Tim Francisco <info@farmdirection.com>

GOOD MORNING: 03/11/19 Farm Direction ­ Van Trump Report 1 message

The Van Trump Report <reply@vantrumpreport­email.com> Mon, Mar 11, 2019 at 7:16 AMReply­To: Jordan <reply­feca16737c60067c­314_HTML­36250946­100003450­1@vantrumpreport­email.com>To: info@farmdirection.com

"Life is not about how fast you run or how high you climb, but how well you bounce.” –Vivian Komori

MONDAY, MARCH 11, 2019 Printable Copy or Audio Version

Morning Summary: Stock are steady to slightly higher this morning, which isconsidered a win after last week's losses and weak economic data. The S&P 500 raninto heavy technical resistance last Monday after it peaked just north of 2,800. Bullsseem to be taking a more "wait­and­see" approach towards Chinese trade negotiationsand perhaps a little more hesitant in putting more capital to work following the recentmulti­week rally. It sounds like we may have taken another positive step in trade talksover the weekend, with China’s top central banker saying that Beijing and Washingtonare getting close to reaching a "currency deal" as part of their continuing negotiations.Chinese officials also announced they would not be engaging in competitive devaluationto give Chinese exporters a leg up in foreign markets. Remember, how China managesand manipulates its currency has been a big sticking point during the tradenegotiations, so I see this as a significant step forward. White House economic adviserLarry Kudlow is also saying the currency comments made this weekend by Chineseofficials is evidence that the two sides are making progress towards a resolution.Interestingly, Kudlow told reporters that he was “bullish” and that the two sides wouldfinish an agreement this month or next. There's clearly starting to be more hints that atrade summit between President Trump and Xi is being pushed back into April and willnot happen at the end of March like many inside the trade had been anticipating. Bearscontinue to question global growth and the continued wide­spread economic slowdown.In fact, there are many bears that doubt a trade truce between the U.S. and China willstop the global economic bleeding. The bears believe the problems run deeper than thetrade disputes and tariffs that are currently in play. The stronger dollar is clearly hurtingthe Emerging Markets and the Eurozone economies continue to show growing signs ofweakness. Here at home, analyst continue to reduce earnings estimates for 2019,especially in the S&P 500 companies that derive a large portion of their revenue fromnon­US sources. Bears believe the stronger U.S. dollar and weaker internationalmarkets are finally starting to make an impact on U.S. businesses. Keep in mind, anestimated 62% of Apple's revenue this past quarter is believed to have come frominternational sales. I should also note that both Google and Facebook derive more than+50% of their total ad revenue from outside the U.S. On top of the global headwinds,the bears are also pointing to the most recent jobs report that was released on Fridaymorning. It showed only +20,000 new jobs were added in February compared to whatanalyst were expecting to be closer to +180,000 new jobs added. Remember, inJanuary we added over +300,000 new jobs. I should also note, the most recent readingon "wage growth" showed a gain of +3.5%, the same number posted back in December2018 and our highest reading since March of 2009. The bears are concluding that theU.S. labor market might have peaked and may soon start showing more signs ofweakness. Bulls are simply calling the recent employment report a "one­off" due toweather and data being backed up in Washington. Regardless, it might cause some newbull money to pause before being put to work in the market. As for today, the trade iseager to see the most updated U.S. Retail Sales data. Tomorrow will bring the releaseof the latest Consumer Price Index data, followed by updated Construction Spendingnumbers, the Producer Price Index, Durable Goods, and Mortgage applications onWednesday. Despite the negative tone, I still feel like bigger breaks should be used asnearby buying opportunities.

Plane Crash Kills 157 People, Boeing Stock Uncertainty: Eight Americanswere among 157 people killed when an Ethiopian Airlines flight crashed shortlyafter takeoff on Sunday. The 4­month­old Boeing 737­8 MAX plane crashed six

1903, Lawrence Welk isborn ­ For the generation thatgrew up on the big bands ofthe 30s and 40s, The LawrenceWelk Show was a blessed

island of calm in a world gone mad forrock and roll, and it aired like clockworkevery Saturday night from 1955 to 1982.But for the children and grandchildrenwatching along with them, it seemedmore like the “television show that timeforgot.” The man at this generationalflash point was an accordion­playing,Alsatian­accented bandleader who kickedoff each number with “A vun and a two”and ended with a cheery “Wunnerful,wunnerful.” Although he delighted theolder crowd, youngsters were usually notso enamored. As polarizing in his ownfolksy way as Elvis Presley was in his, theinimitable Lawrence Welk—creator andKing of “Champagne Music”—was born inrural North Dakota on March 11, 1903.Welk’s parents were immigrants fromAlsace­Lorraine who spoke only Germanto the nine children they raised on theirfarm outside Strasburg, North Dakota. Infact, Lawrence Welk did not learn Englishuntil his early 20s, which explains theaccent that became his trademark. Adutiful son, Welk dropped out of school inthe fourth grade to work full time on thefamily farm, but he decided early on thathe wished to pursue a career in music. Helearned to play the accordion from hisfather, who carried his own antiqueinstrument with him when he immigratedto America. Lawrence wore out theinexpensive, mail­order accordion boughtfor him as a boy, so he made a deal withhis parents: In exchange for a $400 loanto purchase a professional accordion, hewould stay and work on the family farmthrough the age of 21. Playing smallprofessional gigs in the surrounding area,Welk honed his musical skills and earnedenough money to pay his parents backwhen he left home for good in 1924. Bythe early 1930s, Lawrence Welk hadearned a degree in music and made aname for himself as the leader of atraveling orchestra. He had also failed ina restaurant venture selling

minutes after departing on its way to Nairobi, Kenya. The cause of the crash wasnot immediately known, though the pilot sent out a distress call and was givenclearance to return. The plane had routine maintenance on Feb. 4 and had flownjust 1,200 hours, the airline's CEO said. The pilot had nine years of seniority withthe airline. Overall, the airline's safety record had been on par with other majorworld airlines. The plane was carrying 149 passengers and eight crew members.Following the news, China’s Civil Aviation Administration ordered the temporarygrounding of all Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft flown by Chinese airlines. Expect a bit ofturbulence the next few days if you own Boeing stock. (Source: WallStreetJournal)

Top Receiver in NFL Traded to the Raiders: Over the weekend the PittsburgSteelers traded Antonio Brown to the Oakland Raiders for a 2019 third­round andfifth­round pick. The Raiders will guarantee Brown $30 million, and the totalamount he was due to earn through 2021 increases from $38.9 million to $50.1million, according to Pro Football Talk. That breaks down to $19.8 million annually,on average, which will again make Antonio Brown the NFL's highest­paid receiver.In addition, if Brown hits all his incentives, he'll earn an additional $15.2 millionover the next three years, which will bring his average annual salary up to $20.8million. Many insiders are saying the Amari Cooper trade doesn't seem all that badnow that the Raiders are getting a seven­time Pro Bowler who has registered atleast 100 catches for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the past sixseasons. Keep in mind, the Raiders have eight picks in this upcoming draft withthree of them coming in the first round. This team being assembled by head coachJon Gruden could end up making a huge splash as the NEW Las Vegas Raiders in2020... Keep your eye on them the next couple of seasons!

116­year­old Japanese Woman Crowned World's Oldest Person: KaneTanaka was named the new oldest living person in the world Saturday by theGuinness Book of World Records. Tanaka, the youngest of seven children, was bornprematurely on Jan. 2, 1903. Theodore Roosevelt was president of the UnitedStates and World War I was still a full decade away from changing geopoliticsforever. She wakes up at 6 a.m. each day, likes to study math for fun andcompetes fiercely in the board game Othello. (Source: USAToday)

More High­Income Earners Are Renting: Over the same time the totalpopulation has grown by 6% and incomes have grown by 7%, the number of high­income renters has increased by an amazing 48% according to a study byApartment List. Defined as earning at least $100,000, the high­income renternumbers stood at only 3.8 million in 2008, but by the end of 2017 that number hadgrown to 5.7 million. What has some economists worried is how this shift has hurthome sales in the U.S. Interestingly, economists for Apartment List were shockedwhen they saw the data confirming the accelerated growth of high­income renters.I'm told the conclusions were drawn that the greatest growth and most renters hadto be the places that have had the highest growth rates, but that wasn't so.Instead, they found that cities like Denver, Austin, Oklahoma City, New Orleans,and Memphis experienced the biggest growth in high­income renters over the pastdecade. Meaning, mid­sized cities with strong growing economies where the rentallandscape has really changed dramatically over the last 10 years. Read more HEREon the effects on the housing market.

“squeezeburgers” cooked on anaccordion­shaped grill, but he hadsucceeded in developing a unique brandas the proponent of a pleasing pop styledubbed “Champagne Music” for its lightand bubbly quality. After two decades ofsuccess in the Midwest, Welk made hisway to Los Angeles in 1951, taking upresidence with his orchestra at the AragonBallroom in Pacific Ocean Park. He madehis first appearance on local television thefollowing year, and his show was pickedup by ABC in 1955. When ABC droppedThe Lawrence Welk Show in 1971, Welkindependently arranged a syndicationdeal that kept him on the air for another11 years and made him one of the richestentertainers in America. Born on this dayin 1903, Lawrence Welk died at the age of89 on May 17, 1992.

1942, MacArthur LeavesCorregidor ­ After strugglingagainst great odds to save thePhilippines from Japaneseconquest, U.S. General

Douglas MacArthur abandons the islandfortress of Corregidor under orders fromPresident Franklin Roosevelt. Left behindat Corregidor and on the BataanPeninsula were 90,000 American andFilipino troops, who, lacking food,supplies, and support, would soonsuccumb to the Japanese offensive. Afterleaving Corregidor, MacArthur and hisfamily traveled by boat 560 miles to thePhilippine island of Mindanao, bravingmines, rough seas, and the JapaneseNavy. At the end of the hair­raising 35­hour journey, MacArthur told the boatcommander, John D. Bulkeley, “You’vetaken me out of the jaws of death, and Iwon’t forget it.” On March 17, the generaland his family boarded a B­17 FlyingFortress for Northern Australia. He thentook another aircraft and a long train ridedown to Melbourne. During this journey,he was informed that there were far fewerAllied troops in Australia than he hadhoped. Relief of his forces trapped in thePhilippines would not be forthcoming.Deeply disappointed, he issued astatement to the press in which hepromised his men and the people of thePhilippines, “I shall return.” The promisewould become his mantra during the nexttwo and a half years, and he would repeatit often in public appearances. For hisvaliant defense of the Philippines,MacArthur was awarded theCongressional Medal of Honor andcelebrated as “America’s First Soldier.”Put in command of Allied forces in theSouthwestern Pacific, his first duty wasconducting the defense of Australia.Meanwhile, in the Philippines, Bataan fellin April, and the 70,000 American andFilipino soldiers captured there wereforced to undertake a death march inwhich at least 7,000 perished. Then, inMay, Corregidor surrendered, and 15,000more Americans and Filipinos werecaptured. The Philippines–MacArthur’sadopted home–were lost, and the U.S.Joint Chiefs of Staff had no immediateplans for their liberation. After the U.S.victory at the Battle of Midway in June

Another Winter Storm Brewing: A storm system that is already bringing snowto the West will push into the Plains by midweek, triggering the development of anintense low­pressure system with possible blizzard conditions. From what Iunderstand, The storm will reach its peak intensity in the Plains on Wednesday,bringing snow and strong winds to the Rockies as well as the northern and centralPlains. I'm told blizzard conditions are possible where snow and strong winds willoverlap in the Plains, potentially closing interstates including I­70 in Colorado andnorthwestern Kansas as well as I­80 in western Nebraska and Wyoming.

1942, most Allied resources in the Pacificwent to U.S. Admiral Chester Nimitz, whoas commander of the Pacific Fleet planneda more direct route to Japan than via thePhilippines. Unperturbed, MacArthurlaunched a major offensive in NewGuinea, winning a string of victories withhis limited forces. By September 1944, hewas poised to launch an invasion of thePhilippines, but he needed the support ofNimitz’s Pacific Fleet. After a period ofindecision about whether to invade thePhilippines or Formosa, the Joint Chiefsput their support behind MacArthur’s plan,which logistically could be carried outsooner than a Formosa invasion. OnOctober 20, 1944, a few hours after histroops landed, MacArthur waded ashoreonto the Philippine island of Leyte. Thatday, he made a radio broadcast in whichhe declared, “People of the Philippines, Ihave returned!” In January 1945, hisforces invaded the main Philippine islandof Luzon. In February, Japanese forces atBataan were cut off, and Corregidor wascaptured. Manila, the Philippine capital,fell in March, and in June MacArthurannounced his offensive operations onLuzon to be at an end; although scatteredJapanese resistance continued until theend of the war in August. Only one­thirdof the men MacArthur left behind onMarch 11, 1942, survived to see hisreturn. “I’m a little late,” he told them,“but we finally came.”

1997, Paul McCartneyKnighted ­ On this day in1997, Paul McCartney, aformer member of the mostsuccessful rock band in history,

The Beatles, was knighted by QueenElizabeth II for his “services to music.”The 54­year­old lad from Liverpoolbecame Sir Paul in a centuries­oldceremony of pomp and solemnity atBuckingham Palace in central London.Fans waited outside in a scenereminiscent of Beatlemania of the 1960s.Crowds screamed as McCartney sweptthrough the gates in his chauffeur­drivenlimousine and he answered with athumbs­up. McCartney’s wife, Linda, whowas fighting breast cancer, did notaccompany him, but three of their fourchildren were at the palace. “I would haveloved the whole family to be here, butwhen we heard there were only threetickets, we had to draw straws,”McCartney said. Linda McCartney wouldsuccumb to cancer 13 months later onApril 17, 1998. As for the survivingBeatles, Ringo Starr and George Harrison,Sir Paul said that since they learned thathe would be knighted, “They call me ‘YourHoliness.'” McCartney dedicated hisknighthood to fellow Beatles GeorgeHarrison, Ringo Starr and John Lennonand the people of the northwestern portof Liverpool. In October 1965, McCartney,along with fellow band members JohnLennon, George Harrison and Ringo Starr,collected MBE (Member of the BritishEmpire) medals, much to the shock of theBritish establishment. Lennon, whoreturned his MBE in 1969 as a warprotest, was assassinated in New York in

1980. Harrison would also succumb tocancer, passing away on November 29,2001. McCartney admitted he was verynervous before the ceremony but said ithad been a great experience. “Proud tobe British, wonderful day and it’s a longway from a little terrace (street) inLiverpool,” he told reporters. Aides saidhe won’t be calling himself “Sir Paul,” thetitle conferred when the queen tappedhim on each shoulder with a naked swordas he knelt on the investiture stool.McCartney’s knighthood was consideredlong overdue even by the conservativestandards used in Britain, which seesmost such honors going to judges,scientists and politicians. McCartneyformed the group Wings after the Beatlessplit up in 1970, and made records withstars like Michael Jackson and StevieWonder before trying his hand atcomposing classical music. “The first timeI really ever felt a tingle up my spine waswhen I saw Bill Haley and The Comets onthe telly,” McCartney once said. “Then Iwent to see them live. The ticket was 24shillings, and I was the only one of mymates who could go as no one else hadbeen able to save up that amount. But Iwas single­minded about it. I knew therewas something going on here.”

Mon. 03/11 ­ Export Inspections

Thurs. 03/14 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims, Retail Sales

Fri. 03/15 ­ NOPA Crush

Sun 03/17 ­ St. Patrick's Day

Mon. 03/18 ­ Export Inspections

Tues.­Wed. 03/19­31/20 ­ FOMCMeeting

Wed. 03/20 ­ Spring Begins, Full Moon

Thurs. 03/21 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims

Fri. 03/22 ­ Cattle on Feed, ColdStorage

Mon. 03/25 ­ Export Inspections, NewHome Sales

Thurs. 03/28 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims, Hots & Pigs Report

Fri. 03/29 ­ Personal Income, GrainStock, Prospective Planting

Mon. 4/1 ­ April Fool's Day, ExportInspections, Crop Progress

Wed. 4/3 ­ US Trade Balance

Thurs. 04/04 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims

Fri. 04/05 ­ Unemployment Data,Consumer Credit

Mon. 04/08 ­ Export Inspections, CropProgress

Tues. 04/09 ­ Crop Production, USDASupply & Demand

Thurs. 04/11 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims

Mon. 04/15 ­ NOPA Crush, ExportInspections, Crop Progress

Tues. 04/16 ­ Retail Sales

Thur. 04/18 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims, Cattle on Feed

Fri. 04/19 ­ Good Friday, Full Moon

Mon. 04/22 ­ Easter Monday, ExportSales, Crop Progress

Tues. 04/23 ­ Cold Storage

Thurs. 04/25 ­ Export Sales, JoblessClaims

Mon. 04/29 ­ Export Inspections, CropProgress, Personal Income

“I am a recent subscriber to Kevin’snewsletter, but I’m a long­time reader ofmany other high­profile marketingservices. I am particularly impressed withthe thorough manner in which Kevinevaluates every economic aspect, bothnationally and internationally, thatinfluences commodity prices. His analysisand conclusions are highly thought outand conveyed in layman’s terms so thatthe reader can comprehend the numerousand often complex interrelationships thatimpact the markets. Kevin is a realattribute to the agricultural sector.”

A.M., FDIC

“As a national federal farm policyadministrator and commodity producer, Ifind it critical to keep updated with whatis going on in the real world of agricultureand with the domestic and globalmarkets. Of all the services I’ve havebeen privy to or have subscribed to overthe past 20 years I’ve found in the pastseveral months of engaging in your “FarmDirection” services to be the bestperception and analysis of what is really

happening in today’s world. Not only herein the United States, but across the globeas well. US farmers need this type of helpand information to assist them in theirdaily efforts. I commend you for a jobwell done. Please let me know if I canever be of any help or assistance to youin the future…”

L.T., Assistant Deputy Administratorfor Farm Programs USDA

"Not To Trade, is often considered a goodtrading decision..."

"First Rule of HOLES: When you are inone stop digging..."

"Every looser in Vegas, always walksaway from the table thinking he couldhave done better, the winners on theother hand leave while on top..."

"Bulls make money, Bears make money,but pigs get slaughtered..."

"The markets ability to remain irrationalcan often times last much longer thanyour ability to remain solvent..."

I'm more of a long­term player, thereforeyou will not see me give many short­termsuggestions or trade ideas. One of mymost important rules is that I alwaysfollow my long­term direction. Therefore,as long as I am "bullish" a market I willonly play that particular market in one ofthree ways.

Option #1 ­ Conservatively long.Option #2 ­ Aggressively long.Option #3 ­ Sitting on the sideline.

I never initiate a "short" position in amarket that I am "bullish" longer­term,nor do I initiate a "long" position in amarket I am "bearish" longer­term.

As we age, it gets harder and harder to create new neural pathways in the brain. It’sthe reason kids find it so easy to learn new things, but as adults it often gets moredifficult. Doing brain teasers and solving riddles can be an important part of keeping ourbrain healthy. The more connections we can form, the better our brain will be. I hope

this helps provide a little daily fun and exercise. The answer to each riddle or puzzle willbe located at the bottom of the report.

TODAY'S RIDDLE:

Feathers, I am as light, but quite heavy if squeezed tight. I'm seen as clean and pure, but often talked about with dirty terms.

Corn bulls are hoping to experience a better week. During the past two­weeks the cornmarket has trimmed roughly ­20 cents per bushel from its price. Funds are thought tonow be short nearly ­180,000 contracts. The lack of fresh headlines surroundingChinese trade, improved and more cooperative weather in South America, and thoughtsof recharged soil moisture and more planted acres here at home has weighed heavily onthe market. The trade is also digesting a more burdensome balance sheet from theUSDA, who late last week, confirmed a bit more uncertainty about demand movingforward. The USDA lowered their corn used for ethanol estimate by ­25 million bushels.The bigger surprise however was the ­75 million bushel reduction in their U.S. exportestimate, which was based on increasing global competitiveness. The reduction inoverall demand forced the USDA to raise their ending stocks forecast by +100 millionbushels to 1.835 billion. The season­average corn price was lowered ­5 cents at themidpoint to $3.55 per bushel. Brazil corn production was left "unchanged". Bears argue,early planting and cooperative weather in Brazil could eventually force the USDA toraise this estimate higher. Personally, I continue to believe, until there's an officialannouncement released detailing China's purchases of U.S. corn, ethanol and DDGs, it'sgoing to be tough to string together upside momentum, especially without a morewidespread South American weather story. Perhaps a bit longer­term, we could get anoverly wet spring story to develop here in the U.S. over the next few weeks and at thesame time we receive more positive trade headlines. I'm hoping that would provideenough firepower to trigger a short­covering rally and at the same time bring newbullish bets to the table. If neither of those stories come to fruition this Spring or simplyfizzle out as duds, then it could be a long growing season with depressing prices. Keepin mind, it's going to be tough to convince the trade of a drought here in the U.S. thisyear. I included some drought monitor maps below that show conditions as of early­March dating back to 2012. I also include the corresponding final average yieldestimate:

2019 ­ Estimated 176.0 bushels per acre average

2018 ­ 176.4 bushels per acre average

2017 ­ 176.6 bushels per acre average

2016 ­ 174.6 bushels per acre average

2015 ­ 168.4 bushels per acre average

2014 ­ 171.0 bushels per acre average

2013 ­ 158.1 bushels per acre average

2012 ­ 123.1 bushels per acre average

Soybean bulls want to believe that U.S and Chinese leaders are close to inking a tradedeal. There was talk circulating this weekend that China has agreed to make someconcessions in regard to currency manipulation which is perhaps a huge step in theright direction. Top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, believes a trade deal is going to getdone but has hinted to it being pushed back another month, perhaps more likelyhappening in April rather than March. This obviously does very little to help the old­cropstory as the South American new­crop harvest will have more time to replenish theirsupply. The USDA made a slightly bullish adjustment to the U.S. balance sheet byadjusting their domestic crush estimate higher by +10 million bushels. U.S. exportswere left "unchanged". Unfortunately, U.S. soybean ending stocks still remainextremely burdensome at 900 million bushels. The season­average soybean price rangeforecast remains $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel. I suspect we will continue to hear ongoingdebates about upcoming U.S. acreage, South America weather and logistics, and ofcourse rumors and speculation about Chinese trade negotiations. I still see it beingdifficult to build on upside momentum without additional trade specifics involving theworlds top buyer of soybeans. Perhaps a larger and more sustained rally occurs, but itfeels like it's further out on the horizon...

More U.S. Soybean Exports Going to the EU: U.S. soybean sales and shipmentsto the EU have risen since April 2018, 2 months prior to the imposition of duties onU.S. soybeans by China. With premiums for Brazilian soybeans and with tightsupplies in Argentina and Uruguay due to drought, EU buyers turned to the U.S. asthe most economical and readily available source for soybeans. Using a 12 monthmoving total based on FAS exports sales reports, soybean exports to the EU areover 9.0 million metric tons ending February. This is roughly double the amountexported through the end of February 2018. The last time 12 month exports of U.S.soybeans to the EU reached this level was in 1995. Continued strong weeklyexports are expected to add to the 12 month export total and could approach 10million metric tons ­­ a 30 year high. As long as China's duties boost Brazil'scompetitiveness, EU demand for U.S. soybeans should remain elevated with annualU.S. exports significantly above the 3.3 million metric ton average observed overthe previous 10 year period.

Wheat bears look as if they have a strong stranglehold on the market. There's alwaysthe chance we could see a dead­cat bounce after such a significant fall, but withoutsubstantial Chinese buying, weakness in the U.S. dollar, or more widespread weathercomplications, it's going to be tough to put together a sustained rally anytime soon. Asa producer, I feel extremely lucky and blessed to have sold all old­crop supply and 50%of our estimated new­crop production at much higher levels. I'm now kicking myselfthat I didn't sell a bit more back in mid­December when the market made that littlejump higher. The fundamentals and technicals have now become much more difficult.The SRW and HRW wheat contracts are both posting new technical lows with very littlenearby support on the charts. Fundamentally, the USDA added a bit more bitter news tothe bearish argument, again lowering their U.S. export estimate by ­35 million bushels.Wheat for food use was also lowered by ­5 million bushels, while wheat imports wereraised by +5 million bushels. Net­net, the USDA raised their projected 2018/19 U.S.ending stocks by +45 million bushels to 1.055 billion. The EU production is increased+1.0 million tons and they are expected to become more competitive with U.S.exporters for the remainder of the trade year. Remember, the euro currency is in theprocess of positing fresh new lows while the U.S. dollar is posting fresh new highs.Global ending stocks are increased +3.0 million tons to 270.5 million, even though thenumber is raised higher, it's still about ­3% below last year’s record. Unfortunately,that's not enough to excite the bulls or scare the bears. Keep in mind, late­2017 wetraded down to sub­$3.90 levels. In late­summer of 2016 we traded the front end ofthe wheat market down to sub­$3.60 levels. I'm hoping we don't see anything thatextreme happen here, but it's hard to rule it out of the realm of possibility without atrade deal or more wide­spread and substantial weather threat hitting the headlines.Large specs are thought to be short more than ­100,000 contracts of wheat.

> USDA and FDA Agree on Regulation of Cell­Based Meat: The highly anticipated jointagreement outlining how USDA and FDA will share oversight of cell­based meat was released latelast week. Under the plan, FDA will oversee cell collection, cell banks and cell growth anddifferentiation. Regulatory responsibility will transfer to USDA's Food Safety and Inspection service"during the cell harvest stage." USDA's FSIS will have oversight of production and labeling of cell­based meat and poultry products. From what I am hearing, groups on both sides of the issues arepretty happy with the agreement that has been reached.

> DowDuPont Begins Unit Separations: Chemicals producer DowDuPont Inc said itwould separate its material science unit, to be named “Dow,” on April 1, the first split inits planned break­up into three companies. I'm told the company will also declared adividend for DowDuPont stockholders, who will receive one share of Dow for every threeshares of DowDuPont held as of March 21. Also, Corteva, the agriculture unit, is set toseparate from specialty chemical maker DuPont on June 1.

> Sensitive Health Data on Glyphosate Should Be Made Public: This is accordingto the EU's highest court. The European Food Safety Authority had denied grantingaccess to dozens of previously undisclosed studies, including on tests carried out on thecarcinogenicity of the weedkiller. Anti­glyphosate advocates are praising this decisionand hope it will shed more light on the weedkiller that they believe is harmful to theenvironment and should be banned. (Source: Reuters)

> Colorado Wants to Use Blockchain to Manage Water Rights: Lawmakers inColorado want the U.S. state to study the potential of blockchain technology in waterrights management. A bipartisan group of Senators and State Representatives areproposing that the Colorado Water Institute should be granted authority to study howblockchain technology can help improve its operations. The institute, an affiliate ofColorado State University should study various use cases of blockchain each, includingwater rights database management, the establishment of water "banks" or markets,and general administration, according to the bill.

> America to Become World's Largest Exporter of Oil and Liquids: America is setto surpass Saudi Arabia later this year in the exports of oil, natural gas liquids andpetroleum products, like gasoline, according to energy research firm Rystad Energy.Interestingly, as short as ten years ago, it was said this milestone could not be done,

but thanks to technology in the shale fracking space, here we are. We need to keep thisin mind for our on farm operations as the speed of change is only accelerating. (Source:CNN)

> Disney to Double Down on its Environmental Plans: Entertainment giant Disney,is making its commitment a reality by opening an enormous new 270­acre, 50­megawatt solar facility in Florida. It went online in 2019 to provide clean renewableenergy to the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando. As stated on Disney's blog, thefacility will generate so much power, Disney will be able to use it to operate two of itsfour theme parks in Central Florida. I'm told Disney estimates the amount of energy thefacility can produce would be enough to power 10,000 homes annually. (Source:BigThink)

> Tesla Opens Model 3 Sales in Mexico: Tesla is now selling its Model 3 in Mexicofor the first time at Tesla's Mexico City­Masaryk store. Tesla originally launched in Mexicoback in December 2015. Keep in mind, Tesla has been focusing a fair amount of Model3 production on foreign markets, especially Europe and China. In addition, Electricvehicle sales in Mexico are still pretty low as fewer than 20,000 electric vehicles weresold in the country last year.

> SoftBank's Vision Fund Has Already Invested $70 billion: SoftBank CEOMasayoshi Son said the $100 billion Vision Fund has already invested about $70 billionof its money and could invest billions more in the near future. So far, Softbank's fundhas invested billions of dollars in companies like ride­hailing firm Uber Technologies,food­delivery company Doordash, shared office space firm WeWork, and messagingfirm Slack. Son says, "Our return on the investment is very, very good." Keep in mind,the fund's return since 2000 is 44%.

> U.S. Travelers Will Need a NEW Type of Visa to Visit Europe by 2021:European Union announced that American travelers will need a new type of visa — aEuropean Travel Information and Authorization System or ETIAS — to visit theEuropean Schengen Area. In case you didn't know, the Schengen Area is a zone of 26European countries that do not have internal borders and allow people to movebetween them freely, including countries like Spain, France, Greece, Germany, Italy andPoland. I should mention that minors will still only need their normal passports to travelafter the visas go into effect. (Source: CBS)

> Michael Bennett Heading to New England: After Eagles defensive end MichaelBennett refused to take a pay cut this week, it became pretty clear that he wouldn't bereturning to Philadelphia for the 2019 season. Instead, it looks like he'll be heading forNew England. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Eagles have hammered out atrade with the Patriots that will send Bennett to New England along with a 2020seventh­round pick. In return, the Eagles will acquire a 2020 fifth­round pick. Bytrading Bennett, Philly has now freed up $7.2 million toward their cap in 2019.

> Americans Chose Quality Over Quantity in Their Coffee: 61% of the coffeedrank in the United States is described by consumers as gourmet, according to theresults of a survey commissioned by the NCA and released during the group’s annualmeeting in Atlanta, Georgia. Overall daily consumption, however, remains at a similarlevel to last year, with 63% of respondents saying they had consumed coffee within thepast day, but there is a clear change in the quality and consideration of each cup.

> Market Volatility in Perspective: Short­term volatility can be difficult for even themost disciplined investors. Should investors with long­term goals focus on short­termvolatility in the market? To put this in perspective, it's worth looking at the last 90years of market history. The history of the S&P provides perspective and shows it's justthe price investors pay for stocks longer­term. Keep in mind, the short term swingsmay form peaks and valleys on a chart, but over years the mountain range flattens toform a much more gradual slope. (Source: Visual Capitalist)

Eastcentral Texas – We have been gearing up to plant corn for the last severalweeks. I had my guys go over each inch of the planter and we replaced everything thateven looked remotely like a problem. Understand that I have a newer planter and reallyneed to look it over quick to make sure nothing obvious is wrong but this year I thinkwe are going to need every second, minute and hour not wasted broken down to getthis corn planted in a timely manner. We got out and did about 100 acres but from thesounds of it we have pretty big rain coming through Sunday, so we are hoping we don’thave a bunch of replant issues.

Northcentral Kansas – The snow is mostly melted away but there’s still piles andpatches that exist. We need one of those 70­degree March afternoons like we areaccustomed too. Most of where the snow sits are were the sun doesn’t shine so a littletemperature bump would do wonders. As if we didn’t need any more moisture, we hada lengthy rain Saturday morning that did help knock some snow down but just added toour excessive moisture problem. We are looking at April 1st at the earliest especially ifthe 1­3 inches of rain they are calling for middle of this week.

Northern Illinois – I have some river bottom ground which was never harvested,mainly due to the fact it was a full foot under water. The waters have pull back and weare able to get out and look at how bad it messed up our soybean field. I would say atleast 80% of its completely flat on the ground and the other is a tangled mess. Theadjuster called it several months ago because it wasn’t even worth starting a combinefor. Since the water has pull back, we have had snow and recently rain. We try toalways plant beans on this field simply because they cost the least to plant and it has ahigh chance of flooding since it’s right along the river. We have never had so muchwater sit that long, so we are going to need some grid sampling done to see how muchdamage was done to the soil. It’s feeling like a fun year.

New Partnership Illustrates Maturing Cannabis Market: Nielsen and Headset, an analytics firmthat compiles point­of­sale data from legal cannabis sales in the U.S., said they are teaming up toprovide data and insights for consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies. The partnership

illustrates how the cannabis is rapidly maturing via the use of technology as well as data. I'm told thatunder the agreement, Nielsen will combine its consumer research with Headset's data from point­of­sale terminals, catalog and demographic and purchase data. The goal of the partnership is to bettersegment the market and give CPG companies insights for new products and markets, and to date,companies like Anheuser­Busch Inbev and Molson Coors have been teaming up with cannabisplayers such as Tilray and HEXO Corp., respectively, to explore new markets for non­alcoholicbeverages. Constellation Brands has also invested in Canopy Growth Corp. Read more HERE andstay on top of the the rising industry... could be some plays to be had.

Ikea's Innovation Lab Wants to Bring Solar Energy to Local Communities: Solarenergy is a very cheap alternative energy source, but if you can put the infrastructurein place to collect and store it, it would virtually be free. But incentivizing people tobuild that infrastructure remains a challenge. Ikea’s innovation lab Space10 isenvisioning a new prototype for how solar energy could be installed in localcommunities and then shared on a small microgrid. The microgrid would enable peopleto sell their excess energy to others on a blockchain­powered platform. CalledSolarVille, the idea came about because Space10 decided to do research into how solarenergy might change people’s lives in the future. But it’s hard not to see the lab’sresearch in the context of Ikea’s larger sustainability goals and initiatives. For instance,one segment of Ikea’s business, a franchise called Ingka that runs Ikea stores in 30countries, has pledged to bring affordable solar technology to homes in all of thesemarkets by 2025. Read more HERE how solar infrastructure and blockchain could be agame changer in the energy space.

People All Over the Globe Are Too Tired to Fix Their Sleep Issues: Everyone’sexhausted, but strangely, their doing little to improve the situation. From what Iunderstand, a new sleep survey found that 44% of global adults say their sleepworsened in the last five years, with 8 in 10 claiming they want to improve thesituation. However, 60% never sought any medical or professional help for it, healthtechnology company Philips discovered in its annual survey. In fact, most people justturned to the internet for their drowsy issues. I should mention that the Philips globalsleep survey also found that 76% of adults experience at least one listed condition thatimpacts their sleep, with insomnia (37%) and snoring (29%) topping the list. Also, inthe United States, roughly 70 million Americans suffer from chronic sleep problems andpoor sleep health, as reported by the CDC. Believe it or not, the national “sleepepidemic” does have an affect on the economy, with workers taking 1.23 million days ofyear off due to chronic sleeplessness. Not surprisingly, the U.S. sleep aid market isexpected to grow to over $100 billion by 2023. Read more HERE.

FinTech Personal Loans Moving in on Credit Card Market Share: Fintech upstartshave turbocharged personal loans, now the fastest growing category of consumer debt,according to Experian. Historically, this type of lending was once mainly used by riskierborrowers without access to credit cards or home­equity loans. Keep in mind that creditcards are still the easiest way to take on debt, too easy, some argue and personal loansgenerally don’t make sense for smaller purchases. But digitized alternatives areevolving and steadily encroaching on the credit cards’ turf: Affirm, started by PayPal co­founder Max Levchin, is available at checkout on the trendy Warby Parker glasseswebsite, and now has a partnership with Walmart for purchases of between $150 and$2,000. While it’s ramping up quickly, the total US personal loan balance is only about athird of outstanding credit­card debt, according to Experian. I'm told that loans stillhave lots of scope for growth, according to LendingTree chief economist TendayiKapfidze, especially with innovation in credit assessment deepening the pool of eligiblecustomers, he said. Even if personal loans aren’t an existential threat for the credit­cardbusiness, they could over time make revolving consumer credit somewhat lessprofitable for banks. That could happen if more customers decide to refinance credit­card debt with personal loans, and as fintech offerings become more plentiful and slickat the point of sale. Read more HERE on the emerging trend.

Step Inside the $45 Million Ultra­Modern Mansion on the Shores of LakeWashington: Just minutes from Bill Gates' house, and once the holder of over a $300million art collection, this ultra­modern waterfront mansion is selling for $45 million.Lake Washington in Hunts Point, is a small town about a 20­minute drive fromdowntown Seattle and the peninsula community also neighbors Medina, a wealthySeattle suburb that's home to billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos. From what Iunderstand, the house belonged to Barney A. Ebsworth, a travel entrepreneur andlegendary art collector who kept pieces by Edward Hopper, Georgia O'Keeffe, JacksonPollock, and more in the Hunts Point house. I'm told the collection was auctioned offafter Ebsworth's death in April 2018 for more than $317 million. Read more HERE.

Tillable Brings Transparency to the $32 Billion Farmland Rental Market Tillable, an online marketplace is bringing the information age the farmland rental sector as they helplandowners optimize their leasing experiences as well as curating a list of available leases forproducers. Following the recently announced Series A raise of $8.25 million, Tillable is poised to gaintraction in the rental market. By procuring multiple offers for leases and aggregating information onfair market prices, Tillable offers landowners the opportunity to get the best price for the acres theyare renting out. Not only that, but farmers will be provided key information like acreage, soil type, andlocation in lieu of having to secure land through word­of­mouth or simply passing a "For Rent" signas they go about their day. It's worth mentioning that Tillable co­founder Corbett Kull, isn't new to theagtech sector as he sold his former startup business 640 Labs to Climate Corporation in 2014 andnow believes he has a solution for struggles faced by both landowners and farmers as they seek tolease and acquire leased acres. From what I understand, Tillable already has over 50 verifiedgrowers within 30 miles of each farm listed on their website, meaning the landowner has plenty ofoptions in choosing a grower and is not required to choose the producer who offers the highest price.Keep in mind the right tenant doesn’t necessarily mean the one willing to pay the highest price, assome of us have learned the hard way. Currently, 40% of US farmland is rented making up the $32billion a year market and Krull believes there is an additional $8 million left on the table due tounderpriced rent stemming from very little data transparency on pricing as well as the relativeperformance of the acres. I'm told the whole process is pretty simple for both parties, just go toTillable's website HERE to sign up. Landowners will list their properties and wait for interestedfarmers to make an offer, then just choose the best producer for your needs. On the other side,farmers will need to create a profile on the site, showcasing their skills and experience. Once partiescome to an agreement, a digital lease is created and producers can pay rents through automatedprocesses. Also, producers have access to easy­to­use tools for reporting, allowing you to buildyourself a reputation on Tillable. Hopefully, Tillable will open the door to further consolidate theprocess and transparency of land rentals as 80% of rented farmland is owned by a non­operatorlandlord, meaning someone who owns farmland but who is not actively involved in farming and only38% of the non­operator landowners are retired farmers, meaning that 42% of non­operatorlandlords have little­to­no farm experience whatsoever. All this to say that although some tenantsmay prefer an absentee landowner, others may find it challenging to communicate about the landand the lease agreement with a landowner who lacks a sophisticated knowledge of farming. Isuggest taking a look at the opportunity that Tillable and others in the space are offering. With moretransparency will come better pricing discovery and hopefully better peace of mind for both parties.You can read more HERE about other players in the space and see if they can assist you with abetter bottom line in 2019. (Source: AgFunder, Tillable.com)

A Little Bit Of Inspiration As you know, I constantly like to add a little motivation and positive attitude to the mix, especiallywhen prices are low and the cards seem aligned against us. As my grandpa always told me, "justkeep your head up and keep on moving." Below are a three short, but good inspirational writings thatI like to share with friends and family during difficult times. Please feel free to use and pass along toanyone that might be struggling.

Second Chances By Maya Angelou

I've learned that no matter what happens, or how bad it seems today, life does goon, and it will be better tomorrow.

I've learned that regardless of your relationship with your parents, you'll miss themwhen they're gone from your life.

I've learned that making a living is not the same thing as making a life.

I've learned that life sometimes gives you a second chance.

I've learned that whenever I decide something with an open heart, I usually makethe right decision.

I've learned that even when I have pains, I don't have to be one.

I've learned that every day you should reach out and touch someone. People love awarm hug, or just a friendly pat on the back.

I've learned that I still have a lot to learn.

I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you didbut people will never forget how you made them fee

Invictus By William Earnest Henley

Out of the night that covers me, Black as the pit from pole to pole, I thank whatever gods may be For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance I have not winced nor cried aloud. Under the bludgeonings of chance My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears Looms but the Horror of the shade, And yet the menace of the years Finds and shall find me unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate, How charged with punishments the scroll, I am the master of my fate, I am the captain of my soul.

The Beginning of a New Day

Today is the beginning of a new day. God has given me this day to use as I will. I can waste it or use it for good, but what I do today is important because I am exchanging a day of my life for it. When tomorrow comes, this day will be gone forever, leaving in its place something that I have traded for it. I want it to be gain and not loss; good and not evil; success and not failure; in order that I shall not regret the price I have paid for it.

ANSWER to riddle: Snow

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