a brief introduction to mathematical statistics
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A Brief Introduction to Mathematical Statistics
Xiaoheng YangTokyo Institute of Technology
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Structure
Basic concepts Sample and The whole Histogram and Experience distribution
function Statistics quantities and distribution Next…
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Basic ConceptsWhat’s Mathematical Statistics?
“Statistics” “Status”
Mathematical Statistics Statistics difference
Eg.1 (i) Record unqualified goods and compute the wastrel rate from all the products in one month; (ii) Select some sample goods randomly from all the ones then predict the wastrel rate in one month. Eg.2 (i) Investigate and make the sick list according to a specific disease from all the population in one area, then calculate the percentage of the sicken persons for this area ; (ii) Select n persons randomly and make the sick list according to a specific disease, then predict the percentage of the sicken persons for this area.
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Basic ConceptsEg.1 (i) Record unqualified goods and compute the wastrel rate from all the products in one month;Eg.2 (i) Investigate and make the sick list according to a specific disease from all the population in one area, then calculate the percentage of the sicken persons for this area ;
Eg.1(ii) Select some sample goods randomly from all the ones then predict the wastrel rate in one month. Eg.2(ii) Select n persons randomly and make the sick list according to a specific disease, then predict the percentage of the sicken persons for this area.
Statistics
Mathematical Statistics
certainty
uncertainty : data, processing method, result
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Basic Concepts
What’s Mathematical Statistics?
Object: stochastic data
Task: collecting, organizing, & analyzing data;
then predicting & deducing;
finally, making decision based on above.
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Basic Concepts
Is Mathematical Statistics necessary or not?
Eg.1 (i) Record unqualified goods and compute the wastrel rate from all the products in one month; Eg.2 (i) Investigate and make the sick list according to a specific disease from all the population in one area, then calculate the percentage of the sicken persons for this area ;
energy , time cost and sometime impossible
Eg.1(ii) Select some sample goods randomly from all the ones then predict the wastrel rate in one month. Eg.2(ii) Select n persons randomly and make the sick list according to a specific disease, then predict the percentage of the sicken persons for this area.
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Basic Concepts
Analyzing the randomicity for data
Sources: chanciness, Eg.2.ii; uncertainty.
Application areas: Industries, Agriculture, Medicals, Military, Economy…
Fundamental contents: Data gathering, including sampling theory, test decision...; Statistical prediction, including estimation & verification.
Validity of methods: Probability Mathematical Statistics
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Sample and Whole/Collectivity
nXXXX ......,3,2,1
Samples: observed data n means sample capacity
Sample space: All possible samples consist of the sample space
Pay attention to the property of sample: Duplicity or twoness (specific data or random variables); Independent & same probability distribution.
Eg.3 Lottery problem
Whole/collectivity: The whole means a random variable.
Eg.4 Lathe problem
X
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Sample and Whole/Collectivity
Predicting the probability distribution: experience determined distribution parameter decision
Eg.5 ……
Parameter space
parameter estimation; unparameter estimation.
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Histogram & Experience Distribution Function
X nXXXX ......,3,2,1
max)(min)1( , XXXX n
Histogram:
Step.1 finding…
Step.2 dividing…
Step.3 recording…
Step.4 Calculating…
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Histogram & Experience Distribution Function
X nXXXX ......,3,2,1
)()1()2()1( ... nn XXXX
Experience Distribution Function:
)(
)1()(
)1(
,1
1,...,2,1,,
,0
)(
n
kkn
Xx
nkXxXn
k
Xx
xF
Prove…
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Statistical quantities & distribution
nXXXX ......,3,2,1 )()1()2()1( ... nn XXXX
Statistical quantities: unorganized data organized data processing
YX
n
iii
n
i
kik
n
i
kik
n
ii
n
ii
SS
S
YYXXn
S
XXn
B
Xn
A
SS
XXn
S
Xn
X
12
112
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
))((1
)(1
1
)(1
1
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Statistical quantities & distribution
ondistributi2nXXXX ......,3,2,1
n
iiXY
1
2
are independent and obey the normal distribution N(0,1)
Theory.1: are independent and obey the normal distribution N(0,1), , j 1,2,…k, then
kYYY ,..., 21
)(~ 2jnY
)(~1
2
1
k
jj
k
jj nYY
Theory.2:
0,0
0,
)2
(2
1
)()(
2)(,)()(
)2/(12/
2
x
xexn
xpii
nXDnXEi
xnn
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Statistical quantities & distribution
)(~),1,0(~ 2 nYNX
nY
XT
/
t (student) distribution: ,X and Y are independent, then t distribution is
xxnn
npdf n ,)2/1(
)2/(
)2/)1( 2/)1(2
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Statistical quantities & distribution
0,0
0,)()2/()2/(
)2/)(2/)(
21
12/
222121
21
21
121
x
xnxn
xnn
nn
nnpdf nn
nnn
)(~),(~ 22
12 nYnX
2
1
/
/
nY
nXF
F distribution: ,X and Y are independent, then F distribution is
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Normal distribution
),(~ 2uNX
tindependenSX
nnS
nuNX
2
222
2
,)3(
)1(~/)2(
)/,(~)1(
Theory:
thennXXXX ......,3,2,1
Prove….
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Next…