abrfc dhm experiences
DESCRIPTION
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES. Bill Lawrence – DOH & Mike Pierce – Sr. Hydro. ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES. Overview Brief summary of current set-up Calibration work – Mike Pierce Verification - Bill Lawrence. ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES. Using prototype version since 2003 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Bill Lawrence – DOH & Mike Pierce – Sr. Hydro.
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
OverviewOverview
Brief summary of current set-upBrief summary of current set-up Calibration work – Mike PierceCalibration work – Mike Pierce Verification - Bill LawrenceVerification - Bill Lawrence
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
• Using prototype version since 2003Using prototype version since 2003
• Display the DHM time-series in IFPDisplay the DHM time-series in IFP with the lumped model - 2004with the lumped model - 2004
• 21 sites currently defined – 4 not in21 sites currently defined – 4 not in operational 6hr lumped modeloperational 6hr lumped model
• Using Research Distributed Hydrologic Using Research Distributed Hydrologic Model for Gridded FFG - 2006Model for Gridded FFG - 2006
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES21 DHM Basins Defined
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
IFP Example
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
General observations – All Sites General observations – All Sites
• In many cases - too much volumeIn many cases - too much volume - no modifications?- no modifications? - monthly PE- monthly PE
• Performs better when precipitationPerforms better when precipitation is concentrated near the bottom ofis concentrated near the bottom of the basin.the basin. - as well as or better then lumped in - as well as or better then lumped in some casessome cases
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
• Began archiving hourly data for 21 sites Began archiving hourly data for 21 sites
in 2004in 2004
• Verification software slow down – Verification software slow down –
had to run overnighthad to run overnight
• Dropped number of archived sitesDropped number of archived sites
to six – for nowto six – for now
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
• Focus on calibration and verificationFocus on calibration and verification
• Completed calibration comparison Completed calibration comparison forfor
Blue on the Blue River in March 07Blue on the Blue River in March 07
• Compared 7 different calibrationsCompared 7 different calibrations
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Calibrations compared:Calibrations compared:
1.1. Current OHD calibration – DMIP1Current OHD calibration – DMIP1
2.2. Eric Anderson #1Eric Anderson #1
3.3. Eric Anderson #2Eric Anderson #2
4.4. Eric #1 lumpedEric #1 lumped
5.5. Eric #2 lumpedEric #2 lumped
6.6. A priori - OHDA priori - OHD
7.7. MDP manual calibration – adjusted routingMDP manual calibration – adjusted routing
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
• Used historical record from 1996 to 2004.Used historical record from 1996 to 2004.
• 12 high flow events – diverse gridded 12 high flow events – diverse gridded pcpn, upper, lower, middle of basin.pcpn, upper, lower, middle of basin.
• Used XDMS to display time-seriesUsed XDMS to display time-series
• Looking for trendsLooking for trends
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
RESULTS:RESULTS:
• Random - no clear winner – noRandom - no clear winner – no
apparent trendsapparent trends
• Some evidence of improvement by Some evidence of improvement by
adjusting the routing parametersadjusting the routing parameters
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
• Overall statistical results:Overall statistical results:
CCalibration % bias Corr. Coeff.alibration % bias Corr. Coeff. OHD 23 .81OHD 23 .81 Eric #1 56 .74Eric #1 56 .74 Eric #2 26 .77Eric #2 26 .77 Eric #1 lumped 26 .82Eric #1 lumped 26 .82 Eric #2 lumped 11 .85Eric #2 lumped 11 .85 a priori 51 .78a priori 51 .78 MDP manual 21 .85MDP manual 21 .85
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Corbin KS on Chikaskia River – April 07Corbin KS on Chikaskia River – April 07
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Calibrations compared:Calibrations compared:
1.1. Current calibration - ABRFCCurrent calibration - ABRFC
2.2. 6hr lumped - operational6hr lumped - operational
3.3. Scaled to 6hr lumpedScaled to 6hr lumped
4.4. A priori - OHDA priori - OHD
5.5. MDP manual calibration – adjusted MDP manual calibration – adjusted routingrouting
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Results:Results:
• MDP manual calibration performed best MDP manual calibration performed best overalloverall
- 17 out of 20 events.- 17 out of 20 events.
- calibration of routing parameters improved- calibration of routing parameters improved
simulationsimulation
• 6-hr lumped parameters performed well6-hr lumped parameters performed well
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Overall statistical results:Overall statistical results:
Calibration % bias Corr. Coeff.Calibration % bias Corr. Coeff.
A priori -65 .82A priori -65 .82
6hr lumped -19 .826hr lumped -19 .82
Scaled -47 .83Scaled -47 .83
Current -24 .8 Current -24 .8 MDP manual -4 .87MDP manual -4 .87
ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES
Some ObservationsSome Observations• Need better calibration methods and toolsNeed better calibration methods and tools
- Automated methods?- Automated methods?
- Manual calibration appears to be- Manual calibration appears to be
best method currentlybest method currently
• Calibration of routing parameters isCalibration of routing parameters is
important – future work?important – future work?