79527685 bullish review first look jan 12 2012

8/3/2019 79527685 Bullish Review First Look Jan 12 2012

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By Steve Briese, Saturday, January 14, 2012

Based on the Commitments of Traders tabulated Tue, January 10, 2012 released Fri, January 13, 2012.

Commercial selling triggered a COT Fisher sell signalwarning. These progress to actual sell signals in 95%of cases. Combined with last week's minor sell signalin Dow futures, we expect a resumption in the major

downtrend. Stock indexes are in weak hands with bothlarge trader groups net short and only small tradersholding more long than short contracts This providesplenty of long-liquidation fuel for the next downleg.

Both trend-following CTAs and counter-trend-trad-ing commercials set new all time records, keeping theDollar Index speculatively overbought in the extremeThis condition is not unusual in a major uptrend--note

the textbook COT Index bull market pattern (circled).There is no telling how overbought a bull trend maybecome before an eventual correction. A trailing stop-loss can help in holding longs for maximum gains.

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Statements andrecommendations are subject to the limitations inherent in market analysis and may be changed without notice. No claim is made that futurrecommendations will be as profitable as past performance or that they will not result in losses. All trade references should be considered hypotheticalThis report should be considered provisional; check Monday's Bullish Review newsletter for complete analysis.

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. Those using this information are responsible for their own actions.

© 2012 Insider Capital Group • 362 Gulf Breeze Pkwy • Gulf Breeze, FL 32561 • www.InsiderCapital.com

Tel 1-888-423-4950 850-677-1966 • Fax: 1-850-677-3521 • Re transmittal or duplication in any form is illegal and strictly prohibited.

STOCK INDEXES COT 43% 5 DOLLAR INDEX COT 0% 1

Charts on the first two pages are sector com-posites, which will not agree with the indi-vidual market COT Indexes listed on page 3.

http://www.insidercapital.com/


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Commercials were sellers on strength--their normalpattern--keeping the COT Index in bull market mode.High prices & Fed manipulation make risk / reward un-attractive, suggesting we stand aside Treasury futures.

There was very little movement in net positions. CTAsremain heavily exposed net long, making the preciousmetals sector vulnerable to deep, cascading declineswhen the primary bear trend resumes.

Commercials were net sellers for the week, triggeringa major COT sell signal. We expect a COT sell signal torestart the downtrend. The huge overhanging CTA netlong position creates the potential for a large decline.

Continued commercial selling triggered a COT-Fishesell signal warning, suggesting the next leg of theprimary downtrend off the September 9, 2011 majoCOT sell signal is beginning.

January 13, 2012 Bullish Review

TREASURYS COT 14% 4 OIL COMPLEX COT 5% 13

PRECIOUS METALS COT 92% 8 SOY COMPLEX COT 63% 7

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>> = COT Extreme Level (COT Index above 90% or below 5%)

> = COT Extreme Movement (plus or minus 40 point change in COT Index within last six weeks)

COT INDEXES (Futures + Options)COMMERCIAL HEDGER LARGE SPECULATOR SMALL TRADER LAST

SYMBOL 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE 10. Jan. 2012 CHANGE COMMENT

INDEXES

CRB 75% -6 23% +4 17% +9 #874

> DowInd 35% +1 48% -5 90% +11 #876

NASDAQ 25% -4 69% +8 70% -17 #876

NIKKEI 86% -1 6% -4 57% +7 #838

S&P500 51% -1 38% -4 64% +8 #876

METAL> GOLD 86% -8 11% +5 30% +14 #876

COPPER 83% -3 15% 0 25% +10 #860

>> PLATIN 90% -1 12% +1 6% -1 #870

SILVER 85% -10 12% +5 16% +16 #872

CURRENCY

> AUSSI$ 34% -10 67% +7 52% +11 #873

POUND 66% +3 38% -2 15% -5 #875

>> CANAD$ 96% 0 0% -2 28% +14 #875

>> EUROFX 100% 0 0% 0 19% +3 #875

>> $INDEX 0% -1 94% 0 96% +6 #871

>> YEN 5% -3 98% +2 72% +6 #874

Kiwi $ 36% -16 64% +10 59% +24 #866

PESO 88% -4 10% +3 26% +4 #866

>>SWISS 100% +2 9% +4 0% -6 #875

FINANCIAL

3MO-ED 85% -9 9% +5 45% +33 #836

>> 5YR-TN 0% -9 93% +14 88% +3 #874

2YR-TN 44% 0 38% +3 81% -9 #870

10Y-TN 28% +1 82% +6 65% -15 #874

30Y-TB 40% +2 45% -5 82% +3 #874

GRAIN

SB-OIL 59% -4 44% +8 23% -9 #876

CORN 47% 0 48% -2 47% 0 #872

KC-WHT 57% +1 42% -2 35% +2 #859

MN-WHT 35% +18 76% -16 46% -19 #774

>> OATS 91% +5 23% -6 11% +5 #835

>> RRICE 100% +2 0% -3 29% +3 #829

SBeans 58% -4 49% +7 40% -12 #858

S-MEAL 77% -8 21% +7 25% +10 #870

WHEAT 87% +5 8% -10 31% +15 #859

MEAT

FEEDER 29% -5 75% -4 42% +17 #865

CATTLE 70% +7 23% -8 83% +5 #865

> HOGS 57% +5 41% -6 73% +5 #865

FOOD/FIBER

>> COCOA 92% -1 4% -3 37% +21 #851

> COTTON 56% -7 42% +10 53% -3 #865

COFFEE 86% 0 17% -1 14% +5 #859LUMBER 80% +2 18% -7 75% +15 #876

OJ 63% +6 36% -6 56% -1 #871

>> SUGAR 96% +10 5% -9 6% -10 #862

PETROLEUM

CRUDE 18% -12 80% +9 77% +14 #871

H-OIL 26% -11 44% -7 100% +31 #870

NATGAS 42% -15 69% +17 25% -1 #821

Gasoli 8% -6 88% +6 84% +5 #686




CURRENCIES

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR BRITISH POUND

CANADIAN DOLLAR EURO CURRENCY

JAPANESE YEN SWISS FRANC

Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions




FINANCIAL & INDEXES

S&P 500 DOW 30 INDEX

NASDAQ 100 INDEX NIKKEI 225 INDEX

10-YEAR T-NOTES 30-YEAR T-BONDS





METALS

GOLD SILVER

PLATINUM PALLADIUM

COPPER LUMBER





ENERGY & LIVESTOCK

CRUDE OIL HEATING OIL

RBOB GASOLINE NATURAL GAS

LIVE CATTLE LEAN HOGS





GRAIN & SOY

CORN SOYBEANS

WHEAT SOYMEAL

OATS SOYBEAN OIL





FOOD & FIBER

COFFEE COTTON

COCOA ORANGE JUICE

SUGAR #11 ROUGH RICE


79527685 bullish review first look jan 12 2012

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