities.

Board changes

There were a number of board changes during 2011. Geoff Leeper from DCCEE resigned and was replaced by Harinder Sidhu. Ulrich Bathmann resigned from Alfred-Wegener Institute and was replaced by Bettina Meyer. Lyn Maddock and John Gunn resigned from the Australian Antarctic Division and were replaced by Tony Fleming and Nick Gales respectively. The vacant independent board member position was filled by Howard Bamsey.


OUR RESEARCH

Our focus is to investigate critical scientific uncertainties, highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that limit Australia’s and the global community’s ability to respond effectively to climate change. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean influence regional and global climate in profound ways, and the Southern Ocean is likely to experience many changes, some of them sooner than other parts of the globe.

Our research is focused on:

• how the Southern Ocean is changing and the implications for Australia and the global climate now and in the future

• how sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheet will respond to changes

in climate and the impact changes in the cryosphere will have on climate and sea level

• whether the Southern Ocean will continue to remove CO2 from

the atmosphere and how rapidly this will increase the acidity of the ocean

• the impact of changes in Southern Ocean circulation, acidity

and sea ice on ecosystems and fisheries • the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on Australia

Scientists take snow from Law Dome, East Antarctica, to be used to measure Beryllium 10, a marker for solar activity. Beryllium 10 levels are compared with climate model simulations to gain better knowledge of atmospheric processes in the area. © Tessa Vance (ACE CRC)


OCEANS PROGRAM

ACE research is focused on how the Southern Ocean is changing and the implications of these changes for Australia and the world’s climate.

The strong links between the Southern Ocean and the rest of the Earth’s climate mean that continuing observation of circulation of the Southern Ocean is critical to our knowledge of how the climate could change in the future. We deliver an improved understanding of this important component of the global climate by an integrated system of observation, analysis and model simulations.

Research highlights for 2011:

• Dr Stephen Rintoul led a multidisciplinary team of 40 Australian and international scientists to the Mertz polynya in Antarctica to investigate changes from the sea surface to the sea floor following the calving of the Mertz glacier tongue in February 2010. This event has given scientists an opportunity to study how the environment in this region will change following the loss of the 3,200km2 tongue, and the implications for regional and global ocean circulation.

• Three scientific moorings have been deployed in the Mertz region to measure the outflow

of Antarctic Bottom Water from the polynya. The team measured water properties using a CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) sensor, with more than 100 profiles collected over the continental shelf and slope in the Mertz Polynya region. Preliminary analysis suggests that the calving of the glacier tongue has dramatically reduced the salinity of dense water on the continental shelf in the region.

• Position Analysis: Climate Change and the Southern Ocean was launched in 2011 to wide acclaim. It provides a synopsis of the latest scientific research into changes in the temperature, salinity, acidity and circulation in the Southern Ocean.

• Dr Stephen Rintoul and Professor Nathan Bindoff provided input to the deliberations of

Working Group 1 for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. They attended the first lead author meeting of the IPCC in China in late 2010.

The Mertz Glacier region after the breaking of the glacier tongue, April 2010 (European Space Agency)

Ocean sampling. © ACE CRC

A new world emerges …

The calving of the Mertz Glacier tongue in 2010 opened up a huge natural laboratory for scientists, and January 2011 saw the first scientific voyage into a region in transition.

Scientists are building their understanding of the Mertz region using cameras, moorings and sensors, collecting data from the sea surface to the sea floor and monitoring changes in a part of the Southern Ocean that, until the calving, hadn’t seen light for 80 years.

The Mertz Glacier tongue covered 3,200km2 and was hundreds of metres deep. Its displacement by a massive iceberg has given scientists a rare opportunity to examine how the ocean and the ecosystem in the region will respond to this fundamental change in conditions.

ACE CRC Oceans Program leader Dr Steve Rintoul led the multidisciplinary team of 40 Australian and international scientists to the Mertz region on Aurora Australis in January 2011. The team took measurements at 149 stations over the continental shelf and slope in the area.

The measurements collected on the voyage show that calving of the glacier tongue resulted in dramatic changes to the physics, biology and chemistry of the region. Water over the continental shelf became less salty and less dense, due to input of fresh water from melting ice, and a huge phytoplankton bloom resulted in strong ocean uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

This freshening is significant because the sinking of dense water formed on the Antarctic continental shelf contributes to global-scale ocean circulation patterns that influence climate. The calving of the Mertz Glacier Tongue has provided a natural experiment that will provide new insights into how the ocean overturning circulation might respond to climate change.

Dr Rintoul and his team returned to the area in January 2012, collecting more data to add to the Mertz region’s unfolding story.

By comparing our new measurements from this voyage to earlier observations, we can determine how the temperature, salinity and circulation of the Southern Ocean are changing. This information will help us track how rapidly climate is changing and help us improve projections of future change.

ACE Oceans Program leader Steve Rintoul

Exploring a part of the ocean not explored before is a privilege not many senior scientists have in their whole career, let alone someone like me whose career is just starting. Working in such an extreme environment makes you appreciate even more the value of the science we do here. ACE post-doctoral fellow Beatriz Pena-Molino, who travelled to the Mertz Region

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CRYOSPHERE PROGRAM The Cryosphere Program is split into three main research projects: the dynamic role of polar ice sheets in future sea level; the role of Antarctic sea ice in the climate system; and past and present climate – records and dynamics.

Antarctic Ice SheetsThe great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland hold the largest potential for substantial and prolonged contributions to sea-level rise in a warming climate, but our present ability to predict these changes is limited. We are investigating how the Antarctic ice sheets will respond to climate change and what impact these changes will have on climate and sea level.


• A major achievement during this period was the publication in Nature of the paper ‘A dynamic early East Antarctic ice sheet suggested by ice-covered fjord landscapes’. The research illuminates a 20-million year period of repeated growth and retreat of the ice sheet following initial Antarctic glaciation around 34 million years ago. It helps the understanding of how climate and the ice sheet interact.

• The paper was a product of the ICECAP project (Investigating the Cryospheric Evolution of the Central Antarctic Plate), an international collaboration which has provided the first detailed understanding of the early development of the ice sheet that now fills the Aurora Subglacial Basin in Antarctica. From December 2010 to January 2011 the ICECAP project completed 47,000km of aerial line surveys, revealing for the first time detail of the underlying bedrock in the region. The surveys show extensive regions where ice rests on bedrock below sea level. This potentially makes the ice sheet more vulnerable to melting and accelerated flow in a warming climate.

Antarctic Sea Ice The annual change from the Antarctic winter maximum sea ice extent to the summer minimum is one of the largest natural physical changes on the planet. Through a variety of feedback mechanisms sea ice acts as an agent and indicator of climate change. Our research is focused on how the Antarctic sea ice will respond to climate change and, in turn, what impact these changes will have on climate. The impact of changes in sea ice on marine ecosystems is also an important aspect of our research.

Over recent decades, the extent of sea ice and its thickness have decreased in the Arctic and a reduction in extent has also occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula region. However, it is not known how the thickness of Antarctic sea ice is changing.


• In May 2011 the sea ice team published Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography volume (58, 9-10) ‘Antarctic Sea Ice Research during the International Polar Year 2007-2009’. A total of 21 papers were published in this volume, of which 15 had ACE CRC authorship. The volume was edited by ACE CRC scientists Dr Tony Worby, Dr Klaus Meiners and Dr Petra Heil.

• The SIPEX-2 sea ice voyage is scheduled for 2012, a year later than envisaged. A SIPEX-2 workshop was held in early 2011 to plan the voyage. This is the major voyage for completing a range of field-based experiments on sea ice.

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ACE CRC glaciologist Joel Pedro between blizzards at the W10K Australian ice core drilling camp, Law Dome, East Antarctica. © Tessa Vance (ACE CRC)


• Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV) can be used to assist in determining sea ice thickness, variability and ecosystem process. The AUV to be supplied by Memorial University for the SIPEX-2 voyage was determined in field trials to be too large to operate from the Aurora Australis. We now have sourced a smaller AUV from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the US. This AUV can be operated much closer to the underside of the ice and will be used as an integrating tool to measure floe scale and ice thickness in combination with ACE airborne instruments.

Ice Cores Climate records from the Antarctic region, Southern Hemisphere and even Australia are relatively sparse and of short duration. Ice cores provide a detailed climate record for periods long before the recording of climate observations using instruments.

ACE scientists are collecting new ice cores to produce additional high-resolution climate records for the Antarctic. In addition scientists are developing existing records and using these to investigate regional and hemispheric climate processes, with emphasis on connections to Australian climate.


• The initial analysis of ice bore holes at Mill Island showed an approximate 0.75 degree Celsius warming of surface temperatures over the last 60 years. Analysis of the Mill Island core will occur during 2012.

• Beryllium (a proxy for solar strength) analyses were done from ice cores recovered from Law Dome.

• Chemical analyses of a new ice core collected from Mill Island showed strong oceanic signals that may provide new insights into a region about which we previously had little information.

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Scientists drill an access hole in the ice to allow for the deployment of under-ice instruments. © ACE CRC

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ACE CRC Cryosphere Program leader Tas van Ommen at work on the specially fitted Basler aircraft used to survey the bedrock beneath the ice in a vast area of East Antarctica’s Aurora Sub-Glacial Basin. © Duncan Young (University of Texas at Austin)

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It’s cold down there

Through technology and international collaboration scientists have begun to unlock one of the Earth’s great secrets: what lies beneath the massive ice sheet covering east Antarctica. With ice 4.5 kilometres thick in parts, it is no surprise that, until now, we have known little about this terrain. This knowledge is crucial to understanding the climate history of East Antarctica. Scientists from the ACE CRC Cryosphere Program were part of the international ICECAP team which published research in Nature in July 2011 describing the ancient landscape of the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The basin is a key geological feature in East Antarctica, extending more than 1000 kilometres inland from Casey Station. It is overlain by some of the thickest ice in Antarctica.

Flying in a specially-fitted DC-3T Basler aircraft, ICECAP scientists surveyed an area the size of the Northern Territory. High resolution ice-penetrating radar was used to capture the rock surface under the ice sheet, supplying data at regular intervals on the distance down to the bedrock. This data revealed a vast, smooth and deep bedrock basin reaching more than a kilometre below sea level, bordered by rugged mountain ranges, all hidden beneath the ice for millennia.

The work illuminates a 20-million-year period of repeated growth and retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet after the initial Antarctic glaciation around 34 million years ago. The geology revealed tells us about past climate change, helps us understand how climate and the ice sheet interact, and connects the ice with changes in past and perhaps future sea level. Accurate maps of regions like the Aurora Subglacial Basin, where the ice sheet rests on bedrock below sea level, are important for computer models predicting ice sheet changes and future sea-level rise.

The ICECAP project began in 2007 and involves scientists from the ACE CRC, the Australian Antarctic Division, the Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, the Universities of Edinburgh and Bristol, and the University of Texas at Austin. The research is continuing.

“The international ICECAP project is helping to answer some of the most pressing questions concerning the Antarctic ice sheet. What is the geometry of the ice sheet? What are the conditions at the base of the ice? Not only has the ICECAP partnership produced great science, but the collaboration itself has been exemplary and it has been my great pleasure to work as part of the team.”

ACE glaciologist Jason Roberts

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CARBON PROGRAM

The Carbon Program is split into three main projects: the Southern Ocean as a carbon sink, ocean fertilisation, and ocean acidification.

The Southern Ocean as a Carbon SinkThe world’s oceans act as a carbon sink, with one-third of humankind’s current annual CO2 emissions being absorbed there. The Southern Ocean absorbs about 40% of that. Whether or not the Southern Ocean will continue to absorb carbon at this rate is uncertain. ACE is measuring the progress of this sequestration, investigating the biological and physical processes that control the carbon uptake and the propensity for these to change.


• An assessment of the Southern Ocean’s uptake of carbon was completed, with ACE contributing to the Southern Ocean component of the global Surface Ocean Carbon Atlas (SOCAT), published online in late 2011. Development of regional estimates of carbon fluxes began in the lead-up to IPCC AR5 via participation in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes project (RECCAP – a component of the Global Carbon Project, www.globalcarbonproject.org).

• ACE continued to track ongoing changes in Southern Ocean carbon content, using both full ocean depth observations from the Aurora Australis research vessel in January 2011 and surface measurements from multiple transits of l’Astrolabe, the French Antarctic resupply vessel.

• The open ocean work was augmented by studies of the impact of sea ice and glacier melting on carbon uptake along the Antarctic margin, and comparison with results from the Arctic. A presentation on Carbon Uptake in Polar Continental Shelf Regions was given in September 2011 at the LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) Open Science Conference in China.

• The influence of ocean processes at the northern margin of the Southern Ocean was investigated in detail via the SAZ-Sense study of carbon uptake in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. This research culminated in the final submission of 21 papers to the journal Deep-Sea Research II in April 2011. The papers were published as a special issue on Biogeochemistry of the Australian Sector of the Southern Ocean later in the year.

• In recognition of the strong seasonality of polar environments, ACE researchers also developed and deployed automated moorings, with temporal resolution beyond that achievable from ship-based observations, to observe carbon uptake by the ocean.

A PRC tray containing punches of filter that hold samples of marine particles. © ACE CRC


Dr Delphine Dissard of the University of Western Australia with foraminifera collected between Australia and Antarctica for ACE CRC research into the impacts of ocean acidification on shelled zooplankton. © Donna Roberts (ACE CRC)

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Ocean FertilisationResearch by ACE and others has demonstrated that the addition of small quantities of iron to the Southern Ocean has the ability to increase ocean uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. This project examines the potential of increasing Southern Ocean uptake of CO2 via ocean iron fertilisation, as well as assessing the ecological risks. ACE takes the approach of studying natural iron fertilisation and the associated carbon uptake and ecosystem health as a basis for evaluating potential deliberate fertilisations.


• In May 2011 an ACE team led a joint Australian-New Zealand expedition in the Tasman Sea to determine concentrations of trace elements that are required by phytoplankton as micronutrients and are thus important to marine fertility. This work is part of a larger global effort under the GEOTRACES program.

• The second field project was a biogeochemistry experiment carried out at Casey Station, East Antarctica, with the Australian Antarctic Division. It demonstrated that fast-ice has an iron fertilisation potential of more than 400 cubic metres of iron-limited surface Southern Ocean seawater per square metre of fast ice, providing new understanding of the causes of ice-edge phytoplankton blooms that support diverse marine life.

• This and other work was presented by program leader Professor Tom Trull in an invited plenary talk on Ocean Fertilisation at the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Conference in Melbourne from 28 June – 7 July 2011.

Ocean AcidificationThe huge uptake of CO2 by the world’s oceans comes with the cost of increased ocean acidity. This could have serious impacts on the sustainability and management of marine and coastal ecosystems and fisheries. The focus of this project is primarily on determining the extent of ocean acidification, with a secondary component of assessing its impact on pelagic microbial organisms. Using samples from Antarctic voyages and automated observations, the program is mapping the progress of acidification and measuring the abundance of carbonate forming organisms that may be affected by ocean acidification.


• Outputs of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink project provide the main means for assessing the progress of ocean acidification. Because the acidification driven by CO2 uptake is countered by biological use of CO2, ocean acidity varies strongly and quantifying this is essential to understanding potential ecosystem impacts. In collaboration with the Integrated Marine Observing System, carbon flux moorings were deployed from Southern Surveyor in September 2010 and recovered on Southern Surveyor in April 2011. The moorings determine seasonal controls on air-sea CO2 exchange and carbon transport to the ocean interior, and thus the seasonality of ocean acidification.

• The amount of carbonate minerals formed by coccolithophores (phytoplankton) and foraminifera (zooplankton) were measured along the SR3 transect from Hobart to Antarctica. In general the abundance of the plankton and the carbonate minerals decreases southward, and the levels of coccolithophores appear to be lower than suggested by satellite remote sensing. These preliminary results suggest that coccolithophores, while likely to be negatively impacted by ocean acidification, may not be particularly important in the polar Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem.


Photo - A cold-water coral reef recently discovered 800 metres below the ocean’s surface on the edge of the Antarctic continental shelf. © Martin Riddle (AAD, Commonwealth of Australia)

Turning seven million data points into one big picture

Understanding and measuring the ocean’s uptake of CO2 is crucial in a warming world – the oceans, after all, absorb about one quarter of humankind’s current annual CO2 emissions.

Dr Bronte Tilbrook, a carbon scientist with the ACE CRC and the CSIRO, is one of 100 experts from around the world who are helping to put together the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) - a 40-year record of carbon dioxide accumulation in the surface ocean.

Dr Tilbrook and Dr Nicolas Metzl (from the French institution L’Ocean) lead SOCAT’s Southern Ocean effort, covering the region south of 30°S. This region absorbs about 40 per cent of the total global ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2, but whether it will continue to sequester carbon at the same rate into the future is uncertain.

The international team of SOCAT researchers gathered millions of raw data points that had been collected throughout the oceans from research vessels, commercial ships and moorings since 1968. Previously, many of these were not easy to access or were poorly described. All data was recalculated and scrutinised by many scientists to ensure that strict reporting and measurement standards were followed. Almost 7 million data points made the grade.

The SOCAT project released the first version of the data base in September 2011, after two years of effort. For the first time this data has been made accessible to scientists and the general public in a common, usable and well-documented format (www.socat.info).

The data is already being used to better determine ocean and global carbon budgets, and for research into the variability of oceanic carbon dioxide uptake, and the biological and physical processes that drive the ocean uptake. A key use of SOCAT will be to evaluate models that simulate ocean carbon uptake. The work has also helped in establishing where data coverage is particularly poor, including vast tracts of the Southern Ocean. An updated version of SOCAT is planned for 2013.

“I especially love the field component of my job. Even after analysing thousands of samples, I’m still amazed that a bottle of sea water I can hold in my hands was collected from 5 or 6 km below the surface! The interaction with other fields of research is exciting too; I like the idea that we are all working on our small pieces of the carbon system puzzle to understand the bigger picture, to understand how the earth works.“

Elizabeth Shadwick, ACE post-doctoral fellow - Carbon Cycling

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A mooring is deployed into the Southern Ocean south west of Tasmania from RV Southern Surveyor. © ACE CRC


ECOSYSTEMS IMPACTS PROGRAM The Ecosystems Impacts Program seeks to identify the potential impact of physical and chemical changes to the Southern Ocean and sea ice on Antarctic marine ecosystems and fisheries. Current thinking is that a krill-based ecosystem will remain, but that the productivity of the ecosystem will decline with the loss of sea ice. However, emerging science is showing that the structure of pelagic food webs may shift from a krill-based food web to a fish-based food web, such as that seen on the Kerguelen Plateau of the Southern Ocean. Such a change could seriously affect fisheries in the region, and the conservation of whales and other higher predators. ACE is using a combination of field studies and qualitative and quantitative modelling to evaluate different scenarios for the Antarctic marine ecosystem based on prognoses of climate change from the IPCC AR5 analyses.

Risk Assessment of Impacts on SpeciesLiterature and expert opinion is being gathered for the purpose of carrying out a risk assessment of species’ responses to climate change. Conceptual models of the impacts of changes in the physical environment and in food webs are being developed. Modelling of different Antarctic regions will ascertain the key drivers of change for species that are experiencing impacts of climate change. IPCC AR5 results will be used to ascertain change in those drivers and the likely consequences for species.

The Ecosystems Program has contributed to Working Group 2 of IPCC AR5. ACE research on ecosystems impacts of climate change in polar regions will contribute to Chapter 28 of the report.


• There has been substantial progress on risk assessments of climate change impacts on Antarctic marine ecosystems. The compilation of data and statistical analytical methods are ready for analysis.

• DCCEE contributed additional funds for research to compare the shell weights of pteropods collected south of the polar front (54°S) to those analysed and collected from waters north of the polar front (47°S). Collection of samples is complete and analysis is under way.

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Left: Sea-ice scientists deploying a Remotely Operated Vehicle to research the underside of sea ice. © ACE CRCBelow: Elephant seals, Antarctica. © AAD

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Productivity of the Sea-Ice ZoneSea ice is a dominant seasonal force in marine ecosystems, providing a habitat for ice algae to contribute up to a quarter of total annual primary production in the sea-ice zone. This project evaluates the links between ocean productivity and the spatial and temporal dynamics of the sea-ice zone.


• An international dataset of sea-ice algae biomass has been derived from sea-ice cores from around Antarctica. This data set has been compiled in order to assess large-scale patterns of sea-ice algae and biomass distribution, and to validate models. The data was compiled from 33 research voyages conducted over 27 years, and is being analysed and prepared for inclusion in the ASPeCt sea-ice database held at the Australian Antarctic Division.

• The SIPEX-2 voyage is scheduled for 2012, a year later than planned. Preparation for this flagship field program is well under way. A remotely operated vehicle has been purchased and is being fitted out with physical-biological instruments to investigate the under-ice environment off East Antarctica.


Yes, we can glimpse the future

Imagine looking through a window to the future and seeing not just the marine life that has adapted or thrived in a warmer climate, but all the relationships and influences at play in that new environment.

An interdisciplinary team from the ACE CRC Ecosystems Impacts program is creating this virtual world with the building of a coupled, or whole-of-system, ecosystem model that brings together existing ocean, ice, atmosphere and food web models.

This coupled modelling has not previously been attempted at a regional scale for the Southern Ocean. Spatial and seasonal variations in Antarctic marine habitats (such as the advance and retreat of sea ice, or the change in daylight hours) make the development of models of these dynamic processes challenging, but the end result of this project will be a forewarning of the possible impacts of rising CO2 on the Southern Ocean’s East Antarctic ecosystems.

The project began in 2010 but hit top gear in 2011 when scientists from the climate modelling and ecology disciplines were brought on board. Foundation work in 2011 included risk assessments of important linkages between Southern Ocean organisms and the physical environment, as well as the development of general procedures for exchanging information between different models. In the case of the coupled ecosystem model being developed at ACE, this means that the ROMS physical oceanography model, which projects ocean changes based on IPCC emissions scenarios, will be able to communicate with the Atlantis model of the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean, which simulates ecological processes.

The Southern Ocean can be seen as an early warning system for climate-driven change in marine systems, due to the fact that fisheries, pollution and coastal development are less pronounced there than in other regions. The nature of the environment means that Southern polar regions may respond dramatically to climate change, which means the ability to project the likely changes in ecosystems over time and space is crucial.

Building the model has brought together multiple disciplines – ecology, biogeochemistry, fisheries, ocean and sea-ice modelling and climate science – and institutions. ACE scientists are working directly with scientists at the CSIRO and the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography at Old Dominion University in Virginia in the US. In 2011 ACE climate modeller Stuart Corney spent 12 weeks visiting colleagues at Old Dominion, where researchers have been integral in the development of the ROMS model. Those researchers were able to offer expert guidance and advice in configuring and running ROMS for Southern Ocean applications.

ACE CRC researchers are aiming to run the coupled model for the first time in 2012.

“What we are doing here has never been done at this scale for the Southern Ocean. We’re taking the disciplines of ocean modelling and ecology and bringing them together to create something akin to a flight simulator for Southern Ocean ecosystems.” Stuart Corney, Modeller, Ecosystems Impacts Program

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Sea-level rise will be a major effect of climate change, both now and in the future. Rising sea levels are caused mainly by thermal expansion of seawater (in a similar way to the expansion of liquid in a thermometer), and by the addition of water to the oceans from melted land ice such as mountain glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Over the last century, global-average sea level rose about 16 cm (i.e. at an average rate of 1.6 mm per year) and the present rate of rise is about 3 mm per year. The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicated that sea level is expected to rise about 0.2 - 0.8 m during the 21st century. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in these projections and recent, but controversial, research has suggested they may be underestimates.

Sea-level rise will be experienced mainly as an increase in the frequency or likelihood of flooding events, rather than simply as a steady increase in an otherwise constant level.

Using statistical techniques, ACE has developed a sea-level calculator (Canute) which helps in the management of the impacts of sea-level rise. Canute (www.sealevelrise.info) provides estimates of the likelihood of flooding from the sea during this century by combining two uncertainties - the frequency of present storm surges and the amount of future sea-level rise - into a single likelihood.

In conjunction with its commercial participants, pitt&sherry and SGS Economics & Planning, ACE is developing consulting services to complement Canute.


• In conjunction with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, ACE organised a National Storm Tide Modelling Workshop. The need for a national storm-tide model was highlighted and the best approach for its development discussed. Strategies for modelling storm tides induced by tropical cyclones were also considered.

• Modelling of storm tides driven by synoptic weather patterns around the Australian coastline has been completed through collaboration with the University of Western Australia.

• An upgrade to the original Canute decision-support tool, incorporating the storm tide modelling and other enhancements, is under way and will be launched in 2012.

• Online training for Canute (www.sealevelrise.info) was developed.

SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACTS

Coastal erosion at Kingscliffe Beach, Tweed Heads, NSW © Chris Sharples


Above: Dr John Hunter’s research shows the projected increase in frequency of flooding events from the sea for a sea-level rise of 0.5 m.

Right: Infrastructure at risk from coastal inundation in Cairns. © Cairns City Council

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TASMANIA

FREMANTLE

DARWIN

ADELAIDE MELBOURNE

SYDNEY

HOBART

PORT HEDLAND

BUNDABERG

TOWNSVILLE

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10

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Baleen whales’ faecal iron concentration is calculated to be about 10 million times that of Antarctic seawater. © Michel Lizarzaburu

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One step ahead of rising seas

New ACE research allows a comparison of the impacts of sea-level rise on cities throughout the world.

Oceanographer Dr John Hunter has produced a global map showing the vulnerability to future sea-level rise, by combining information on existing storm surges and the modelled change in sea level. Both of these factors involve uncertainties which are appropriately addressed in the analysis.

The results inform planners and policymakers about the amount that infrastructure should be raised in order to prevent the risk of coastal flooding increasing during this century.

The research also shows that, if no such action is taken, then the frequency of coastal flooding events will increase markedly, even for a relatively modest rise in sea level. For example, for a sea-level rise of 0.5 metres, places like Cristobal (Panama), Rikitea (French Polynesia), Kwajalein (Marshall Islands), Capetown, Honolulu, Key West and Antofagasta (Chile) would experience at least 5,000 times as many coastal floods as they do now. Sydney would experience at least 2000 times as many coastal floods as now, but on the other side of the country, Fremantle would only experience 61 times as many floods.

Dr Hunter’s research has been published in the journal Climatic Change. In 2011 he presented the research at the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics in Melbourne.

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The end of one project means the beginning for many moreThe results of fine-scale climate modelling by scientists from the ACE CRC are now being put to work by Tasmanian policymakers, businesses and farmers.

The Climate Futures for Tasmania project, hosted by the ACE CRC, is a world leader in the level of detail in its projections. The first technical report from the project – into General Climate Impacts – was released in October 2010. Another four reports – Impacts on Agriculture, Water and Catchments, Climate Modelling and Extreme Events – were launched in 2011 with the support of the Tasmanian Government.

Each technical report and accompanying summary was produced after researchers downscaled six IPCC global climate models to a grid of approximately 10 kilometres across the Tasmania. Projections of the impacts of climate change were made out to 2100, giving businesses and policymakers invaluable information to help guide decision making.

The projections were extended into impacts in extreme events, agriculture, water and floods, coastal sea-level rise and wind hazard assessments. In total the simulations took approximately 1300 days of continuous super-computer time and required in excess of 75 terabytes of storage. The simulations occupy more than twice the storage space of the modelling output considered by the IPCC in compiling its Fourth Assessment Report. They contain more than 140 variables recorded every six hours.

The project connected more than 200 scientists to the new climate information through 50 complementary projects across Tasmania and the rest of Australia. Strategic links were made with similar projects world-wide.

The research is the Tasmanian Government’s most important source of climate change data at a local scale. The project is also remarkable for its high level of engagement with the people who will use the results. Businesses, farmers and other industries, local government and policymakers helped to guide the research from the start.

A new project began in 2011 using Climate Futures climate model projections to assess bushfire risk in a changing climate. Tasmania’s emergency services, fire agencies and government bodies will guide the project to ensure that it delivers the information they need. The project is called Bushfire Risk with a Changing Climate and is funded through the State Emergency Service from the Federal Government’s National Disaster Resilience Program.

The Climate Futures project is also part of the Landscapes and Policy (LAP) hub, which is funded through the National Environmental Research Program. Climate Futures coordinates with seven national projects within the LAP hub to provide information and datasets to assist research into the impact of climate change on ecosystems and landscapes in two study regions - the Tasmanian Midlands and the Australian Alps.

Highlights of the Climate Futures project:

• A suite of technical and summary reports were produced.

• 29 local government area climate profiles were published and distributed to local councils. The climate profiles summarise the Climate Futures for Tasmania results relevant to each of Tasmania’s 29 local government areas.

CLIMATE FUTURES FOR TASMANIA

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• A selection of Climate Futures for Tasmania data (mean temperature change, annual rainfall change, pan evaporation change and relative humidity change) was made available on the Land Information System Tasmania (LISTmap), enabling users to view and create maps using the Climate Futures datasets.

• All the modelled projections from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project are available to researchers through the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing (TPAC) portal.

• The Climate Futures LiDAR Dataset has provided the first high-resolution digital terrain mapping data covering vulnerable Tasmanian coastlines.

• Apart from the five core component technical reports, between 2008 and 2011 the project held 14 workshops, five exhibitions at science conferences, gave 54 briefings to Federal, State and local government, published five research papers with 14 research papers in preparation, and informed over 65 different stakeholders during its 230-plus meetings and briefings. In excess of 75 organisations are using and presenting results based on Climate Futures for Tasmania project outputs.

The Climate Futures for Tasmania project was made possible with the funding and research support of a consortium of state and national partners:

For the full reports and user-friendly summaries: http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange/adapting/climate_futures/climate_futures_for_tasmania_reports

The following technical reports and companion summaries are available from www.acecrc.org.au:

Climate Modelling technical report and summary

General Climate Impacts technical report and summary

Impacts on Agriculture technical report and summary

Water and Catchments technical report and summary

Extreme Events technical report and summary

Extreme Tide and Sea-Level Events technical report


Onion crop, Tasmania. Farmers are among the end users of fine-scale climate research from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project. © David Russell (UTAS)

From Government:

Climate Futures for Tasmania reports have provided the foundation for more than 60 complementary projects in climate change science, climate change impacts and adaptation to be undertaken in Tasmania.

Climate Futures for Tasmania reports have been used to develop future climate profiles at the municipal level that are forming the basis for adaptation planning at the municipal and regional level.

Climate Futures for Tasmania reports are being used by the Tasmanian Government to develop adaptation responses to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and natural values to climate change.

Gordon River Dam, southwest Tasmania. The Gordon was one of the rivers modelled for the Climate Futures for Tasmania Water and Catchments Technical Report. © Hydro Tasmania

CLIMATE FUTURES FOR TASMANIA: TESTIMONIALS FROM END USERS

From industry:

The Regional Councils Climate Adaptation Project has used Climate Futures for Tasmania reports and the ACE sea level rise decision support tool as a basis for risk management.

The Climate Futures LiDAR dataset was used during the development, testing and marketing phases of Eonfusion, a 4D visualisation software program.

The Climate Futures for Tasmania outcomes have been used by the Tasmanian Farmers and Graziers Association to build resilience into farming decision-making and to increase awareness and understanding of options for future farm diversification.

Wheat crop near Campbelltown, Tasmania. © David Russell (TIA)

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The outputs from ACE’s research are being delivered to a variety of end users such as policymakers, other climate scientists, resource managers and infrastructure planners. An important aspect is the delivery of research outputs to international agencies, such as the IPCC and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR).

ACE generally adopts an open access policy to its intellectual property, which complies with Australia’s obligations under the Antarctic Treaty and encourages collaboration.

As well as publications in peer-reviewed journals, ACE has developed plain-English publications for a broader audience including policymakers. The publications include Position Analyses, Report Cards, www.acecrc.org.au, and the quarterly e-newsletter ACE News.

ACE communicates with key stakeholders and the community through seminars, workshops and face-to-face meetings. ACE CRC scientists are a driving force in the Climate Conversations, a series of community forums designed to encourage a conversation between scientists and the public about climate change. ACE runs vocational courses on sea-level rise and in the use of its sea-level rise calculator, Canute.

ACE also offers scientific and technical consulting services and supports its commercial participants in developing their consulting services around climate change and sea-level rise.

Major publications included:

• Publication in high profile, peer-reviewed journals (highlights, page 46).

• Publication and distribution of Report Card: Southern Ocean Acidification.

• Publication and distribution of Position Analysis Climate Change and the Southern Ocean.

• Technical Reports: Government coastal planning responses to rising sea levels, Australia and overseas; suite of Climate Futures for Tasmania technical reports and summaries (see page 37).

Major communications activities of 2011 included:

• Complete revision and relaunch of the ACE CRC website, www.acecrc.org.au.

• Conference booths at the International Climate Change Adaptation Conference on the Gold Coast and Greenhouse 2011 in Cairns.

• Hosting ‘Towards IPCC 5 – Tasmania’s contribution to climate change science’,

a briefing for Tasmanian Federal and State Members of Parliament.

• Regular face-to-face discussions with government representatives from DCCEE, DAFF, DIISRTE and DSEWPAC.

• Presentations to industry including Telstra, Geoscience Australia, Insurance Council of Australia, Westpac, QANTAS, Origin Energy, Kathmandu, Visy, Bendigo Bank, mecu, GE and The Climate Institute.

• ACE News was distributed in June, September and December.

RESEARCH UTILISATION

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ACE’s role in the IPPCDuring 2011 Dr Steve Rintoul and Professor Nathan Bindoff were coordinating lead authors and Dr Ian Allison was a lead author for Working Group 1 of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Dr Andrew Constable worked with the IPCC AR5 committee to ensure that the Antarctic region would be adequately included in the deliberations of Working Group 2. ACE CRC research on the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems will be included in chapter 28 of Working Group 2.

Below: As Tasmania’s Minister for Climate Change the Hon Nick McKim MP visited the ACE CRC to be briefed by scientists. © Miranda Harman (ACE CRC)


Top: SME participants Clive Attwater (SGS Economics and Planning) and Sven Rand (pitt&sherry) during field work for a sea-level rise related consulting project at St Helens on the east coast of Tasmania. © pitt&sherry

Right: Media with Climate Futures for Tasmania analyst Michael Grose at the launch of the Extreme Events Technical Report. © Miranda Harman (ACE CRC)

Industry EngagementThere was active engagement with the four small-medium enterprise (SME) participants in the ACE CRC Program.

pitt&sherry Managing Director, Mr John Pitt, holds an ACE Board position as the representative of the commercial and SME participants. In conjunction with pitt&sherry and SGS Economics and Planning, ACE participated in a number of tenders for climate change-related consulting projects and completed a number of collaborative consulting projects for government. The software company Myriax is collaborating closely with the Ecosystems Program to develop and utilise their 4D-visualisation software for the presentation of ecosystems modelling and risk assessment results.

The ACE sea-level rise impacts team has further developed the sea level calculator Canute, a web-based tool which assists in coastal planning and infrastructure maintenance decisions. An online vocational training course has been implemented to support Canute’s users. This has increased the accessibility of the web tool to a broader market, including environmental and engineering consulting firms.

ACE continues to focus on interacting with SMEs through peak industry bodies such as the Association of Australian Ports and Marine Authorities, the Australian Local Government Association, Engineers Australia and the Planning Institute of Australia. The primary topic of interest is the sea-level rise web tool. ACE will intensify this interaction in 2012 when it upgrades the functionality and re-launches the web tool.

CollaborationACE collaborates with 85 organisations. Of these, 30 are Australian, two are from New Zealand, seven are Asian, 21 North American and one South American. The remaining 24 are European. Among the 30 domestic collaborations, six are industry/private sector, eight are Australian Government institutions, three are State Government institutions and 10 are universities. Among the 55 international collaborations, 30 are universities and 23 are other research institutions.


EDUCATIONThe ACE education program trains the next generation of scientists as well as coordinating a range of professional development courses for end users and staff.

The student program is coordinated by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) at the University of Tasmania. An Education and Training Committee was formed in 2010 between IMAS and ACE. Discussions have centred on recruitment of PhD students and raising the profile of ACE CRC and IMAS research projects to attract prospective students. Students study a range of topics relevant to Antarctica, the Southern Ocean and climate change.

In the reporting period eight PhD students commenced, there were 11 PhDs completed and 34 PhD students continued their studies on ACE-related research.

Five Honours students graduated in the reporting period. Two of these have enrolled in a PhD, two are now employed by UTAS and one found work elsewhere.

A total of 39 ACE CRC staff are involved in supervising students. This number includes new ACE postdoctoral staff taking on supervision, and in many cases acting as principal drivers of a higher degree or Honours project.

Training courses for end-users and professional development

During the reporting period ACE hosted a range of end-user forums, symposia and workshops. These were both online, for example training in the Canute sea level calculator, and face to face, for example the Climate Conversations run by scientists. ACE participated in Science Week events in Canberra and individual scientists visited local schools in Tasmania to talk about their research. In August 2011 ACE hosted a symposium to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the declaration of the Australian Antarctic Territory.

Climate Futures for Tasmania researcher Dr Greg Holz explains his work to stakeholders. © ACE CRC

Meet one of our students Sarah Ugalde grew up in the orchards of Mooroopna, a Victorian country town, and never imagined a future in Antarctic science. She moved to the ACT to study at University of Canberra, where she undertook a Bachelor of Environmental Science. Developing a taste for practical science, she undertook a range of challenging and unique university and volunteer projects, including work with inland carpet pythons, endangered grassland earless dragons, wolf spiders, arboreal marsupials, native rats and marine invertebrates. During her undergraduate studies, she was accepted for a cross-institutional program with University of Tasmania, enabling her to major in Antarctic science. Still dabbling in the terrestrial sciences, she completed Honours through the Forestry CRC in Hobart, where she was inspired by the CRC’s scientific approach and opportunities. Considering a PhD project, the ACE CRC was at the top of the list. Sarah accepted a project working with Antarctic sea-ice algae, investigating primary production and carbon allocation. Her affiliation with the ACE CRC has more than met her expectations of scientific unity and collaboration, allowing her to work closely with the Australian Antarctic Division and the Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies at UTAS.

In late 2011 Sarah was part of a field expedition to Turtle Rock (neighbouring Scott’s hut) with Antarctica New Zealand. She is looking forward to participating in the second Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems eXperiment (SIPEX) voyage, which will provide exceptional field and networking opportunities.

“I am really grateful for my experiences with the ACE CRC. It is such a rare opportunity to work so closely with some of the world’s top scientists in a multi-disciplinary institution. It has allowed access to so many research and networking opportunities through travel, field work, and laboratory experiments. If I had my time again, I would definitely be doing exactly this.”

Sarah Ugalde PhD student

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Church JA, White NJ, Konikow LF, Domingues CM, Cogley JG, Rignot E, Gregory JM, van den Broeke MR, Monaghan AJ and Velicogna I (2011), ‘Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008’, Geophysical Research Letters 38 (18): L18601.This study demonstrates for the first time that the global sea-level budget can now be closed: the sum of the individual contributions agrees with the observed rate of sea level rise, within the uncertainties. This advance was possible because of new assessments of global ocean heat content derived by ACE and CSIRO colleagues.

Helm KP, Bindoff NL and Church JA (2011), ‘Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean’, Geophysical Research Letters 38 (23). This is the first global study of changes in ocean oxygen content. The research shows that oxygen levels are decreasing in many parts of the ocean, likely reflecting changes in stratification and ventilation as the surface layers of the ocean warm and change in salinity.

Hunter J (2011), ‘A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise’, Climatic Change: 1-14. This paper describes a technique for deriving an allowance for sea-level rise, taking into account the uncertainties of both present storm surges and projections of future sea level (an “allowance” for sea-level rise is the vertical distance that a coastal asset needs to be raised under a rising sea-level, so that the present likelihood of flooding does not increase). The method may be used in the definition of building codes, in coastal planning and in assessing the risk to coastal assets. Here it is applied to a set of 198 locations with near-global coverage.

Kawaguchi S, Kurihara H, King R, Hale L, Berli T, Robinson JP, Ishida A, Wakita M, Virtue P, Nicol S and Ishimatsu A (2011), ‘Will krill fare well under Southern Ocean acidification?’, Biology Letters 7 (2): 288-291. This paper is the first to demonstrate that reduced pH of sea water may negatively impact on the larval development of Antarctic krill, which will potentially reduce the productivity of populations. It provides the foundation for current work among ACE partners combining assessments of regional changes in Southern Ocean pH over the next 100 years with assessments of potential disruption of the life cycle of krill. This assessment will then provide a prognosis for range contraction of Antarctic krill over the next 100 years.

Tagliabue A, Bopp L, Dutay JC, Bowie AR, Chever F, Jean-Baptiste P, Bucciarelli E, Lannuzel D, Remenyi T, Sarthou G, Aumont O, Gehlen M and Jeandel C (2010). ‘Hydrothermal contribution to the oceanic dissolved iron inventory’, Nature Geoscience 3 (4): 252-256. Lack of iron limits phytoplankton production, and thus whole of ecosystem productivity, throughout vast regions of the global ocean. This paper makes the first estimate of the global role of seafloor hydrothermal sources of iron to the relief of this limitation, finding that 5-30% of the iron upwelled to surface waters in the Southern Ocean (the largest region of iron limitation) derives from deep hydrothermal sources associated with seafloor volcanism. Thus the work provides new understanding of the earth system linkages that combine to control ocean productivity and its contribution to global climate-carbon cycle interactions.

Thresher RE, Tilbrook B, Fallon S, Wilson NC and Adkins J (2011), ‘Limited effects of chronic low carbonate saturation levels on the distribution, growth and skeletal chemistry of deep-sea corals and other seamount megabenthos’, Marine Ecology Progress Series 442: 87-99. Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and lowers the saturation levels of carbonate minerals. Chemical principles suggest this should negatively impact calcifying organisms such as corals, forams, pteropods and coccolithophores. This work examines the distribution of deep-dwelling heterotrophic corals and finds the pleasant surprise that many persist in acidified waters, suggesting at least some species have mechanisms that provide resilience to ocean acidification, although energy costs to the organisms are not yet known.

MAJOR ACE CRC PUBLICATIONS 2011

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Young DA, Wright AP, Roberts JL, Warner RC, Young NW, Greenbaum JS, Schroeder DM, Holt JW, Sugden DE, Blankenship DD, van Ommen TD and Siegert MJ (2011), ‘A dynamic early East Antarctic Ice Sheet suggested by ice-covered fjord landscapes’, Nature 474 (7349): 72-75. Results from the ACE-funded ICECAP aerogeophysical surveys detect fjords buried deep under ice in the Australian Antarctic Territory. The orientations of these features show varying configurations of the Antarctic ice-sheet between 14 and 34 million years ago. They also reveal for the first time the detail of the underlying bedrock in this region. The surveys show much more extensive regions where ice rests on bedrock below sea level. This potentially makes the ice sheet more vulnerable to melting and accelerated flow in a warming climate.

A full list of publications is available at www.acecrc.org.au/publications

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