role of nuclear cogeneration in a low carbon energy … of nuclear cogeneration in a low carbon...
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© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a
Low Carbon Energy Future?
NC2I Conference, Brussels, 14-15 September 2015
Dr. Henri PAILLERE Senior Nuclear Analyst,
Nuclear Development Division
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Nuclear Reactors: Generations I to IV
Bulk of today’s nuclear fleet
New build (essentially after
Fukushima Daiichi accident)
But only a fraction of today’s 438 reactors operate in cogeneration mode (essentially district heating)
(estimated 1% of total nuclear heat used to produce non-electric applications)
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Electricity Generation by Source (%), World and OECD
Nuclear energy is:
• The largest source of low C electricity in OECD countries (18% > 13.4% hydro)
• The 2nd largest at world level behind hydro (10.8% < 16.5% hydro)
2/3 world electricity still produced from fossil fuel!
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But what about other sectors?
industry (process heat & industrial processes (H2 production, synthetic fuel
production, desalination…), buildings (district heating), transport sectors
Can nuclear energy also make a difference?
Nuclear energy = low carbon source of electricity AND heat
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Enhance security of energy supply
Improve energy (fuel) efficiencies
Reduce CO2 emissions
Minimize heat losses (2/3 heat wasted in current
nuclear steam cycles)
(non-nuclear) CHP since long applied in
many industrial sectors
Why nuclear cogeneration?
Potential in 4 areas: (i) desalination (ii) district
heating in residential/commercial areas (iii) industrial
process heat (iv) fuel synthesis (e.g. Hydrogen)
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Application Level of maturity Possible new projects &
recent activity
Challenges
District
Heating
Demonstrated at industrial
scale & currently operating
(Russia, Switzerland, …)
Option for future new build in
Finland or Poland, feasibility
studies in France for coupling
existing NPPs to DH systems
Differences between
electricity & heat markets.
Economic assessment.
Desalination Tested at industrial scale in
the past (BN-350)
Small small scale
applications in NPPs to
supply fresh water to plant
Huge needs in the future
(projects in the MENA region:
Egypt, Saudi Arabia?)
Complexity and scale of
investments in water
infrastructures.
Public acceptance?
Long term?
High
temperature
process heat
Demonstrated at industrial
scale for low temp. steam
applications.
R&D HTR and cogeneration
NHDD project in Korea “clean
steel”
NGNP Alliance & EU’s NC2I
collaboration
Synthetic fuel production
Business model (nuclear
operator industrial
application operator)
Licensing, safety, public
acceptance, Long term
Hydrogen
production
Demonstrated at lab scale for
thermochemical cycles
(HTTR) and HTE
NHDD in Korea, on-going R&D
(Gen IV)
Hydrogen economy?
Competition with electric
mobility?
Nuclear hybrid
energy system
R&D on low carbon energy
systems involving nuclear &
variable renewables
Assessment of services
provided by nuclear (electricity,
storage, heat)
Economic assessment
Long term prospects
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https://www.oecd-nea.org/pub/techroadmap/
© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Key technologies to reduce emissions in the power
sector, from 6DS to 2DS: (from IEA ETP 2015)
Basket of low C technologies (incl. CCS) + ability to perform electricity savings
Cumulatively, nuclear (≈wind) is the technology allowing most CO2 savings up to 2050
Example of policy measures: CO2 price to increase to 100 USD/t CO2 in 2030, 170
USD/t CO2 in 2050
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CO2 is not the only problem! Air pollution (from particles
from fossil fuel combustion) is a greater health problem
WHO:
7 million
deaths/year due
to air pollution
(from cooking
stoves, transport,
and fossil-fuelled
power and
industrial plants
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Nuclear since 2010, update of early roadmap
• Fukushima Daiichi accident (March 2011)
– Impact on energy policies & public acceptance
– Safety evaluations and upgrades
• Aftermath of financial crisis (2007-2008) and
economic crisis
• Uranium market depreciation
• Shale gas revolution in the US (and US coal prices)
– Also affecting competitiveness of “nuclear cogeneration” vs. gas
• Cost overruns and delays in some FOAK Gen III projects
• Lower than anticipated costs for onshore wind and solar
PV
Eco
no
mic
s / C
om
pe
titio
n / M
ark
ets
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Nuclear in the 2C Scenario (2DS)
• 930 GW by 2050 (up from 390 GW today)
• 17% share electricity (up from 11% today)
• A formidable challenge (multiply current capacity by 2.3 in 35 years) –
investments, policies, construction, public acceptance
• Limited deployment of technologies of Gen IV technologies (FR, VHTR)
and non-electric applications by 2050 (but demonstration is needed!)
(All capacities are gross capacities)
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IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap on
nuclear cogeneration
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Conclusions (1) Over 750 reactor-years of non-electric applications of nuclear
energy– though not always in a commercial / liberalised
market environment.
Cogeneration: Can improve the overall efficiency of NPPs;
Opens different streams of revenues to operators;
Can contribute significantly to reduction CO2 emissions from non-
power sector
Has a potential to play in future low C energy systems, where nuclear
would provide electricity & storage through production of fuels
Selling commercially both electricity and non-electric
products remains a challenge. Some economic assessment
tools exist but standardised methodologies for non-electric
applications missing.
Launch of an OECD/NEA Study in July 2015 (EC contribution
would be welcome!) 13
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Conclusions (2)
Significant development of non-electric applications of nuclear
energy are not expected in the short to mid-term, especially
if/where fossil-based alternatives (gas) remain cheap. Carbon
constraints / pricing is required
But RD&D is needed to prepare long term deployment
NEA launched the Nuclear Innovation 2050 initiative
Work needed to provide information to general public and
policy makers about nuclear cogeneration
OECD/NEA is following with great interest the development of
the NC2I in Europe, as well as other developments (N.
America, Japan, Korea)
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