a carbon-free energy society by 2050 what do we expect from policy makers to get there?”
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A Carbon-Free Energy Society by 2050 What do we Expect from Policy Makers to Get there?”. William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven Energy Institute. Climate-Change Driver. Annual energy related CO 2 worldwide emissions. 450 ppm scenario. IEA WEO 2009. Climate-Change Challenge. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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William D’haeseleer
K.U.Leuven Energy Institute
A Carbon-Free Energy Society A Carbon-Free Energy Society by 2050 by 2050
What do we Expect from What do we Expect from Policy Makers to Get there?”Policy Makers to Get there?”
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IEA WEO 2009
Annual energy related CO2 worldwide emissions
450 ppm scenario
Climate-Change DriverClimate-Change Driver
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To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level
Climate-Change ChallengeClimate-Change Challenge
Ref:
Jos Delbeke, CEU
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To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level
False Start with Copenhagen?False Start with Copenhagen?
OECD should decrease by 30% in 2020
But
after Copenhagen, no commitments and EU sticks to -20%
Ref:
Jos Delbeke, CEU
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And the answer is…And the answer is…
• Solutions must rely on technologytechnology
• Clever combination of existing technologies
• New, perhaps revolutionary technologies
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All Means Will be NecessaryAll Means Will be Necessary
Ref: IEA ETP 2010
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Importance of R & DImportance of R & D
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Europe’s ChallengeEurope’s Challenge
Reference: European Commission COM(2011) 112/4
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Solutions ?Solutions ?
• Need paradigm shift for energy provision• Completely different system by 2050-…:
– Maybe H2 as partly energy carrier (?)– Maybe 2-nd & 3-rd gen biofuels successful (?)– Maybe new synthetic liquid fuels from CO2
capture by means of solar light (?) – But likely much more electrified!much more electrified!
• Balancing, flexibilityBalancing, flexibility• Intelligent Grids (HV & LV), StorageIntelligent Grids (HV & LV), Storage
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How to implement energy revolution?How to implement energy revolution?
• Must take the right decisions now to turn ocean liner !
• Daring, visionary but consistent policies
• But thorny challenges & inconveniences
How get to 2050?How get to 2050?
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UncertaintiesUncertainties
• Popular uprisings MENA
How get to 2050?How get to 2050?
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UncertaintiesUncertainties
• Nuclear Accident Fukushima
How get to 2050?How get to 2050?
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UncertaintiesUncertainties
• Stability of
EURO zone?
Need investments!
How get to 2050?How get to 2050?
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Further complications…Further complications…
• Shale gas seems way to go… but…
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Further complications…Further complications…
• Battle for future grids… which grids???
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Challenges / OpportunitiesChallenges / Opportunities
• Energy & GHG challenges force paradigm shiftparadigm shift
• New energy system creates opportunities for businessopportunities for business
• Should concentrate on nichesniches and excel in those high-tech domainshigh-tech domains
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Challenges / OpportunitiesChallenges / Opportunities
Combined approach needed:
- Sustainable energy provision
- Business involvement to shape the energy revolution
Policy decisions, based on rational analyses, facts & figures are crucial