A Technological Approach to the Borders

Evangelos PetropoulosCSIR Defence Peace Safety and Security (DPSS)

A Technological Approach to the Borders

• Defining the problem we seek to solve– Government s role– Military concepts– Talking to Risks– Developing Effective Solutions subject to constraints

• Developing Solutions– What is Technology– A process for developing solutions– The role of Modeling, Simulation and Experimentation– Technology at different levels in the Systems Hierarchy

The Border Safeguarding Problem

• Government Role and Intent– Government sets policy – enabler and constraint– Government Intent must be interpreted into military strategy– Can be difficult to measure – must develop appropriate

Measures Of Effectiveness (MOE’s)

• Military concepts– SANDF must interpret the government intent and develop a strategy

that will define a set of missions that meet that intent. – Military Concepts are developed to guide the planning of military

campaigns to perform border control within the guidelines of the strategy.

– The concepts developed must address all the risks that exist at the border. Only then can a suitable solution be developed that will address all the risks.

Border Safeguarding ProblemTalking to Risks

– All risks must be analyzed to get a thorough understanding of the problem – Necessary to develop a complete set of requirements– Some risks may necessitate a complete change of operation– Risks Change over time

CRIME HEALTH

SECURITY ECONOMIC

RISKS

Epidemic

Refugees

Support to Department

of Health

Humanitarian Aid

AGRICULTURE

Border Safeguarding ProblemDeveloping Effective Solutions subject to constraints

• The SANDF must structure, budget and develop capabilities to execute the full spectrum of border safeguarding and SANDF military strategy, and force employment planning must be adjusted to meet this priority

• Limited Budget constrains the selection of available solutions - solutions must be feasible

• Many existing solutions were designed for conventional war• Systems must be adapted to be effective in the role of

Border Control– Command & Control, Intelligence, Surveillance, Weapons,

Transport systems used for conventional war may not be suited to border safeguarding.

What is Technology ?

•Tools (including equipment & infrastructure) with necessary skills and knowledge together with a process, in a specific domain, that can be applied to researching aspects of that domain of knowledge, for the development of new knowledge and/or means, that can provide solutions to problems and improve existing means or to meet requirements

Technology is:

6

Solutions Supported by TechnologyProcess for developing solutions

• Mission Driven– The joint/interdepartmental employment of forces to enforce

state authority in the land, air and maritime border domains (within identified mission areas) in support of national security objectives

• A process of analysis and synthesis supported by technologies

• Technology exists at different levels in the system hierarchy

Modelling & Simulation and Experimentation

• M&S is a means of managing complexity– Military Systems need more than thought experiments– Can capture and test behavior of large complex systems– Anchored in real operational environments and scenarios– Can provide quantitative measures for decision making– Faster and less expensive than running full scale field trials– Can test new and emerging technologies

• Experiments test competing hypotheses– By using the scientific method a series of experiments are designed

to arbitrate between competing models or hypotheses.– For Military Experimentation a process has been developed that

incorporates methods from Systems Engineering to design the experiments that are the competing models or system architectures

– Experiments can be Simulated, Lab, or Live Field trials– Opportunity to integrate and evaluate new technologies

Modelling & Simulation and Experimentation

• M&S and Experimentation is used to– Develop Concepts of Operations

• In this case the border safeguarding concept– Develop Concept Architectures

• The different solutions we wish to test– Early Validation of Concepts of Operation and Concept Solutions

• ConOps can be evaluated to arbitrate between different options– Effectiveness is measured, ROM costs

• Once a concept has been selected the designed solution can be evaluated

– Measures of performance, more detailed cost– Establishes requirements for systems, identifies gaps, guides technology

research

Solutions Supported by Technology

• Implementing the Solution– Implementation Plan, establishes timeframe for readiness levels– Perform the border Safeguarding operation– Evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation– Feedback what we learn during operations

• Technology Roadmaps– Define the Technology Areas– Define what technologies are required at what

Technology Readiness Level and When– Directed Research, outputs used in higher order system

Solutions Supported by TechnologyProcess Overview

MISSIONBOARDER

SAFEGUARDING

DEVELOP (and Refine)CONCEPT OF OPERATION

EVALUATE CONCEPT OF OPERATION

DEVELOP CONCEPT SOLUTION

(ARCHITECTURE)

EVALUATE CONCEPT SOLUTION

RISK ANALYSIS

Technology &New Technologies

NEW DOCTRINE

M & S

EXPERIMENTATION

IMPLEMENT SOLUTIONSANDF/SAPS/DEPARTMENTS

PERFORM BSGEVALUATE

IMPLEMENTED SOLUTION

· GOVERNMENT INTENT

· JFE Strategy

· Policies· Military

Concepts· Legal· Governan

ce

M & S

EXPERIMENTATION

Input to

LESSONS LEARNT

Solutions Supported by TechnologyTechnology Roadmaps

Evolving/ChangingOperations

Time

Modelling & Simulation and Experimentation

Coy HQ

Coy HQ

Mission Area HQ

Plt HQ

Plt HQ

Plt HQ

PoE

Status of M&S

• Agent Based M&S– Initial system elements integrated and exhibiting expected behavior– Can test different configurations

• Situational awareness, weather, time of day …– Can inject different types of threats

• Stolen vehicles • Incursions on foot

– Monte Carlo Simulation – fancy way of saying we generate random values for variables and then test what happens.

• Next phase– Enhance models to obtain higher fidelity

• Add terrain effects, foliage• Add a cost model• Add new elements, new and existing technologies• Answer a specific question

Modelling & Simulation and Experimentation

Conclusions

• We have developed an integrated Process• Supported by Tools, (equipment, infrastructure)• CSIR has some skills and knowledge to support

the processes – other skills are needed– Analysts, Military experience, Gov Departments

• Can provide Evidence Based Decision Support• There is Technology at all levels that must be

utilized – Ready Technology Base• Top down and Bottom up approach must be used

in conjunction to provide effective long term solutions

Where to from here

• Invite to participate and collaborate– By providing information

• Threat data, e.g. stolen vehicles, crime stats, health• Platform or System data, integration into M&S• Providing real time data, stolen vehicles, info push to SANDF• Intelligence gathering – from communities, SAPS• Analysis - Future trends, political, social, economic

– Joining the Border Safeguarding Forum• Started in DPSS to co-ordinate activities within DPSS• Intended to share information and knowledge to reduce duplication• Platform for SANDF to address multiple research efforts• Intended to include industry and other institutes and organizations

Thank You

Questions?

More on Tops

• Top down is the analysis and decomposition of a system to gain insight into it’s compositional sub-systems thereby defining the requirements at that system level.

• Feasible technologies can be applied to provide a solution at that level.

• Technology scan or exhaustive search can yield feasible solutions

• Technology Research is required to mature a technology to suitable level - TRL

and more on Bottoms

• A Bottom-up approach is the piecing together of systems to give rise to grander systems, thus making the original systems, sub-systems of the emergent system.

• The emergent system is able to perform tasks that are not possible by each sub-system alone. This integrated new system requires new technology to develop.

• New or improved tools, skills or knowledge is gained in integrating the sub-systems.

Push and Pull

• Technology Push vs. Technology Pull• Basic research can result in invention, a new technology,

implementation of which results in innovation.• Innovation is also achieved through the improvement of

existing technology.• This innovation gives rise to a demand driven by the

improvement in addressing the market requirement