a discussion on ts. wipha (1907) · 400km from hainan island - significant moved northward when...
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A Discussion on TS. Wipha (1907)Vietnam NCHMF
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TS. Wipha track
- Wipha formed about 400km from Hainan island
- Significant moved northward when approaching Hainan island
- Cause heavy rain in Vietnam
- Global model did not forecast this north-ward movement well but the regional ensemble system did.
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Large scale circulation and situation
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Large scale circulation and situation
Subtropical ridge moving eastward when subtropical High weakened
Emperical model for TC track
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Large scale circulation and situation
- Subtropical High retreat to the east on 31th July and intensify to the west again on 01 August.
- Sub-tropical trough close to the cyclone, about 1000km
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Steering flow when Wipha moved North
700-850mb
300-850mb
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Ensemble track forecast by ECMWF
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Ensemble track forecast by Vietnam(SREP – Short-Range Ensemble Prediction)
31/7 1/8
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TS. Wipha rainfall impacts
The ensemble track forecasts are scattered, how ever the rainfall probability forecast is quite good at 2 days lead-time Lesson learned: Focus more on the impact, even the rainfall when the ensemble forecast give high probability.