a region with two stories……….growing established markets & developing emerging markets...
TRANSCRIPT
A region with two stories……….growing established markets & developing emerging markets
Aaron IoriRegional Manager SE Asia/Greater China
Address outline
Overview of markets
Factors underpinning demand
Key issues
Introduction
Region dynamics, characteristic & definition
Emerging markets Established markets
Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Philippines & Thailand
Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan & Malaysia
low volume importers
growth opportunities
developing supply chains
sustained volumes
developed retail and foodservice positioning
developed supply chains
Economic growth + Rising population = increase demand
Australian beef exports
Source: DAFF
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140'000 tonnes swt
China Hong Kong Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines
Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Australian beef exports - change from 2000 to 2009
Source: DAFF
SEA & Greater China USA Japan Korea Middle East EU
0
50
100
-50
-100
-150
'000 tonnes swt
NB: SEA & Greater China includes China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam
9%57%
476%59%-29%
82%
Australian beef exports
Source: DAFF
Japan USA Korea SEA & Greater China
Indonesia EU Middle East
0
100
200
300
400
500'000 tonnes sw
2000 2004 2009
NB: SEA & Greater China includes China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam
Australian beef exports
Beef exports to South-East Asia/China by cut
Source:DAFF
Manf19%
Shin/Shank26%Topside
3%Thick Flank
4%Neck6%
Blade10%
Striploin5%
Intercostals8%
Silverside1%
Cube Roll4%
Other13%
Manf36%
Shin/Shank17%
Topside2%
Thick Flank8%
Neck5% Blade
8%Striploin
3%
Intercostals4%
Silverside4%
Cube Roll2%
Other11%
2004Volume: 47,465 tonnes sw
Note: Other includes brisket, rump, short rib, ribs, chuck roll, thin flank, carcase, chuch & blade.
2009Volume: 130,863 tonnes sw
Beef exports by cut
Manufacturing beef exports to South-East Asia/Chinas
Source: DAFF
manf36%
shin/shank17%
thick flank8%
neck5%
blade8%
striploin3%
intercostals4% silverside
4%
other15%
Indonesia49%
Philippines29%
Other SEA/Chinas22%
200946,879 tonnes sw Destinations
Manufacturing beef distribution
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60'000 tonnes sw
0
200
400
600
800'000 head
beef live cattle
Australian beef exports & live cattle to Indonesia
Source: DAFF, ABS
Strong growth in Indonesian demand for both live cattle & beef
Where our product goes…
Outlook positive
So what is underpinning demand for beef across the region?
Concentration of population growth in AsiaDistribution of additional world population (2010 – 20)
9%
29%
0%
58%4%
Rapidly increasing populations
Indonesia(52 million growth - 24%)
Philippines(39 million growth - 45%)
China(150 million growth - 11%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300millions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140millions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600millions
Economic growth for key countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Update - Jan 2010
World US EU Japan UK Russia China India ASEAN-5
0
5
10
15
-5
-10
year-on-year % change
2009 2010f 2011f
Economic growth
Forecast income growth to 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10PercentAverage annual growth in per capita incomes 2008-18
0
50
100
150
200
-50
millionsGrowth in population 2008-18
Source: IDB Database, USDA Agriculture Long Term Forecasts
Projected beef import growth 2008 to 2018: FAPRI
0
100
200
300
400
500'000 tonnes cw
Expansion of modern retail & foodservice
But all this is not without a challenge!
Market Access
Food security
Free trade agreements– ASEAN (complete)
– China (underway)
– Indonesia (yet to commence)
Market Access restrictions– China
– Indonesia
Plant accreditation– China
– Malaysia
FMD zoning issue in Indonesia– Brazil & Indian beef
Halal
The global financial crisis
More gloom for US housing markets
In many of these countries we are competing against the “world” for a share of beef $$$
Source: Philippines Central Bureau of Statistics
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140'000 tonnes sw
India South America
Australia NZ
US Canada
EU Other
Note: Other includes Asia excluding India
Competitor protein source...
Beef consumption low….
Source: FAO (beef, sheepmeat), USDA (pork, poultry)
6.9 7 7.5 8 8.5 8.9 9.3 8.5 8.7 8.5
43 43.9 44.7 46 47.1 49.4 50.5 47.3 51.1 53
13.3 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.2 14.5 14.9 16.216.9 17.2
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.33.8 3.9 4.1
4.3 4.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
20
40
60
80
100Million tonnes cwt
Beef Pork Poultry Sheepmeat
NB: FAO data - 2008 preliminary, 2009 estimate Pork not included in Indonesia and Malaysia
Conclusion
Due to growth of populations and growth of incomes beef markets in developing Asia are likely to grow strongly over coming years – albeit, at times, erratically.
Competition in these markets is fierce, but Australian beef is increasingly well regarded & we are assisted by our proximity.
MLA will continue to invest in these markets to secure our long term future.
Thank you