a new innovation to enable nms provide climate information at local level
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A New Innovation to Enable NMS Provide Climate Information at Local Level
Tufa Dinku [email protected]
Outline
I. ThevalueofClimateData
II. ChallengestoAvailabilityClimateData
III. TheENACTSApproachIV. WhatisNext
• PuCngobservedandanEcipatedclimateintocontext;
• Assessingclimate-relatedbaselinerisks;
• Understandingthenatureofclimatevariabilityandtrends;
• UnderstandingtheimpactsofclimateonagriculturalproducEon;
• ImprovingcropproducEonforecastsforagriculturalplanningandfoodsecuritymanagement;
• Index-basedagriculturalinsurancethatallowsfarmerstospreadrisk;
• ….
I.TheValueClimateData
II.ChallengestoAvailabilityofClimateData
• NumberofweatherstaEonsnotadequateovermanypartsAfrica
• MoststaEonsarelocatedalongmainroads
èLimitedavailabilityclimateinformaEonandservicestotheruralcommunity
• SeriousgapsinobservaEons(missingdata)
• QuesEonabledataquality• Limitedaccessanduseoftheavailabledata
Declining/InterruptedObservaEons
Declining investment Civil unrest
Declining volunteer stations
Whataboutgloballyavailabledatasets?• MostoftheglobalproductsthemselvesdependonnaEonal
observaEon:§ Thereforesufferfromthethesameproblem:
Average (2001 to 2010) number of stations per 100km X 100km grid box used by GPCC gridded rainfall product
WhataboutgloballyavailabledatasetsTheglobaldatasetsmaynotrepresentlocalfeatureswellbecauseofspaEalresoluEonsor/andinsufficientobservaEons.
Station Satellite
III.TheENACTSApproach
StaEon Satellite
Combined
Combining station data with global proxies: Rainfall
Steps1. Assessavailabledata 2.Performqualitycheck
3.Merging
ENACTSOutputs
• Built capacity of NMS
• Quality controlled stations data
• Over 30/50-years of rainfall and temperature data for every 4km grid across each country:
o Now data available where there are no stations
AdvantagesofENACTSData
Rainfall Stations used in ENACTS
Rainfall Stations available globally
AdvantagesofENACTS-basedproducts
CMAP ENACTS
ENACTSismuchmorethanjustdata:TheThreePillarsofENACTS
Improve Availability • Build capacity of NMHS • Quality Control station data • Combine station data with proxies • Improve seasonal forecast
E N A C T S
Enhance Access • Install IRI Data Library
• Develop online tools for data analysis and visualization
• Create mechanisms for data sharing
Promote Use Engage users:
• Raise awareness • Build capacity of users to understand and use climate info • Involve users in product development
ImprovingAccess:MapRooms
ImprovingAccess:ClimateAnalysisTool
Monthly mean TMax
ImprovingAccess:ClimateMonitoringMaproom
From left to right: dekadal rainfall, dekadal rainfall anomaly, cumulative(since the start of the current season) anomaly, and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
Dekadal rainfall Dekadal anomaly Cumulative anomaly SPI
ImprovingAccess:ClimateMonitoringTool
Probability of wet OND season during El Nino
ImprovingAccess:ClimateForecastTool
i. Explore potential impacts of ENSO/IOD phases
ImprovingAccess:ClimateForecastTool
ii.Translatesseasonalforecastfromterciletorainfallamounts
+
MoreOutputs
• Installation of the IRI Data Library at NMHS o A powerful tool for generating climate information
• Unprecedented online access to information products: o Satisfies the needs of many users o Overcomes (partly) the challenges of data access
• Engagement with user communities
ENACTS Countries
ENACTS Countries: Ethiopia Gambia Ghana Madagascar Mali Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Kenya Uganda Malawi
WhatisNext?
2. Expand ENACTS to the rest of Africa
1. Strengthen ENACTS where it has been implemented Ø Generate daily climate time series and products
Ø Add more climate variables (RH, PET/ET, sunshine…)
Ø Add sector-specific Maprooms: Agriculture, Water, Disaster, Health, …
Ø Improve accuracy, spatial resolution and presentation of seasonal climate forecasts