a tale of nine countries

8/8/2019 A Tale of Nine Countries

1/47

A Tale of Nine Countries


2/47

CH


4/47

A Pinch of Salt


5/47

A Tale of Nine CountriesTwo


6/47

Trends in Human DevelopmentIndex (HDI)

hina is ranked 92 | India is ranked 134


7/47

Life ExpectancyW h ith e r M e d icalA d va n ce s?


8/47

Adult Literacy


9/47

GDP- Rank 4


10/47

GDP Per Capita- Rank 128


11/47

Population GrowthMore hands to work or too many mouths to feed? Will

the demographic dividend help India catch up later?


12/47

Income Inequality-Skill biased technological change since 1991might be responsible for inequality levels

.remaining high in spite of high GDP growth


13/47

Gender Inequality


14/47

Nutrition

orld HungerIndex


15/47

Dependency


16/47

Environmental PerformanceIndex

:// . . /http epi yale edu Countries


17/47

To Cut a Long Story Short

South Asia has no country in the very highor high range of HDI. China is the highestranked at 92.

Reasons- Internal strife in Sri Lanka,

Afghanistan and Pakistan, relativelynascent growth in India and China,modest potential in Bhutan, Nepal,Bangladesh, and Maldives.

Within South Asia, India is ranked in the

bottom half of almost all parameters. Indias high GDP is not reflected in

development statistics.

The declining population growth rate inIndia should give her a demographicdividend in the long run.


18/47

To Cut a Short Story Shorter


19/47

Current State


20/47


21/47

Millennium DevelopmentGoals

No Millennium Development Goals

1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

2 Achieve universal primary education

3 Promote gender equality and empower women4 Reduce child mortality

5 Improve maternal health

6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

7 Ensure environmental sustainability

8 Develop a global partnership for development


22/47

Millennium Development GoalAudit


24/47

Status of the States

-ast trackn track -low track

ivide lesser-rban rural divide greater


25/47

Poverty Estimates- India


26/47

: , ,Targ et H alve b etw ee n 1 9 9 0 a n d 2 0 1 5 th ep ro p o rtio n

.o f p e o p le w h o su ffe r fro m h u n g e r

-n Track


27/47

Goal 2- Achieve Universal Primary

Education, , , ,nsure that by 2015 children everywhere boys and girls alikeill be able to completefull course of primary schooling

On Track Fast Track Slow Track

Himachal PradeshUttaranchalUttar PradeshRajasthanGujaratMaharashtraKarnatakaTamil NaduKerala

Andhra PradeshGoaWest BengalAssamArunachal Pradesh

Madhya PradeshChhatisgarhSikkimMizoramManipurTripuraMeghalaya

Jammu and KashmirPunjabHaryanaBiharJharkhandNagaland

-tatus of Indian States in 2004 05 on GERatio Female


28/47

Status of Indian States in 2004-05 on GER Ratio Male

On Track Fast Track Slow Track

Himachal PradeshUttaranchalUttar PradeshMaharashtra

KarnatakaTamil NaduKeralaAndhra PradeshGoaWest BengalAssamBiharJharkhand

Madhya PradeshChhatisgarhSikkimMizoram

ManipurTripuraMeghalayaOrissaArunachal Pradesh

Jammu and KashmirPunjabHaryanaNagaland


29/47

Status as of 2004-05


30/47

Goal 3- Promote GenderEquality and Empower Women

Participation of women in employment remains significantly less than,that of men and while the gap will reduce the disparity is highly

likely to remain till 2015

Literacy gender parity index of the youth, tends to exceed 1 by2015 suggesting attainment of gender parity in youth literacy by2015.

Trends show gender parity in primary and secondary levels ofeducations can be attained by 2015. Currently on track onprimary level enrolment:

In Primary education the Gender Parity Indices ratio (Gross EnrollmentRatio) has gone up from 0.76 in 199091 to 0.94 in 200607, insecondary education the increase is from 0.60 in 199091 to 0.82 in200607 and in higher education it is from 0.54 to 0.70 during thesame period.

:N ote,To stan d a rd ize th e e ffe cts o f th e p o p u la tion stru ctu re o f th e a p p rop ria te a g e g ro u p s th e

( ) ( )G en d er Parity In d ex G PI of th e G ro ss E n ro lm en t R a tio G E R for ea ch le ve lo f ed u cation. .is u sed ie ( ) = ( ) / ( ) .P I G E R G E R Fe m a le G E R M a le A GPI of 1 indicates parity between

.th e sexes or no g e n d e r d ispa rity A G PIth at va ries b etw ee n 0 a n d 1 typ ically m ea n s a;d isp a rity in fa vo u r o f m a le s w h e re a s a G PI g re a te r th a n 1 in d ica te s a d isp a rity in fa vo u r

:arget Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary, ,education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no.later than 2015


31/47


32/47

he ratio of literateomen to men in the ageroup 1524 years tends to,exceed 1 by 2015 implying

attainment of gender parity in.literacy by 2015

h a re o f W om e n in Wa ge Em pl o ym e nt I n t he N o n Agr ic u lt ur a l Se c to rThis measures the degree to which labour markets are open to women in

.industry and service sectors Women employment in the nonagricultural sector is likely to reach

% .only 24 by 2015 ( / / ) ( . %)In the Lok Sabha as on 27 1 2010 there are 59 10 8 women members

. / / ( . %)out of 545 As on 27 1 2010 there are 21 women members 9 0 out of.234 in the Rajya Sabha

. %.Overall percentage of lady parliamentarians stands at 10 3


33/47

Goal 4- Reduce ChildMortality

: , ,arget Reduce by two thirds between 1990 and 2015 the-nder five mortality rate . ,The observed U5MR for 200506 is 74 6 per 000 live births and the

.projected U5MR for 2015 is about 70 per 000 live births

( ) , ,6 States out of all the 30 States other than the UTs namely Goa, & , ,Haryana J K Kerala,Sikkim and Tamil Nadu are on fasttrack towards achieving their

.targets

, , , .Delhi Gujarat Himachal Pradesh and Tripura are just ontrack

.All other States tend are on a slow track

,The Infant Mortality Rate stood at 192 during 1971 114 in the year

.1980 and 57 in 2006 and 53 in 2008 A decline in IMR has been noticedboth for males and females during the period with it being more in case

.of males


34/47

-astTrack -n Track


35/47

Comparison of 2005-06 data with respect to 1992-93 data


36/47

Goal 5- Improve MaternalHealth: - , ,arget Reduce by three quarters between 1990 and 2015 theaternal mortality ratio

Target to achieve,109 per 100 000

live births by,2015 India tends

to fall short by

about 26 points asit tends to reachMMR of about 135

,per 100 000 live.births in 2015


37/47

-astTrack -ompletely OffTrack-arginally OffTrack

G l 5 I M l


38/47

Goal 5- Improve MaternalHealth

,For the other States shortfall from universal coverage tends to.vary from 10 to 70 percentage points

,Apart from these States the other States which are also laggingbehind and are likely to remain so in 2015 if they continue to

,move at the pace of their historic rates ( %),are Bihar 37 Madhya( %), ( %) ( %).Pradesh 39 Uttar Pradesh 37 and Uttarakhand 45

Going by the present rate of,coverage increase 7 States

,namely , ,Andhra Pradesh Goa, , ,Karnataka Kerala Punjab

Sikkim and Tamil Nadu arelikely to reach universal

coverage or close to it by.the year 2015

In terms of percentage ofdeliveries attended by skilledpersonnel projected

for the year 2015 on the basis of,existing trend 4 of the North

, ,East States namely

( %),Arunachal Pradesh 41 Assam ( %), ( %) 46 Meghalaya 32 and Nagaland ( %)34 are likely to finish far

.short of universality


39/47

The Rural Urban Gap

The rural urban gap in coverage in 200506 was of the order of36 percentage points, urban coverage (75.2%) being almostdouble of that of rural (39.1%).

The gap in 200708 has slightly narrowed down with ruralcoverage of 43.4% against urban coverage of 75.8%.

Not all the States, which are tending to attain more than 90%

coverage in deliveries attended by skilled personnel by 2015,has ruralurban gap in coverage less than 10 percentagepoints. The ruralurban gap is small in 200506 in the States ofGoa (0.8 percent point), Kerala (3.3 percent point) and TamilNadu (5.8 percent point).

The other States where overall attainment in 2015 is likely to


40/47

Goal 6- Combat HIV/AIDS,Malaria, and TB:arget Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the/pread of HIV AIDS/pread of HIV AIDS in India has shown a downward- . ( . %) ,rend from 2 73 million 0 45 PLHA in 2002 the. ( . %) .umber has declined to 2 31 million 0 34 by 2007

ajor Areas( )eclining ew Areas of Prevalence


41/47

, , , , , , , ,In states such as AP Gujarat Assam Karnataka MP Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland, . .Orissa Rajasthan etc no of deaths due to Malaria have decreased in 2009

.compared to that of 2006 ( . . )Though incidence has declined 1 74 in 2005 to 1 52 in 2009 but percentage of

.deaths hasn t declined

Goal 7 Ensure En ironmental


42/47

Goal 7- Ensure EnvironmentalSustainability:arget Integrate the principles of sustainable development

nto country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of.nvironmental resourcesecline in forestcover ncrease in forestcover

verall MarginalIncrease

l h f


43/47

Goal 7- Other PerformanceMeasures

CO2 emissions- 20% increase in per capita emissions from1990-2006. Still lower than developed countries, butbecause of population.

Ozone- Steady decline in CFC consumption

Energy Efficiency- Decrease in energy consumption / GDP

Drinking water- 2015 target achieved but sustainability is

an issue

Sanitation- Households without sanitation still over 50%

Slum-dwellers- India has 63% of South Asias slum

dwellers. Steady increase in absolute number of slum


44/47

Goal 8- Develop Global Partnership forDevelopment

India has emerged as one of the major development partner for promotingtechnoeconomic

and intellectual assistance to various developed countries.

India is keen to join with other countries to benefit the third countries, thiscooperation is likely to play a major role as finances and technology arecombined for optimizing returns on development expenditure.

The exponential growth of the Indian telecom sector has been mainly dueto the positive and corrective policies consistently pursued by theIndian Government.

The overall teledensity, which was only 0.67 per 100 population in 1991,had increased to cover almost 4 persons out of 10 of the countryspopulation in March 2009.

An increase in tele-density of 43.50 per hundred population was seen atthe end of September 2009 with rural teledensity of 18.46 and urbanteledensity of 102.79 per hundred population against a teledensity of

36.98 per hundred population at the end of March 2009 with rural teledensity of 15.11 and urban teledensity of 88.84 per hundredpopulation.

The increase in teledensity has been due to very high increase intelephone connections in the urban circles of most of the States. Thetele-density in the urban areas of the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar,Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan apart from the Telephone circles of

NorthEastI, Kolkata, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai is more than 100,which signifies more than one telephones per head in these areas.


45/47

ncrease in telephone density in India over theyears

Th l f i


46/47

Three lessons from comparisonof development experience

Delivery of public services- India has adysfunctional PDS and a corruptadministration which implies only afraction of development-oriented funds

are used for the intended purpose. Inclusive growth- China, despite its high

population, does better on mostdevelopment indicators because of thestage of its development process and

because the states philosophy is one ofredistribution of wealth.

Education-Could be a panacea for a lot ofdevelopment problems and will reduce theburden on the government.


47/47

Sources

The data on development indicatorshave been taken from World Banksand the UNs statistical tables.

The information on MDGs has beentaken from the MDG status reportpublished by the Central Statistical

Organization, GoI

a tale of nine countries

Documents