8 th cioc guanzhou china south american soybeans production and trading marcos rubin november 13th,...
TRANSCRIPT
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8th CIOC Guanzhou China
South American Soybeans Production and Trading
Marcos Rubin
November 13th, 2013
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Brazil – Grain Production (mmt)
Source: CONAB, Forecast Agroconsult.
35 40 37 38 37 43 48 46 47 49 52 55
52
7258
82
99
120 114
144135
166
189193
1,51,8
1,6
2,2
2,7 2,8
2,4
3,12,9
3,43,63,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190 Area (mi ha)Production (mmt)Yields (ton/ha)
4,4%
2,9%
1,5%
Last 30 years growth.CAGR
30 years
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Soybeans/Brazil – Production (mmt)
Source: CONAB Agroconsult
WeatherInstable
GrowthLimited
WeatherFavorable
GrowthGreat
Potential
WeatherFavorable
GrowthSome
Potential
WeatherInstable
GrowthGreat
Potential
21,316,3
13,218,2
22,9 20,6 18,425,6
28,5
18,6
30,7 32,3
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
12,9 15,017,9 16,7 15,4
17,8 18,0 18,8 20,4 21,8 23,526,3
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
14,5 13,9 15,6 15,1 15,0 15,1 15,1 17,1 18,0 17,519,8 20,8
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
3,24,6 5,6 5,0 5,1
6,5 5,77,2
8,4 8,4 8,1
11,0
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Mato Grosso State
Southeast, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul
South Region
MAPITOBA (Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia)
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0,4 0,5 0,7 0,9 0,81,2
2,0 1,9
2,7 3,0 3,1
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Soybeans/South America – Production (mmt)
Source: USDA. Agroconsult
WeatherInstable
in some regionsGrowth
Great Potential
WeatherInstable
GrowthSome potential
WeatherInstable
GrowthSome
Potential
52,0 49,8 52,3 55,0 58,4 60,0 57,268,7 75,3
66,482,2 90,4
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
35,5 33,039,0 40,5
48,8 46,2
32,0
54,549,0
40,149,4 53,8
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
4,5 3,9 4,0 3,65,6 6,0
3,6
6,5 7,1
4,0
9,4 9,0
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Brazil
Argentina
Paraguay
Uruguay WeatherInstable
GrowthSome
Potential
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Soybeans/South America – Production (mmt) vs Climate Risk
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 7%
-5% > Y < +5% 87%Y < -5% 7%
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 40%
-5% > Y < +5% 27%Y < -5% 33%
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 13%
-5% > Y < +5% 67%Y < -5% 20%
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 33%
-5% > Y < +5% 40%Y < -5% 27%
Source: Agroconsult. 2013/14 Crop year.
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 27%
-5% > Y < +5% 40%Y < -5% 33%
Deviation Probability %Y > +5% 33%
-5% > Y < +5% 33%Y < -5% 33%
26,3
9,43,5
1,96,0
16,3
14,31,7
4,11,8
1,91,7
53,9
9,0
90,4 mmt
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Soybeans/Brazil – Supply and Demand
Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.
52 50 52 55 58 60 57
6975
66
8290
30 32 32 31 34 35 35 37 39 40
3842
20 20 2026 23 25
30 29 3036
4146
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100m
mt
ProductionConsumptionExports
2,82
2,33 2,242,42
2,82 2,822,63
2,933,12
2,652,96 3,07
ton
/ ha Yields
Sensibility
2,65 ton/ha = 76 mmt3,12 ton/ha = 92 mmt
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Soybeans/Argentina – Supply and Demand
3633
39 41
4946
32
5549
40
4954
25 26 2933 35 36
3336
39 3835
39
9 710 7 10
14
6
139 7 6
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60m
mt Production
Consumption
Exports
Yields2,82
2,36
2,71 2,66
2,992,82
2,00
2,932,68
2,282,56
2,73
ton
/ ha
Sensibility
2,00 ton/ha = 39 mmt2,73 ton/ha = 58 mmt
Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.
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Soybeans/South America(BRA+ARG+PAR+URU) – Supply and Demand
Yields
92 8796 100
114 113
94
132 133
113
144156
56 59 62 66 70 73 69 74 81 78 7685
32 30 33 36 38 44 3948 46 50 56
67
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180m
mt Production
Consumption
Exports
2,82
2,32 2,40 2,45
2,85 2,77
2,30
2,88 2,87
2,43
2,80 2,91
ton
/ ha
Sum of each country
Max of 163 mmtMin of 123 mmt
Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.
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Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
Rally da Safra – The Brazillian Crop Tourwww.rallydasafra.com.br
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2
118
3 4
15
8
14
15
9
2 3
15
10
57
17
8
14
22
15
21
2
1
33
1
1
32
3
5 3
3
31
8
107
1
7
104
13
9
56
16
9
46
15
12
76
1514
8 8
1716
12 12
2322
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4*
Milh
ares
Corn
Soybeans
2008 31 mmt
2009 36 mmt
2010 40 mmt
2011 42 mmt
2012 53 mmt
2013 67 mmt
Brazillian exports of Soybeans and Corn (mmt)
Soybeans and Corn/Brazil – Exports
Source: Secex. *Forecast Agroconsult
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Milho Segunda Safra
Corn 2nd Crop / Brazil – Planted Area – Season 2003/04 Mato Grosso State – 15% Penetration
Source: Agrosatélite
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Milho Segunda Safra
Corn 2nd Crop / Brazil – Planted Area – Season 2012/13 Mato Grosso State – 43% Penetration
Source: Agrosatélite
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Soybeans /Brazil – Production and Exports Forecast (5 years)
Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.
52 50 52 55 58 60 57 69 75 6682 90
104
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
mm
t
20 20 20 26 23 25 30 29 30 36 41 4657
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
mm
tSoybeans Production (mmt)
Soybeans Exports (mmt)
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45 42 35 42 51 59 51 56 5773 82 76
95
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
mm
t
4 51 3
8 8 7 9 12 13
27
17
27
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
mm
t
Corn /Brazil – Production and Exports Forecast (5 years)
Corn Production (mmt)
Corn Exports (mmt)
Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.
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Source: DNIT, PAC, VALE, ALL, Ministério dos Transportes. Elaborated by Agroconsult
Santos
Santarém
Itacoatiara
Porto Velho
Itaqui
ALL MP
Rio Grande
São Francisco do Sul
Uruaçu
Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Vila do Conde
ParanaguáLegend:HighwayRailwayWaterway
City
Port
Production Cluster
Colinas
Estrela d’Oeste
Santana
MirititubaMarabá
Alô Brasil
Querência
Balsas
Unaí
Catalão
Rio Verde
Ribeirão Cascalheira
Logistics – Main Projects / 5 years
Paving of BR-163 from Guarantã do Norte/MT to Santarém/PA + River Port of Miritituba/PA +
Port of Santana/AP
Paving of BR-158 from Alô Brasil/MT to Villa Rica/MT + River Port of Marabá/PA + Port of Vila do Conde/PA
Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Estrela d’Oeste + BR-080 building from BR-158, at Ribeirão Cascalheira/MT, to
Uruaçu/GO
Vila do Conde
LEM
Uruçuí
Sorriso
2014
20162015
2013 (Auction)
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South and Southeast:44,5MMT
84%
North, Northeast and Center-West:
8,2 MMT16%
Itaqui (6%)
Santos (37%)
São Francisco do Sul (8%)
Vitória (7%)
Santarém (2%)
Itacoatiara (4%)
Aratu (3%)
Rio Grande (10%)Current Ports
Logistics – Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports
Paranaguá (22%)
Producing Regions Exporting Ports
Source: Secex. Elaborated by Agroconsult
2012
South and Southeast:75 MMT
46%
North, Northeast and Center-West:88 MMT
54%
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South and Southeast:68 MMT
61%
North, Northeast and Center-West:
43 MMT39%
Itaqui (11%)
Santos (26%)
São Francisco do Sul (6%)
Vitória (5%)
Santarém (6%)
Itacoatiara (4%)
Santana (5%)
Aratu (4%)
Vila do Conde (7%)
Rio Grande (7%)
Current PortsFuture Ports (Projects)
Logistics – Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports
Paranaguá (17%)
South and Southeast:82 MMT
43%
North, Northeast and Center-West:111 MMT
57%
Producing Regions Exporting Ports2022
Source: Agroconsult
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6,91,9
2,9 1,0 12,8 0,4 0,8 13,912,0
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
MT – Sorriso – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua
New Route: BR-163 + Port of Miritituba + Port of Santarem or Santana
6,91,9
2,1 1,0 12,0 0,1 0,8 12,911,0
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
Santana
BR-163
Tapajós / Amazonas Santarém
Miritituba
Sorriso
Logistics costs: 25% Reduction
Sorriso
ALL
SantosParanaguá
Logistics – New projects in the MT State (North Region)
Logistics costs: 27% Reduction
(8%)
Source: Agroconsult
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0,95
0,22
0,56
0,41
0,12 0,09
0,70
0,11
0,42
0,20
0,08 0,05 0,14
0,04
0,27
0,06 0,03 0,03 Paranagua
Corridor(Public Terminal)
ParanaguaOthers
(Private Terminal)
SantosCorridor
(Prublic Terminal)
SantosOthers
(Private Terminal)
Itaqui Santarem
Max
Average
Min
Waiting (Oil and Demurrage) (USD/bu)
Logistics – Soybeans Waiting Cost of Shippers at Ports
Source: Agroconsult
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6,6 2,02,8 1,0 12,5 0,4 0,8 13,7
11,7
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
6,6 2,02,3 1,0 12,0 0,04 0,6 12,7
10,7
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
MT – Querência – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua
New Route: BR 158 + Port of Maraba + Port of Vila do Conde
Logistics costs: 47% Reduction
Logistics – New projects in the MT state (East Region)
Logistics costs: 18% Reduction
(7%)
BR-158Querência
Vila do Conde
Marabá
SantosParanaguá
ALL
Pederneiras
Paraná / Tietê
Querência
São Simão
Source: Agroconsult
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6,6 2,02,8 1,0 12,5 0,4 0,8 13,7
11,7
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
MT – Querência – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua
Logistics – New projects in the MT state (East Region)
6,6 2,02,6 1,0 12,2 0,08 0,6 12,9
10,9
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
New Route: BR-080 + FNS + Port of Itaqui
Logistics costs: 43% Reduction
Logistics costs: 7% Reduction
(6%)
Querência
Itaqui
BR-080Uruaçu
SantosParanaguá
ALL
Pederneiras
Paraná / Tietê
Querência
São Simão
FNS
Source: Agroconsult
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MA – Balsas – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)
PR – Cascavel – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)
7,72,8 0,7 1,0 12,2 0,2 0,7 13,1
10,4
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
7,22,0 1,3 1,0 11,4 0,1 0,6 12,1
10,2
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil, Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
ItaquiFNS
BalsasPorto Franco
Cascavel Paranaguá
Logistics – Current logistics in the MA and PR state
Source: Agroconsult
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U.S. / IOWA – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)
ARG – North of BA – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu)
4,04,7 0,6
3,8 13,1 0,10 1,4 14,6
9,9
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil,
Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
6,0
5,11,0 1,0 13,2 0,06 1,2 14,4
9,3
On FarmCosts
Land Rent Dom.Freight
Trading/Operational
FOBCOST
Waiting(Oil,
Demurrage)
Inter.Freight
CIF - ChinaCOST
CIF - ChinaCOST
(no land)
St. Louis
New Orleans
Davenport
Mississippi
Rosário
Junín35%
Export Tax
Source: Agroconsult
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Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
CIF Cost to CHINA – Comparison of BRA, USA and ARG (USD/bu)
14,0 13,7 13,1
12,1
14,4 14,6
12,9 12,7 ?
?
14,4 14,6
MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S.(PNW and Gulf)
Argentina(Rosario and B. Blanca)
CurrentFuture
12,1 11,7
10,4 10,2 9,3
9,9
11,0 10,7 ? ? 9,3
9,9
MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S.(PNW and Gulf)
Argentina(Rosario and B. Blanca)
CurrentFuture
WithLand Rent
WithoutLand Rent
Source: Agroconsult
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Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
FOB Cost – Comparison of BRA, USA and ARG (USD/bu)
WithLand Rent
WithoutLand Rent
Source: Agroconsult
12,8 12,5 12,2
11,4
13,2 13,1
12,0 12,0 ?
?
13,2 13,1
MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S.(PNW and Gulf)
Argentina(Rosario and B. Blanca)
CurrentFuture
10,9 10,5
9,5 9,4
8,1 8,4
10,1 10,0 ? ?
8,1 8,4
MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S.(PNW and Gulf)
Argentina(Rosario and B. Blanca)
CurrentFuture
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Source: Agroconsult. FOB Cost including land rent.
12,7USD/bu
11,6USD/bu
12,3USD/bu
12,1USD/bu
12,3USD/bu
11,5USD/bu
12,8USD/bu
11,4 USD/bu
10,9USD/bu
Soybeans FOB Costs (USD/bu)
Compound Average Soybeans FOB Cost :
USD 12,1 / bu
< 11,0 USD/bu
11,0 – 11,5 USD/bu
11,5 – 12,0 USD/bu
12,0 – 12,5 USD/bu
> 12,5 USD/buHighest
Lowest
11,1 USD/bu11,5
USD/bu
FOB Cost
Itaqui
Santos
São Francisco do Sul
Vitória
Santarém
Itacoatiara
Santana
Aratu
Vila do Conde
Rio Grande
Paranaguá
Current PortsFuture Ports (Projects)
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Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
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Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
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