a black swan in the gulf of mexico?
DESCRIPTION
Peter Wilkinson, Director, NoeticTRANSCRIPT
A Black Swan in the Gulf of Mexico?Peter Wilkinson
The Noetic Group
NATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2014
Platinum Sponsor
Silver Sponsor Bronze SponsorRisk Manager of the Year
Award Sponsor
Conference and Exhibition Partners
What will I talk about?• A Black Swan event?
• Unforeseeable?
• Unique to oil and gas?
• Or is there an alternative view?• Why corporations have
no memory and accidents recur.
• Are there broader lessons?
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
A Black Swan in the Gulf of Mexico?
• What Happened?• Whilst drilling – “mud” is used to
keep a hydrostatic head• Once finished – well is “cemented”• “Mud” pumped out, BUT• Cementing job failed• Hydrocarbons enter well• As the gas rises up the well bore –
over 30,000’ this well “Kick” was not recognised.
(Illustration courtesy of FutureMedia)
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
A Black Swan in the Gulf of Mexico?
• Question: Was it a Black Swan?
• Answer: No!
• Blowouts are a well known risk
• “kicks” relatively common
• Cementing known to be difficult
• Test to assess cementing not used
• This particular well was challenging
• The controls to prevent blowouts are well known
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
Macondo – Some of the Broader Lessons?
• Lesson from Macondo• Personal Safety vs Major Accidents
• Risk controls were not applied at the front line as intended
• Multiple risk controls all failed when needed
• Confirmation bias not recognised
• Broader Lesson• How have we “framed” our risks?
• “Active Monitoring” of risk controls always needed
• Beware of assuming residual risk is low because of multiple controls
• train in identifying and combatting cognitive biases eg fundamental attribution error
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
Montara and a Black Swan
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
The End(Montara Blowout Timor Sea 2009)
National Conference & Exhibition 2014
Image Credits
• Slide 2 Source: Flickr. Image by Governor Jindals office. • oiled pelicans - Photos courtesy of Governor Jindal’s office, Louisiana, Governor's
Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. (CC BY-SA 2.0). Accessed 22 August 2014, http://www.flickr.com/photos/49937499@N08/4667375844
• Slide 3 United States Coast Guard
• Slide 4 copyright FutureMedia Pty Ltd (used with permission)
• Slide 5 United States Coast Guard
• Slide 7 Source: Flickr. Image by marine bank• oiled bird, marine bank, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license,
Accessed 22 August 2014, http://www.flickr.com/photos/19378856@N04/2037098785
• Slide 8 Not Known
Thank you.
NATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2014
Platinum Sponsor
Silver Sponsor Bronze SponsorRisk Manager of the Year
Award Sponsor
Conference and Exhibition Partners