8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

1/6

AReporttotheHoustonCityCouncil

onthe2010CensusResultsby

Jerry

Wood

February24,2011

AstheCityCouncilisaware,ArticleV,Section3oftheCityCharterrequirestheCityCouncil,baseduponthebestavailabledata,todetermineineachyearduringwhichaCitygeneralelectionistobeheld,(i)thepopulationoftheCityandofeachCouncildistrictfromwhichadistrictCouncilMemberistobeelected,and(ii)whetherthepopulationoftheCouncildistrictsismateriallyunbalancedastopopulation.TheCouncilisalsoawarethattheofficialApril,2010U.S.CensusfortheCityofHoustonshowedapopulationof2,099,451,orjustshyof2.1million.Apopulationof2.1millionissignificantbecauseArticleV,Section2oftheCityCharterrequirestheCitytocreatetwoadditionalCouncilDistrictswhenthecityspopulationisdeterminedtobe2.1millionormore.ThepurposeofthisreportistodelineatedeficienciesinthereportedcensusandidentifyclearevidencethattheCityspopulationis,infact,greaterthan2.1million.Allestimatesforthe2010populationofHouston,includingthoseoftheCensusBureauandthePlanningandDevelopmentDepartment,werehigherthantheBureausenumeratedpopulationbyover150,000people. Therearemanywaysinwhichtheseresultsmaybeanalyzedtounderstandthesourceofthisundercount. AnalysisoftheCensusresultstoidentifyerrorsisataskperformedbythePlanningandDevelopmentDepartmentaftereveryCensus. Asapartofthateffort,Ilookedatonepossiblesourceforerrors,simplemistakesingeography,whichhavebeencommoninpastcensuses. Inthecourseofmyexamination,IidentifiedCensusBureauerrorswhichexcludedmanyHoustoniansfromourofficialcountbymistakenlyassigningthemtounincorporatedHarrisCounty. Iftheseerrorshadnotoccurred,HoustonsofficialCensuspopulationwouldhavebeenover2,100,000.OncetheCensusbureaureleasesitsresultsforHoustonandthesurroundingcounties,thePlanningandDevelopmentDepartmentexaminestheresultsatblockleveltolookforanomaliesanderrors. WhenCensusenumeratorscollecttheirdata,itisassignedtospecificblockscreatedbylinesformedbyphysicalfeaturesrecognizabletotheeye,suchasroadsandstreams,andbytheboundarylinesofmajorunitsofgovernment,suchascitiesandcounties.TheCensusBureaudoesnotrecognizepropertylinesorutilitydistrictboundariesinestablishingtheboundariesoftheirblocks. ThecitylimitoftheCityofHoustonishighlycomplex,especiallysincetheadventoflimitedpurposeannexationsin2001. Theselimited

8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

2/6

AReporttotheHoustonCityCouncilonthe2010CensusResults Page2of6ByJerryWood February24,2011

purposeannexationsoftenfollowutilitydistrictboundaries,subdivisionboundaries,orpropertylines,andcanbedifficultfortheCensusBureautoreplicateinitssystem. InexaminingthecensusresultsatblocklevelIfoundmanyinstancesinwhichtheCensusBureausversionofthecitylimitsdidnotconformtotheactualcitylimits. Additionally,someofthelimitedpurposeannexationswerenotpickedupbytheCensusBureau,andmanytractswerenotincludedwithintheareatheCensusBureaurecognizedasbeinginthecity. Mostareasannexedforlimitedpurposesdonotincluderesidentsatthetimeofannexation.However,afterannexationsomecommercialtractshavebeendevelopedwithapartmentsandthepopulationwithinthoselimitedpurposeareasiseligible,underTexaslaw,tovoteinCityelections. ExamplesoftheexclusionofactualHoustonresidentsfromtheCensusBureaupopulationcountfortheCityfollow.Insixcases,theexcludedpopulationcouldbeeasilyidentifiedbecauseitwaslocatedinablockformedbylinesrecognizedbytheCensusBureau.Inthesecases,entireCensusblockswereexcludedfromtheCitycountandthisexcludedpopulationiseasilyidentified. IntheFallCreekneighborhoodontheNorthBeltEast(ExhibitA),theCensusBureaufailedtoincludeallofthelimitedpurposeannexationinitsdefinitionoftheCityofHouston,andexcludedanentireapartmentcomplex. Partofthatcomplexwasinawholeblockthatcontains206Houstonians.TheotherportionsofthatparticularlimitedpurposeannexationareawereincludedinblocksthatheldresidentswhoareproperlyattributedtounincorporatedHarrisCounty. IntheCrosswindsPlazadevelopmentontheNorthBeltbetweenJohnFKennedyBoulevardandtheEastexFreeway,theCensusBureaushiftedacomplicatedCityboundary,andexcluded174Houston

residents,

while

placing

other

Houston

residents

in

blocks

with

County

residents.

Infourcases,theBureausversionofthecitylimitlinewassimplydisplacedashortdistancefrom,andparallelto,theactuallocationofthecitylimitline. InEastexOakssubdivision,forinstance,theCensusBureauserrorplacedelevenHoustonresidentsinablockformedbyadrainageditchwhichwasrecognizedasageographicalline,andbytheirerroneousversionofthecitylimit. Theactualcitylimitandthedrainageditcharethesameline,andtheblocktheCensusBureauattributedtounincorporatedHarrisCountyshouldhavebeenincludedinHoustonstotalpopulation. ThesamethingoccurredalongthesouthernboundaryoftheSummerwoodsubdivision,inwhich21Houstoniansweremistakenlyexcluded,andthewesternboundaryoftheformerInterstateMUD,wherefivewereexcluded. IntheLakeshoresubdivisionaroundLakeHouston(ExhibitB),theCensusBureaudisplacedtheirversionofthecitylimitforalongdistanceandmanagedtoexcludeentireblocks.Atotalof149Houstonresidents,alongwithadditionalhomes,wereexcludedandaredescribedbelow.TheadditionalexclusionsofactualHoustonresidentsinLakeshoreresultedinmanyhomesbeingincludedinblocksthepopulationofwhichshouldnotbecountedintheCity. Asaresult,

8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

3/6

AReporttotheHoustonCityCouncilonthe2010CensusResults Page3of6ByJerryWood February24,2011

theonlywaytoidentifyhowmanyHoustonianswereexcludedistomakeanestimatebasedontherooftopsofthehomeslocatedintheseblocksthatarealsointheCityofHoustonbutexcludedbytheBureau,andassigningtheblockspopulationproportionately. Theresultofthiscalculationisanestimateshowinganother109Houstoniansexcludedintheseblocks. Thesameprocess,usingHCADinformationonthenumberofapartmentsinthe apartmentcomplexesmistakenlyplacedinblocksincludingunincorporatedHarrisCountypopulationintheCrosswindsPlazadevelopment,yieldsanestimateofanadditional140excludedHoustonians. Again,andusingthesameHCADinformation,Iestimatethatanadditional196HoustoniansintheexcludedFallCreekapartmentcomplexwereimproperlyassignedtounincorporatedHarrisCounty. Finally,adisplacedcitylimitlinenearWestOaksMallexcludedpatiohomescontaininganestimated17residentswhoshouldhavebeenincludedintheCityofHoustonpopulationtotal.Becauseitiseasytoplacepopulationonthewrongsideofastreet,ashasoftenhappenedbefore,IalsolookedforexamplesofresidencesnearthecitylimitlinethatmighthavebeenaccidentallycodedtotheothersideofthestreetandoutoftheCity. IncheckinganewapartmentcomplexonPearlandParkwaybetweentheSouthBeltandClearCreek(ExhibitC),whichistheCitysboundaryinthisarea,IdiscoveredthattheblockcontainingtheapartmentcomplexwasuninhabitedaccordingtotheBureau. Further,IcheckedthesurroundingblocksandcouldfindnoevidencethatthispopulationwaslocatedinanyotherblockwithintheCityofHouston. ItmayhavebeenplacedinBrazoriaCounty,oritmaynothavebeencountedatall.Thiscomplex,whichwasoccupiedatthetimeoftheCensuscount,has292units,accordingtoHCAD.

Using

a

15%

vacancy

rate

yields

an

estimated

population

of

this

block

of

658

uncounted

Houstonians.FurthereffortwillbenecessarytoprepareathoroughanalysisoferrorstosubmittotheCensusBureauforcorrectionaftertheybeginacceptingappealsafterJune1,2011. Asearchforuncountedpopulationwillbemadeinlocationsnotontheperipheryofthecity,butwillrequireamorecomplicatedanalysisinvolvingidentificationofhousingunitsandconfirmationthattheapartmentswereoccupiedatthetimeofthecensusenumerationinApril2010. Iftheerrorsalreadyidentifiedhadnotoccurred,thepopulationcountfortheCityonApril1,2010,wouldcertainlyhavebeen566residentshigher,or2,100,017,and,dependingontheaccuracyoftheestimates,mayhavebeenashighas2,101,137.

8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

4/6

8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

5/6

8/7/2019 A Report to the Houston City Council on the 2010 Census Results

6/6