A STATISTICIAN COLLABORATING WITH A STATISTICIAN COLLABORATING WITH ECOLOGISTS:ECOLOGISTS:

from from EXAMPLES EXAMPLES

toto LESSONS LEARNED LESSONS LEARNED

N. Scott UrquhartSenior Research ScientistDepartment of StatisticsColorado State University

(June, 2004)

This research is funded by

U.S.EPA – Science To AchieveResults (STAR) ProgramCooperativeAgreement

# CR - 829095

This talk was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 This talk was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those of presenter and STARMAP, the Program he represents. EPA does not endorse solely those of presenter and STARMAP, the Program he represents. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this presentation.any products or commercial services mentioned in this presentation.

FUNDING ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

PATH FOR TODAYPATH FOR TODAY

Autobiographical Sketch

Some lessons learnedListed first, thenListed first, thenIllustrated from experienceIllustrated from experience

Questions are welcome at any time

BIOGRAPHY of NSUBIOGRAPHY of NSU

Grew up in agriculture in Western Colorado Very familiar with the business end ofVery familiar with the business end of

dairy cowsdairy cows Manual labor of 1950’s vintage agricultureManual labor of 1950’s vintage agriculture Motivation for higher education = HIGHMotivation for higher education = HIGH Came to CSU in 1958Came to CSU in 1958

Started in math, but considered civil engineering through first year

BIOGRAPHY - continuedBIOGRAPHY - continued

Statistical calculation of 1950’s was done on rotary calculators IBM electronic accounting equipmentIBM electronic accounting equipment Two computers in Colorado then!Two computers in Colorado then! Went to work in the CSU “ComputingWent to work in the CSU “Computing

Center” Spring, 1959 Center” Spring, 1959 Predecessor of both Computing Center and Stat Lab

Took the graduate statistical methods course Took the graduate statistical methods course the summer after my freshman year the summer after my freshman year Been at stat ever since

LESSON LEARNEDLESSON LEARNED

Your professional world will change in major ways during your career!Implication: Plan for it by learning how to think Implication: Plan for it by learning how to think

and learn. You will have to engage in learning and learn. You will have to engage in learning throughout your career.throughout your career.

COMPUTING TOOLS OF 1960COMPUTING TOOLS OF 1960

STATISTICAL COMPUTATION STATISTICAL COMPUTATION HAS HAS CHANGED! CHANGED!

STATISTICAL COMPUTATION STATISTICAL COMPUTATION HAS HAS CHANGED! --- SO WHAT?CHANGED! --- SO WHAT?

The more powerful of the two computers in Colorado at that point was an IBM 704 About 1985 I realized that the IBM XT on my About 1985 I realized that the IBM XT on my

deskdesk 10M (not gig) hard disk 8088 + 8087 = processors More power than the 704 0f 25 years earlier!

Implication = ?Implication = ? Be prepared for CHANGE Learn how to learn about all of ecology,

statistics, and mathematics

LESSONS LEARNEDLESSONS LEARNED

Your professional world will change in major ways during your career! Implication: Plan for it by learning how to think and Implication: Plan for it by learning how to think and

learn. You will have to engage in learning throughout learn. You will have to engage in learning throughout your career.your career.

Most easy problems have been solved. Relevant problems will require teamwork. Relevant problems will require teamwork.

Corollary: Ecologists, Statisticians and Mathematicians need to understand each others’ perspectivesEcologists – take collaborating statisticians and Ecologists – take collaborating statisticians and

mathematicians to the field with you. Statisticians and mathematicians to the field with you. Statisticians and mathematicians – GO! Invite yourself, if necessary.mathematicians – GO! Invite yourself, if necessary.

Statistics can make a difference Mathematics can, too, but my examples deal with Mathematics can, too, but my examples deal with

statisticsstatistics

ILLUSTRATIONSILLUSTRATIONS

Collaboration with plant ecophysiologists in Arctic Alaska= “North Slope”= “North Slope”

Collaboration with the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), Flagstaff, AZMonitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near Monitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near

the Colorado River in the Grand Canyonthe Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)My major collaboration for the past 14 yearsMy major collaboration for the past 14 years

ILLUSTRATIONSILLUSTRATIONS

Collaboration with plant ecophysiologists in Arctic Alaska= “North Slope”= “North Slope”

HELPING DESIGNING VEGETATION HELPING DESIGNING VEGETATION STUDIES IN ARCTICSTUDIES IN ARCTIC ALASKAALASKA

MAP OF ALASKAMAP OF ALASKA

VIEW FROM OUTSIDE - REFRIGERATED VIEW FROM OUTSIDE - REFRIGERATED ENTRANCEENTRANCE

IN THE TUNNELIN THE TUNNEL

AN OLD ICE WEDGEAN OLD ICE WEDGE

A SEGMENT OF A SEGMENT OF THE THE

TRANS-ALASKA TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINEPIPELINE

RESEARCH SITE AFTER JUNE SNOWRESEARCH SITE AFTER JUNE SNOW

TYPICAL “VALLEY” BOTTOM TYPICAL “VALLEY” BOTTOM (NOTE MOOSE IN CENTER)(NOTE MOOSE IN CENTER)

RR44D PROJECT ON ALASKA’SD PROJECT ON ALASKA’S“NORTH SLOPE”“NORTH SLOPE”

FUNDED BY DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY INCLUDED A STUDY ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES

OF PLANTSOF PLANTSWITH THE VIEW OF PREDICTING LIKELY WITH THE VIEW OF PREDICTING LIKELY

RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES, RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES, LIKE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OIL FIELDLIKE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OIL FIELD

MAJOR STUDY SITE = IMNAVIAT CREEK

GENERAL GOALS OF RGENERAL GOALS OF R44DD

DEVELOP ECOPHYSIOLOGY MODELS FOR PLANTS ON THE NORTH SLOPE TO SUPPORT MORE GENERAL MODELS TO TO SUPPORT MORE GENERAL MODELS TO

ALLOWALLOWEVALUATION OF LIKELY IMPACT OF EVALUATION OF LIKELY IMPACT OF

ENERGY-ENERGY-RELATED DEVELOPMENTRELATED DEVELOPMENT

NSU: ON-SITE EXPERIMENTAL AND SAMPLING NSU: ON-SITE EXPERIMENTAL AND SAMPLING DESIGNDESIGN FOR MANY STUDIES

RR44D PROJECT ON ALASKA’S D PROJECT ON ALASKA’S “NORTH SLOPE”“NORTH SLOPE”

- continued- continued

A SMALL QUESTION IN THE LARGER QUESTION:““WHAT MAKES STONE STRIPES”WHAT MAKES STONE STRIPES”

WATER SEEMS AVAILABLE IN VEGETATION BETWEEN STONE STRIPES

ELEVATION DOESN’T SEEM TO EXPLAINSTUDY: COMPARE PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESSES STUDY: COMPARE PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESSES

OF PLANTS IN STONE STRIPE TO THOSE OF OF PLANTS IN STONE STRIPE TO THOSE OF PLANTS IN IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLANTS IN PLANTS IN IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLANTS IN HEAVILY VEGETATED AREAHEAVILY VEGETATED AREA

?? HOW TO SELECT STUDY PLOTS ???? HOW TO SELECT STUDY PLOTS ??

HILLTOP AND NEARBY “STONE STRIPE”HILLTOP AND NEARBY “STONE STRIPE”

STONE STRIPES AND EQUIPMENT FOR STONE STRIPES AND EQUIPMENT FOR MEASURING PHOTOSYNTHESIS RATEMEASURING PHOTOSYNTHESIS RATE

POWER FOR MEASURING POWER FOR MEASURING PHOTOSYNTHESIS RATEPHOTOSYNTHESIS RATE

EQUIPMENT FOR MEASURING EQUIPMENT FOR MEASURING PHOTOSYNTHESIS RATEPHOTOSYNTHESIS RATE

RR44D PROJECT ON ALASKA’S D PROJECT ON ALASKA’S “NORTH SLOPE”“NORTH SLOPE”

- continued - 2- continued - 2

PREVIOUS YEAR STAKES HAD BEEN SET ON 100m CENTERS (Orange stakes in an earlier image.)

NSU HAD ARRANGED FOR THREE 100m TAPE MEASURES TO BE AVAILABLEAND TOOK ALONG A LONG LIST OF PAIRS OF AND TOOK ALONG A LONG LIST OF PAIRS OF

RANDOM DIGITS (00 - 99)RANDOM DIGITS (00 - 99)DEFINE THE POPULATION - AWAY FROM THE SITE

““WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SAY IN THE WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SAY IN THE INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPH OF THE PAPER YOU INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPH OF THE PAPER YOU PLAN TO WRITE ABOUT THIS?”PLAN TO WRITE ABOUT THIS?”

===> CRITERIA FOR WHETHER A SPECIFIC m2 PLOT WAS OR WAS NOT IN THE POPULATION

FIELD RESULT OF RANDOMLY FIELD RESULT OF RANDOMLY SELECTED PLOTSSELECTED PLOTS

“I WOULD NEVER HAVE PICKED THAT PLOT!!!!

BUT I SHOULD HAVE!!!”

THE ENTIRE CONTEXT OF INTEREST

HOMOGENEOUS CONTEXT SAMPLED

THE ENTIRE CONTEXT OF INTEREST

HOMOGENEOUS CONTEXT SAMPLED

THE ENTIRE CONTEXT OF INTEREST

HOMOGENEOUS CONTEXT SAMPLED

LESSON LEARNED - ILESSON LEARNED - I

OPINION: FOR MOST ECOLOGISTS, A “TYPICAL SITE” IS VARIABLE FOR THE FEATURE OF INTEREST, BUT AS HOMOGENEOUS AS POSSIBLE IN ALL OTHER WAYS===> MANY “ECOLOGICAL FACTS” ARE BASED ===> MANY “ECOLOGICAL FACTS” ARE BASED

ON VERY BIASED SUBPARTS OF THE SITUATION ON VERY BIASED SUBPARTS OF THE SITUATION OF INTERESTOF INTEREST

ILLUSTRATIONSILLUSTRATIONS

Collaboration with plant ecophysiologists in Arctic Alaska= “North Slope”= “North Slope”

Collaboration with the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), Flagstaff, AZMonitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near Monitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near

the Colorado River in the Grand Canyonthe Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

PROGRAM EVALUATION FOR THE PROGRAM EVALUATION FOR THE GRAND CANYON MONITORING AND GRAND CANYON MONITORING AND

RESEARCH CENTER (GCMRC)RESEARCH CENTER (GCMRC)

OBJECTIVE REVIEW THE TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH PROGRAMREVIEW THE TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH PROGRAM EXTERNAL PANELEXTERNAL PANEL

BIOLOGISTS & QUANTITATIVE SCIENTISTS ACADEMIC & FEDERAL EMPLOYEES

FROM GLEN CANYON DAM THROUGH GRAND FROM GLEN CANYON DAM THROUGH GRAND CANYON TO LAKE MEADECANYON TO LAKE MEADE

EVALUATION PANEL OF 8 EVALUATION PANEL OF 8 11-DAY RAFT TRIP THROUGH GRAND CANYON ACCOMPANIED BY 9 PEOPLE WHO HAD

CONDUCTEDRESEARCH ALONG THE RIVER

MAP OF THE GRAND CANYON AREAMAP OF THE GRAND CANYON AREA

THE PANEL + SUPPORT CREWTHE PANEL + SUPPORT CREW

THE “BEGINNING”THE “BEGINNING”

THE “REAL” START @ LEES FERRYTHE “REAL” START @ LEES FERRY

CAMPED LIKE ANY OTHER TRIPCAMPED LIKE ANY OTHER TRIP

WE SAW MAJESTIC SCENERYWE SAW MAJESTIC SCENERY

WENT THROUGH RAPIDS!!!!!!!!WENT THROUGH RAPIDS!!!!!!!!

THE END WAS IN SIGHTTHE END WAS IN SIGHT

@ THE END@ THE END

DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING A DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING A VEGETATION STUDY FOR GCMRCVEGETATION STUDY FOR GCMRC

OBJECTIVE - LOCATE AND LAY OUT VEGETATION TRANSECTS NSU SELECTED 100 POTENTIAL SITES NSU SELECTED 100 POTENTIAL SITES

RANDOMLY, SUBJECT TO SPATIAL RESTRICTIONS EACH POTENTIAL SITE WASEACH POTENTIAL SITE WAS

DETERMINED TO BE VERTICAL FACED, EFFECTIVELY UNVEGETATED, = NO TRANSECT

OR TRANSECT WAS LAID OUT AND DOCUMENTED RESULT:RESULT:

20 SITES TO BE REVISITED ANNUALLY 40 SITES TO BE VISITED ONLY ONCE IN THREE

YEARS

NO VEGETATION HERE!!!NO VEGETATION HERE!!!(MILE 135.2)(MILE 135.2)

ROCKY, BUT VEGETATED SITE @ 12.3ROCKY, BUT VEGETATED SITE @ 12.3

A VERY A VERY ROCKY SITE ROCKY SITE

@ 95.0@ 95.0

A SANDY A SANDY

SITE SITE @ 171.5 @ 171.5

THE “CREW” AFTER TWO WEEKS ON THE “CREW” AFTER TWO WEEKS ON THE RIVERTHE RIVER

LESSON LEARNED – IILESSON LEARNED – II

NSU has continued a low level of collaboration with GCMRCAfter a presentation to the Technical Advisory After a presentation to the Technical Advisory

Committee, he was asked, “Can this design be Committee, he was asked, “Can this design be used to estimate the amount of vegetation in the used to estimate the amount of vegetation in the region of interest?”region of interest?”

Answer was YES.Answer was YES.

Response from a long-time researcher in GCMRCResponse from a long-time researcher in GCMRCWhile developing the environmental impact

statement for a particular activity, we needed to estimate this quantity, but realized our data (gathered using traditional ecologists’ methods of selecting sites) didn’t support it. I’m glad we can now do that.

ILLUSTRATIONSILLUSTRATIONS

Collaboration with plant ecophysiologists in Arctic Alaska= “North Slope”= “North Slope”

Collaboration with the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), Flagstaff, AZMonitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near Monitoring of the terrestrial plant ecology near

the Colorado River in the Grand Canyonthe Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)My major collaboration for the past 14 yearsMy major collaboration for the past 14 years

DESIGNING STUDIES FOR EPA’s DESIGNING STUDIES FOR EPA’s ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND

ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (EMAP)ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (EMAP)

DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST

CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF ITIT CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT

WITH SPATIAL BALANCE CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL” LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT

NSU HAS BEEN VERY INVOLVED WITH PROCESSFOR EVALUATING “BUGS” IN STREAMS

Policy Questions Are Often Very Simple

“What do you mean you don’t know how many acid lakes there are?”

William Ruckelshaus - EPA Administrator - early 1980s

EMAP Lesson #1 - EMAP Lesson #1 - Not all “Experts” are expert in all thingsNot all “Experts” are expert in all things

“That’s a stupid question and one that you can’t possibly answer.”

Chair of NRC Indicator Panel

NAPAPNAPAPNational Surface Water SurveysNational Surface Water Surveys

NAPAP-NSWS Survey ResultsNAPAP-NSWS Survey ResultsAnswering Ruckelshaus’ QuestionAnswering Ruckelshaus’ Question

0 5 10 15

New England

Adirondacks

Northern Appalachians

Ridge/Blue Ridge

Upper Midwest

Aci

d S

ensi

tive

Reg

ion

s

Percent Acidic

NAPAP-NSWS Survey ResultsNAPAP-NSWS Survey ResultsAnswering Ruckelshaus’ QuestionAnswering Ruckelshaus’ Question

0 5 10 15

New England

Adirondacks

NorthernAppalachians

Ridge/Blue Ridge

Upper Midwest

Aci

d S

ensi

tive

Reg

ion

s

Percent Acidic

Prior

Current

““EcoSynthesis”EcoSynthesis”The The VeryVery Early Stages of EMAP Early Stages of EMAP

“There are plenty of data out there to know what is going on in the environment and what our major problems are. Do the hard work and synthesize it!”

Conventional Wisdom

EMAP Lesson # 2 EMAP Lesson # 2 Conventional wisdom is just that, Conventional wisdom is just that, conventional, and seldom leads to conventional, and seldom leads to

important breakthroughs.important breakthroughs.

The data were not there to provide unbiased estimates.

lack of appropriate indicators (e.g. forests) and lack of an appropriate design (e.g. inland aquatics).

We discover we will have to collect the data ourselves!

WHAT EFFECT HAS EMAP HAD?WHAT EFFECT HAS EMAP HAD?(A Statistically Defensible Approach)(A Statistically Defensible Approach)

Drastically altered the sorts of data and reports EPA’s Office of Water requires of States and Tribes.

Prompted substantial changes in certain parts of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) of the US Forest Service

Prompted substantial changes in outlook and cooperation of EPA’s Office of WaterEPA’s Office of Water National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration United States Geological ServiceUnited States Geological Service Relative to – what followsRelative to – what follows

The Clean Water Action Plan (1999)The Clean Water Action Plan (1999)

OW/NOAA/USGS requirement to assess the condition of aquatic resources

Stalemated – 1999 Conference Call

Invention of the National Coastal Condition Report

National Coastal Condition Report INational Coastal Condition Report I

Based on 1990-1996 data

Virginian, Carolinian, Louisianian, selected west coast sites

National Coastal AssessmentNational Coastal Assessment

1999 – EMAP Western Pilot Coastal

2000 – All coastal states in conterminous US and Puerto Rico

2001 – Includes Alaska and Hawaii (one time)

2002 – Includes Western Inter-tidal

2003 – Includes Western Offshore with NOAA

2004 – Includes SE Offshore with NOAA

THE BOTTOM LINETHE BOTTOM LINE

For this Statistician, Collaborating with Ecologists and Agricultural Scientists, the Experience Has Been:InterestingInterestingFunFunRewardingRewarding

We all need clean water, clean air, and wholesome food

End of this Planned Presentation

Questions Welcome

CADDIS FLIESCADDIS FLIES

MESA CREEK (ORC 20)MESA CREEK (ORC 20)

““SURBER” SAMPLER IN USESURBER” SAMPLER IN USE

COLLECTING IN A STREAMCOLLECTING IN A STREAM

FIELD CLEANING OF A FIELD CLEANING OF A COLLECTIONCOLLECTION

BAGGING & PRESERVING A BAGGING & PRESERVING A COLLECTIONCOLLECTION

BAGGED COLLECTION - LABBAGGED COLLECTION - LAB

EVALUATING THE EVALUATING THE “EVALUATION ERROR”“EVALUATION ERROR”

HERE, THERE IS NO WAY TO REPEATTHE PROCESS OF PULLING CLUMPS

APART ===> “REPEATED MEASURES”

IMPOSSIBLE

ALTERNATIVE: SPLIT COLLECTIONS 50:5050:50 SEPARATELY EVALUATE EACH HALFSEPARATELY EVALUATE EACH HALF

EXAMINE SIMILARITY OF SPLITS TO STUDY “EVALUATION ERROR”

COLLECTIONCOLLECTIONEMPTIED INTO A EMPTIED INTO A BEAKER PRIOR BEAKER PRIOR TO SPLITTINGTO SPLITTING

PLACING A PLACING A COLLECTION IN COLLECTION IN THE SPLITTERTHE SPLITTER

SPLITTING A COLLECTIONSPLITTING A COLLECTION

COMPLETED COMPLETED SPLITSPLIT

SPLIT COLLECTION READY FOR ENUMERATIONSPLIT COLLECTION READY FOR ENUMERATION

EPA’s ARCTIC CONTAMINANTS EPA’s ARCTIC CONTAMINANTS RESEARCH PROGRAMRESEARCH PROGRAM

REALITY: ARCTIC HAZE HAS INCREASED GREATLYOVER THE PAST 30 YEARS.

APPARENT ORIGINAPPARENT ORIGIN NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING THE FORMER SOVIET UNION.

IT CONTAINS LOTS OF “BAD STUFF.”IT CONTAINS LOTS OF “BAD STUFF.” QUESTION:

HAS MUCH OF THIS “BAD STUFF” BEEN DEPOSITEDHAS MUCH OF THIS “BAD STUFF” BEEN DEPOSITEDIN ARCTIC ALASKA?IN ARCTIC ALASKA?

APPROACH USE LICHENS AS A NATURAL ACCUMULATORUSE LICHENS AS A NATURAL ACCUMULATOR COLLECT SPECIFIC LICHENS ACROSS A POSSIBLECOLLECT SPECIFIC LICHENS ACROSS A POSSIBLE

GRADIENT OF SITESGRADIENT OF SITES NSU: SELECTED GENERAL SITE LOCATION &

DEVELOPED LOCAL SITE SELECTION CRITERIA