North Dakota Report

AASC 2012July 9-12

Destin, FL

Since Last Time9/11/2011

CLIMBIT

Since Last TimeNDSU Wins FCS National Championship

NDSU-Sam Houston StateFCS Championship. Jan. 7, 2012,

Frisco, TX

Since Last TimeND Wins the CoCoRaHS CupAgain

Since Last TimeHelmet use for tornado safety is finally catching on.

CDC Statement on Helmets and Tornadoes“…helmets should be considered just one part of their overall home tornado preparedness kit…”

Since Last TimeND Participating in Reference ET Observations.

North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) Mobile

NDAWN MOBILE VERIZON WIRELESS25MB/$15 Plan (Includes $5 per station to be in the shared plan)

Average Monthly Usage per Station = 5MB @ 10-min frequency

NDAWN Mobile

Corn GDD Climatologyhttp://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/GDD/

Data from Northdakota 15 21:16 Thursday, June 10, 2010 -------------------------------- station=FARGO --------------------------------- The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Annual Annual Number of Observations Read 128 Number of Observations Used 128 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 1 1962058 1962058 29.23 <.0001 Error 126 8458706 67133 Corrected Total 127 10420764 Root MSE 259.09957 R-Square 0.1883 Dependent Mean 2288.53125 Adj R-Sq 0.1818 Coeff Var 11.32165 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Label DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept Intercept 1 -4227.04370 1205.42991 -3.51 0.0006 Year Year 1 3.35077 0.61981 5.41 <.0001

Corn GDD in Fargo, ND increased 33.5

heat units per decade since 1890

There are 335 additional heat units available today for corn development

compared to 100 years ago.

That is 16% of total heat units

necessary to mature a corn plant

in Fargo.

Publications on GDDBadh, A., F. A. Akyüz, 2010: Evaluating Trend Changes in Annual Accumulated Growing Degree Days for Corn Grown in the Northern Plains, United States of America. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp.127-136.

Badh, A., and Akyüz, 2010: A. Studying Climate Change and Precipitation Trends for North Dakota, United States. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, 2010, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp.97-108.

Badh, A., F. A. Akyüz, G. Vocke, B. Mullins, 2009: Impact of Climate Change on the Growing Seasons in Select Cities of North Dakota, United States of America. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses. V.1, Number 1, 105-117.

How to use “Trace” in tie-breaking procedure in

Precipitation

 Rank

March Snowfall Value (in) Year

1 0.0 2010, 1961, 19054 0.1 1910

Extreme Lowest Monthly Total Snowfall Ranking for March in Fargo, ND(Records from 1881 through 2011 from ACIS)

March 1905

DayPrecipitatio

n Snowfall1 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 T T7 T T8 0.02 09 T T10 T T11 0 012 0 013 0 014 0 015 T 016 0 017 0.04 018 0.04 019 0 020 0.02 T21 T T22 0.06 023 T 024 T 025 0 026 0 027 0.3 028 0.02 029 0 030 0 031 0 0Sum 0.50 0

March 1905, Fargo, ND

5 Trace Events in 1905

March 1961Day Precipitation Snowfall1 T 02 0.01 03 0 04 T T5 T T6 0 07 0 08 T T9 0 010 0 011 0 012 0 013 0 014 0 015 0 016 0 017 T 018 0 019 0 020 0 021 0.01 T22 T T23 0 024 0 025 0.02 026 0.34 T27 T T28 T T29 T T30 0 031 T TSum 0.38 0

March 1961, Fargo, ND

10 Trace Events in 1961

March 2010, Fargo, NDMarch 2010

Day Precipitation Snowfall1 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0.03 07 0 08 0.01 09 0.04 010 0.65 011 0.51 012 0.07 013 0 014 0.02 015 0.08 016 0 017 0 018 0 019 T T20 0 021 0 022 0 023 0 024 T 025 0 026 0 027 T T28 0 029 0 030 0 031 0 0Sum 1.41 0

2 Trace Events in 2010

Manual Procedure1.Count number of un-measurable snowfall events

(Trace) among the months that had no measurable snow events.

2.Give higher ranking for the months that produced the least number of “Trace” events

 Rank

March Snowfall Value (in) Year

1 0.02010, 1961, 1905

4 0.1 1910

Ranking Prior to the ManualProcedure

 Rank

March Snowfall Value (in) Year

1 0.0 20102 0.0 19053 0.0 19614 0.1 1910

Ranking After the ManualProcedure

Automated ProcedureWe developed a proper tie-breaker procedure:

1. to minimize climatic ties, and2. to properly identify an extreme precipitation event

in a dataset where the record event may seem to be hidden among the other events sharing the same magnitude before the traces are properly evaluated.

MethodAssign “T” a numerical value such that it

a. Would not change the magnitude of the precipitation

b. Would only help automate manual procedure to incorporate “T” events into ranking calculations

T=10−5

Method

Row #

Date Precipitation(in)

Precipitation(in)

AccumulatedPrecipitation

1 Jan 1 T 0.00001 0.00001

2 Jan 2 T 0.00001 0.00002

. . . . .

365 December 31

T 0.00001 0.00365

Annual Total 0.00 0.00 0.00

RecommendationClimate Data Management Systems such as ACIS may be programmed to retain the “T” for display but treat it as a numerical value of 0.00001 for calculation purposes.

OutputA publication submission to JSC (4/12/2012) by a sub-group within NDST

Adnan Akyüz, SC Karsten Shein, NCDC Mike Asmus, NWS