a national energy perspective · future of nuclear •pros –carbon-free (the largest low carbon...

A National Energy Perspective

Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Director

Budapest University of Technology and Economics

Institute of Nuclear Techniques

CAETS/HAE Symposium, Budapest, Hungary

June 26-29, 2013

Olkiluoto-3, Finland (Source: TVO) Olkiluoto-3, Finland (Source: Google)

Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 2

Electricity supply in Hungary • Annual electricity consumption ~ 43 TWh

• Large import share in electricity consumption

– The cheapest source at the moment

• Dependency on Russian natural gas (80%)

• Small scale use of renewables

• Largest contribution: Paks Nuclear Power Plant

– ~15 TWh energy production (i.e. 46% of the domestic production, 37% in electricity consumption in 2012)

• Paks NPP: 4*500 MWe units (Russian-designed and -constructed pressurized water reactors)

– Power-upgrade project

– Lifetime-extension project (from originally planned 30 years to 50 years)

– Planned shutdown: 2032-2037

CAETS/HAE Symposium 2013

Primary energy sources of Hungarian electricity system in 2011

(Source: Hungarian Energy Office)

Paks NPP (Source: Google)

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

ne

ttó

villa

mo

se

ne

rgia

-fo

gy

as

ztá

s, T

Wh

tény várható nagy növekedés kis növekedés

Development of electricity consumption

1,5 %/a

1,0 %/a

9000 MW

6400 MW

10 000 MW

7500 MW

11 000 MW

8000 MW

Ins. Cap. MW

Peak MW Different design scenarios

Due to the economics crisis measurable short term

decrease of electricity consumption

Net

ele

ctr

icity c

onsum

ption, T

Wh

/year

Fact Anticipated Faster growth Slower growth

Source: Tombor Antal, MVM, 2009.

Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 3 CAETS/HAE Symposium 2013

Possible development of power plants

1940 1940

1510670

2600

2500

1680

4000

1000

410

300

450

2008 2025

9000 MW

10 000 MW

1660

440

2200

700 1500

1060

440

2000

5000 MW 5000 MW

Nuc-

lear

Coal

Gas

Rene-

wable

Possible new capacities:

Rem

ain

ing

R

ep

lacem

en

t N

ew

cap

acit

y

Renewable

Natural

gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Design fuel


5

Nuclear energy in the world

• In June 2013: – 434 nuclear plants are operating in

the world with 370 GWe total installed capacity

– 69 NPP units are under construction

• State of the art: – Gen3, Gen3+ (passive systems,

increased redundancy, double wall containment, standardized designs)

• New constructions in Europe: – Finland: Olkiluoto-3

– France: Flamanville-3

Large delays and cost overrun in both cases: lessons to learn concerning project management, licensing, education, quality control etc.


Regional distribution of nuclear plants

(Source: IAEA PRIS)

Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Olkiluoto-3 construction (Source: Areva)

6

The effects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident

• March 11, 2011 – historical earthquake and tsunami hit Japan

• 15 m high flooding at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP site – Six boiling water reactors (BWR)

– Units 1-4: long term station blackout + loss of ultimate heat sink (no cooling for the fuel)

– Fuel melting due to insufficient cooling of the fuel

– Large amount of hydrogen generated and exploded in Units 1, 3, 4

• Very large (~EBq) radioactive emission into the environment (with the explosions and with the temporary cooling systems)

• Level 7 accident on the INES (International Nuclear Event Scale) – same as Chernobyl

• Very moderate health consequences (quick evacuation + lower fall-out on land)


The well-known pictures from Fukushima and their consequence Source: IAEA PRIS

Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI

7

The effects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident • Immediate effects

– Temporary shutdown of Japanese units (currently only 2 of 50 units are in operation)

– Shutdown of 8 reactors in Germany in March 2011

• Case of Germany – Traditionally anti-nuclear population, but 17 units operated at

the beginning of 2011 with 20 300 MW installed capacity

– After Fukushima accident decision on nuclear phase-out: all units will be shutdown until 2022

– „Energiewende” – shift from traditional energy sources to renewable sources (silent increase of coal and natural gas)

– Subsidy for wind and solar plants with long term contracts + guaranteed takeover of generated electricity

– CO2 emmission increased in 2012

• Grid instabilities – Are we prepared for large scale electricity grid collapses?

• Effect on European electricity market prices – Large role of private households on financing the subsidies

– Surcharge of 5.3 ¢ / kWh in 2013 (from 3.6 ¢ / kWh in 2012)

– Small (PV, wind) producers do not take part in grid development and do not contribute to frequency control

– Overproduction in renewables – high German household electricity prices, while the wholesale market prices are low in Europe

– The German population still supports the transition – but at what cost will the situation change?


2011-ben

leállítva

2022-ig

áll le

Shutdown

in 2011

NPPs and wind turbines in Germany Source: KTG, Wikipedia


8

Nuclear energy in the UK • 16 operating nuclear units producing 18% of domestic electricity

• Very old GCR units – almost all units will be shutdown until 2025

• 2006: new nuclear construction preparations started – Nuclear site licensing – eight sites were sold

– Generic Design Assessment – design licensing process for originally 4, later 2 reactor types (EPR from Areva and AP1000 from Westinghouse)

• Electricity market reform for stabilizing economical framework for low carbon technologies (including nuclear)

– Carbon floor price (£16 / t CO2 from 2013 rising to £30 /t CO2 in 2020)

– Contract for Difference (CfD) model – special feed-in tariff contracts for long term to remove long-term exposure to electricity price volatility

• Hinkley Point C: two EPRs planned by EDF Energy


Hinkley Point A,B (4 GCR units) and Hinkley Point C (EDF Energy, 2 EPRs planned)


9

Nuclear energy – large supplier countries • Russia – 33 operating reactors (~10% share in electricity production)

– Plans to commission further 10 GWe until 2020

– Export of VVER types after 1990: 5 operating units, 4 units under construction, 12 units under preparation

– VVER-1000 and VVER-1200 (Generation III) types

• China – 17 operating reactors (2% share in electricity production), 28 units under construction, including 4 AP1000, 2 EPR units!

• France – 58 operating units (only PWRs, 75% share in production), 1 EPR unit under construction in France

– Technology export: EPR (Areva) – 3 units under construction abroad, + Atmea (Mitsubishi-Areva)


Source: WNA Nuclear construction in China (Source: CBS)


10

Nuclear energy – critical issues • Main difficulties for new nuclear

construction: – Economical conditions

• Financing of the construction

• Long term conditions of the electricity market

– Heavy component manufacturing capacities limited (Japan, South-Korea, Russia, France)

– Instrumentation & Control issues

– Human resource management – ensuring operating staff and appropriate authority, research, management personnel importance of education!

– Political risks

– Closing of the nuclear fuel cycle to be solved


EPR control room (Source: Areva)


Chalon heavy component factory (Source: Areva)

Reactor pressure vessel transportation at Doosan

Heavy Industries (Source: Doosan)

Future of nuclear • Two years after Fukushima…

– many countries resumed the construction or preparation of new nuclear constructions

– in the USA (the largest reactor operator in the world) two new units are under construction now – after 25 years break

– newcomer countries: e.g. United Arabic Emirates, Jordan, Vietnam, Turkey

• OECD IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 – Nuclear production can grow with 58% to 2035

– The global share of nuclear production will decrease from 13 to 12%

– The main role has China, Korea, India and Russia

– 580 GWe installed nuclear capacity likely in 2035

– The economical advantage of nuclear is not more so significant

• The future is uncertain, it depends on many economical-social-political factors


But nuclear remains an important player in

electricity supply!

Vogtle 3 – First concrete pouring in March 2013 (Source: nuclearstreet.com)

VC Summer 2 – Turbine Island construction in August 2012 (Source: nuclearstreet.com)

Future of nuclear • Pros

– carbon-free (the largest low carbon energy

source in the EU)

– high load factor (>90%)

– easy storage of nuclear fuel for years

– high security of energy supply

– low operational costs

– waste collected, not dispergated in the

environment

• Cons

– safety has to be ensured for long term

– high investment costs

– political risks

– easy to be feared

– public acceptance

– waste repository


(Photo: Attila Aszódi)

(Source: IEA)

Perspectives of nuclear energy in Hungary • The decision on the new units

depends on world economy and on European electricity market

• Possible reactor types and vendors: – AP1000 (Westinghouse)

– Atmea-1 (Mitsubishi-Westinghouse)

– EPR (Areva)

– AES-2006 (Atomstroyexport)

– APR1400? (KHNP)

• Main aspects of the decision – Safety aspects

• CDF<10-5/year,

• technical solutions for severe accidents

– Technical aspects • Generation III+ ,

• no prototype reactor,

• at least 60 years lifetime with >90% availability

– Economical aspects • Competitive generating cost

(short construction period!)

• Financing of the construction


EPR, VVER-1200 (AES-2006), AP1000 and the Atmea-1 (Source: npp.hu)

Site of Paks NPP (Map: Google)

Area for

new units

Perspectives of nuclear energy in Hungary • EU directive: all member countries must have a

radioactive waste management plan by 2015

• Hungary: 2 operating facility for low and intermediate level waste

– Püspökszilágy site for non-power origin waste (shallow disposal facility, commissioned in 1976)

– National Radioactive Waste Repository in Bátaapáti (250 m deep disposal facility, commissioned in 2008/2012)

• For NPP spent fuel: interim storage facility at Paks (modular, air-cooled facility for ~12000 fuel assemblies)

• Final spent fuel disposal: research to be started soon at Boda

• Final goal: to close the fuel cycle (with recycling the spent fuel)

– Allegro research facility: gas-cooled fast demonstration reactor

• Pth=75 MW, 500 oC coolant temperature, He primary and secondary coolant

• Regional (V4G4) project

• Start of operation: 2023 - 2025

– Investigation of thorium-based fuel cycle (introducing fast breeder reactors)


Radwaste geological disposal in Bátaapáti (Photo: A. Aszódi)

Design of Allegro Reactor (GFR) (Source: IAEA)

a national energy perspective · future of nuclear •pros –carbon-free (the largest low carbon...

Documents