ENERGY & PEOPLE IN INDIA & WORLD A CLIMATE-CRISIS PERSPECTIVE

SOUMYA DUTTA – BJVJ / DP/ SADED

ENERGY GLUTTONS – EATS EARTHKNOW WHO THEY ARE ?

AFRICA – THE CONTINENT WITH HUGE ENERGY RESOURCES & THE MOST ENERGY-DEPRIVED PEOPLE (barring north) IN THE WORLD .

FUNDAMENTAL SOURCES OF ENERGY ONLY FOUR SOURCES ON THE EARTH

SUN RADIATION – CURRENT SOLAR – SOLAR HEAT (SOURCE - - WIND NUCLEAR FUSION) - SOLAR PHOTO-VOLTAIC -STORED SOLAR – SHORT TERM - HYDRO /WIND ENERGY

( DAYS to YEARS) - BIO MASS, FOOD - ANIMAL/HUMAN

ENERGY - OTHERS (lightning, amb.

atm) LONG TERM - GAS HYDRATES, …. ( 1000’s of YEARS) - OCEAN

THERMAL/CURRENT VERY LONG TERM (fossil) – COAL, OIL, GAS, SHALE (MANY MILLIONS OF YEARS)

NUCLEAR (Cosmic) - FISSION – URANIUM, THORIUM FUSION (future) – DEUTERIUM /TRITIUM

MOON -SUN (Gravity) – TIDAL ENERGYEARTH (Heat) – GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

SOUMYA DUTTA

HUMAN ENERGY USE FROM ‘MODERN’ BEGINNINGS TO

NOW

~60,000 BC(emergence of

‘modern’ man)~>1,700AD SUN –CURRENT HEAT/LIGHT/WIND -SHORT STORAGE WOOD/BIOMASS FOOD HYDRO ENERGY WIND ANIMAL ENRGYEARTH – HEAT

~1,700 AD to NOW SUN (as before), PLUS SUN –PHOTO VOLTAICSUN-FOSSIL FUELS (huge) SUN –WIND ELCTRICITY SUN- HYDRO-ELECTR.NUCLEAR FISSION (U235)MOON –TIDAL ELECTR.EARTH – GEO-THERMAL HEAT &

ELECTR

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HOW MUCH DO WE GET FROM WHAT

INDIA WORLD

SOUMYA DUTTA

TOTAL COMML ENRGY

ITS FOSSIL-CARBON THAT DOMINATES

>90% fossil-carbon ~85% fossil-carbon

CONSEQUENCES OF OUR ENERGY CHOICE

AS WE ALL KNOW, THIS IS CAUSING WORLD-WIDE DEVASTATIONS

SOUMYA DUTTA

GLOBAL C-ENERGY USE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 BUILD-UP

ITS NOT JUST CO2 OR WARMINGMANY OF EARTH’S VITAL SYSTEMS ARE

CHANGING

NOAA SOUMYA DUTTA

EXCESS CO2 IN ATMSPHR &THE OCEANSIS CAUSING ANOMALIES FROM LONG TERM AVRG

WHY FOSSIL-CARBONS CANNOT INDEFINITELY

REMAIN OUR PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES TODAY, THEY ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE (~80%)

SCIENCE SHOWS THE ‘SAFE ATMOSPHERIC LIMIT’ OF CO2 IS <350 ppmv, WHAT IF WE CONTINUE TO BURN FOSSIL-CARBONS? REACH >800 ppmv ? WHAT HAPPENS TO LIFE ? WHOLE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS ‘ONLY’ ~780 GT

SOUMYA DUTTA

EVEN AN OPTIMISTIC CARBON BUDGETDO NOT ALLOW PRESENT C-ENERGY

PATH

GLOBAL EMISSION IN Mt Carbon BLACK LINE – TOTAL EMISSIONSOUMYA

DUTTA

THE FACT THAT ATM. CO2 IS ~390 ppmv NOW, WHILE NEW SCIENCE SETS ‘SAFE-LIMIT’ AT ~350, MEANS WE HAVE -VE C-BUDGET NOW

YET, COAL – HIGHEST C/CAL FOSSIL-FUEL IS GROWING FASTER THAN –

GAS, THE LOWEST C/CAL FOSSIL FUEL

WORLDs ‘DIRTY’ COAL 1998-2008

PRODUCTION

CONSUMPTION

WORLD NATRL GAS CONSUMPTION

SOUMYA DUTTA

AND RENEWABLES ARE STILL A MINISCULE PERCENTAGE

BUT IF WE LOOK - EVEN THE ‘CLEANEST’ FOSSIL-FUEL

IS STILL VERY DIRTY – IN EXTRACTION & PROCESS

SOUMYA DUTTA

THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER POLLUTION, FRACTURING ETC

WHAT ABOUT NUCLEAR (FISSION) ENERGY ?

EXPENSIVE, LONG-GESTATION, HUGE RISKS !

ONLY A HANDFULL OF COUNTRIES GET SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF ELECTRICITY FROM NUCLER-FISSION, AND EVEN THESE – ALONG WITH OTHERS ALREADY LOW – WILL COME DOWN AS A LARGE NO OF THE RUNNING REACTORS (OUT OF 430 odd) APPROACHES END-OF-LIFE.ONLY IN CHINA, INDIA ETC, LARGE NO OF REACTORS ARE PLANNED TO BE BUILT, BUT ….. SOUMYA DUTTANUCLEAR ENERGY ALSO HAS HIGH EMBEDDED & FUEL-CYCLE -ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS, LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL GHG EMISSIONS

~18 COUNTRIES GET >20% OF THEIR ELECTR

NEARLY 60% OF REACTORS ARE >25 Yrs AGE

WHAT ABOUT THE HIGH RISKS TO PEOPLE?

EXISTING NUCLEAR PLANT SITES

WITH ONLY ~4200 MW INSTALLED, WE HAVE PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR WASTE – UNTREATABL E WITH ANY KNOWN TECHNOLOGY. WHAT IF THAT BECOMES 40,000-60,000 MW AS PROJECTED?THE ‘NEW SITES’ WITH EXISTING ONES, WILL MAKE ALL HIGH-POPULATION DENSITY AREAS – HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ROUTINE AND ACCIDENTAL RADIATION AND ACCIDENTS.

SOUMYA DUTTA

COUNTRY-WISE ENERGY-vs-GDP

CHANGE IN GDP AND EMISSIONS 1992-2006

WHAT DRIVES ENERGY CONSUMPTION

‘ECONOMIC GROWTH’ – ENERGY RELATION

SOUMYA DUTTANOT ONE COUNTRY TO ACHIEVE HIGH ‘GROWTH’ W/O HIGH ENERGY CONSUMPTION / EMISSION.

NOT ONLY ECONOMIC GROWTH, FOSSIL-FUELS ALLOWED WORLD POPULATION TO EAT

& GROW

SOUMYA DUTTA

BUT HIGH-INPUT AGRICULTURE, ALONG WITH POWER +INDUSTRY + TRANSPORT… HAS CREATED THE CLIMATE CRISIS & WE ARE APPROACHING RESOURCE PEAKS.

BUT ALL FOSSIL FUEL SOURCESTAPER OF AFTER CERTAIN WITHDRAWAL

US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

UK NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BOTH ARE IN ‘MATURE STATE’ OF

EXPLOITATION

THE ‘PEAK’ PHENOMENON

SOUMYA DUTTA

PEAK ENERGY FROM – OIL, GAS, COAL, URANIUM

IN A LIMITED EARTH – ALL ‘RESOURCES’ ARE LIMITED

SOUMYA DUTTA

PEAK-OIL, PEAK-GAS, PEAK-COAL – ALL WILL COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY PEAK-WATER (AND PEAK-FOOD ?) ALSO.

WHY DO WE NEED SO MUCH ENERGY ?

INDIAN GOVT. PROPOSES NEARLY 4-FOLD INCREASE IN POWER CAPACITY FROM 2005 TO 2030 !! IT’S INCREASED TO 5-FOLD NOW !!!

TO ORGANISE HUGELY ENERGY-INTENSIVE WORLD- CUP OR CW GAMES ? TO LIGHT-UP OUR NIGHTS LIKE DAYS ? OR TO TRANSPORT ‘MOUNTAINS’ OF GOODS ACROSS VAST OCEANS ? OR ……

SOUMYA DUTTA

< HOUSTON FROM SPACE AT NIGHT

FORCED-CYCLIC CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY INTENSIVE MATERIALS PUSHES UP

CONSUMPTION OF BOTH ENERGY & MATERIALS

A LARGE PART OF THE ENERGY / ELECTRICITY GOES INTO ALUMINIUMSTEEL & CEMENT PRODUCTION;

A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THESEENERGY-INTENSIVE METALS AND MATERIALS GO INTO BUILDING THEPOWER -PLANTS, TRANSMISSION TOWERS, MACHINES TO MINE & TPT ORES -- CREATING A SELF-SERVING CHAIN OF CONSUMPTIONS.

ON A RECENT VISIT TO REMOTE TRIBAL

DISTRICT IN M.P.; I SAW 5 CELL-PHONE

TOWERS IN A SMALL TOWN, A SMALL

VILLAGE HAD 3 !

IMPOSSIBLE TO COMBINE THEM IN 1 ?

^ I

V

SOUMYA DUTTA

NOT ONLY RESOURCE LIMITS ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES ARE GETTING BEYOND

LIMITS

DAMAGES BY DIFF SECTORS – ON DIFF ‘SYSTEMS’ NOTICE THE HUGE DAMAGES ON WATER RESRS.

COUNTRIES RANKED BY ENVMNTL DAMAGES SOUMYA

DUTTA

THERMAL POWER-PLANTS ALSO CONSUME AND POLLUTE HUGE AMOUNTS OF WATER

Of wastes and wants: Water use in India

Industrial Sector Annual wastewater water discharge (million cubic meters) (%)

Annualconsumption (million cubic meters)

Proportionof water consumed in industry

Thermal power plants 27000.9 35157.4 87.87

Engineering 1551.3 2019.9 5.05

Pulp and paper 695.7 905.8 2.26

Textiles 637.3 829.8 2.07

Steel 396.8 516.6 1.29

Sugar 149.7 194.9 0.49

Fertiliser 56.4 73.5 0.18

Others 241.3 314.2 0.78

Total 30729.2 40012.0 100.0

Note: For methodology see www.downtoearth.org.inSource: Estimated by CSE based on the wastewater discharged data published by CPCB in "Water quality in India (Status and trends) 1990 - 2001".

ABOUT 87% OF ALL WATER CONSUMPTION FROM MAJOR INDUSTRIES IS CONSUMED BY Thermal Power Plants (CSE). SOUMYA

DUTTA

COUNTRIES IN ASIA & AFRICA FACE WATER-STRESSDUE TO POWER/ENERGY PLANTS, INDUSTRIES, MINING

WHILE FOOD DEMAND IN THESE NATIONS INCREASES FAST

FOOD AS ENERGY IS THE MOST BASIC NEED – MUST GET PRECEDENCE OVER ALL OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY USE. BUT WATER DEPLETION & CONTAMINATION IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE FOOD-SECURITY (CONNECTED WITH WATER-SECURITY) OF THE POOR.SO, WE WILL HAVE TO CUT OUR LUXURY ENERGY CONSUMPTION. SOUMYA

DUTTA

WORLD FOOD DEMAND 1500-2050

THAT RULES ‘AGRO-FUELS’ OUT OF RECKONING

AS ‘SOLUTION’ FOR ENERGY/CC CRISES

* TWO YEARS AGO, THE WORLD FACEDFOOD-RIOTS, MAINLY DUE TO LARGECORN-ETHANOL PROGRAMME OF USA; THIS SUMMER, MOZAMBIQUE FACEDFOOD RIOTS, AS CLIMATE-CHANGE-HITRUSSIA STOPPED WHEAT EXPORTS;*LAND CONFLICTS IN INDIAN VILLAGESDUE TO JATROPHA PLANTATION, WHICHGAVE VERY POOR OIL-YIELD /ACRE, IN UN-IRRIGATED, POOR SOIL;*INDIA HAS NO ‘SPARE’ LANDS TO

GROW‘AGRO-FUELS’ WIDELY, WHILE OUR FOODPRODUCTION FLUCTUATES, WITHCLIMATE CHANGE THREATSLOOMING LARGE – FOOD IS PRIORITY;*MOST AGRO-FUELS HAVE POOR EROEINOS., GIVING LITTLE ENERGY GAIN OVER(FOSSIL) ENERGY INVESTED ;

EVEN IN BRAZIL, A COUNTRY ~ 3 TIMES INDIA’S SIZE WITH A SIXTH OF OUR POPULATION – LARGE SCALE AGRO-FUEL PRODUCTION HAS RESULTED IN LARGE-SCALE LAND CONFLICTS. SOUMYA DUTTA

17-09-10

AND WHERE DOES ALL THE ENERGY GO ?

ALONG WITH CO2 DUMPING INGLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, CAUSINGGW & CC,FOSSIL FUELS & NUCLEAR ENERGY

ADDS ALMOST 100% OF THEIR

ENERGY AS HEAT INTO ATMOSPHERE,HYDROSPHERE, BIOSPHERE AND LITHOSPHERE. THIS HEAT IS OVER & ABOVE THEWARMING CAUSED BY GHG-RADIATIVEFORCING OF THE SUN’S HEAT.A VERY LARGE PART OF IT ENDS UP INOCEANS DAMAGING MARINE LIFE. ONCE-THRU COOLING – COASTAL

TPPs/ NPPs, FACTORIES, WARM RIVER

FLOWS.DEAD CORAL – ANDAMAN SEA – HIGH SUMMER HEAT 2010

Soumya DuttaMOST RENEWBLES ADD NO ADDL. HEAT TO THE

ATM/HYDRSP/BIO-SPH

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION BY CO2 IS A ‘BONUS’ !

VIABLE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE WORLD ?

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TERA-WATTS, 1965-2005

ABAILABILTY OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES – IN TERA-WATTS

SOUMYA DUTTA

BUT EVEN WITH ‘ECO-FRIENDLY’ RENEWABLES

EARTH HAS LIMITS TO GROWTH OF ENERGY-USE

ANY ENERGY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION PROCESS & SYSTEM NEEDS DIFFERENT MATERIALS, AND EVERY MATERIAL ON EARTH IS LIMITED BY ITS FINITE ‘RESERVES’. EVERY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION-CONSUMPTION – RESULTS IN POLLUTION, AND PUT ADDL. PRESSURE ON EARTH’S SYSTEMS PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’. WE HAVE ALREADY CROSSED SOME, AND ARE PUSHING OTHERS DANGEROUSLY .

PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’

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DISTRIBUTED, COMMUNITY CONTROLLED MULTIPLE ENERGY COULD BE ONE ANSWER

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WIND SUN

EARTH’s HEAT

PRIMARY BIOLOGICAL/ PLANT PRODUCTIVITY

OUR ENERGY-NEEDS ARE DISTRIBUTEDALL AROUND THE WORLD, WHERE-EVERWE LIVE. SO ARE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES.

WE HAVE VARIETIES OF ENERGY-NEEDS, HEAT, MOTION, LIGHT, …….. RENEWABLES ARE SIMILARLY VARIABLE

FOR ORDINARY HUMAN NEEDS, SMALL ENERGY-AMOUNTS ARE NEDED, RENEWABLES ARE ‘DILUTE’ SOURCES;

WHO IN INDIA CONSUMES WHAT AS ENERGY

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT FOSSILFUELS & NUCLEAR FISSION – IN THE FOLLOWING SLIDES

SOME CONSUMPTION FACTS1. PER-CAPITA ELCTR ~640 Kwh/Y (ABOUT 40% OF INDIANS HAVE NONE)2. -------------- OIL ~ 113 Kg/Yr. (ABOUT 50% INDIANS GET NOTHING)3. -------------- COAL ~ 500 Kg/Yr. 4. -------------- GAS ~ 1500 SCuFt./Yr (ABOUT 80% INDIANS HAVE NO

ACCESS)5.----FUEL-WOOD ~600-800Kg/Yr /DUNG-CAKE/ … (FOR ~68% POOR INDIAN FAMILIES,

WHO OFTEN HAS TO PAY Rs.2-3 PER Kg) !

POSSIBLY MORE THAN WE PAY FOR OUR ‘CLEAN’ FUEL !!ALL THESE ARE AVERAGES, HIDING HUGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN CLASSES & AREAS

SOUMYA DUTTA

PETROLEUM – INDIA & THE WORLD

INDIA PETROLEUM – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

WORLD PETROLEUM –PRODUCTION

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2.5 Mn BARRELS/DAY -vs- 85 Mn BARRELS/DAY 120 CRORE PEOPLE 685 CRORE PEOPLE

NATURAL GAS – INDIA & THE WORLD

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PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS STARTED PEAKING UP IN 2000’s

COAL – INDIA AND THE WORLD

Country INDIA YEAR COAL-Production

2003 375.4 Mn Tons 2004 407.7 2005 428.4 2006 447.3 2007 478.4 2008 521.7 2009 543.0 Share of 5.8% (World

Prodcn) Reserve- ~ 115 Yrs (Life in

Yrs.)

Soumya Dutta

WORLD COAL

ELECTRICITY GENERATION : 1990-2006

WITH ~17% OF WORLD POPULATION, INDIA GENERATES (2006) ~3% OF ITSTOTAL ELECTRICITY; AND MOST OF IT FROM COAL, LARGE HYDRO, GAS.

INDIA WORLD

SOUMYA DUTTA

THE ELECTRICITY-LOSS/WASTAGE+ QUESTION

INDIA HAS ~1,64,000 MW INSTALLEDELECTRICITY CAPACITY (2010);~23% OF THIS IS LOST AS T&D LOSSFROM PLANT TO USER ! CAN BE 10%

,

EVEN BEFORE, COAL-FIRED TPPsWASTE ~67% OF COAL ENERGY ANDGET ~33% AS ELECTRICITY, OUT OF WHICH ~3-4% IS USED FOR PLANT,

SO, ONLY ~21% OF COAL’s CHEMICAL

ENERGY REACH THE USERS,

JUST T&D LOSS IS ~37,000MW !! ENOUGH TO FEED 9 DELHI’s !!! OR30 BIHAR STATES (on present ‘needs’),EQUALS ALL 9 NEW UMPPs !! T&DAT 10% WILL SAVE ~21,000MW, STILLMORE THAN 5 UMPPs >Rs.100K CR.

HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS ARE ALSO LOSING GENERATION CAPACITY DUE TO MASSIVE SILT-DEPOSITS, AND BAD WATER-PLAN,

KEEPING DAMS FULL BEFORE RAINS CAUSES SUDDEN FLOODS,

EXCEPT VERY FEW CO-GENERATION /COMBINED-CYCLE TPPs /NPPs, ALLHEAT THE AIR & WATER AROUND BIG, CAUSING HUGE LOSSES TO AQUATIC LIFE, LIVELIHOODS (& HEALTH LOSS)

EXTRA 5 UMPPs MEAN AN EXTRA ~24MILLION TONS OF TOXIC ASH-

DUMPING-OVER 2 MILLION TONS OF TOXIC ASHFLYING IN AIR – CAUSING DISEASES, CROP LOSSES, CONTAMINATING

WATERSOURCES, ………………. SOUMYA

DUTTA

INDIA – PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007-08

 Energy Type * Units * in Original * in Mtoe *% share in * % share in Units Prmry Comml In Total Energy

Primary

Energy ---------------- -------- ---------------- ------------- ------------- --------------- Coal Mt 501.52 215.48 53.54 39.50 Lignite Mt 34.65 9.71 Oil Mt 139.73 139.73 33.22 24.51 Natural Gas BCM 32.27 29.07 9.34 6.89 LqfdNtrlGas Mt 8.24 10.21 -- --Nuclear Power Mn KWh 16,777 4.38 1.04 0.77 Hydro Power MnKWh 1,28,702 11.07 2.63 1.94 Wind Power MnKWh 11,410 0.98 0.23 0.17 Primry Comml Enrgy Mtoe 420.62 100.00 73.78Non-Comml Enrgy -Mtoe (MAINLY BIO-MASS) 149.50 + 26.22Total Primry Enrgy Consumption Mtoe 570.12 = 100.00

SOUMYA DUTTA

SOURCE : PLANNING COMMISSION

LARGE NOS. STILL USE TRADITIONAL BIO-MASSDISPLACING FROM FOREST CREATES LARGE

MARKETDESIGN BEHIND REDD+, KITCHEN-SOOT SCARE ?

MAJOR PORTIONS OF GLOBAL TOTAL RENEWABLE ENERGY IS STILL TRADITIONAL BIO-MASS, USED BY THE POOR

FIRE-WOOD LPG DUNG K ERSN

> 76% RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS USE FIRE-WOOD, ONLY ~10% RURAL HHs HAVE ACCESS TO LPG OR KEROSENE

SOUMYA DUTTA

WHERE IN INDIA ARE THE ENERGY SOURCES

AND THE POLLUTING POWER PLANTS THAT

CONVERT THIS ENERGY TO USEABLE FORMS ?

SOUMYA DUTTA

BOTH POLLUTING COAL-PLANTS & DANGEROUS NUCLEAR PLANTS ARE LOCATED CLOSE TO HIGH POPULATION DENSITY AREAS.

ENERGY & MINERAL SOURCE/ PLANT LOCATIONS

AND WHO GETS ‘POWER’ FROM THESE

SOUMYA DUTTA

PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRIFIED RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS -> DARK RED <10%, DARK GREEN > 85%

TPPs ARE BLACK-DOTs, COAL-FIELDS –BLUE DROPs , HYDEL PLANTS – BLUE SQRS, ………CONCENTRATIONS MATCH - IN REVERSE !! OPERATION POWER-HUNT ?

ANOTHER PICTURE OF HUGE DISPARITIES THAT HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN DECADES

43% - NO ELECTRICITY, 33% - LESS THAN 50 KwH/Month, 11% - 50-100 KwH/M, 13% - >100 KwH/M; (PRAYAS)

ELECTRICITY

SOUMYA DUTTA

HUGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN STATES & BETWEEN URBAN & RURAL – IN ELECTR. CONSUMPTION -> RICH-POOR DIVIDE.

ENERGY-WATER-AIR ARE THE LIFE-NEEDS OF ALL ANIMALS - INCLUDING US

WE NEED ENERGY EQUITY & JUSTICE

LET THE ENGAGEMENT INTENSIFY,BEARING THE FRUITS OFEQUITABLE SAFE-

ENERGYFOR ALL

TILL THAT TIME ……..

THANK YOU ALL

SOUMYA DUTTA