a proposal for creation of a reusable launch vehicle fleet for lockheed martin

A Proposal for A Proposal for Creation of a Reusable Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle Fleet Launch Vehicle Fleet

for Lockheed Martinfor Lockheed Martin

Corwin OlsonCorwin OlsonTurner WrightTurner WrightTim HonkerTim HonkerClint HenryClint Henry

ASE 333TASE 333TApril 29April 29thth, 2004, 2004

Reusable Launch Vehicles

The ProblemThe Problem

• Large demand among public for “Space Tourism”• No affordable access to space

The Problem The SolutionSolution

ImplementationConclusion

Corwin Olson

The Problem: Vast unrealized profits


DemandDemand



Corwin Olson

Wish to travel to space by age group (Japan) Wish to travel to space by age group (U.S.)Collins

Collins (1995) Study- 3030 people: 70% willing to spend several months’ salary

• ~$1 trillion/year scale of activity (2003 estimate)

Ticket Price (U.S. Ticket Price (U.S. $)$)

DemandDemand

LowLow MediuMediumm

HighHigh

$10,000$10,000 3,000,003,000,0000

150,00150,0000

6,0006,000

$100,000$100,000 20,00020,000 1,0001,000 6060

$1,000,000$1,000,000 200200 7070 2020

Collins

Commercial Space Transportation Study (1994)

Table 1: Worldwide Annual Passenger Demand for Space Tourism

• “Bottoms Up” Method based on income, age, and ticket price• $60 million vs. $20 million

CSTS Alliance


Lack of AccessLack of Access

• Affordability Ex. Space Shuttle- $10,000/lb into orbit All three space tourists paid $20 million

• Safety Ex. Challenger, Columbia

• No vehicles designed for tourists, general public• Governmental red tape



Corwin Olson


Why solve it?Why solve it?



Corwin Olson

• Profit

• Established infrastructure

• Power Transfer

• Prestige


The SolutionThe Solution



Turner Wright

ProblemProblem Unaffordable access to spaceUnaffordable access to space Desire for Space Tourism among Desire for Space Tourism among

eliteelite

SOLUTIONSOLUTION A fleet of reusable launch vehicles A fleet of reusable launch vehicles

(RLV’s)(RLV’s)




Turner Wright

http://www.xprize.com/


Level of ReusabilityLevel of Reusability



Turner Wright

FULLY reusableFULLY reusable Capable of taking off the surface of the earthCapable of taking off the surface of the earth Achieving sub-orbital flightAchieving sub-orbital flight Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS

present at launchpresent at launch Takes everything it needs with it and backTakes everything it needs with it and back

Space Shuttle is partially reusableSpace Shuttle is partially reusable External HExternal H22, O, O22 liquid fuel tank isn’t reused liquid fuel tank isn’t reused




Turner Wright

http://www.psy.fsu.edu/~thompson/shuttle/shuttle-b1b.jpg


Reusable Launch VehiclesReusable Launch Vehicles



Turner Wright

Launch OptionsLaunch Options Vertical- Saturn V, STS, ApolloVertical- Saturn V, STS, Apollo Horizontal- X Prize contendersHorizontal- X Prize contenders

Landing OptionsLanding Options Horizontal landing (STS)Horizontal landing (STS) Vertical landing (splashdown or over land)Vertical landing (splashdown or over land)

For RLV commercial fleetFor RLV commercial fleet Horizontal takeoff, landingHorizontal takeoff, landing Tailored to Tailored to peoplepeople


Why a Fleet of RLV’s?Why a Fleet of RLV’s?



Turner Wright

Lowers the costLowers the cost Safer, more reliableSafer, more reliable

Dependent on consumer reliabilityDependent on consumer reliability Not federal fundsNot federal funds Are enough people in the market?Are enough people in the market?


Lowering CostLowering Cost



Turner Wright

X-prizeX-prize $2-$20 million$2-$20 million STS D&DSTS D&D $10 billion$10 billion STS launchSTS launch $245 million/year$245 million/year STS infrastructureSTS infrastructure $2.8 billion/year$2.8 billion/year RLV fleet costRLV fleet cost $250 million-$2 billion$250 million-$2 billion

Design and DevelopmentDesign and Development Launches- fuel costLaunches- fuel cost Mission Operations- variableMission Operations- variable Infrastructure- NOT included in estimateInfrastructure- NOT included in estimate

Landing strips, terminals, administrationLanding strips, terminals, administration


Why so much less?Why so much less?



Turner Wright

Suborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travelSuborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travel Low orbit for tourists, not actual missionsLow orbit for tourists, not actual missions Less KE requiredLess KE required

InfrastructureInfrastructure Cement landing strips instead of launch padCement landing strips instead of launch pad Eventually take over airlines? Eventually take over airlines?

DesignDesign Fuel efficient, cost efficientFuel efficient, cost efficient Different parameters than shuttleDifferent parameters than shuttle


How It Will Solve ProblemHow It Will Solve Problem



Turner Wright

Compare prices for transportationCompare prices for transportation Greyhound BusGreyhound Bus $50$50 Commercial AirlinerCommercial Airliner $600$600 ConcordeConcorde $10,000$10,000 Space AdventuresSpace Adventures $20,000,000$20,000,000 RLV fleetRLV fleet $10,000-$50,000$10,000-$50,000

Afford the ConcordeAfford the Concorde ride the RLV ride the RLV Possible for elite classPossible for elite class


Alternative SolutionsAlternative Solutions



Turner Wright

Vertical LaunchVertical Launch Not as convenient as airlinesNot as convenient as airlines Need to walk right up to doorNeed to walk right up to door

Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown)Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown) Costumers waiting in the oceanCostumers waiting in the ocean Picked up by aircraft carrierPicked up by aircraft carrier Not exactly best PRNot exactly best PR


The Solution The Solution ImplementationImplementation

Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle though 4 stages

1.Increase Research & Development budget

2.Design Vehicle3.Prototyping and Testing4.Mass Production, Infrastructure

supportThe Problem The Solution

Solution Implementation

Conclusion

Tim Honker


Increase R & DIncrease R & D

Estimated Cost of 1 prototype to LH: $200 million over

5 years



Tim Honker

2002 Yr. Lockheed Martin R&D budget: $860 million

Estimated Cost to LH for mature $2 billionspaceplane in 15 years

Estimated Cost to taxpayers for mature >$100 billion overspaceplane on current schedule 40 years


Design of SpaceplaneDesign of Spaceplane



Tim Honker

David AshfordSpaceplane Development Strategy


Prototyping & TestingPrototyping & Testing



Tim Honker

Keys to expedited and economical production

•Maximizing use of proven technology

•Test new components individually

•Using models for overall structure – combine new and old


Mass Production & Mass Production & InfrastructureInfrastructure



Tim Honker

Minimizing Risk, Maximizing profit

•Create foundation in other stable industries

•Keep other industries “invested”

•Build public demand before final release

Spread financial risk and lure of profit


Third Party InvolvementThird Party Involvement

Private Sector•Other companies•X-Prize competition•Space Tourists

Government•NASA•Military

Clinton Henry

The Problem The Solution Solution Implementation Conclusion


EthicsEthics

Safety•Is the risk of failure worth sending people into space?

Service•Engineers pledge to “give the utmost of performance”

Profit•Driving byproduct of research and development•Maintaining prestige

Clinton Henry



RecommendationsRecommendations

• Public relations

• Recognize and learn from predecessors1.Space Shuttle2.X-333.X-Prize

Clinton Henry



ConclusionsConclusions

•Statement and description of the problem

•The solution to the problem

•Implementation of the solution

•Other considerations

Clinton Henry



ReferencesReferences

Studt, T., Duga, J., “Smaller Increase Forecast for US Research Spending,” January 2002, http://www.rdmag.com/features/0201fore23.asp, (11 Apr. 2004).

Ashford, David, “Spaceflight Revolution,” Imperial College Press, London, 2002.

Collins, P., “Space Tourism Market Demand and the Transportation Infrastructure,” July 2003, http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/space_tourism_market_ demand_and_the_transportation_infrastructure.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004).

Crouch, G., “Researching the Space Tourism Market”, June 2001, http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/researching_the_space_tourism_mark

et.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004).

Wertz, James R. and Larson, Wiley J. “Reducing Space Mission Cost.” Microcosm Press, Torrance, CA: 1996.

a proposal for creation of a reusable launch vehicle fleet for lockheed martin

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