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A Green Vision for 2020/30
Claude Turmes, MEPVice President of the Green/EFA group in the European Parliament
Ossiach, 2007
Source: Malte Meinshausen, Swiss Technical University
More we wait,more deeper the cuts!
The end of resource intensive economies
• Climate change problem is only one indicator of a more GENERAL SYSTEM CRISES
• Extrapolating the resource intensive economic model of US – Japan – EU to the rest of the world will create extreme resource stress and risks of disruption of major ecological systems
The role for the EU in a “resource constraint world”
• develop a “new” economic model which creates high quality of life within the “ecological footprint”
• Establish a “rules based” international system(Kyoto, access and conflict mediation around resources)
• 3 yardsticks for energy policies:– Prevent dangerous climate change– Anticipate oil security of supply problems– Reduce and eliminate the nuclear risk
…and no Harry Potter to help !2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
The biggest energy « source »: energy efficiency
Source: Green Paper on Energy Efficiency, EC 2005
Organisational Innovation key
• Technological innovationLow energy housing, “A” class appliances, light railway,off shore wind, thermal electricity, CCS
• Organisational innovationPolitical concepts (ecological taxes, ETS)Planning concepts (urban planning)Financing concepts (risk sharing facilities)Social marketing (life style changes)
Ambitious targets: -30% CO2 in 2020 for EU
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt C
O2e
CO2
CH4
N2OHFC, PFC & SF6
Nuclear phase-out w/o add'l P&M
Emission reduction
30% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)
50% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)
80% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)
Source: Vision Scenario, Greens in the EP, 2006
Green vision: 30% cut of GHG in 2020 and
nuclear phase out
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt C
O2e
Reduction of other greenhouse gas emissions
Renewables in transport
Efficiency in aviation
Car efficiency
Modal shift in transport
Renewables in tertiary sectors
Efficient heating & cooling in tertiary sectors
Efficient use of electricity in tertiary sectors
Renewables in households
Efficient heating & cooling in households
Efficient use of electricity in households
Renewables in industry
Efficient fuel use in industry
Efficient use of electricity in industry
Energy use in other energy sectors
Renewables in power production
CHP & fuel switch in the power sector
CCS for new lignite, hard coal and gas*
Other GHG
Transport
Tertiary
Households
Industry
Power& Energy
(*add'l option)
bau versus vision: Transport
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500
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario
Mto
e
Electricity
Gas
Biofuel
Other petroleumproducts
Kerosenes - Jet Fuels
Motor spirit
Gas/diesel oil
Efficient transport systemBinding Biofuels targets as an alibi to escape from real
mesures!
• „Green cars“ through a long term minimum efficiencystandard for cars (70-80 gr CO2 /km in 2020)
• Promotion of „lower CO2 fuels“ (new „fuel quality“directive)
• early review of EUROVIGNETTE directive• kerosene tax for EU aviation sector• A European ICE/TGV train network• A "green city" program with major cities in Europe like
London, Paris, Berlin,…
bau versus vision:Households
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200
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400
500
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario
Mto
e
Heat
Electricity
Others & waste
Geothermal
Solar
Gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Efficient heating&cooling sectorA European Buildings initiative
40% of all EU energy is used in buildingsMore than 50% of all gas and 75% of Russian gas
• Low energy/plus energy for all new buildings• Ambitious standards for major renovations• Combined heat/cooling&power systems• Transposition of existing „building directive“
(harmonisation of codes, labelling for houses)• Financing instruments: greening structural funds
and the EIB energy investments
Stimulate the technologicalprogress in new buildings
Source: O.Ö. Energiesparverband (http://www.esv.or.at)
deep renovations for the existingbuilding stock
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Before SOLANOVA
kWh/
m2a
Renewable Fossile Ene
-84%
Bau versus vision: electricity
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500
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1,500
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3,500
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4,500
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario
TWh
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Lignite & brown coal
Hard coal
Nuclear
Green Vision: Electricity
• More efficient appliances, office equipment, industrial equipment
• Less electricity for heating and cooling• High amount of CHP and gas• Renewables grow:
– 44% in 2020, 59% in 2030– Most from wind (offshore important) and biomass
(CHP important), some later from solar and geothermal
– Invest in infrastructure and create fair economic framework
21 Renewables for the XXI century
Need of strong European instruments– Continue Existing renew. Electricity directive
(priority dispatching, feed-in versus quotas systems)– Develop large scale biomass, off-shore wind,
solar thermal electricity– Heating&Cooling: new EU directive needed
(promotion of district heating networks key)– Biofuels: sustainability criteria needed; solve
blending versus „stand alone“ biofuels issue
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cost
($/W
p)
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MW
shi
pped
Source: Solar Generation (Greenpeace – EPIA)
The costs of renewables are coming down
Concentrating Solar Power CSP
150 MWe in California5 new 30 -80 MWe in Spain
EU summit decisions:
• GHG targets:– -30% mandate for international– at least -20% unilateral
• Mesures:– 20% binding renewables– -20% energy efficiency– nuclear (Low carbon technology target)
defeated
The electricity sectors challengehow to prevent „dash for coal“?
• ambitious programs to curb electricity demand– „greening consumer goods“ program (EuP, low VAT)– Ambitious national energy efficiency action plans
• the new EU renewables directive (33% greenelectricity, in-feed as best system, prioritydispatching) )
• a new European CHP initiative• review of EU ETS
– introduction of 100% auctionning for power sector– a more European attribution for the industry sector
• promote the „CCS ready“ concept
A coherent EU gas strategyGas is crucial for transition to „green electricity
age“ (de-link oil from gas price)
• Reduce gas in heating sector, • Diversify geographically (pipelines,LNG)• Promote Gas Storage and „reversable“ gas
contracts• Unbundbling for intra-EU transport pipelines• Establish a „non shopping list“ for „Gazprom“• Gas Release programs
Monoculture…
More (bio)diversity in thefor electricity and gas market
• full ownership unbundling for all electricityand gas transmission lines
• harmonisation of the powers of national regulators and cartel authorities
• promote smart grids, renewables and CHP • stop undue and prevent new subsidies to
the coal and nuclear sector• Establish fully segregated nuclear
decommission funds and insurance liability
From geopolitics to biosphere-politics
• Ressource efficiency as core of foreignpolicy agreements (global standards forindustry, cars, computers,…)
• Renewables as centerpiece of international cooperation (new EU fund)
• A global CO2 market• „Rimini“ protocol for peacefull accessto
last oil&gas• Nuclear free zones
Next important steps at EU level
• Ongoing: regional electricity markets• July 07: National efficiency action plans• Sept 07: 3rd EU directives gas&elec• Nov 07: new renewables directive• Dec 07: ETS phase 3• March 08:
– Minimum standards for 8 appliances– Strategic Energy Plan (2030-2050)
Time to act is now!
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