a. gary anderson center for economic research … · california existing homes june ’09 vs june...
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A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCHCHAPMAN UNIVERSITY
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Payroll Job GrowthPayroll Job Growthyy
Yr/Yr % Change3Yr/Yr % Change
0 U.S.
-3 CA
-6Dec. '06
Mar. '07
Jun. '07
Sep. '07
Dec. '07
Mar. '08
Jun. '08
Sep. '08
Dec. '08
Mar. '09
Jun. '09
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Payroll Job GrowthPayroll Job GrowthJJ ’08 t08 t JJ ’0909June June ’08 to 08 to June June ’0909
Number of JobsMetropolitan Areas
Number of JobsGained (+) or Lost (-)
(In thousands)
% Change
Inland Empire 76 3 6 2Inland Empire -76.3 -6.2Sacramento -46.2 -5.2San Francisco -50.5 -5.0Ventura -14.7 -5.0Orange County -70.8 -4.7Santa Clara 43 4 4 7Santa Clara -43.4 -4.7Los Angeles -188.3 -4.6Oakland -46.3 -4.5San Diego -54.7 -4.2Fresno -11.2 -3.7
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Change in Payroll Employment California
June ’08 to June ’09
Number of Jobs %Number of JobsGained (+) or Lost (-)
%Change
Construction -150,500 -17.8Manufacturing -115,100 -8.0Trade, Transportation & Utilities -189,000 -6.5Financial Activities 50 300 5 9Financial Activities -50,300 -5.9Professional & Business Services -121,700 -5.4Information -22,100 -4.6 Leisure & Hospitality -62,500 -4.0Government/Other -15,400 -0.5Educational & Health Services +19,900 +1.2Total -706,700 -4.7
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California California P ll E l tP ll E l tPayroll EmploymentPayroll Employment
Yr/Yr % Change3
Yr/Yr % Change
1991 2001 2007
0
-3
-6-6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36
Months
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The Most Influential Economic The Most Influential Economic V i bl Aff ti J b O tl kV i bl Aff ti J b O tl kVariables Affecting Job OutlookVariables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact2009 2010
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
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Real GDPReal GDP
Qtr/Qtr % Change8
Qtr/Qtr % Change
3.43.44
4
0
--6.46.4
-8
-4 6.46.4
08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2 10:3 10:4
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The Most Influential Economic The Most Influential Economic V i bl Aff ti J b O tl kV i bl Aff ti J b O tl kVariables Affecting Job OutlookVariables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact2009 2010
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
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California California Total Building Permit ValuationTotal Building Permit ValuationTotal Building Permit ValuationTotal Building Permit Valuation
Billions of $
65.475Billions of $
59.251.255
--27%27%
--35%35%37.3
24 135
--35%35%
24.1
1515'05 '06 '07 '08 '09
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The Most Influential Economic The Most Influential Economic V i bl Aff ti J b O tl kV i bl Aff ti J b O tl kVariables Affecting Job OutlookVariables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact2009 2010
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
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Job Growth Job Growth
Annual % Change4
Annual % Change
1.8 1.70.8
2 -437KJOBS
-56KJOBS
-1 2-0.4
2
0
-1.2
-2.9-4
-2CALIFORNIA
4'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
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A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCHTHE GEORGE L. ARGYROS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
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“I don’t use the word ‘bubble’ because I don’t think there is one,” said … an economist and di t f USC’ t f ldirector of USC’s master of real-estate development program. “Bubble is a word that you use to Bubble is a word that you use to characterize markets that are irrational that don’t have irrational, that don t have underlying economic fundamentals to explain what’s fundamentals to explain what s going on. I don’t think that’s what’s really going on in today’s y g g yhousing market.”
September 25, 2005
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Esmael Adibi … has the opposite viewpoint.
“Is there a housing bubble? Yes, I believe there is,” he saidhe said.
His concern about a bubble, he said, stems from three other factors the popularity of adjustable rate three other factors – the popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages, the large number of real-estate investors
d d h b d th bl f and second-home buyers, and the problem of affordability.
“…it’s going to be devastating.”September 25, 2005
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Resale SingleResale Single--Family Housing PricesFamily Housing Pricesgg y gy g
Thousands of $594594
Jun.’07Jun.’07
$600Thousands of $
$
$500 --54%54%325325
$300
$400CALIFORNIA
325325275275
$200
$300
Jun. '02
Jun. '03
Jun. '04
Jun. '05
Jun. '06
Jun. '07
Jun. '08
Jun. '09
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Existing Home SalesExisting Home Salesgg
Yr/Yr % Change100Yr/Yr % Change 82.782.7
50CALIFORNIA
4 44 4
0
4.44.4
--38 338 3
-50
--38.338.3
5004:1 04:3 05:1 05:3 06:1 06:3 07:1 07:3 08:1 08:3 09:1
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Unsold Inventory By Price RangeUnsold Inventory By Price RangeCalifornia Existing Homes June ’09 vs June ’08California Existing Homes June ’09 vs June ’08California Existing Homes June ’09 vs. June ’08California Existing Homes June ’09 vs. June ’08
Th d f $9.1
11 2$1,000K+
Thousands of $
7.4
6 7
11.2
6.1$750-1000K
$500 750KLast Year
6.7
6.93.9
3.2
$500-750K
$300-500KThis Year
9.22.8$0-300
Source: California Association of REALTORS®
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14Months Supply
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Factors Affecting Housing PricesFactors Affecting Housing Pricesg gg g
Projected ImpactProjected Impact2009 2010
Housing Affordability *Housing Affordability
* Housing affordability is computed based on home prices, mortgage rates, and median family income.
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Percent of Median Family Income Needed for Percent of Median Family Income Needed for Mortgage Pa ment on MedianMortgage Pa ment on Median Priced HomePriced HomeMortgage Payment on MedianMortgage Payment on Median--Priced HomePriced Home
P t50
36 436 4
45.445.4Percent
40CALIFORNIA
36.436.4
20
3018.318.3
10
20
0'89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10f
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Factors Affecting Housing PricesFactors Affecting Housing Pricesg gg g
Projected ImpactProjected Impact2009 2010
Housing Affordability * positive positiveHousing Affordability
Underwriting Standards
positive positive
negative neutral
New Housing Permits
* Housing affordability is computed based on home prices, mortgage rates, and median family income.
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Factors Affecting Housing PricesFactors Affecting Housing Pricesg gg g
Projected ImpactProjected Impact2009 2010
Housing Affordability * positive positiveHousing Affordability
Underwriting Standards
positive positive
negative neutral
New Housing Permits
Inventory of Resale Homes
positive positive
y
* Housing affordability is computed based on home prices, mortgage rates, and median family income.
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Factors Affecting Housing PricesFactors Affecting Housing Pricesg gg g
Projected ImpactProjected Impact2009 2010
Housing Affordability * positive positiveHousing Affordability
Underwriting Standards
positive positive
negative neutral
New Housing Permits
Inventory of Resale Homes
positive positive
negative neutraly
Unemployment Rate
g
negative
ti
negative
t lJob Creation negative neutral* Housing affordability is computed based on home prices, mortgage rates, and median family income.
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Resale SingleResale Single--Family Housing PricesFamily Housing Pricesgg y gy g
Annual % Change50Annual % Change
16.56.6 0.8
25
-0.80.8
25
0
-35.4-25.3
-50
-25CALIFORNIA
50'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
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A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCHTHE GEORGE L. ARGYROS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
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Ratio of MedianRatio of Median--Priced Existing Priced Existing SingleSingle Famil Home to Median Famil IncomeFamil Home to Median Famil Income
R ti
SingleSingle--Family Home to Median Family IncomeFamily Home to Median Family Income
9.0Ratio 8.58.5
Hi t i l M 5 35 15 16.0 Historical Mean = 5.35.15.1
3.83.8
3.03.0'89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10f
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Ratio of California Ratio of California H P i t U SH P i t U S
Ratio
Home Prices to U.S.Home Prices to U.S.
3.0Ratio
2.62.6
Hi t i l M 1 9
2.12.1
2.0 Historical Mean = 1.91.41.4
1.01.0'89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10f
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Median Home Price Appreciation & Median Home Price Appreciation & Inflation RatesInflation RatesInflation RatesInflation Rates
I d
500
Index
CALIFORNIA
300400 397
5.4%
CALIFORNIA
200300
2363.4%
237237100100
0100
'83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09f'84 '88 '90 '92 '94'86 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10f
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A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCHCHAPMAN UNIVERSITY