80, rue Galliéni – 92773 Boulogne-Billancourt cedex – Tél : 01 47 12 53 00 – www.cm-intl.com

FNR Foresight ExerciseExploratory Workshop

CM International

19th May 2006

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Outline

Key findings to date

Research landscape overview

Main international trends analysis

Assessment of priorities

Introduction to the parallel sessions

Strategy options

Attractiveness - feasibility matrix

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Key findings to date

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4CM International

Significant uplift in public R&D funds since 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Public research without FNR FNR

Source: R. Kerger, Luxembourg's Research Landscape, Paper presented at the CREST meeting. Mondorf-les- Bains, 23 May 2005

Public Funds to Public R&D, 1990-2005, million euro

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A complex system of funding sources and actors

Ministry of Culture, Higher Education

and Research

Ministry of Health

Ministry of Education

Ministry of the Interior and spatial

planning

Ministry of Public administration

Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade

Ministry of Middle class, Tourism &

Housing

FNR

InterministerialCoordination

Committee for Research and Technological Development

CRP Gabriel Lipman

CRP Henri Tudor

CRP Santé / Nal Health Labo

CEPS/INSTEAD

Centre Hospitalier

Museum Natural History

Robert Schuman Centre

CVCE

University of Luxembourg

ECGS

Ministry of State

Research/training grants

International coop5,4M€

3,3M€Private Research (ESA)0,5M€

31,6M€

14,5M€

5,3M€

44M€

Private ResearchE-Luxembourg

1M€17,5M€

0,2M€

1,6M€

0,6M€

1,7M€

0,5M€

7M€

0,07M€

0,2M€

2M€

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A comprehensive range of public research supports

Financial support via Titre 2 of the 1987 Law (CRP Henri Tudor, CRP Gabriel Lipmann, CRP Santé, CEPS/INSTEAD)

Thematic direct support

MA5:Preparation of EU projects

MA6: Mobility of researchers

MA7: Training in research project management

SF: Science Festival

Organisation of international scientific conferences in Lux

Inter-ministerial coordination Committee for RTD

Technology Watch Centre (CVT)

Short Term Patent*

Technology and science parks – Incubators

Science festival

Active participation of novice researchers in scientific conf.

CEDIES (Centre of documentation and Higher Education Info)

Cluster programme (Surfmat, InfoCom, Aerospace)

E-Luxembourg

MA1: Various measures for promoting R&D

MA2: Active participation of novice researchers in conferences

MA3:Organisation of scientific conferences in Luxembourg

MA4: Scientific publications

Supporting measures

PROVIE

TRASU

SECAL

VIVRE

INTER

SECOM

NANO

EAU

BIOSAN

ESA participation

Incentive thematic measures

Preparation of EU research projects

Financial contribution to the national plan in the field of aeronautics and space

Innovation loans

Financial contribution to researchers mobility

International mobility of researcher

R&D Incentive SchemeResearch and development incentive scheme of the Ministry of Small and Medium-sized Businesses, Tourism and HousingResearch and learning grant (BFR)

Incentive non thematic measures

Financial support via Titre I of the 1987 Law (CRP Henri Tudor, CRP Gabriel Lipmann, CRP Santé, University, CVCE)

Direct financial measures

Financial support via Titre 2 of the 1987 Law (CRP Henri Tudor, CRP Gabriel Lipmann, CRP Santé, CEPS/INSTEAD)

Thematic direct support

MA5:Preparation of EU projects

MA6: Mobility of researchers

MA7: Training in research project management

SF: Science Festival

Organisation of international scientific conferences in Lux

Inter-ministerial coordination Committee for RTD

Technology Watch Centre (CVT)

Short Term Patent*

Technology and science parks – Incubators

Science festival

Active participation of novice researchers in scientific conf.

CEDIES (Centre of documentation and Higher Education Info)

Cluster programme (Surfmat, InfoCom, Aerospace)

E-Luxembourg

MA1: Various measures for promoting R&D

MA2: Active participation of novice researchers in conferences

MA3:Organisation of scientific conferences in Luxembourg

MA4: Scientific publications

Supporting measures

PROVIE

TRASU

SECAL

VIVRE

INTER

SECOM

NANO

EAU

BIOSAN

ESA participation

Incentive thematic measures

Preparation of EU research projects

Financial contribution to the national plan in the field of aeronautics and space

Innovation loans

Financial contribution to researchers mobility

International mobility of researcher

R&D Incentive SchemeResearch and development incentive scheme of the Ministry of Small and Medium-sized Businesses, Tourism and HousingResearch and learning grant (BFR)

Incentive non thematic measures

Financial support via Titre I of the 1987 Law (CRP Henri Tudor, CRP Gabriel Lipmann, CRP Santé, University, CVCE)

Direct financial measures

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Top issues raised in the online questionnaire

Strategy development: “Luxembourg needs to commit to a national R&D policy: public

and private stakeholders have to be integrated and committed to the same overall targets; national cooperation at all levels is important for the overall success of R&D activities.”

Criteria for selection of R&D fields: “I think Luxembourg should not try to win any 'Nobel Prizes' by

doing research in novel and 'hip' areas, but should focus on essential research which will help the country's welfare and economy in the short and long run.”

Research system parameters: “The focus is in my feeling too much on applied research.

Applied research of tomorrow was always and will always be the fundamental research of today. So fundamental research has to be made to assure a future applied research.”

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Top issues…continued

Research culture: “Encourage exposure to international research community by

facilitating international collaborative projects. Encourage (national) visibility of the research activities in the different projects (FNR has a role as an information dissemination platform).”

Funding process: “Continuously monitor scientific quality and productivity. Best way is

via peer review (including site visits) by outside experts. Regularly demand accountability from researchers and administrators to ensure that public funds are well spent. Support what works, abolish what doesn’t.”

Human resource development: “It is important to create a critical mass of experienced researchers

and infrastructure in Luxembourg to attract scientists from abroad.”

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Rationale for priorities

Most countries are prioritising research domains in their public

research strategies

Growing use of foresight as a mechanism to achieve this

prioritisation

Strong and often competing evidence needs to be assessed

when undertaking prioritisation

You are here today to consider this evidence and contribute You are here today to consider this evidence and contribute towards prioritising public research funding in Luxembourgtowards prioritising public research funding in Luxembourg

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What type of research priority?

Thematic field Research area Research domain

Research axis

Environmental sciences

Global change and ecosystem

Water management

Drinking water

Biomedical sciences

Diseases Cardiovascular diseases

Metabolism and the Cv system

ICT Infrastructure Telecoms

Physical sciences and engineering

Knowledge based multifunctional materials

Housing and civil engineering

Energy efficient buildings

Social & human sciences

Economy, policies, institutional framework

Economy and finance

Dynamics of financial wealth creation

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Trends at the international level : 54 emerging domains

Identified from: Foresight projects conducted by the European Commission Research priorities identified from 12 comparator countries FNR 2005 call for proposals Senior researcher interviews in Luxembourg & online questionnaire survey

Social Sciencesand Humanties

Physical Sciencesand Engineering

Information Communication Technologies

Bio-Medical Sciences

Environmental Sciences

High competition

Medium competition

Low competition

Competition level

15

1111

7

10

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How is a domain assessed?

Attractiveness: Societal need Economic need Emerging trend Sustainable development need

Feasibility: Scientific base Economic base Regional partners

Competition intensity: Extent to which the research domain is being prioritised by other

countries. Note, this particular point requires careful consideration, as it is

complicated by the fact that for Luxembourg to reap benefit of prioritising a research domain its scientists will also need to be part of a wider community of scientists where knowledge exchange is important.

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Trends at the international level : 54 emerging domains

Social Sciencesand Humanties

Physical Sciencesand Engineering

Information Communication Technologies

Bio-Medical Sciences

Environmental Sciences

6

2

3

2

0

8

3

2

2

1

3

7

3

7

5

High competition

Medium competition

Low competition

Competition level

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A fiche example

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A focus on the domain analysis table

Analysis Engineering

Priority level (out of 283 respondents) 28/283

Expertise level (average out of 5) 3.26

Attractiveness score (sum of averages) 13.81

Attractiveness level HIGH

Attractiveness consensus

Societal need 2.78

Economic need 4.11

Emerging trend 3.37

Sustainable development need 3.56

Feasibility score (sum of averages) 9.38

Feasibility level HIGH

Feasibility consensus

Scientific base 2.85

Economic need 3.35

Regional partners 3.19

Competition level VERY HIGH

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Attractiveness – Feasibility Matrix : ‘Clustering’

54

53

52

51

50

49

48

47

46

45

44

43

42 41

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

2524

23

22

21 20

19

18

17

16

15

14

1312

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH

ME

DIU

MH

IGH

VE

RY

HIG

H

Attractiveness

fea

sib

ility

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4 Types of Domains

Type 1

Very high attractiveness and high feasibility (3)

High attractiveness and high feasibility / Very high attractiveness and medium feasibility (30)

High attractiveness and medium feasibility / medium attractiveness and high feasibility (20)

Medium attractiveness and medium feasibility (1)

Type 2

Type 3

Type 4

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Top 10 Research priorities identified

Source: online questionnaire results

DomainPriority Level % Rank

Water management 29% 1st

Natural environment management 20% 2nd

Nanosciences and nanotechnologies 17% 3rd

Earth Observation 16% 4th

Bio Energies 16% 5th

School, work, qualifications 16% 6th

Biotechnologies 16% 7th

Materials and novel properties 16% 8th

Infectious diseases and immunity 15% 9th

21st century challenges and life-style related diseases 15% 10th

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19CM International

4 common domains amongst top domains selected by public & private sector

Private sector respondents only

Materials and novel properties 1st

Water management 2nd

Nanosciences and nanotechnologies 3rd

Engineering 3rd

Natural environment management 4th

Sustainable production and products 5th

Sustainable transports and logistics 6th

Earth Observation 7th

Language diversity and linguistic competences 7th

Social integration and social exclusion 8th

Telecommunications 8th

Culture, history, identity 8th

Demography, childhood, youth and intergenerational relations 8th

Public sector respondents only

Water management 1st

Natural environment management 2nd

School, work, qualifications 3rd

Biotechnologies 4th

Bio Energies 5th

Infectious diseases and immunity 5th

21st century challenges and life-style related diseases 5th

Earth Observation 6th

Nanosciences and nanotechnologies 7th

Biodiversity, conservation and GMOs 7th

Health and Environment 7th

Photovoltaic solar energy 7th

Source: online questionnaire results

Note: coloured circles refer to competition level from other countries – e.g. red = high, amber = medium, and green = low

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Variable competition level for the 54 domains

Source: online questionnaire results

Low Medium High

T1 School, work, qualifications Welfare state

21st century challenges and life-style-related diseases

T2

Cardiovascular diseases Agriculture Multimedia Software Modelling and simulation technology Business and information technology Demography Language diversity and competencies Social integration and exclusion Cognition and learning Management, business studies & innovation

Water management Oncology Biochemistry and cell biology Food and human nutrition Materials with novel properties Economy and finance

Ecotechnologies Bioenergies Hydrogen as a fuel source Natural environment management Climatology Telecommunication Interactive computing technologies Nanotechnologies Engineering Business opportunities from space Culture, history, identity

T3

Sustainable production and products Sustainable transports and logistics Implants, transplants and organ regeneration Substance use and addictions Animal sciences Computational science and engineering Miniaturising electronicsArtificial intelligence Supramolecular functional materials Industrial design technology Earth observation

Biodiversity, conservation and GMOs Health and the environment Technologies for health Housing, civil and urban engineering

Photovoltaic solar energy Neurosciences, neurological and mental diseases Rare diseases, handicaps, regenerative medicine Biotechnologies

T4 Intensive grid calculation and calculation grid

Competition level

Typ

olo

gy

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21CM International

Key emerging issues

The Luxembourg research landscape has evolved at a rapid rate

Stakeholders agree that now is the time to introduce a greater strategic focus to public research funding

Prioritisation of research domains is needed but is difficult There is a need to match views from a diverse range of

stakeholders (public and private sectors) There are many research domain ‘niches’ where competition

appears to be lower – although this issue needs to be treated carefully when prioritising

The results suggest some emerging domains with strong assessments

They also indicate some pessimism regarding feasibility of many domains – more than half the domains are of ‘medium feasibility’

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Strategy option 1: Build critical mass to develop the business base

Move away from specialisation in the context of the knowledge economy Develop research activities that have a clear potential for

strengthening existing and developing new economic clusters in the medium to long term

Focused strategy with priority research domains selected because of their business development potential

Economic attractiveness is a key ‘assessment’ issue and feasible domains are obviously preferable Highly attractive and currently less feasible domains will also be

considered as future success may well depend on developing entirely new specialisms in Luxembourg in both the scientific and economic domain.

80% of the budget will be focused on the priorities, 20% of the budget for other innovative research projects outside the domain priorities

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Strategy option 2: Scientific excellence strategy

Develop high level research activities Which have the greatest potential to firmly establish Luxembourg on the

international science map and ensure the country partakes in ground-breaking new developments

With the capacity to transform this knowledge into innovation Focused strategy with priority domains selected because of their

scientific potential Domains assessed as highly attractive with high scientific potential should

be selected - also taking into account what the expected long-term economic impact of these domains is likely to be.

Two or three domains only will be selected. Complementary domains that would have a positive impact on the development of these few priorities will also be selected

The major share of the budget (80%) will be focused on the priorities with the remaining (20%) devoted to other scientifically excellent research projects outside the domain priorities

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Strategy option 3: Differentiation strategy

Focus resources on domains with relatively low competition Luxembourg’s relative resources are too limited to compete in any

significant way in most domains. The research strategy will build on Luxembourg’s

particular strengths and competencies in current, potential and emerging sectors Domains with both scientific and economic potential are selected

Domains assessed as having good attractiveness and feasibility assessment will be preferred In particular, feasible or strategically important domains are

preferable - such as domains that have either a scientific base, economic base or regional partners, or have been identified in national policy statements as priorities

All budget should be devoted to these priorities

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Strategy option 4: Sustain diversity in Luxembourg

Diversity is an opportunity to spread risk and avoid choosing a focused approach too soon. Managing a larger portfolio of research domains will provide the

opportunity to counterbalance potential failures in some domains with success stories in others. Over time this will guide the way to the development of a few clusters with a positive socio-economic impact

The key issue is to select priorities among domains with both scientific and economic potential

Research teams are invited to select one or two domain priorities and even specific research axes in order to nevertheless concentrate their efforts and achieve critical mass

Budget will need to be spread, and should support international collaboration and in particular to use the Grande Region potential

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Strategy option 5: Research for sustainability

Focus research activities on the development of methods, technologies, and practices that are required to shift behaviours and consumption patterns in a sustainable direction

A mix of domains with combined business potential as well as an environmental and social impact will be selected

Higher levels of convergence (the NBIC convergence: Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno) offer the greatest potential to substantially advance human capabilities and societal functions towards sustainable development

FNR’s role is to use programme development to strike a balance between research aiming at scientific excellence in NBIC interfaces and the continued development of technological capacity and knowledge resources of Luxembourg research teams for the benefit of the business community

80, rue Galliéni – 92773 Boulogne-Billancourt cedex – Tél : 01 47 12 53 00 – www.cm-intl.com

Thank you