a short history of cartography and meteorology
TRANSCRIPT
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A Short History of Cartography and MeteorologyChris Little, IT Fellow, Met Office
Chair OGC Meteorology and Oceanography Domain WG
2020-09-28
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Talk Outline
Some History
Where Are We Now (± some years)
Thoughts on the Future (provocative?)
Questions & Answers (discussion?)
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Meteor + Logos - Μετεωρολογικά
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Aristotle’s 3/5 climatic zones
12th-century manuscript of Macrobius's Commentarii in Somnium Scipionis
ca. 1150.
Copenhagen, Det Kongelige Bibliotek
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Al-Masudi
947CE
The Meadows of Gold and Mines of Gems
مروج الذهب ومعادن ) Muruj, الجواهرadh-dhahab wa ma'adin al-jawhar)
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Halley’s Trade Wind Map 1656
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Beaufort’s Weather Code1820-1825 version
b. Blue sky
c. Clear, transparent atmosphere
ci. Cirrus clouds
cl. Cloudy
cu. Cumulus clouds
d. Mist (damp air)
Dk Dark weather but atmosphere clear
f. Foggy
f: Dense Fog
g. Gloomy weather
h. Haze
m. Mist in valley
p. Passing cloud
r. Rain
s. Strong squalls
© Crown copyright Met Office
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1831 Beaufort Wind Force Scale
0 Calm
1 Light Air Or just sufficient to give steerage way
2 Light Breeze Or that in which a man-of-war with all sail set, and clean full would go in smooth water from.1 to 2 knots
3 Gentle Breeze 3 to 4 knots
4 Moderate Breeze 5 to 6 knots
5 Fresh Breeze Or that to which a well-conditioned man-of-war could just carry in chase, full and by. Royals, etc
6 Strong Breeze Single-reefed topsails and top-gallant sail
7 Moderate Gale Double reefed topsails, jib, etc
8 Fresh Gale Treble-reefed topsails etc
9 Strong Gale Close-reefed topsails and courses
10 Whole Gale Or that with which she could scarcely bear close-reefed main-topsail and reefed fore-sail
11 Storm Or that which would reduce her to storm staysails
12 Hurricane Or that which no canvas could withstand© Crown copyright Met Office
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Voyage of HMS Beagle
© Crown copyright Met Office
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coined the term
'anticycl
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How Meteorology works nowHowWhere are we now?
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The Primitive Equations of Meteorology – p, T, (u, v) and q
© Crown copyright Met Office
Ideal Gas Law (Equation of State)
Newton’s Second Law of Motion
First Law of Thermodynamics
Hydrostatic Law
Conservation of Mass Applied to the
Atmosphere (Equation of Continuity )
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State of the Art computer
© Crown copyright Met Office
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Quasi-Geostrophic Vorticity
Equation
Baroclinic Instability Theory
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© Crown copyright Met Office
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• ENIAC 24 hour forecast grid
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1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
1.E+11
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1.E+14
1.E+15
1.E+16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Pe
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rma
nc
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FL
OP
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Year of First Use
Computers Used for Weather and Climate Prediction
IBM Power7
IBM Power6
NEC SX-8
NEC SX-6
Cray T3E
Cray C90
Cray Y-MPETA-10
Cyber 205
IBM 360/195
KDF-9
Mercury
Leo
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Improving accuracy: Pmsl
© Crown copyright Met Office
RMS surface pressure error over the NE Atlantic
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Meteorology meets GIS1980s: GIS not feasible
1990s: Niche GIS use for specific products for limited customers
2000s: Nicer niche products and prettier backgrounds
2007: Regular Met Conference: recommended GIS workshop
2008-2009: Workshop on GIS/OGC Standards in Meteorology:
• Recommended OGC involvement and establish Met DWG
• Proposed work: WMS interoperability for Nat. Met. Services
• MoU between OGC & WMO and IOC/WMO JCOMM
• Covers meteorology, climatology, hydrology, oceanography
• OGC Met Ocean Domain WG established
2009-2013: Three more Workshops, ~ 10 NMS joined OGC
• Work extended to conceptual modelling, WCS
2014-2018 OGC and W3C: SDWBP, Time, CRS, graphics, etc
2018-2020 Weather on the Web (WotW) APIs
-> OGC API – Environmental Data Retrieval (EDR)
© 2010 Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc.
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Where are we now?
Thoughts on Future Possibilities
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Meteorology has a history of inventing/tailoring technologies
☒ Operating Systems
☒ Programming Languages
☒ Telecoms Protocols
☒ Telecom computers (message switching)
? Data Formats
☑ Visualisations
☑ SemanticsGIS domain!
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Challenges for Mapping in Meteorology
Long history of interoperability at human/paper level
Significant ‘Objects’, features of interest
Not Mbytes or GB, but TB and PetaBytes of data daily
Spatial & Temporal, 2D, 3D, 4+D, constantly changing
• Multiple Time attributes
• Irregular time intervals
• Timescales: hours,.., seasons,.., centuries, + & -
Vertical coordinates
• Cross-sections, height-time diagrams, T/φs, etc
‘Regular’ grids are not always regular
Continual change of coordinate systems & projecting
• Eulerian versus Lagrangian viewpoints
Ensembles: probabilistic distributions© 2010 Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc.
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Technology Trends
NWP resolutions from 500km -> 1km -> 0.3km -> ?
More blending of our data with customers/users:
• Met, Ocean, Hydro, Space, Ecology, Earth Systems
Likely evolution / interactions
• WMO Formats -> general Scientific Formats (netCDF, Zarr, ..)
• -> Geospatial standards ?
• Visualisations -> general graphics tech (SVG, OpenGL, …)
• -> Geospatial standards (SLD/SE?)
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2D Maps & Layers ‘broken’
2D Maps and Layers - cartography
3D or 4D data breaks ‘Layers’ paradigm
• Suppose data have 10 levels x 10 times: ->
• 100 layers – choose from a menu?
But
• 100 levels, 100 times, 100 ensembles: ->
• 1 000 000 layers?
• X 100s of parameters of interest
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Geospatial is Changing
Other 3D activities in OGC:
• CDB simulation
• Gaming
• UxVs
• Underground
• CityGML
• 3D Portrayal
None of these based on traditional 2D cartography
Start from 3/4D assumption
• Lots of 3D support in h/w (GPUs)
• Derive 2D by restriction of 3/4D work
• Could support other visualisations: cross sections (“vertical maps”), graphs
Generic containers, managed APIs, RESTful
Moving away from Schemas to ‘schema-less’Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium
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Future possibilities?
• 5 years: No specialized meteorological visualization software, all done
in generic geospatial software with meteorological style sheets?
• 10 years: No specialized geospatial software, all done in ‘browsers’?
• Real 3D displays when?
• Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality/Head-Up Displays make 3D easier?
Consequential suggestions:
0. Make Z & T ‘first class CRS citizens’
1. Codify and expose meteorological styles
2. Expose meteorological symbols and their semantics
• Try to put into Unicode
3. Move away from existing rigid layout of WMO symbols/semantics of artificial 10x10 structure imposed by telegraphic codes
4. ‘Abstract’ symbols powerful. C.f. SigWx chart
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Questions & Answers
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WMO Present Weather Symbols
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Ensemble of many forecasts
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Summary - Forecasting
Big Data getting bigger despite electricity costs
Forecasts need supercomputers, not ‘cloud computing’
Meteo and Ocean forecasts too big & volatile to move
• Global enterprise involving all 193 countries.
“Moving data costs, calculations are free”
1. Move apps to the data, but how?
• Merging authoritative & unreliable info
• Need federated security architecture
2. Defining ‘Convenience APIs’
• Get just the data needed for the application
• Use scalable Web architectural style ‘RESTful’
• Cache retrieved API data with URI for re-use© Crown copyright Met Office
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Summary - Data
Cross-domain information becoming the norm, BUT
domain specific (big) data formats here to stay:
• (NetCDF, HDF, GRIB, BUFR, FITS, BAM, VCF, GF3, …)
• Binary, efficient, optimised
• Established eco-systems of access software & tools
• Established domain expertise, controlled vocabularies
Generic data formats have no traction, BUT
Web friendly transfer formats for browsers and apps
• (CSV, JSON, XML)
• More verbose – small amounts OK
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Summary - Metadata
Metadata should be cross-domain for discovery
• Metadata fixed format/containers a good start
• Only for discovery, not usage and management
• Metadata is open-ended, not in containers/catalogues/portals
Controlled Vocabularies -> Taxonomies -> Ontologies
Semantic Web / Web 2.0
• Highly scalable
• Highly flexible
Resolvable registries of controlled vocabularies happening
Conceptual models can be stored as ontologies
Ontologies allow valid machine reasoning
Semantic formats much too verbose for most dataCopyright © 2017 Open Geospatial Consortium