a standard life investments presentation 12 september 2007 this communication is intended for...
TRANSCRIPT
A Standard Life Investments presentation12 September 2007
This communication is intended for investment professionals only and must not be relied on by anyone else.
Smaller Companies: Reasons to keep the faith
2
Harry Nimmo
Investment Director
Head of UK Smaller Companies
Where now for Smaller Companies?
Buying tomorrow’s smaller companies today
3
• Current definitions• Alternative Investment Market• Sector exposure – Hoare Govett• Sector exposure – AIM• UK & USA Small Cap relative performance• Valuations & Growth• Smaller Companies transformed• Growth themes
Where now for Smaller Companies?
Reasons to keep the faith
4
Full List Market
Source: LSE, Investec, 03 June 2007
102%100%
92%
97%
44%
0100
1,100
38,000
0% 132,100
Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index
FTSE250
FTSE100
Market Cap (£m)
%Rank
1
100
195350680
1139
Drax
Hiscox
QXLAgcert Intl
BP
81% 3,500
Rio Tinto 10FTSE
All Share
FTSE Smallcap
5
Alternative Investment Market (AIM)
100%
84%
48%
0
50
180
0% 1,259
Market Cap (£m)
%Rank
1
100
525
1654
CPL Resources
Intercytex Group
Sibir Energy
Source: LSE, Investec, 03 June 2007
6
Smaller Companies and Large Cap sector exposure
Source: Investec, LSE, 30 June 2007
Support Services
Real Estate
General Retailers
Software
General Financials
Industrial Engineering
Electronic & Electrical Equipment
Nonlife Insurance
Media
Travel & Leisure
0% 5% 10% 15%
14.7
7.6
7.2
7.5
6.5
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.1
4.1
Hoare Govett Index (ex ITs)
0% 5% 10% 15%
16..4
15.1
6.5
8.0
4.7
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.2
Support Services
Banks
Oil & Gas
Mining
Pharmaceuticals
Telecoms
Life Insurance
Media
Travel & Leisure
FTSE All Share
7
AIM Market sector exposure: 2000 & 2007
Source: LSE, Market Statistics
Support Services
Real Estate
Mining
Software
General Financials
Industrial Metals
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Media
Travel & Leisure
0 5 10 15
13.1
11.8
9.6
9.6
7.0
5.3
4.9
4.0
3.3
3.2
FTSE AIM Index June 2007
General Financials
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
30.1
12.7
7.18.7
7.1
5.9
2.6
2.41.9
1.8
FTSE AIM Index March 2000
Software
MediaSupport Services
Travel & Leisure
Real Estate
RestaurantsEngineering
Household Goods
Automobiles
8
UK & USA Small Cap relative performance
Source: DATASTREAM
3/9/07
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 070.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
HGSCEXT/FTSE100 FRUSSL2/S&PCOMP(R.H.SCALE)
UK
USA
UK and USA move in line
9
Are valuations stretched?
1 January
8
7
8
10
11
14 1414
1616
13
12
9
12
15
20
1617 17 16
12
1615 15
13
17
18
2020
1.11
1.20
1.26
1.041.02
1.35
1.20
1.15 1.16
.62
.71
.77
.88
.83
.87.89.90
.98.98
.89
.93
1.13
.94
1.12
1.08
.89 .86
1.2
1.0
0
5
10
15
20
80 85 90 95 00 050.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
P/E ratio P/E relative
Price/earnings ratio of HGSC P/E relative to market
Source: E Dimson and P Marsh; ABN Amro
10
UK Market Valuations
Source: Datastream, I.Williams Oriel Securities, 28/08/2007
11.7 14.1 14.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
12 months forward PE ratio (ex loss makers)
FTSE100 FTSE250 Hoare Govett +AIM
6% 10% 14%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
12 months forward EPS growth
PEG ratio is best for Smaller Companies
11
The Transformation of Smallcaps
DecliningSectors
GrowthSectors
ChemicalsEngineeringPackaging
Textiles
I.T.Support ServicesPharmaceuticals
HealthcareSpecialty Financials
MediaElectronicsRetailers
Travel & Leisure
Dec ‘94 July ‘06
Source: Hoare Govett plus Aim
From maturity to growth
28%
31%
OthersOthers
59%
8%
12
Exposure to growth themesSLI UK Smaller Companies Fund (OEIC)
Social Housing 6.9%Global Growth Niche Leaders
19.6%Geographic Roll Out
(Incl. Restaurants)15 .6%
Morgan Sindall 1.9% Autonomy 2.7% Domino’s Pizza 2.9%
Kier 1.5% Aveva 2.3% Lavendon 2.3%
Connaught 1.3% Expro International 2.1% Restaurant Group 1.5%
Rok 1.1% Chemring 1.9% Speedy Hire 1.5%
Galliford 1.1% ICG 1.9% Clapham House 1.5%
Software 11.6% Fidessa 1.8% Majestic Wine 1.5%
Aveva 2.3% Raymarine 1.8% Topps Tiles 1.2%
Autonomy 2.7% Genus 1.4% Goals Soccer Centres 1.1%
Axon 1.9% Detica 1.3% Workspace 1.1%
Fidessa 1.8% Latchways 1.3% Carluccio’s 1.0%
Detica 1.5% Stanley Gibbons 1.1% Online 9.4%
SDL 1.4% Paddy Power 2.7%
East Europe / Russia 5.2% QXL Riccardo 1.7%
ITE 2.0% Datacash 1.3%
QXL Ricardo 1.7% ASOS 1.1%
JKX Oil & Gas 1.5% Stanley Gibbons 1.1%
Abcam 0.9%
Yougov 0.6%Source: Standard Life Investments, 20 August 2007
The essence of Smaller Companies investing
13
Reasons to keep the faith with Smallcaps
• Results season is shaping up well
• Directors are buying
• You get more growth
• Interesting themes
• Alpha
Smaller Companies return 3.6% higher then FTSE All Share (1955-2006)Source: Dimson & Marsh, London Business School, January 2007
14
Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Fund
• Total assets: £400m• Total return 2006: +43.5%
• Ten years old on 6/01/07• Ten year return: +398%• Annualised growth rate: +16.4%
One manager, one process
“Investment Week” smaller fund manager of the year 2001“What Investment” Unit trust manager of the year 2006“PLC Awards” Best Smaller Companies Fund 2007
Source: S&P Retail share class, SLI, 6 August 2007
16
Remember - past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and cannot be guaranteed.
Standard Life Investments Limited, tel. +44 131 225 2345, a company registered in Scotland (SC 123321) Registered Office 1 George Street Edinburgh EH2 2LL.
The Standard Life Investments group includes Standard Life Investments (Mutual Funds) Limited, SLTM Limited, Standard Life Investments (Corporate Funds) Limitedand Standard Life Investments (Private Equity) Limited. Standard Life Investments Limited acts as Investment Manager for Standard Life Assurance Limited and Standard Life Pension Funds Limited.
Standard Life Investments may record and monitor telephone calls to help improve customer service. All companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. ©2007 Standard Life Investments. www.standardlifeinvestments.com