7612 traffic study for chenani nashri tunnel project

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CHENANI NASHRI TUNNELWAY LIMITED

Ref No: CNTL/PRJ/TEC/ICO-581/7612 Date: 29

th

May 2013

M/S Euroestudios Consulting Engineer

Ekta Vihar Rount, Near Housing Colony

Udhampur-182101

PH No: 01992277950 Fax: 01992276950

Attention: Mr. Valentin Salcedo

Job : Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project.

Subject : Traffic Study for Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project.

Reference: Your letter no. S-CO-TE.RO-1346 dated 26.05.2013.

Dear Sir,

With reference to the above referred letter. We are enclosing herewith traffic study report for

Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project which was conducted between 09.04.2013 to 16.04.2013.

This is for your review please.

Thanking You

Yours Faithfully,

For Chenani Nashri Tunnelway Limited

J S Rathore

(Project Director)

Encl: Traffic Study Report



IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS

-

PROJECT IN THE STATE OF

JAMMU & KASHMIR

NASHRI

BATOTE

CHENANI

PATNITOP

KUD



Chenani – Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir STC

CONTENTS

S.no. Description Pages

1.0 INTRODUCTION 1-2

1.1 General 1-1

1.2 Objective 1-1

1.3 Scope of Work 1-11.4 Project Submission 1-2

2.0 TRAFFIC STUDIES 2-1 to 2-22

2.1 Traffic Survey and Analysis 2-1

2.2 Project Background 2-1

2.3 Traffic Surveys 2-1

2.4 Traffic Characteristics 2-5

2.5 Travel Characteristics 2-13

3.0 TRAFFIC FORECAST 3-1 to 3-20

3.1 Approach to Traffic Forecast 3-1

3.2 Past trends in Demographics and Socio-Economic Parameters 3-2

3.3 Estimation of Traffic Growth Rate for normal Traffic 3-73.4 Traffic Volume Projections 3-20




TABLES

2.1 Traffic Survey Schedule 2-22.2 Vehicle Classification Systems 2-3

2.3 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Survey locations 2-5

2.4 Observed Peak Hour Traffic Characteristics 2-6

2.5 Directional Distribution (in PCU) on project road (%) 2-7

2.6 Traffic composition at surveyed location (%) 2-10

2.7 Toll Exempted Vehicles at Survey Locations (%) 2-10

2.8 AADT for the Project Road 2-12

2.9 VDF at Survey Location at Km-73 on NH-1A 2-13

2.10 Adopted Zoning System for Project Road 2-14

2.11 Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 73 (in Percentage) 2-18

2.12 Distribution of trips in Project influence area at Km 130 (in Percentage) 2-192.13(a) Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicle At Km 73 2-20

2.13(b) Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicle At Km 130 2-20

2.14(a) Vehicle Wise Commodity Distribution In Percentage (Km73) 2-21

2.14(b) Vehicle Wise Commodity Distribution In Percentage (Km130) 2-21

3.1 India - National Income (1993-94 Prices) [Historical] 3-3

3.2 Economic Growth (%) During Different Periods (constant 1993 Prices) 3-4

3.3 Horizon GDP Rates - India 3-4

3.4 J&K – NSDP (2004-05 Prices) 3-4

3.5 Punjab – NSDP (2004-05 Prices) 3-5

3.6 Rajasthan – NSDP (2004-05 Prices) 3-5

3.7 Maharashtra – NSDP (2004-05 Prices) 3-63.8 Delhi – NSDP (2004-05 Prices) 3-6

3.9 Population Trend 3-7

3.10 Per Capita Income Trend 3-7

3 11 Regression Analysis Result With Vehicle Registration Data 3 8




TABLES

3.18a Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 90.5 3-18

3.18b Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 130 3-19

3.19 Projected Traffic on Tunnel Section 3-20

FIGURES

2.1 Project Road and Surrounding Network 2-2

2.2 Project Road and Traffic Survey Locations 2-3

2.3 Day wise variation of Total Traffic on the Project Road 2-7

2.4 Hourly variation of traffic 2-8

2.5 Traffic Composition on Project Road 2-9

2.6 a Internal Zones 2-15

2.6 b External Zones 2-16

2.6 c External Zones 2-16

2.6 d External Zones 2-17

ANNEXURE

2.1 Traffic Formats

2.2 ADT

2.3 Petrol Data

2.4

2.5

AADT

VDF2.6 OD Matrices & Desire line

3.1 Registered Vehicle data

3.2 Regression Analysis

3 3 Traffic Projection at Normal Growth (Without Diversion and Without Generated



CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION



Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir TC

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 General

The National Highway Authority of India is engaged in the development of National

Highways and as part of this endeavor, the Authority has undertaken “Chenani - Nashri Road

Tunnel Project in the State of

Jammu & Kashmir.”

Once entire NH - 1A from

Jammu to Srinagar is four lane

by 2016 – 17, the journey would

be safe, comfortable and less

time consuming. Further the

railway link from Jammu toSrinagar would also be available

for users by that time.

M/s IL&FS Transportation

Networks Ltd (ITNL), one of

the pioneer contracting firms of

India, has been awarded the

contract for construction of

project road and M/s ITNL has

appointed M/s Shweta

Technophile Consultants Pvt

Ltd for carrying out the Traffic

Services to assess the future

traffic on the project road.

1.2 Objective

The main objective of the study



Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir TC

1.4 Project Submission

The major submission as per the scope is;

Traffic Report



CHAPTER 2

TRAFFIC STUDIES



Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir STC

Chapter 2: Traffic Studies

2.1 Traffic Surveys and Analysis

Traffic surveys and their analysis are important factors for planning and designing of the

highways. This sections presents quantum, location and methodology of conducting traffic

surveys and analyses carried out for addressing various objectives and issues pertaining to

traffic on project road.

The traffic study aims at estimating the base year daily traffic and travel characteristics on the

project corridor and forecasting the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for project

horizon year considering various constituent streams namely normal, induced and divertible

traffic on the project road.

2.2

Project Background

The Chenani - Nashri tunnel is a part of planned four-lane widening of the National Highway

1A between Jammu & Srinagar. Once entire NH – 1A from Jammu to Srinagar is four lane by

2016 – 17, it is expected that tollable traffic may increase by many folds on Project Road. As

so many tunnels with alternative routes like railway link from Jammu to Srinagar are

available for road users by that time.

The project highway which is 41 km. (from Km. 89 to Km. 130) passes through Udhampur

and Ramban districts in the state of Jammu & Kashmir.

The alignment of the project road and its surrounding road network is shown in Figure 2.1.

2.3 Traffic Surveys

In order to understand the characteristics and the volume of traffic using the project road, data

on road network and traffic and travel pattern of vehicles plying on the project road was

collected through primary surveys.

The following traffic surveys were conducted in this study:




Figure 2.1 Project Road and Surrounding Network

Table 2.1: Traffic Survey Schedule

Type of Survey Highway Location Duration

Period

From To

Classified Volume

Count

NH-1A Km. 90.5 7 days 9-4-2013 16-4-2013

NH-1A Km. 130 7 days 9-4-2013 16-4-2013

O i i D ti ti

NH-1A Km. 73* 1 day 15-4-2013 16-4-2013




Figure 2.2: Project Road and Traffic Survey Locations

Survey Methodology:

Classified Traffic Volume Counts:

The classified traffic volume count survey has been carried out at two locations representing

north portal and south portal of the road tunnel project. Traffic counts have been recorded

continuously for seven consecutive days for 24 hours on each day for both the points. For

carrying out the counts; the vehicles have been grouped under the following categories as in

Table 2.2.

Table 2.2: Vehicle Classification Systems

Motorised Traffic Non-Motorised Traffic

2 wheelers, Auto rickshaw (3-wheeler),Passenger Car, Bicycle, Cycle Rickshaw, Animal




For the purpose of counts, a day was

divided into two shifts of 12 hours each

and different groups of enumerators with

a supervisor have been assigned for each

shift. The count data was recorded at 15-

minute intervals for each vehicle group

for each direction of travel separately.

Hourly totals have been made in the end

of the shift. The Performa used forrecording the information is shown in

Annexure 2.1.

Origin-Destination Survey:

The origin-destination survey has been carried out with the primary objective of studying the

travel pattern of goods and passenger traffic along the study corridor. The results will also be

useful for identifying the influence area of the project road, estimation of divertible traffic,

estimation of tollable traffic, estimating the growth rates of traffic and planning tolling

strategies.

The O-D survey was carried out for one

day. Roadside interview method was

adopted for the survey. The vehicles were

stopped on random sample basis with the

help of Police officials, and trained

enumerators interviewed the drivers to

obtain the required data. During the

surveys, the information pertaining to

origin and destination of the trip, trip

length, frequency, return trip commoditytypes, loading pattern and trip purpose as applicable for various vehicle types were recorded.

This trip frequency will be used in the estimation of tollable vehicles. The Performa used for

recording the information is shown in Annexure 2.1.




selection method was adopted for the survey. The vehicles were stopped on random sample

basis with the help of Police and loads on the each axle of the vehicle have been measured to

estimate the loading pattern of the vehicles on the project road. The Performa used for

recording the information is shown in Annexure 2.1.

2.4 Traffic Characteristics

The following traffic characteristics have been presented in the subsequent sections:

Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

Hourly variation and Peak Hour Factor (PHF)

Directional distribution

Traffic composition

Toll Exempted Vehicles

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The traffic volume data collected during the surveys was averaged out to arrive at the

Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the project road. The summaries of ADT in terms of

vehicles and PCU for both count stations on NH-1A are presented in Table 2.3. The day-wise

details pertaining to traffic by direction at the survey locations are given in Annexure 2.2.

Table 2.3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Survey locations

Mode Km. 90.5, NH 1A Km. 130, NH 1A

Tollable vehicles

Car/Jeep/Van 1402 1140

Taxis 1537 1259

Traveller 224 287

Mini Bus 33 97

Govt. Bus 35 21

Pvt. Bus 210 175

School Bus 2 2

Car Goods 294 277

LCV (1-1) 62 35





Non Tollable vehicles

Two wheeler 90 79

Auto Rickshaw 5 9

Agri. Tractors 12 19

NMT 2 1

Total Tollable 6302 5828

Total Toll Exempt 406 531

Total Vehicles 6708 6359Total PCU 12549 12386

Traffic observed at Km 90.5 was 6708 vehicles (12549 PCUs) and at km130 was 6359

vehicles (12386 PCUs). The variation in traffic at both locations is due to the traffic

originated / destined from Patnitop, Doda & Kishtwar.

Tollable traffic are about 95% of total traffic at Km. 90.5 and about 92% of total traffic at

Km. 130 of NH 1A.

The day wise variation of total traffic at the count stations shows a slight variation over the

week, with peaks on Thursday at Km. 90.5 and on Wednesday at Km. 130 (Figure 2.3)

Peak Hour Factor (PHF) and Hourly Variation

The hourly variation of traffic illustrates the distribution of traffic over the day with respect to

time, and the peak hour factor is the maximum percentage of the total traffic that uses the

project highway in single hour of the day. It is of significance as highway capacities and

design calculations are based on PHF. The peak hour factor observed at the count stations are

summarized in Table 2.4.

Table 2.4: Observed Peak Hour Traffic Characteristics

Survey Locations Traffic Peak

Hour (PCUs)

Traffic % Peak

hour (of ADT)

Observed Peak

Hour

Km 90.5, NH 1A 772 6.32 10: 00 to 11: 00

Km. 130, NH 1A 742 6.13 12: 00 to 13: 00




Table 2.5: Directional distribution (in PCU) on project road (%)

Direction Km 90.5, NH 1A Km. 130, NH 1A

Chenani To Nashri 52.58 50.87

Nashri To Chenani 47.52 49.13

Figure 2.3: Day wise Variation of Total Traffic on the Project Road




Figure 2.4: Hourly variation of Traffic

Traffic Composition




Figure 2.5: Traffic Composition on Project Road




Table 2.6: Traffic Composition at surveyed locations (%)

Mode Km. 90.5 (NH 1A) Km. 130 (NH 1A)Tollable vehicles

Car/Jeep/Van 20.94 17.98

Taxis 22.95 19.86

Traveller 3.35 4.53

Mini Bus 0.49 1.53

Govt. Bus 0.52 0.33

Pri. Bus 3.14 2.76School Bus 0.03 0.03

Car Goods 4.39 4.37

LCV (1-1) 0.93 0.55

LCV (1-2) 2.67 2.63

2 Axle 26.37 27.07

3 Axle 6.29 6.83

MAV 1.96 2.16

Construction 0.09 1.29

Toll Exempt vehicles

Car/Jeep/Van 0.99 1.28

Bus 1.09 1.37

LCV 0.72 2.48

Trucks 1.46 1.23


Two wheeler 1.34 1.25

Auto Rickshaw 0.07 0.14

Agri. Tractors 0.18 0.30

NMT 0.03 0.02

Passenger vehicles represent around 52 % of total movements at Km 90.5 and around 47% at

Km.130 of NH 1A.

Freight vehicles represent around 43% of total traffic at Km 90.5 and around 45% at Km. 130

of NH 1A.

Toll Exempted Vehicles





Total Count 320 285

% of respective count 22.81 30.53

LCV 53 172

Total Count 294 374


Trucks 107 86

Total Count 2294 2235


The proportion of exempt vehicles, for Car/Jeep/Van, Buses. LGV and Trucks is rather more

due to the fact the movement of army vehicles in the region.

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

The traffic plying on any road generally varies over different periods of the year depending on

the cycle of different socio-economic activities in the regions through which it passes.Therefore, in order to have a more realistic picture of the traffic on the project road, it is

required to assess seasonal variation in traffic to estimate the Annual Average Daily Traffic

(AADT). Therefore, the ADT observed during the survey duration is multiplied by a Seasonal

Correction Factor (SCF) to derive an AADT. The seasonal correction factor is generally

derived from secondary data sources such as past month-wise traffic data on the project road,

monthly toll revenues from existing tolled highways in the immediate influence area, sales of

fuel at different filling stations along the project highway, arrival of vehicles at establishments

like APMC, Truck Terminals, Railway Goods Stations, etc.

The average daily traffic has to be adjusted for seasonal variation. The seasonal correction

factor has been estimated using the information collected from petrol pumps along the project

road. The analysis to assess seasonality and details are presented in Annexure 2.3.

The adopted seasonal correction factors are: For cars the average SCF, as derived from the fuel stations considered, SCF returned

a value of 1.14 has been adopted for the month of April.

For buses, as they generally ply on fixed and scheduled routes, a uniform SCF of 1.17

was considered (considering the impact of Amarnath Yatra and Tourist Season).




Table 2.8: AADT for the Project Road

Mode Km. 90.5, NH 1A Km. 130, NH 1ATollable vehicles

Car/Jeep/Van 1595 1297

Taxis 1749 1433

Traveller 255 327

Mini Bus 39 113

Govt. Bus 41 25

Pri. Bus 245 204School Bus 2 2

Car Goods 343 323

LCV (1-1) 72 41

LCV (1-2) 209 195

2 Axle 2062 2003

3 Axle 491 506

MAV 153 160

Construction 7 96

Toll Exempt vehicles

Car/Jeep/Van 66 81

Bus 73 87

LCV 52 170

Trucks 106 85


Two wheeler 90 79

Auto Rickshaw 5 9

Agri. Tractors 12 19

NMT 2 1

Total Tollable 7263 6725

Total Toll Exempt 406 531Total Vehicles 7669 7256

Total PCU 14427 14223

Tollable PCUs 13542 13201

Estimation of Vehicle Damage Factor:




Table 2.9: VDF at Survey Location at Km 73 on NH 1A

ModeChenani toUdhampur

Udhampurto Chenani

LGV (4 Tyre) 0.17 0.25

LGV (6 Tyre) 0.30 0.57

2 Axle Truck 0.64 3.15


MAV 0.24 5.27

2.5 Travel Characteristics

In order to understand the travel demand pattern in the region and tollable traffic streams,

origin and destination (OD) surveys were carried out in proximity of the count stations on the

project road. The OD surveys were carried out for 24 hours, by roadside interview method as

described in IRC: 102-1988. Police assistance for the surveys was arranged and both

passenger and commercial vehicles plying on the project road were stopped on a random

sampling basis and interviewed.

The travel characteristics obtained by OD survey facilitate the identification of:

Local and through traffic on the project road.

Potential divertible traffic to/from project road to various alternative routes.

Trained enumerators under the supervision of traffic engineers collected the trip

characteristics using survey forms designed for this purpose.

The OD survey elicited characteristics like origin, destination, frequency, purpose of trip for

passenger vehicles and commodity being transported for goods vehicles. The information

pertaining to origin and destination of trips collected during roadside interviews was analyzed

to obtain the trip distribution based on a zoning system suitably designed for the present

study.

Data Checking:

The collected data has been entered into the computer and also verified manually. Incorrect




Adopted Zoning System:

For analysis of O-D data collected from the field, it is required to code it for origin anddestination of trip. The zoning has been done at four levels. In first level, all-important

locations along the project stretch were assigned a zone code. Secondly, immediate influence

areas of project road were considered and nearby areas/towns were defined as zones. In the

next level, all nearby districts were grouped in zones. Finally, states beyond the influence area

were aggregated broadly in terms of direction of project road. In all, total 46 traffic zones

were considered for the project road. The list of traffic zones are presented in Tables 2.10

and figure 2.6 a, b, c & d

Table 2.10: Adopted Zoning System for Project Road

S. No. OD Zones (Chenani-Nashri)

Zone

No.

1 Chenani 1

2 Dogra 2

3 Kud 3

4 Patnitop 4

5 Ladhwal Mod 5

6 Tringla 6

7 Batote 7

8 Chanpa 8

9 Nashri 910 Chandrakot 10

11 Ramban 11

12 Ramsoo 12

13 Banihal 13

14 Doru Shahabad / Nadodra 14

15 Qazigund 15

16 Anantnag 1617 Srinagar 17

18 Doda 18

19 Kishtwar 19

20 Udhampur 20

STC




S. No. OD Zones (Chenani-Nashri)

Zone

No.

32 Kishtwar Dt. 3233 Rajouri, Punch 33

34 Kulgam, Pulwama, Shupiyan, Badgam 34

35 Baramula, Kupwara, Bandipore, Ganderbal 35

36 Kargil, Leh 36

37 Punjab 37

38 Himachal Pradesh 38

39 Haryana 3940 Delhi 40

41 Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand 41

42 Rajasthan, Gujarat 42

43 Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa 43

44 Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal 44

45 North Eastern States 45

46 Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala 46

Figure 2.6 a: Internal Zones

STC




Figure 2.6 b: External Zones

Figure 2.6 c: External Zones

STC




Figure 2.6 d: External Zones

Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

Gujarat

Uttar Pradesh

Karnataka

Andhra Pradesh

Orissa

West Bengal Jharkhand

Bihar

Nepal

Uttaranchal

Himachal Pradesh Punjab

Haryana

Delhi

Chhattisgarh

Jammu & Kashmir

Sikkim

Bhutan

Bangladesh

Goa

42

37

39

40

41

38

43

45

44

46

STC




Expansion Factors and Development of Origin-Destination Matrices:

The origin-destination details were collected from the trip makers during the O-D survey onsample basis as stopping and interviewing all the vehicles was not possible. The sample size

varied for different survey locations depending upon the quantum of traffic volume moving

on the road. Sampling rate varied with the changes in traffic flow during different parts of the

day at the same location as well. Care had been taken to eliminate any element of bias in the

sampling method. Since the data was collected on the sample basis expansion factors are

required to replicate the pattern as reflected in the sample to the total number of vehicular

trips made during the day. These expansion factors are calculated separately for each class of

vehicle. For Example if “xc “ is the number of cars interviewed and “Xc“ is the total number

of cars counted during the day, then “Xc/xc“ is the expansion factor for Cars.

OD Matrices will be developed to assess the traffic movement pattern. These matrices

actually provide distribution of trips for each zone as various inter-zonal movements.

Multiplying the sample O-D matrix obtained from the survey data with the expansion factor

develops the vehicle wise O-D matrices for both the survey locations. Accordingly matrices,

by various vehicle categories, will be developed On the basis of O-D matrices; travel pattern

of the vehicles moving on the project road would be analyzed to arrive at the toll-able traffic

for project road. The OD matrices and desire lane diagram so developed are presented in

Annexure 2.6.

Travel Pattern:

Distribution of trips in project influence area:

The share of trips from major areas within the project road and distribution by share of state

for both the locations is presented in Table 2.11 and 2.12.

Table 2.11: Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 73 (in Percentage)

Zone / Mode Cars

Govt

Bus

Pvt

Bus

Mini

Bus

Car

Goods LGV

2

Axle

3

Axle MAV

Kud 1.06 0.00 0.64 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00

Patnitop 4.25 0.00 3.21 9.09 4.58 0.60 0.37 0.00 1.25

Batote 0.80 5.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 2.98 0.87 0.28 0.00

Ramban 3.03 5.00 7.05 22.73 5.42 1.79 1.00 0.00 0.00

Ch i N h i R d T l P j i h S f J & K h i STC




Zone / Mode Cars

Govt

Bus

Pvt

Bus

Mini

Bus

Car

Goods LGV

2

Axle

3

Axle MAV

Doda Dt. 0.58 0.00 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Kulgam, Side 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 2.50

Kargil, Leh 0.37 0.00 0.00 4.55 0.00 0.60 0.25 0.00 0.00

Punjab 1.01 0.00 0.00 4.55 0.00 4.76 5.23 20.11 23.75

Haryana 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.19 0.25 0.28 0.00

Delhi 0.27 0.00 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.60 3.61 3.91 0.00

Rajasthan,

Gujarat 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.56 6.25Maharashtra

Side 0.11 0.00 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 5.00

About 35% of cars and 35% of Buses are originating/ destined from Jammu.

About 35% of cars and 22% of private buses are originating/ destined from Srinagar.

Majority of traffic is originated from Jammu & Kashmir. Within state, Jammu, Srinagar and

Udhampur are major attractors of trips.

Majority of the LGV’s are originating/ destined from Jammu , Srinagar and Udhampur.

About 36% of 2-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu and 43% from Srinagar.

About 19% of 3-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu & 48% from Srinagar.

About 49% of MAV is originating/ destined from Srinagar and around 22% from Punjab.

Table 2.12: Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 130 (in Percentage)

Zone / Mode Cars

Govt

Bus

Pvt

Bus

Mini

Bus

Car

Goods LGV

2

Axle

3

Axle MAV

Chenani 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Patnitop 0.19 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.39 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.82

Batote 4.01 0.00 0.00 0.23 3.54 0.54 0.38 0.23 0.00

Nashri 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.23 2.36 0.54 0.44 0.23 0.00

Chandrakot 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.36 2.72 0.33 0.00 0.82

Ramban 6.21 0.00 4.81 0.46 9.06 1.63 1.36 0.46 0.82

Banihal 0.81 0.00 4.81 0.93 0.79 1.63 1.20 0.93 0.00Anantnag 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.46 1.57 2.72 1.04 0.46 0.82

Srinagar 39.45 50.00 39.42 45.14 31.10 40.22 42.97 45.14 45.90

Doda 0.62 0.00 0.96 0.23 0.39 0.00 0.11 0.23 0.00

Udhampur 1.72 0.00 3.85 2.08 12.60 1.09 2.02 2.08 0.00

Chenani Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir STC




Zone / Mode Cars

Govt

Bus

Pvt

Bus

Mini

Bus

Car

Goods LGV

2

Axle

3

Axle MAV

Rajasthan,

Gujarat 0.10 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.00 0.54 0.16 1.16 8.20

Maharashtra 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.69 5.74

About 39% of cars and Pvt Buses are originating/ destined from Srinagar and Jammu.

Majority of traffic is originated from Jammu & Kashmir. Within state, Jammu, Srinagar and

Udhampur are major attractors of trips.

Majority of the LGV’s are originating/ destined from Jammu , Srinagar and Udhampur.

About 33% of 2-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu and 43% from Srinagar. About 15% of 3-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu & 45% from Srinagar.

About 46% of MAV is originating/ destined from Srinagar and around 24% from Punjab.

Goods Vehicle - Lead Analysis:

The survey data was analyzed to assess the lead for commercial vehicles. The distribution

observed for different vehicle types is grouped into various ranges. The trip length frequency

is presented in Table 2.13(a) & (b).

Table 2.13 (a): Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicles at Km 73

Lead analysis Car Goods LCV 4&6 2 axle truck 3 axle truck MAV

0-50 6.56 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00

50-100 11.48 2.38 1.47 1.40 0.00

100-200 15.57 9.52 3.40 1.40 2.50

200-500 66.39 76.19 77.89 64.34 55.00

500-1000 0.00 10.71 16.55 25.17 15.00

1000-1500 0.00 0.00 0.23 1.40 10.00

1500-2000 0.00 1.19 0.11 4.20 10.00

>2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 7.50

Average Lead 219.53 325.14 367.51 537.55 774.75

Table 2.13 (b): Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicles at Km 130

Lead analysis Car Goods LCV 4&6 2 axle truck 3 axle truck MAV

0-50 7.09 1.08 0.65 0.46 0.00

50 100 7 87 0 00 1 09 0 46 0 00





Commodity Analysis:

Different commodities recorded during the O-D survey were classified into 11 categories.

Due consideration has been given to include all possible commodities moving along the

project road.

Mode-wise distribution of various commodities is presented in the Table 2.14 (a) & (b).

Table 2.14 (a): Vehicle wise Commodity Distribution in percentage (Km 73)

Commodity

Car Goods LCV 4&62 Axle

truck

3Axle

truck

MAV

Minerals 0.00 0.00 1.70 1.40 2.50

Food Grains 44.26 46.43 15.42 5.59 25.00

Cash Crops 5.74 4.76 0.11 0.00 0.00

Perishables Items 4.10 4.76 0.11 0.70 7.50

Wood and Forest Products 12.30 15.48 0.45 0.70 7.50

Building Materials 5.74 3.57 14.29 4.20 5.00

Oil and Natural Gas 2.46 4.76 12.24 18.88 10.00Grocery Items 9.02 4.76 17.01 30.77 2.50

Manufacturing Items 3.28 4.76 0.91 0.70 0.00

Others 5.74 3.57 7.71 4.90 10.00

Empty 7.38 7.14 30.05 32.17 30.00

Commodity pattern shows prominent movement of food grains through LGVs and Car

Goods.

The pattern shows the prominent movement of Grocery items, building materials & Oil &

Natural gas through 2and 3-Axle trucks.

The pattern also shows the prominent movement of Food grains & Oil & Natural gas through

MAVs.

Table 2.14 (b): Vehicle wise Commodity Distribution in percentage (Km 130)

CommodityCar Goods LCV 4&6

2 Axle

truck

3Axle

truckMAV

0 00 0 00 0 00 1 85 3 28





Commodity pattern shows prominent movement of food grains through LGVs and Car

Goods.

The pattern shows the prominent movement of Grocery items, building materials & Oil &

Natural gas through 2and 3-Axle trucks.

The pattern also shows the prominent movement of Food grains & Oil & Natural gas through

MAVs.



CHAPTER 3

TRAFFIC FORECAST

STC



Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir STC

Chapter 3: Traffic Forecast

3.1 Approach to Traffic Forecast

Investment in the transport sector constitutes a significant part of the total investment. This is

especially true in the case of developing nations, where transport is the catalyst for all round

development and one of the basic infrastructures when the capital available is scarce and has

competing demands, the investments in a transport project have to be carefully planned,

keeping in view not only the present demand but also the requirement for a reasonable period

in future. This underlines the need for estimating the future traffic accurately, whether the

plan is for the construction of a new facility or the improvement of existing facilities. The

accurate estimate of future traffic will have a significant influence on the engineering design

of the facility and on the economic decision forecasting is at best approximate. This chapter

details various aspects of the project road traffic and its growth potential.

Traffic is generated as a result of the interplay of a number of contributory factors. Forecasts

of traffic have therefore to be dependent on the forecasts of factors such as population, GDP,

vehicle ownership, agricultural output, and fuel consumption and the likely future patterns of

change in these factors can be estimated with only a limited degree of accuracy and hence the

forecasting of future traffic levels can not be precise.

It is necessary to distinguish between the following types of traffic:

Current Traffic

This represents the existing traffic that would use the improved highway when it is opened to

traffic.

Divert ed Traffic

This represents the traffic attracted to the improved highway or lost to alternative routes when

the improvements are completed.

Induced Traffic

This represents the increase in traffic as a result of the increased demand for transport if any

STC




vehicles.

There are various techniques have been adopted for estimating growth factors and future

traffic in transport studies viz. Time series growth using previous traffic count , Historical

growth in vehicle registration, and Elasticity of transport demand. The transport demand

elasticity model is used world over for estimating the traffic as it develops the relationship

between factors such as per capita income, Gross Domestic Products, Population with traffic.

The consultants are working on the above aspects. The growth rates would be developed for

the project based on the transport demand Elasticity concept. This method of long-term traffic

forecasting incorporates analyses of some of the key socio-economic characteristics in the

road influence area and their anticipated rates of change during the study period, these

characteristics being taken as indicators for the future growth of traffic.

The growth rates for normal traffic obtained from this approach take some account of the

following factors which affect future traffic levels;

(i)

The prospective growth in the economy;

(ii)

The estimated elasticity of demand for transport, and

(iii)

Changes in the structure of the vehicle fleet, for example vehicle productivity and

changes in the inter-modal share of passenger and freight demand.

Econometric modeling considers measurable demographics and socio-economic parameters

such as population, per capita income (PCI), Net State Domestic Product (NSDP), Gross

Domestic Product (GDP),etc. to establish a relationship with transport demand elasticity. The

influence area of the study corridor established based on the secondary information available

in previous study and development plans in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab,

Rajasthan, and Delhi. Therefore the impact of these states will be considered to arrive at the

project specific growth rates.

3.2

Past Trends in Demographics and Socio -Economic Parameters

India – Past Economic Trends:

It is observed that the GDP of the India has increased from Rs. 401128 Crores in 1980-81 to

Ch i N h i R d T l P j t i th St t f J & K h i STC




during this period. It peaked to a value of 9.2 percent (in 2006-07) from an initial value of

5.12 (in 1992-93). In fact during the past five years 2005-2010 the GDP registered an average

growth rate of 8.5 percent. The steady growth of the economy during this period can beattributed to the economic policies framed in the post liberalization era, which commenced in

1991.

The long term economic growth measured against the base year 1980-81 has decreased to

4.80 percent (in 1987-88) from 5.97 percent (in 1981-82). Thereafter, the long-term economic

growth is over 5 percent and is 6 percent currently (2008-09), a period of over 25 years. A

marginal fall in this growth rate is observed in 1991-92 and 1992-93, the period in which thechanges in macroeconomic policies were initiated.

Average growth of economy during the post liberalization period, 1992-2009, is 6.6 percent

per annum as against 5.22 percent per annum during the previous period (1981-1992). It is

observed that the Indian economy (GDP) is over 5 percent in any review period except during

the period 1982-87 when it was about 4.8 percent. The 5-year growth rate during the period

1992-97 is about 6.7 percent. This is the first 5-year period post liberalization of the economy.Currently, during the period 2005-2009 is over 8.5 percent and is the highest growth period

during the past 25 years or so.

The pattern of growth of Indian economy over the past six decades clearly indicates that the

growth rate of industry was the highest until 1970, a period of twenty years. During the next

twenty years period (1970-90) growth rates of industry and services were almost similar.

Since 1990 the growth rate of services sector is the highest.

Table 3.1: India - National Income (1993-94 Prices) [Historical]

Year GDP (Cr) Annual

Growth (%)

Growth (%)

Since 1980 Year GDP (Cr)

Annual

Growth (%)

Growth (%)

Since 1980

1980 401128 1996 970082 7.84 5.67

1981 425073 5.97 5.97 1997 1016595 4.79 5.62

1982 438079 3.06 4.5 1998 1082748 6.51 5.671983 471742 7.68 5.55 1999 1148367 6.06 5.69

1984 492077 4.31 5.24 2000 1198592 4.37 5.63

1985 513990 4.45 5.08 2001 1267945 5.79 5.63

1986 536257 4.33 4.96 2002 1318362 3.98 5.56





Table 3.2: Economic Growth (%) During Different Periods (Constant 1993 Prices)

Period GDP Pri/Sec

1981 – 1992 5.22 4.37

1992 – 2007 6.60 4.74

1981 – 2007 6.01 4.58

1982 – 1987 4.76 3.53

1987 – 1992 5.53 4.83

1992 – 1997 6.69 6.05

1997 – 2002 5.50 3.182002 – 2007 7.62 5.06

2006 – 2010 8.14 5.46

India – Future Economic Perspective:

Growth of different sectors of Indian economy was forecasted in to the future considering the

historical data during the period 1950–2010 under different trend growth scenarios. Thus, theestimated and assumed growth rates of future GDP are as presented in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3: Horizon GDP Rates – India

Year Low Medium High

2014-2018 6 7 8

2018-2023 6 7 8

Beyond 2023 7 8 9

Jammu and Kashmir – Past Economic Trends:

It is observed that the NSDP of the Jammu and Kashmir has increased from Rs. 2329200 Lacs

in 2004-05 to Rs. 3415700 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 5.65

percent per annum (Table 3.4 ) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the

years and there is no regular trend however from 2008 to 2012 is about 5.58%.

Table 3.4: J&K - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

Year NSDP Growth (%) Since 2004-05

2004-05 2329200





Punjab – Past Economic Trends:

It is observed that the NSDP of the Punjab has increased from Rs. 8610800 Lacs in 2004-05

to Rs. 13806100 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 7.11 percent per

annum (Table 3.5) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and there

is no regular trend however from 2008 to 2012 is about 6.2%.

Table 3.5: Punjab - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)


2004-05 8610800

2005-06 9033000 4.90

2006-07 10007200 7.80

2007-08 10873800 8.36

2008-09 11476600 7.90

2009-10 12180200 7.51

2010-11 12993300 7.29

2011-12 13806100 7.11

Growth for last 5 years 6.20

Rajasthan – Past Economic Trends:

It is observed that the NSDP of the Rajasthan has increased from Rs. 11263572 Lacs in 2004-

05 to Rs. 17265633 Lacs in 2010-11 resulting in a growth of economy of about 7.13 percent

per annum (Table 3.6) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and

there is no regular trend however from 2007 to 2011 is about 6.31%.

Table 3.6: Rajasthan - NSDP (2004-05 Prices )


2004-05 11263572

2005-06 12020228 6.72

2006-07 13434991 9.21

2007-08 14047148 8.052008-09 15062054 7.65

2009-10 15684408 7.03

2010-11 17265633 7.13






Table 3.7: Maharashtra - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)


2004-05 36836871

2005-06 42650340 15.78

2006-07 48807940 15.11

2007-08 54231132 13.83

2008-09 58583421 12.39

2009-10 63482861 11.40

2010-11 70283194 10.98


Delhi – Past Economic Trends:

It is observed that the NSDP of the Delhi has increased from Rs. 9471700 Lacs in 2004-05 to

Rs. 20165300 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 11.50 percent per

annum (Table 3.8) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and there

is no regular trend however from 2006 to 2011 is about 11.10%.

Table 3.8: Delhi - NSDP (2004-05 Prices )


2004-05 9471700

2005-06 10447300 10.30

2006-07 11744400 11.35

2007-08 13068300 11.43

2008-09 14696100 11.65

2009-10 16316100 11.63

2010-11 18097400 11.54

2011-12 20165300 11.50





j f STC

Table 3.9: Population Trend

Year Jammu &

Kashmir

Punjab Rajasthan Maharashtra Delhi

2004-05 10716849 26012000 60670000 102566000 15386000

2005-06 10876997 26493000 61818000 104160000 15831000

2006-07 11034866 26983000 62951000 105740000 16291000

2007-08 11192072 27482000 64077000 107321000 16760000

2008-09 11349791 27990000 65200000 108908000 17236000

2009-10 11506225 28507000 66310000 110485000 17725000

2010-11 11659000 29034000 67401000 112042000 18231000

Since 2005 1.41 1.85 1.77 1.48 2.87

Since 2007 1.39 1.85 1.72 1.46 2.85

Per Capita Income Growth

The trend analysis for the per capita income was analyzed from 2004-05 to 2011-12 periods

using the log regression method. The data and growth rates for the period are presented in

Table 3.10.

Table 3.10: Per Capita Income Trend

Year Jammu &

Kashmir

Punjab Rajasthan Maharashtra Delhi

2004-05 21734 33103 18565 35915 63877

2005-06 22406 34096 19445 40947 69128

2006-07 23375 37087 21342 46158 76243

2007-08 24470 39567 21922 50532 83243

2008-09 25641 41003 23356 51053 91845

2009-10 26344 42727 24166 57458 100050

2010-11 27607 44752 26436 62729 108876

2011-12 28932 46688 . . 119032

Since 2005 4.19 5.16 5.82 9.15 9.39Since 2008 4.17 4.27 5.40 7.70 9.26

3.3 Estimation of Traffic Growth Rate for Normal Traffic




STC

Elasticity to economic growth for freight vehicles have been estimated using total state

income rather than only weighted income from agriculture and manufacturing given the

increasing contribution of the service sector to NSDP.

The mathematical model used for forecasting the growth rates by regression method for

passenger and freight traffic as per IRC: 109-1996 is given below;

For Passenger traffic

Log P = AO + A1 Log (Pop/PCI), P = Traffic Flow in base year

Pop = PopulationPCI = Per Capita Income

For Freight traffic

Log P = AO + A1 Log (NSDP) P = Traffic Flow in base year

NSDP = Net State Domestic Product

The details of regression analysis are presented in Annexure 3.2.The resultant elasticityvalues are presented in Table 3.11.

Table 3.11: Regression Analysis Results with Vehicle Registration Data

Dependent Variable Independent Variable Elasticity

Car/jeep/taxi Weighted VehicleRegistration

PCI Weighted average 1.27

Buses Weighted Vehicle Registration PCI Weighted average 1.07

LGV Weighted Vehicle Registration NSDP Weighted Average 1.47

2 Axle Trucks Weighted Vehicle

Registration NSDP Weighted Average 0.83

3 Axle Trucks Weighted VehicleRegistration NSDP Weighted Average 1.11

MAV Weighted Vehicle Registration NSDP Weighted Average 1.34

Vehicle registration data is used as a proxy for traffic in the absence of past traffic data




terms, etc. have all contributed to the rapid growth in ownership of cars. The elasticity

derived from the regression analysis has therefore been slightly increased to reflect this.

Over the years there is a change in passenger movement with an increasing number of people

shifting towards personalized modes given the low level of service provided by public

transport system. Elasticity values for buses from the regression analysis have been adjusted

to reflect this.

Considering the ongoing technical advancements in the automobile industry, more strict

enforcement of loading limits and general economies of scale, some of the standard two axle

trucks are gradually being replaced by three axle truck and MAVs. LCVs and 2-axle are

generally being used for short distance movements, whilst 3-axle and MAV for long-distance

ones. This shift has already started taking place in different parts of the country, therefore

higher elasticities values have been considered for larger trucks compared to 2-axle.

Generally the spread of economic development induces changes in the spatial distribution of

activities and corresponding changes in transport demand elasticity. As regions become more

and more self-sufficient, the need for long-distance transport diminishes. Accordingly, it was

assumed that transport demand elasticity, for both freight and passenger traffic, would tend to

decline over time, despite growth in per capita income. Elasticity values duly adjusted after

considering all these factors and adopted for the future.

Based on the elasticities developed for project road were estimated with medium economic

perspective were developed and the resulted growth rates are presented in Table 3.12.

Table 3.12: Traffic growth rates for Project Road

Growth Rates CarsMini

Bus

Govt.

Buses

Private

BusesLGV

2 Axle

Truck

3 Axle

TruckMAV

2014-2018 7.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 8.0 5.0 7.0 8.5

2018-2023 6.75 4.25 4.25 4.25 7.75 4.5 6.75 8.0

2023-2028 6.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.25 4.5 6.5 7.752028 onward 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 4.25 6.0 7.25

Based on the above the traffic projections for each section of highway were carried out and

presented in Table 3.13a&b and details are presented in Appendix 3.3 a&b.



Diversion of Traffic to Railways

With a view to provide an alternative and a reliable transportation system to Jammu &

Kashmir, Govt. of India planned a 345 km. long Railway Line joining the Kashmir Valley

with the Indian Railways network. The Jammu-Udhampur-Katra-Quazigund-Baramulla

Railway line is the biggest project in the construction of a mountain railway since

independence. It passes through the young Himalayas, tectonic thrusts and faults.

The work on Jammu-Udhampur section ( 53 Km) has been completed and opened to

public by Hon’ble Prime Minister in Apr’05.

The section from Anantnag to Rajwansher (66 KM) was opened to the public by the

Hon’ble Prime Minister on 11/10/08.

The section from Rajwansher to Baramulla (35 KM) was inaugurated and dedicated

to the nation by the Hon’ble Chairperson of UPA Smt. Sonia Gandhi on 14.02.09.

The section from Quazigund to Anantnag (18 km) was opened to the public by the

Hon’ble Prime Minister on 28/10/09

The work is in various stages of progress in the balance length from Udhampur to Quazigund

For the ease of execution, the work has been sub-divided into the following three sections:

Section - 1 : Udhampur-Katra ( 25 Km)

Section - 2 : Katra-Qazigund (129KM)

Section - 3 : Qazigund –Baramulla (Km 119 )

The progress of work in these different sections of the new line is given as under:

Section - 1:- Udhampur- Katra ( 25 km)

Udhampur-Katra section is 25 km long and involves about 11 km of tunneling, 9 important/

major bridges, 29 minor bridges and 10 ROB/RUBs. The approx. cost of this stretch is Rs.

928 cr. The tallest bridge in this section is 85m high (Br. No. 20) and the longest tunnel is

3.15 km long. All the tunneling as well as bridge works have been completed.

Section – 2 :- Katra-Qazigund ( 148 km)

This section is the toughest section, full of tunnels and bridges/ viaducts, that have been




The work from Quazigund to Anantnag ( 18 km) has been completed and commissioned on

28/10/09 by Hon’ble Prime Minister.With this commissioning the entire 119 km stretch in the

valley has been made operational as a standalone system.

The entire line will be commissioned by year 2017-18.




The railways are used to carry the passenger traffic and freight which normally comprises of

non-perishable and bulky in nature. To estimate the divertible traffic, consultants hadcollected the commodity movement data from the Lower Munda Check Post. The data

collected from the check post is presented in Table 3.14 and 3.15.

Table 3.14: Distribution of Commodities – Export

Commodity

Weight (in Kg)

2 Axle

Truck

3Axle

Truck

MAV

( 4 Axle)

MAV

( 5 Axle)Almonds 4063430 570980 71785 0

Army Foods 251630 36350 14350 8000

Beverages 1587815 177935 232843 0

Chemical 2778265 497616 0 0

Construction Material 90213046 3350679 796068 8926

Empty Container/Bottles 2910158 112721 4720 1Empty Vehicles 0 0 0 0

Food Grain 1912256 178715 127340 0

Manufacturing 8127465 611422 28255 8024

Metal 2813036 288220 174123 8

Dry Fruited 10072472 520010 10845 0

Perishable Items 444529836 327324091 101823310 37608

Plastic Items 8183262 479494 0 0

Scrap 25716416 1044285 86670 0

Vegetable Oil 212160 0 0 0

Wood 8550760 1526925 72705 0

Others 69849125 19352523 2978215 9250

Total 681771132 356071966 106421229 47004

Table 3.15: Distribution of Commodities - Import




Commodity

Weight (in Kg)

2 Axle

Truck

3Axle

Truck

MAV

( 4 Axle)

MAV

( 5 Axle)Construction Material 130088693 79595073 37386904 32720521

Cotton 226299 110335 0 0

Empty Containers/Bottles 909814 804348 111800 10000

Empty Vehicles 0 0 0 0

Food Grain 377011 35100 0 0

Food Items 61475056 7733690 732949 0

Glass Items 984548 12236939 1483158 0

Jute 429464 22300 0 0

Machine Parts 843943 595004 320650 236225

Machine 3552696 917266 583610 656430

Manufacturing 36340363 22280371 4003567 2290187

Medicine 3772012 1386280 33500 0

Metals 122113630 37525270 9246321 10536900

Nonperishable Items 4333513 1511749 447256 0

Oil Rice/Palm/Menthol Etc. 36207111 5072849 574153 0

Paper 6773775 2739467 199434 0

Perishable Items 70503868 41607932 9347881 81000

Plastic Items 6380298 1202250 102061 0

Scrap 3000 38706 0 0

Seeds 870207 1093180 76795 30100

Tobacco 2478858 1441616 34650 0

Vegetable Oil 4412129 2410629 210144 45001

Wood 20249737 13057201 6050435 42223535

Others 852176882 178638920 45633744 7171030

Total 1978435919 841319408 254946699 112738443




Table 3.16: Projected Divertible Traffic to Railways

YearCars &

Taxis

Buses LGVTrucks

(2 Axle)

Truck

(3 Axle)

MAV Total PCUs

2018 929 88 62 392 106 36 1613 2942

2019 991 91 67 410 113 38 1710 3105

2020 1058 96 73 428 120 42 1817 3289

2021 1130 99 78 447 129 45 1928 3475

2022 1206 104 84 467 137 48 2046 3672

2023 1284 109 90 488 146 52 2169 3882

2024 1368 112 96 510 155 56 2297 4095

2025 1457 117 103 533 165 60 2435 4327

2026 1551 122 111 557 176 65 2582 4575

2027 1652 126 119 582 188 70 2737 4834

2028 1751 131 127 607 199 75 2890 5090

2029 1857 136 136 633 211 81 3054 5366

2030 1967 141 146 659 224 86 3223 5645

2031 2086 147 156 687 237 93 3406 5952

2032 2211 153 166 717 252 99 3598 6272

2033 2344 160 179 747 267 107 3804 6616

2034 2484 166 191 779 283 114 4017 6968

2035 2633 173 204 812 300 123 4245 7348

2036 2791 180 219 846 318 131 4485 7741

2037 2959 187 234 882 337 141 4740 8163

2038 3136 194 250 920 357 151 5008 8604

2039 3325 202 268 959 378 162 5294 9073




Diversion of Local TrafficDiversion of Traffic Destined towards

Chenani, Dogra and Kud area from Jammu

side and Btatote, Chanpa, Nashri from

Srinagar Side (Local traffic between Chenani

and Nashri) has been estimated based on the

Origin Destination survey carried out on the

project road. The percentage of divertible

traffic at both the location is presented in

Table 3.17.

Table 3.17: Divertible local traffic from

Project Road

Percentage

Diversion Km 73 km 130

Cars 1.70 7.26

Govt Bus 0.00 0.00

Private Bus 1.28 0.00

Minibuses 0.00 28.2

Car Goods 0.83 4.72

LGV 0.00 2.17


3 axle Truck 0.00 0.00

MAV 0.00 0.00

As traffic studies were carried out at the two ends of the Tunnel the traffic on the tunnel has

been estimated based on the maximum of the traffic at two locations after accounting for

diversions. The projection of local divertible traffic is presented in Table 3.18 a&b and

details are presented in Annexure 3.4.

Generated traffic

With the Completion of entire section of the project road from Jammu to Srinagar, the

journey would be more comfortable and safe which would attract the generated traffic on the


Table 3.18 a: Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 90.5



Traffic Forecast 3-18 Traffic Report

j

Year

Cars

&Taxis

Tempo

Traveller

Two

Wheelers

Three

Wheelers

Mini

Bus Buses

Car

Goods LGV

Trucks

(2 Axle)

Truck

(3 Axle) MAV

Cons

Machinery Tractors NMT Total PCUs

2017 74 334 127 6 0 4 4 0 6 0 0 0 14 0 571 549

2018 79 357 138 6 0 4 4 0 6 0 0 0 14 0 610 582

2019 84 381 150 6 0 4 4 0 7 0 0 0 15 0 653 622

2020 90 406 162 7 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 0 15 0 699 664

2021 96 434 176 7 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 0 16 0 748 709

2022 103 463 191 8 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 0 16 0 800 754

2023 110 493 206 8 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 0 16 0 852 798

2024 117 525 223 8 0 5 5 0 8 0 0 0 17 0 910 850

2025 124 559 241 9 0 6 6 0 8 0 0 0 18 0 973 9102026 132 596 260 10 0 6 6 0 8 0 0 0 18 0 1038 965

2027 141 634 281 10 0 6 6 0 9 0 0 0 19 0 1108 1027

2028 149 672 302 10 0 6 6 0 9 0 0 0 19 0 1175 1084

2029 158 712 325 11 0 6 6 0 10 0 0 0 20 0 1250 1150

2030 168 755 349 12 0 7 7 0 10 0 0 0 21 0 1331 1224

2031 178 800 375 12 0 7 7 0 11 0 0 0 22 0 1414 1297

2032 189 848 403 12 0 7 7 0 11 0 0 0 22 0 1501 1370

2033 200 899 434 13 0 8 8 0 12 0 0 0 22 0 1598 14552034 212 953 466 13 0 8 8 0 12 0 0 0 24 0 1698 1543

2035 225 1010 501 14 0 8 8 0 13 0 0 0 24 0 1805 1635

2036 238 1071 539 15 0 9 9 0 13 0 0 0 25 0 1921 1734

2037 253 1135 579 15 0 9 9 0 14 0 0 0 25 0 2041 1836

2038 267 1204 623 15 0 9 9 0 14 0 0 0 27 0 2170 1947

2039 284 1276 669 17 0 10 10 0 15 0 0 0 27 0 2311 2069

2040 301 1352 719 17 0 10 10 0 15 0 0 0 28 0 2455 2188

2041 318 1433 773 18 0 10 10 0 16 0 0 0 29 0 2610 2322

2042 338 1519 831 18 0 11 11 0 17 0 0 0 30 0 2778 2465

2043 358 1611 894 20 0 11 11 0 18 0 0 0 30 0 2956 2614

2044 379 1707 961 20 0 12 12 0 18 0 0 0 32 0 3144 2774


Table 3.18 b: Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 130



Traffic Forecast 3-19 Traffic Report

Year

Cars

&Taxis

Tempo

Traveller

Two

Wheelers

Three

Wheelers

Mini

Bus Buses

Car

Goods LGV

Trucks

(2 Axle)

Truck

(3 Axle) MAV

Cons

Machinery Tractors NMT Total PCUs

2017 259 429 112 11 38 2 18 6 18 0 0 0 22 0 916 954

2018 276 458 122 11 40 2 19 6 19 0 0 0 22 0 976 1012

2019 295 489 132 12 41 2 20 7 20 0 0 0 23 0 1042 1076

2020 315 522 143 13 43 2 20 7 21 0 0 0 24 0 1111 1146

2021 337 557 155 13 45 2 21 8 21 0 0 0 25 0 1185 1216

2022 360 595 168 14 47 2 22 8 22 0 0 0 25 0 1264 1292

2023 383 634 181 14 49 2 23 9 23 0 0 0 26 0 1345 1370

2024 408 675 196 16 51 2 24 9 24 0 0 0 26 0 1432 1453

2025 435 719 212 16 53 2 25 10 25 0 0 0 28 0 1526 15462026 463 765 229 17 55 2 26 10 26 0 0 0 28 0 1622 1637

2027 493 815 247 17 57 2 27 11 27 0 0 0 29 0 1726 1736

2028 523 864 266 17 59 2 28 12 28 0 0 0 30 0 1830 1834

2029 554 916 285 19 62 2 29 12 29 0 0 0 31 0 1940 1942

2030 587 971 307 19 64 2 30 13 31 0 0 0 32 0 2057 2054

2031 622 1029 330 20 67 2 32 14 32 0 0 0 33 0 2182 2172

2032 660 1091 355 21 69 2 33 15 33 0 0 0 33 0 2313 2294

2033 699 1156 381 22 72 3 34 17 35 0 0 0 35 0 2455 24352034 741 1225 410 22 75 3 36 18 36 0 0 0 36 0 2603 2573

2035 786 1299 441 24 78 3 37 19 38 0 0 0 36 0 2762 2723

2036 833 1377 474 25 81 3 38 20 39 0 0 0 38 0 2929 2881

2037 883 1460 509 26 84 3 40 22 41 0 0 0 39 0 3108 3050

2038 936 1547 547 27 88 3 42 23 43 0 0 0 40 0 3297 3227

2039 992 1640 588 28 91 3 43 25 44 0 0 0 42 0 3497 3415

2040 1051 1738 632 29 95 3 45 26 46 0 0 0 42 0 3708 3610

2041 1115 1843 680 31 99 3 47 29 48 0 0 0 44 0 3940 3830

2042 1182 1953 731 32 103 4 49 31 50 0 0 0 45 0 4181 4055

2043 1252 2070 786 33 107 4 51 33 53 0 0 0 46 0 4436 4292

2044 1327 2195 845 34 111 4 53 35 55 0 0 0 48 0 4708 4545


B id h b B lih H d El i j i b i d b JP i d i



Beside the above Baglihar Hydro Electric project is being constructed by JP industries at

Chanderkote (Ramban District). The potential of this project is 900mw and it will be

completed in two phases of 450mw each.

Based on the above developments the consultants had considered 5% as the generated traffic.

The Details of generated traffic is presented in Annexure 3.5.

3.4 Traffic Volume Projections

Based on the adopted growth rates, the traffic volume has been estimated from year 2014 to

2044 using compounded growth rates and presented in Annexure 3.6 and summary of projected traffic is presented in Table 3.19.

Table 3.19: Projected Traffic on Tunnel Section

Year Cars Buses CarGoods

Trucks Others TollExempted

TotalVehicles

PCUs TollableVehicles

TollablePCUs

2017 4524 49 354 425 401 2625 696 233 10 321

2018 3910 51 281 443 370 2352 637 216 11 327

2019 4173 53 293 462 399 2457 681 234 12 334

2020 4454 55 305 482 429 2568 727 252 13 340

2021 4756 58 319 502 463 2683 775 272 14 348

2022 5077 60 331 524 497 2804 828 294 15 354

2023 5407 62 344 545 533 2930 882 317 16 362

2024 5758 65 358 567 572 3062 939 341 17 369

2025 6133 67 372 589 613 3200 1000 368 19 376

2026 6532 70 387 613 658 3344 1065 396 20 3822027 6956 73 403 638 705 3494 1134 427 22 390

2028 7373 76 419 664 755 3642 1202 458 24 398

2029 7816 79 436 690 807 3797 1274 491 25 406

2030 8285 82 453 718 864 3959 1351 527 27 414

2031 8782 85 472 746 924 4127 1432 565 29 423

2032 9308 89 490 776 988 4302 1518 606 31 431

2033 9868 92 510 807 1058 4485 1609 650 33 440

2034 10459 96 530 840 1132 4676 1705 697 36 4482035 11086 100 552 873 1211 4875 1807 747 39 457

2036 11752 104 573 908 1296 5082 1916 802 41 466

2037 12457 108 596 944 1387 5298 2031 860 44 476

2038 13205 112 621 982 1484 5523 2153 922 48 485

2039 13996 11 64 1021 1 8 8 2282 989 1 49



ANNEXURES



ANNEXURE 2.1

TRAFFIC SURVEY FORMATS

Traffic Study

Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey

L ti D t S Sh t N



Car/Jeep LCV Truck Bus

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

:00

to

:15

:15

to

:30

:30

to

:45

:45

to

:00

Total

Toll Exempted Vehicles :

Government Vehicles (Police, VIP, Fire Brigade, Postal Vehicles etc.), Army Vehicles, Ambulence, Mortury Van

Conducted by :

O.K. Not O.K.

Direction: Shift: Weather: Checked By:

Location: Date: Surveyor: Sheet No:

2 wheelers

Small

Auto Big Auto MinibusTimeInterval

Car/Jeep/Van

Private Taxi

Tempo

Traveller LCV

2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axleBus (Govt) Bus (Pvt)

School

Bus

Car

Goods

Toll exempted vehicles

Cycle

Cycle

Rick

Animal/

Cart

Hand

Cart

7-axle and

above

Construction/

Machinnery Tractor

Tractor

Trailer

NAME OF SECTIONS : LOCATION: ________________________ SHEET NO. SHIFT

DIRECTION FROM TO DATE WEATHER

ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY FOR GOODS VEHICLES

Client Name



DIRECTION : FROM: _______________________________ TO: ________________________ DATE WEATHER

Origin Zone

Place Zone

code

Place Zone

Code

1

2

3

4

5

L oad in To nn es Dist ri ct of Veh ic le

Registration

(Regsitered RTA

National Permit

(Y/N)

Destination Zone Tr ip Pur pose Trip Frequency Tr ip Length (Km) Return Within 24

Hours (Yes/No)

Sr.

No.

Time of

Interview

Veh ic le Type Co mmod it y T yp e

6

7

8

9

10

11

Vehicle Type Trip Purpose Trip Frequency Name of the Enumerator :1-Light Com. Vehicle 1-Loading 4-Maintenance 1-Daily

2-Two Axle Trucks 2-Unloading 5-Home Based 2-Weekly Name of the Supervisor :3-Three Axle Trucks 3-Through 6- Others 3-Monthly4-Multi-Axle Vehicle

NAME OF SECTIONS :LOCATION: ________________________ SHEET NO. SHIFT

DIRECTION : FROM: _______________________________ TO: ________________________ DATE WEATHER

District of Registration Type of Registraion National Permit Tri p Purpose Tri p Frequency Tri p Length (Km) R et urn Wit h in 24

ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY FOR PASSENGER VEHICLESClient Name

Sr No Time of Vehi cl e Type Occupancy



Origin Zone

Place Zone

code

Place Zone

code

1

2

3

4

5

District of Registration

(Regsitered RTA Address)

Type of Registraion

(Personal/Commerc

ial) (P/C)

National Permit

(Y/N) Destination Zone

Tri p Purpose Tri p Frequency Tri p Length (Km) R et urn Wit h in 24

Hours (Yes/No)

Sr. No. Time of

Interview

Vehi cl e Type Occupancy

6

7

8

9

10

11

Vehicle Type Trip Purpose Trip Frequency1- Car/Jeep/Van 4- Mini Bus 1-Work 4-Home 1-Daily Name of Surveyor :

2- Bus Govt 5- Others 2-Education 5-Others 2-Weekly

3- Bus Pvt 3-Business 3-Monthly Name of Supervisor :

Location:………………………..

Direction:………………………… Weather :…………………………

Date :……………………………..

AXLE LOAD SURVEY



8th

Axle 9th

Axle4th

Axle 5th

Axle 6th

Axle 7th

AxleDistrict Village District

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 3

rd Axle

S.N0Vehicle

Type

Origin Destination Commodity

TypeConfiguration

Trip

Frequen

cy

Axle Load

Village



ANNEXURE 2.2

ADT

Traffic Volume Count Km 90.5 of NH 1A




UP 859 787 146 64 3 1 32 11 112 0 122 83 85 949 253 72 0 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 65 64 40 67 3825

DOWN 518 7 50 1 39 27 0 0 37 3 1 12 1 1 60 42 50 8 78 1 89 82 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 47 37 54 3145

UP 890 777 100 47 5 3 17 14 133 5 175 20 77 1013 230 83 0 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 43 5 51 16 3716

DOWN 686 8 71 1 19 42 0 0 23 29 1 01 3 1 43 41 94 8 74 2 44 69 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 21 54 1 26 3446

UP 775 742 148 60 0 4 11 16 1 07 1 182 29 107 983 233 48 0 0 10 5 0 0 0 0 51 3 147 73 3735

DOWN 655 7 92 1 11 35 0 2 16 36 93 1 1 17 46 97 9 31 2 20 63 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 21 39 49 22 3350

UP 739 8 23 115 80 1 0 13 15 101 2 173 30 81 906 227 80 0 2 10 1 0 0 0 0 38 39 43 26 3545

DOWN 568 6 85 1 30 38 1 0 15 27 99 2 1 43 14 68 8 45 2 20 74 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 26 11 37 45 3053

UP 713 760 100 42 1 0 9 9 112 0 156 20 104 759 181 67 0 5 11 5 0 0 0 0 34 11 59 36 3194

DOWN 553 7 15 88 37 0 0 11 17 1 10 0 1 23 36 87 7 96 2 00 47 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 30 34 42 34 2967

UP 869 789 94 53 1 0 15 11 100 0 114 22 110 826 180 66 0 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 46 23 27 35 3391

DOWN 730 735 83 39 1 2 12 24 89 0 146 18 93 866 172 40 0 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 29 11 48 31 3177

UP 660 777 102 40 0 1 12 11 1 03 0 176 23 116 967 223 51 0 2 12 5 0 0 0 1 19 16 115 40 3472

DOWN 600 755 95 25 5 3 8 20 101 1 128 12 81 771 174 73 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 27 7 47 9 2946

UP 5505 5455 805 386 11 9 109 87 768 8 1098 227 680 6403 1527 467 0 21 55 23 1 0 0 1 296 161 482 293

DOWN 4310 5303 765 243 7 7 122 156 705 8 960 209 570 5961 1419 448 0 20 4 4 10 0 0 0 168 203 261 221

9815 10758 1570 629 18 16 231 243 1473 16 2058 436 1250 12364 2946 915 0 41 59 27 11 0 0 1 464 364 743 514

1402 1537 224 90 3 2 33 35 210 2 294 62 179 1766 421 131 0 6 8 4 2 0 0 0 66 52 106 73 6708

15.4.2013 Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

LCV 6

tyre

1 2. 4. 20 13 Frida y

13.4.2013 Saturday

14.4.2013 Sunday

Total

9 .4 .2 01 3 Tue sd ay

10.4.2013 Wednesday

11.4.2013 Thursday

Tractor

TrailerCycle

Cycle

Rick

Animal/C

art

Hand

Cart

Toll exempted vehicles2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axle

7-axle

and

above

Construct

ion/

Machinn

TractorMinibusBus

(Govt)Bus (Pvt)

School

Bus

Car

GoodsLCV

DATE DAY MODE

Car/Jeep/

Van

Private

TaxiTempoTr

aveller

2

wheelers

Small

AutoBig Auto

Traffic Volume Count Km 130 of NH 1A




UP 640 605 157 39 11 3 52 24 86 0 132 17 85 865 235 76 0 7 4 5 0 0 0 0 53 87 62 80 3325

DOWN 453 6 46 1 78 38 2 0 55 15 87 0 1 61 15 1 00 8 27 2 09 90 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 27 71 26 54 3060

UP 713 633 142 38 6 2 41 6 91 4 180 10 86 963 245 72 0 28 4 2 1 0 0 0 63 72 34 30 3466

DOWN 541 686 174 39 2 1 55 10 103 3 130 18 84 890 230 84 0 46 0 2 1 0 0 0 45 87 35 40 3306

UP 642 611 135 37 0 0 51 10 91 0 1 41 21 92 913 224 62 0 39 14 3 1 0 0 0 50 117 86 75 3415

DOWN 552 6 71 1 45 32 0 0 46 11 91 0 1 39 19 91 898 2 39 64 0 47 1 3 0 0 0 0 54 88 18 44 3253

UP 577 685 135 52 5 0 51 5 1 06 2 1 54 16 112 892 237 81 0 52 20 3 2 0 0 0 39 89 52 42 3409

DOWN 499 6 08 1 25 42 0 1 48 6 89 2 1 47 26 50 848 2 32 83 0 54 4 1 1 0 0 0 26 96 27 45 3060

UP 523 5 73 141 38 0 2 44 10 72 0 137 10 71 671 164 66 0 61 23 7 1 0 0 0 37 78 44 40 2813

DOWN 440 5 34 1 25 35 0 1 52 11 77 0 1 20 17 73 836 2 03 44 0 53 3 2 1 0 0 0 25 75 19 25 2771

UP 736 623 134 36 4 3 49 10 78 0 89 19 86 805 193 57 0 46 1 2 0 0 0 0 40 54 34 42 3141

DOWN 525 6 36 1 28 26 3 3 43 6 76 0 1 24 22 73 847 1 54 43 0 54 0 2 0 0 0 0 45 92 51 30 2983

UP 674 736 158 54 2 6 50 9 93 0 158 17 84 820 212 49 0 48 17 3 1 0 0 0 34 78 66 41 3410

DOWN 466 564 132 44 1 3 41 12 84 1 128 19 82 934 257 88 0 36 1 3 1 0 0 0 30 107 39 22 3095

UP 4505 4466 1002 294 28 16 338 74 617 6 991 110 616 5929 1510 463 0 281 83 25 6 0 0 0 316 575 378 350

DOWN 3476 4345 1007 256 8 9 340 71 607 6 949 136 553 6080 1524 496 0 292 9 17 4 0 0 0 252 616 215 260

7981 8811 2009 550 36 25 678 145 1224 12 1940 246 1169 12009 3034 959 0 573 92 42 10 0 0 0 568 1191 593 610

1140 1259 287 79 5 4 97 21 175 2 277 35 167 1716 433 137 0 82 13 6 1 0 0 0 81 170 85 87 6359

15.4.2013 Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

1 2. 4. 20 13 Frida y

13.4.2013 Saturday

1 4. 4. 20 13 Sun da y

Big AutoCar

GoodsLCV

DATE DAY MODE

Car/Jeep/

Van

Private

TaxiTempoTr

aveller

2

wheelers

Toll exempted vehicles2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axle

7-axle

and

above

Construct

ion/

Machinn

TractorSmall

Auto

Cycle

Rick

Animal/C

art

Hand

CartMinibus

Bus

(Govt)Bus (Pvt)

School

Bus

11.4.2013

LCV 6

tyreTotal

9 .4 .2 01 3 Tue sd ay

10.4.2013 Wednesday

Thursday

Tractor

TrailerCycle



ANNEXURE 2.3

PETROL AND DIESEL

DATA

Petrol Pump Data



Month Diesel(Kl) Petrol(kl)

April 635426 97332

May 789159 109156

June 923732 168252

July 1063655 139993

August 830109 114735

September 731986 96027

October 845442 97748

November 682311 111450

2010 to 2013

Petrol Pump Data

Location - Km 66 & km101



ANNEXURE 2.4

AADT


Toll exempted vehicles

TotalTractorTractor

TrailerCycle

Cycle

Rick

Animal/C

art

Hand

Cart

LCV 6

tyre

2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axle

7-axle

and

above

Construct

ion/

Machinn

MinibusBus

(Govt)Bus (Pvt)

School

Bus

Car

GoodsLCV

Traffic Volume Count Km 90.5 of NH 1A

DATE DAY MODE

Car/Jeep/

Van

Private

TaxiTempoTr

aveller

2

wheelers

Small

AutoBig Auto



UP 859 787 146 64 3 1 32 11 112 0 122 83 85 949 253 72 0 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 65 64 40 67 3825

DOWN 518 7 50 1 39 27 0 0 37 3 1 12 1 1 60 42 50 8 78 1 89 82 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 47 37 54 3145

UP 890 777 100 47 5 3 17 14 133 5 175 20 77 1013 230 83 0 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 43 5 51 16 3716

DOWN 686 8 71 1 19 42 0 0 23 29 1 01 3 1 43 41 94 8 74 2 44 69 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 21 54 1 26 3446

UP 775 742 148 60 0 4 11 16 1 07 1 182 29 107 983 233 48 0 0 10 5 0 0 0 0 51 3 147 73 3735

DOWN 655 7 92 1 11 35 0 2 16 36 93 1 1 17 46 97 9 31 2 20 63 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 21 39 49 22 3350

UP 739 8 23 115 80 1 0 13 15 101 2 173 30 81 906 227 80 0 2 10 1 0 0 0 0 38 39 43 26 3545

DOWN 568 6 85 1 30 38 1 0 15 27 99 2 1 43 14 68 8 45 2 20 74 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 26 11 37 45 3053

UP 713 760 100 42 1 0 9 9 112 0 156 20 104 759 181 67 0 5 11 5 0 0 0 0 34 11 59 36 3194

DOWN 553 7 15 88 37 0 0 11 17 1 10 0 1 23 36 87 7 96 2 00 47 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 30 34 42 34 2967

UP 869 789 94 53 1 0 15 11 100 0 114 22 110 826 180 66 0 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 46 23 27 35 3391

DOWN 730 735 83 39 1 2 12 24 89 0 146 18 93 866 172 40 0 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 29 11 48 31 3177

UP 660 777 102 40 0 1 12 11 1 03 0 176 23 116 967 223 51 0 2 12 5 0 0 0 1 19 16 115 40 3472

DOWN 600 755 95 25 5 3 8 20 101 1 128 12 81 771 174 73 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 27 7 47 9 2946

UP 5505 5455 805 386 11 9 109 87 768 8 1098 227 680 6403 1527 467 0 21 55 23 1 0 0 1 296 161 482 293

DOWN 4310 5303 765 243 7 7 122 156 705 8 960 209 570 5961 1419 448 0 20 4 4 10 0 0 0 168 203 261 221

9815 10758 1570 629 18 16 231 243 1473 16 2058 436 1250 12364 2946 915 0 41 59 27 11 0 0 1 464 364 743 514

1402 1537 224 90 3 2 33 35 210 2 294 62 179 1766 421 131 0 6 8 4 2 0 0 0 66 52 106 73 6708

1.138 1.138 1.138 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.167 1.167 1.167 1 .000 1.167 1 .167 1.167 1 .167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 .000 1.000 1 .000 1.000 1.000 1 .000

1595 1749 255 90 3 2 39 41 245 2 343 72 209 2062 491 153 0 7 8 4 2 0 0 0 66 52 106 73 7669

ADT

AADT FACTOR

AADT

1 4. 4. 20 13 Sun da y

15.4.2013 Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

11.4.2013 Thursday

1 2. 4. 20 13 Frida y

13.4.2013 Saturday

9 .4 .2 01 3 Tue sd ay

10.4.2013 Wednesday


UP 640 605 157 39 11 3 52 24 86 0 1 32 17 85 865 235 76 0 7 4 5 0 0 0 0 53 87 62 80 3325

DAY

Traffic Volume Count Km 130 of NH 1A

Total

MODE

Bus (Pvt)School

Bus

Small

AutoBig Auto Minibus

Bus

(Govt)

Car/Jeep

/Van

Private

TaxiTempoTr

aveller

Animal/C

art

Hand

Cart

Car

GoodsLCV

Cycle

Rick

2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axle

7-axle

and

above

LCV 6

tyre

2

wheelers

Toll exempted vehiclesConstruc

tion/

Machinn

TractorTractor

TrailerCycle

DATE



UP 640 605 157 39 11 3 52 24 86 0 1 32 17 85 865 235 76 0 7 4 5 0 0 0 0 53 87 62 80 3325

DOWN 453 6 46 1 78 38 2 0 55 15 87 0 1 61 15 1 00 8 27 2 09 90 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 27 71 26 54 3060

UP 713 633 142 38 6 2 41 6 91 4 180 10 86 963 245 72 0 28 4 2 1 0 0 0 63 72 34 30 3466

DOWN 541 686 174 39 2 1 55 10 103 3 130 18 84 890 230 84 0 46 0 2 1 0 0 0 45 87 35 40 3306

UP 642 6 11 1 35 37 0 0 51 10 91 0 1 41 21 92 9 13 2 24 62 0 39 14 3 1 0 0 0 50 1 17 86 75 3415

DOWN 552 6 71 1 45 32 0 0 46 11 91 0 1 39 19 91 8 98 2 39 64 0 47 1 3 0 0 0 0 54 88 18 44 3253

UP 577 6 85 1 35 52 5 0 51 5 1 06 2 1 54 16 1 12 8 92 2 37 81 0 52 20 3 2 0 0 0 39 89 52 42 3409

DOWN 499 6 08 1 25 42 0 1 48 6 89 2 1 47 26 50 8 48 232 83 0 54 4 1 1 0 0 0 26 96 27 45 3060

UP 523 573 141 38 0 2 44 10 72 0 1 37 10 71 671 164 66 0 61 23 7 1 0 0 0 37 78 44 40 2813

DOWN 440 5 34 1 25 35 0 1 52 11 77 0 1 20 17 73 8 36 2 03 44 0 53 3 2 1 0 0 0 25 75 19 25 2771

UP 736 623 134 36 4 3 49 10 78 0 89 19 86 805 193 57 0 46 1 2 0 0 0 0 40 54 34 42 3141

DOWN 525 6 36 1 28 26 3 3 43 6 76 0 1 24 22 73 8 47 154 43 0 54 0 2 0 0 0 0 45 92 51 30 2983

UP 674 736 158 54 2 6 50 9 93 0 1 58 17 84 820 212 49 0 48 17 3 1 0 0 0 34 78 66 41 3410

DOWN 466 564 132 44 1 3 41 12 84 1 128 19 82 934 257 88 0 36 1 3 1 0 0 0 30 107 39 22 3095

UP 4505 4466 1002 294 28 16 338 74 617 6 991 110 616 5929 1510 463 0 281 83 25 6 0 0 0 316 575 378 350

DOWN 3476 4345 1007 256 8 9 340 71 607 6 949 136 553 6080 1524 496 0 292 9 17 4 0 0 0 252 616 215 260

7981 8811 2009 550 36 25 678 145 1224 12 1940 246 1169 12009 3034 959 0 573 92 42 10 0 0 0 568 1191 593 610

1140 1259 287 79 5 4 97 21 175 2 277 35 167 1716 433 137 0 82 13 6 1 0 0 0 81 170 85 87 6359

1.138 1.138 1.138 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.000 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.167 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

1297 1433 327 79 5 4 113 25 204 2 323 41 195 2003 506 160 0 96 13 6 1 0 0 0 81 170 85 87 7256

1 4. 4. 20 13 S un da y

GRAND TOTAL

Saturday

9 .4 .2 01 3 Tue sd ay

10.4.2013

ADT

TOTAL

1 5. 4. 20 13 M on da y

11.4.2013 Thursday

1 2. 4. 20 13 Fri da y

13.4.2013

Wednesday

AADT FACTOR

AADT



ANNEXURE 2.5

AXLE LOAD DATA

Mode Chenani to Udhampur Udhampur to Chenani

Annexure 2.5



p p

LGV (4 Tyre) 0.17 0.25LGV (6 Tyre) 0.3 0.57

2 axle Truck 0.64 3.15


MAV 0.19 5.27

L

AXLE LOAD SURVEY

D t 15 4 2013



Locat CH-73

Direction:……… chenani to udhampur Weather :…………………………

2 1 1+1 1300 1370 0.003

4 1 1+1 2120 4620 0.251

7 1 1+1 1620 2130 0.014

8 1 1+1 1270 1630 0.005

9 1 1+1 1240 1340 0.003

28 1 1+1 3520 7240 1.529

29 1 1+1 1280 1390 0.002

36 1 1+1 2990 4270 0.117

40 1 1+1 2350 3290 0.042

58 1 1+1 2190 2280 0.018

71 1 1+1 4220 5680 0.402

78 1 1+1 2970 3440 0.073

84 1 1+1 2170 2240 0.017

85 1 1+1 1860 2250 0.012

91 1 1+1 4340 5280 0.362

106 1 1+1 4280 7140 0.763

113 1 1+1 4100 6800 0.631

133 1 1+1 1300 1340 0.002

135 1 1+1 1960 2220 0.013

136 1 1+1 1920 4070 0.069

139 1 1+1 2070 4860 0.136

143 1 1+1 2080 1950 0.013

144 1 1+1 2950 6340 0.404

147 1 1+1 1810 3430 0.037

149 1 1+1 1590 1480 0.004

158 1 1+1 1340 1220 0.002

9th

Axle VDF3rd

Axle 4th

Axle 5th

Axle 6th

Axle 7th

Axle 8th

Axle1st Axle 2

nd Axle

Date 15.4.2013

S.No Vehicle Type ConfigurationAxle Load

.187 1 1+1 1950 1740 0.010

197 1 1+1 1660 1560 0.005

208 1 1+1 3360 5680 0.302

209 1 1+1 1540 2280 0.009

18 1 1+2 3220 7100 0.630

19 1 1+2 4340 7280 0.821

96 1 1+2 1680 2160 0.009

97 1 1+2 2240 3080 0.034

142 1 1+2 2100 1620 0.012

1 2 1+2 4160 4390 0.242

3 2 1+2 3820 4160 0.180

5 2 1+2 3130 3870 0.101

6 2 1+2 4680 5660 0.484

10 2 1+2 3960 3940 0.184

11 2 1+2 3820 3990 0.169

12 2 1+2 3700 3940 0 153

9th

Axle VDF3rd

Axle 4th

Axle 5th

Axle 6th

Axle 7th

Axle 8th

Axle1st Axle 2

nd Axle


35 2 1+2 3280 4940 0.195

37 2 1+2 3280 4080 0 123



37 2 1+2 3280 4080 0.123

38 2 1+2 3520 4640 0.185

39 2 1+2 2860 3480 0.068

41 2 1+2 2300 3280 0.041

42 2 1+2 5920 5290 0.824

43 2 1+2 3940 5740 0.372

44 2 1+2 3480 4050 0.138

45 2 1+2 3960 3280 0.156

46 2 1+2 5920 6480 1.045

47 2 1+2 2960 8480 1.207

48 2 1+2 3480 5280 0.253

49 2 1+2 3560 5660 0.316

50 2 1+2 3420 6680 0.521

52 2 1+2 3280 3880 0.112

53 2 1+2 3920 4260 0.199

54 2 1+2 3770 3520 0.141

55 2 1+2 3480 4160 0.145

56 2 1+2 2280 6680 0.463

57 2 1+2 3280 3480 0.094

59 2 1+2 2920 9220 1.668

60 2 1+2 3940 4240 0.200

61 2 1+2 4320 4520 0.278

62 2 1+2 4280 4270 0.252

63 2 1+2 4080 3960 0.202

64 2 1+2 3360 5740 0.312

65 2 1+2 3430 4480 0.164

66 2 1+2 3280 3860 0.111

67 2 1+2 3370 5560 0.284

68 2 1+2 2480 3480 0.053

69 2 1+2 3080 3240 0.072

70 2 1+2 3480 3980 0.134

72 2 1+2 3480 4080 0.140

73 2 1+2 4860 9880 2.443

.75 2 1+2 3680 3080 0.117

76 2 1+2 3920 4200 0.195

77 2 1+2 3130 4080 0.113

79 2 1+2 3560 3880 0.136

80 2 1+2 3680 6680 0.546

81 2 1+2 3040 3690 0.087

82 2 1+2 4410 3840 0.248

83 2 1+2 3860 4040 0.177

86 2 1+2 3970 5250 0.302

87 2 1+2 2920 5370 0.226

89 2 1+2 4120 2820 0.166

90 2 1+2 3280 4650 0.166

92 2 1+2 4880 16320 16.299

93 2 1+2 2410 2880 0.033

94 2 1+2 2070 3880 0.061

95 2 1+2 2280 3670 0 055

9th

Axle VDF3rd

Axle 4th

Axle 5th

Axle 6th

Axle 7th

Axle 8th

Axle1st Axle 2

nd Axle


119 2 1+2 3920 12340 5.354

120 2 1+2 3410 3600 0 109



120 2 1+2 3410 3600 0.109

121 2 1+2 4280 4080 0.239

122 2 1+2 4460 4200 0.279

123 2 1+2 1340 1340 0.002

125 2 1+2 3920 4060 0.186

126 2 1+2 4060 3940 0.198

127 2 1+2 3940 3520 0.162

128 2 1+2 3680 3520 0.131

129 2 1+2 3880 3680 0.161

130 2 1+2 4250 3660 0.212

131 2 1+2 4320 3860 0.234

134 2 1+2 3940 3900 0.179

138 2 1+2 3900 4080 0.184

140 2 1+2 6160 7600 1.511

141 2 1+2 3280 3680 0.102

145 2 1+2 5680 12140 5.448

146 2 1+2 4480 13340 7.355

148 2 1+2 3360 3440 0.099

150 2 1+2 3900 3960 0.177

151 2 1+2 3280 3680 0.102

152 2 1+2 4200 6770 0.638

153 2 1+2 3570 3360 0.114

154 2 1+2 4220 9570 2.059

155 2 1+2 3620 4020 0.149

156 2 1+2 3620 3820 0.139

157 2 1+2 3720 3960 0.156

160 2 1+2 3280 3480 0.094

162 2 1+2 3880 3780 0.165

163 2 1+2 3880 3840 0.168

165 2 1+2 3960 8120 1.110

166 2 1+2 3370 3680 0.109

167 2 1+2 3680 4080 0.159

169 2 1+2 3480 3960 0.133

.171 2 1+2 3480 3840 0.126

172 2 1+2 3480 3840 0.126

173 2 1+2 3680 4060 0.158

174 2 1+2 4060 3680 0.185

176 2 1+2 4030 5420 0.334

177 2 1+2 2360 3620 0.055

178 2 1+2 3660 3560 0.131

179 2 1+2 3420 3580 0.109

180 2 1+2 4580 7760 1.050

181 2 1+2 3460 4020 0.134

182 2 1+2 3480 3940 0.132

183 2 1+2 4080 3880 0.197

184 2 1+2 3280 3380 0.090

185 2 1+2 3140 3080 0.072

186 2 1+2 3660 3620 0.133

189 2 1+2 3340 3220 0 090

9th

Axle VDF3rd

Axle 4th

Axle 5th

Axle 6th

Axle 7th

Axle 8th

Axle1st Axle 2

nd Axle


214 2 1+2 3740 3520 0.138

222 2 1+2 2700 2950 0.045



223 2 1+2 2710 2280 0.035

234 2 1+2 3280 8970 1.521

235 2 1+2 3960 6880 0.635

241 2 1+2 4580 10680 3.166

250 2 1+2 3280 5880 0.331

254 2 1+2 2880 7990 0.955

256 2 1+2 4710 9480 2.081

257 2 1+2 3540 4520 0.177

261 2 1+2 3480 3040 0.097

262 2 1+2 4740 11160 3.765

263 2 1+2 4330 10140 2.570

264 2 1+2 3100 3840 0.098

267 2 1+2 4150 6270 0.505

269 2 1+2 3450 2840 0.089

88 3 1+2+2 4270 3480 3850 0.233

108 3 1+2+2 4800 3920 3880 0.354

124 3 1+2+2 2800 3400 3360 0.074

132 3 1+2+2 4320 3960 3960 0.262

137 3 1+2+2 3720 3360 3480 0.145

159 3 1+2+2 4250 3280 2880 0.201

164 3 1+2+2 3690 3960 4160 0.184

168 3 1+2+2 4410 3680 3740 0.260

175 3 1+2+2 3560 3280 3230 0.120

188 3 1+2+2 4540 5940 7080 0.796

207 3 1+2+2 3640 3520 3580 0.143

210 3 1+2+2 3480 3480 3440 0.123

216 3 1+2+2 3570 3370 3170 0.122

217 3 1+2+2 2780 2280 2880 0.046

218 3 1+2+2 2860 3110 2160 0.051

219 3 1+2+2 3680 2880 2780 0.117

220 3 1+2+2 3480 290 2740 0.079

221 3 1+2+2 3140 2280 2380 0.061

224 3 1+2+2 2690 2360 2380 0.038

225 3 1+2+2 3880 3740 4080 0.194

229 3 1+2+2 3940 3680 2560 0.157

230 3 1+2+2 3340 5480 4160 0.238

231 3 1+2+2 3080 3140 3370 0.083

232 3 1+2+2 3340 3880 3140 0.114

233 3 1+2+2 4260 4210 3740 0.253

236 3 1+2+2 4380 3260 3380 0.233

237 3 1+2+2 3560 4780 3080 0.161

238 3 1+2+2 3960 4320 2990 0.186

239 3 1+2+2 3480 4120 3340 0.139

242 3 1+2+2 4580 3680 3480 0.284

243 3 1+2+2 3760 3480 3680 0.158

244 3 1+2+2 3820 3260 2960 0.142

248 3 1+2+2 3820 3350 3670 0.161

251 3 1+2+2 3100 3340 3300 0.087

252 3 1+2+2 3480 3780 3500 0.133

253 3 1+2+2 4080 3750 2820 0.183

255 3 1+2+2 4030 3480 3040 0.175

258 3 1+2+2 3770 4540 4340 0 230

Location:CH-73

AXLE LOAD SURVEY

Date 15 4 2013



Location:CH-73

Direction:Udhampur To Chenani Weather :…………………………

7 1 1+1 630 780 0.000

10 1 1+1 1770 4860 0.299

11 1 1+1 890 6490 0.935

12 1 1+1 4080 4500 0.362

14 1 1+1 2650 5080 0.377

15 1 1+1 4650 8760 3.350

22 1 1+1 910 3780 0.108

24 1 1+1 1510 3440 0.077

25 1 1+1 1460 3340 0.068

29 1 1+1 1530 3860 0.120

30 1 1+1 960 3080 0.048

34 1 1+1 1290 1690 0.006

36 1 1+1 1120 2310 0.016

38 1 1+1 1460 3260 0.062

48 1 1+1 1360 4190 0.164

49 1 1+1 1380 3220 0.059

60 1 1+1 1580 4490 0.217

65 1 1+1 1670 3340 0.070

72 1 1+1 760 1330 0.002

79 1 1+1 1160 3280 0.062

97 1 1+1 1280 2680 0.029

104 1 1+1 1170 1460 0.003

107 1 1+1 1190 3810 0.112

137 1 1+1 1140 3600 0.089

Date 15.4.2013

S.NoVehicle

TypeConfiguration

Axle Load

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 9

th Axle VDF3

rd Axle 4

th Axle 5

th Axle 6

th Axle 7

th Axle 8

th Axle

+ .155 1 1+1 520 1680 0.004

182 1 1+1 820 2970 0.041

21 1 1+2 1690 1840 0.010

33 1 1+2 3240 5640 0.591

35 1 1+2 4330 7700 2.038

44 1 1+2 1720 2080 0.014

106 1 1+2 2720 6240 0.828

130 1 1+2 2660 4130 0.180

153 1 1+2 2140 4940 0.325

2 2 1+2 5620 7220 1.139

3 2 1+2 3960 5620 0.355

5 2 1+2 4430 6020 0.499

6 2 1+2 5170 11500 4.321

8 2 1+2 6260 12800 6.864

13 2 1+2 6450 5750 1 159

S.NoVehicle

TypeConfiguration

Axle Load

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 9

th Axle VDF3

rd Axle 4

th Axle 5

th Axle 6

th Axle 7

th Axle 8

th Axle

51 2 1+2 3080 10380 2.666

52 2 1+2 5660 8860 1.931



54 2 1+2 4880 6510 0.704

56 2 1+2 4020 10240 2.618

57 2 1+2 4050 14800 10.963

58 2 1+2 4310 12240 5.244

59 2 1+2 6870 14480 11.089

61 2 1+2 3880 10480 2.840

64 2 1+2 4480 7380 0.881

66 2 1+2 5520 10470 3.200

67 2 1+2 5070 13050 6.890

68 2 1+2 3610 10040 2.381

69 2 1+2 5620 8220 1.555

71 2 1+2 5740 11290 4.237

73 2 1+2 4140 11920 4.708

75 2 1+2 5520 9490 2.319

76 2 1+2 4940 8940 1.755

77 2 1+2 5860 16820 18.674

80 2 1+2 5520 7280 1.123

83 2 1+2 5400 11520 4.420

84 2 1+2 3280 11280 3.713

85 2 1+2 4620 10280 2.759

86 2 1+2 5280 10670 3.333

88 2 1+2 4140 5500 0.361

89 2 1+2 4850 12740 6.233

90 2 1+2 3830 8020 1.047

91 2 1+2 3280 7740 0.870

92 2 1+2 3080 13680 7.947

94 2 1+2 5300 10650 3.317

96 2 1+2 4580 7300 0.872

98 2 1+2 3680 9700 2.093

100 2 1+2 4740 8540 1.466

102 2 1+2 4820 12380 .

103 2 1+2 5140 9560 2.252

105 2 1+2 4360 9020 1.683

108 2 1+2 4740 9480 2.088

109 2 1+2 4160 8560 1.369

110 2 1+2 4880 7780 1.125

111 2 1+2 4330 8760 1.513

112 2 1+2 3560 10770 3.119

113 2 1+2 3960 9750 2.168

115 2 1+2 4480 6880 0.718

116 2 1+2 4420 8360 1.303

117 2 1+2 3280 7880 0.931

118 2 1+2 4560 8860 1.618

119 2 1+2 3560 4650 0.190

120 2 1+2 4650 7280 0.880

121 2 1+2 3880 11280 3 771

S.NoVehicle

TypeConfiguration

Axle Load

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 9

th Axle VDF3

rd Axle 4

th Axle 5

th Axle 6

th Axle 7

th Axle 8

th Axle

142 2 1+2 4190 7600 0.915

143 2 1+2 4890 10040 2.593



144 2 1+2 2810 9370 1.771

145 2 1+2 4270 10270 2.684

146 2 1+2 4120 7950 1.053

147 2 1+2 3460 9340 1.792

148 2 1+2 3560 9420 1.861

149 2 1+2 4590 9620 2.166

152 2 1+2 4790 6860 0.777

154 2 1+2 3740 7880 0.973

156 2 1+2 3770 7940 1.003

159 2 1+2 3340 3940 0.120

160 2 1+2 3480 6480 0.475

161 2 1+2 3100 6880 0.554

165 2 1+2 5080 12080 5.154

166 2 1+2 4920 12890 6.535

169 2 1+2 4520 8820 1.585

171 2 1+2 3730 5280 0.277

172 2 1+2 3480 10340 2.656

173 2 1+2 3960 8940 1.570

174 2 1+2 3740 5480 0.307

175 2 1+2 3920 6520 0.532

176 2 1+2 4080 8680 1.426

177 2 1+2 3880 9040 1.626

178 2 1+2 4480 8540 1.412

179 2 1+2 4240 7480 0.876

180 2 1+2 4740 6280 0.617

181 2 1+2 3970 8020 1.064

183 2 1+2 5320 6970 0.954

184 2 1+2 6250 13790 8.961

185 2 1+2 3940 7140 0.713

186 2 1+2 4080 12550 5.741

+ .

188 2 1+2 5420 10860 3.592

189 2 1+2 3280 6540 0.474

190 2 1+2 4170 10960 3.414

191 2 1+2 4300 10960 3.435

192 2 1+2 4480 13210 7.081

193 2 1+2 6260 12290 5.955

195 2 1+2 5680 9920 2.733

196 2 1+2 4090 12940 6.471

198 2 1+2 5340 9680 2.409

199 2 1+2 4950 9420 2.092

200 2 1+2 5480 9960 2.695

201 2 1+2 4680 10360 2.851

203 2 1+2 5550 10290 3.029

205 2 1+2 3560 9740 2.115

207 2 1 2 5480 7680 1 260

S.NoVehicle

TypeConfiguration

Axle Load

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 9

th Axle VDF3

rd Axle 4

th Axle 5

th Axle 6

th Axle 7

th Axle 8

th Axle

240 2 1+2 3340 6340 0.430

247 2 1+2 7280 9960 3.700



249 2 1+2 4300 9410 1.949

250 2 1+2 3950 11330 3.845

251 2 1+2 4750 9020 1.761

253 2 1+2 4240 8200 1.190

255 2 1+2 5280 11770 4.738

256 2 1+2 4870 5680 0.531

257 2 1+2 4540 10440 2.903

1 3 1+2+2 5780 8410 8860 2.360

4 3 1+2+2 6400 10400 10460 4.656

9 3 1+2+2 3850 6000 10740 1.680

19 3 1+2+2 7120 11720 11760 7.410

28 3 1+2+2 10850 14260 14290 20.540

42 3 1+2+2 4090 3680 3720 0.207

50 3 1+2+2 5420 9080 9160 2.660

53 3 1+2+2 5360 11250 11350 5.632

55 3 1+2+2 8860 11520 11540 8.881

70 3 1+2+2 7450 13840 13780 13.218

74 3 1+2+2 6340 10400 10360 4.552

78 3 1+2+2 6400 9960 9920 3.996

81 3 1+2+2 5220 7040 7400 1.257

82 3 1+2+2 6500 9820 10220 4.154

87 3 1+2+2 4620 8070 8300 1.67193 3 1+2+2 5760 9420 8820 2.785

95 3 1+2+2 6540 11740 11720 6.999

99 3 1+2+2 6420 7880 7980 2.156

101 3 1+2+2 4420 8940 7940 1.819

114 3 1+2+2 3680 9650 9740 2.913

141 3 1+2+2 4810 4300 5280 0.450

151 3 1+2+2 7260 8680 8850 3.345

157 3 1+2+2 5220 10340 10380 4.063

158 3 1+2+2 5550 8770 9240 2.596

163 3 1+2+2 5660 9340 9640 3.126

164 3 1+2+2 4380 9480 9740 2.913

167 3 1+2+2 4940 8020 7980 1.620

168 3 1+2+2 5840 8980 9040 2.714

170 3 1+2+2 5620 9220 6860 1.858

194 3 1+2+2 4690 8740 7340 1.587

197 3 1+2+2 6320 10880 7150 2.946

202 3 1+2+2 6490 9850 11040 4.729

204 3 1+2+2 4890 9700 7680 2.119

210 3 1+2+2 5480 9860 11480 4.607

211 3 1+2+2 6450 11050 9530 4.486

213 3 1+2+2 5680 9560 7880 2.392

215 3 1+2+2 5880 11890 8300 3.940

219 3 1+2+2 5890 10560 9020 3.562

220 3 1+2+2 4880 9710 10700 3.756

223 3 1+2+2 3890 7280 10620 2.166

224 3 1+2+2 6620 9440 8870 3.251

225 3 1+2+2 8160 7940 7280 3 406

S.NoVehicle

TypeConfiguration

Axle Load

1st Axle 2

nd Axle 9

th Axle VDF3

rd Axle 4

th Axle 5

th Axle 6

th Axle 7

th Axle 8

th Axle

206 4 1+2+2+2 5740 10960 10760 10280 7.731

207 4 1+2+2+2 3480 5500 7000 7000 1.049

208 4 1+2+2+2 3900 5900 6400 6200 0 897



208 4 1+2+2+2 3900 5900 6400 6200 0.897

209 4 1+2+2+2 4280 6300 7800 7800 1.712



ANNEXURE 2.6

OD MATRICES

Km 73

Cars

D/O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Total

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 20 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 49

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11

8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 10 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 245 27 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 9 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 0 1 335

18 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18

19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18

20 0 0 3 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 12 0 2 0 0 0 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36

21 0 0 2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 2 0 0 2 288 25 13 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 378

22 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

24 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

26 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

36 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

42 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 0 0 10 31 0 0 4 0 0 0 27 0 4 0 0 2 323 30 13 68 308 50 25 4 1 0 0 0 0 10 1 0 3 0 2 2 9 3 1 4 1 1 2 1 0 1 941

Km 73

Govt Bus

D/O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Total

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Km 73

3 Axle Truck

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Km 73

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Km 130

2 Axle Truck

D/O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Total

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11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40

38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

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46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 2 5 17 0 19 0 2 16 388 0 0 17 297 2 22 0 4 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 50 1 4 45 0 2 4 0 0 0 917

Km 130

3 Axle Truck

D/O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Total

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



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11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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37 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42

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Km 130

MAV

D/O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Total

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ANNEXURE 3.1

REGISTRED VEHICLE DATA

Annexure 3.1

Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Jammu Kaskmir

Year Cars Buses LGV Trucks

2004-05 85812 20735 13949 315152005-06 98309 21435 16843 33174

2006-07 112135 22161 20004 35697



2007-08 128398 23149 22674 38977

2008-09 145060 24051 24768 41696

2009-10 172071 23480 43238 35109

2010-11 198238 25858 46792 35414

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Punjab

Year Cars Buses LGV Trucks2004-05 300594 19855 53799 64967

2005-06 335284 21136 59566 68154

2006-07 367655 22373 20186 119630

2007-08 406966 24457 129797

2008-09 444465 25682 139065

2009-10 484064 27146 149367


Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Delhi


2007-08 1668880 39622 105331 83770

Annexure 3.1

Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Rajasthan

Year Cars Buses LGV Trucks

2004-05 234297 58092 17674 191207

2005-06 269861 60979 22966 2063812006-07 310101 63320 116861 152223

2007-08 355122 65605 127937 169486



2008-09 402239 69298 138487 179631

2009-10 455924 73257 148892 198089

2010-11 520385 77980 162837 222959


Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Maharashtra


2005-06 1165365 66754 334741 287230

2006-07 1308088 71187 383854 316502

2007-08 1462518 77042 436725 344267

2008-09 1603728 79073 478975 366642

2009-10 1790259 83816 521692 3747052010-11 2027080 89861 583847 389941




ANNEXURE 3.2

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis

State Delhi

Vehicle Registartion Data

Year Cars Buses Trucks

2006-07 1536897 38500 82525

2007-08 1668880 39622 83770

2008-09 1802251 41142 84114

2009-10 1956574 43250 85384

2010-11 2116107 45757 86301



Year NSDP PCI

2004-05 9471700 63877

2005-06 10447300 69128

2006-07 11744400 76243

2007-08 13068300 83243

2008-09 14696100 91845

2009-10 16316100 100050

2010-11 18097400 108876

Regression Analysis

Trucks with NSDP

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.99995505

R Square 0.99991009

Adjusted 0.74991009Standard E 0.12025373

Observatio 5

ANOVA

df SS MS F ignificance F

Regression 1 643.3098253 643.3098 44485.97 2.35E-07

Residual 4 0.057843838 0.014461

Total 5 643.3676691

Coeff icients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% ower 95.0% pper 95.0%

Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

X Variable 0.79904678 0.003788442 210.917 3.03E-09 0.788528 0.809565 0.788528 0.809565

Cars with PCI



R Square 0.99998927

Adjusted 0.74998927Standard E 0.05277066

Observatio 5

ANOVA

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis

State J&K



2004-05 85812 20735 31515

2005-06 98309 21435 33174

2006-07 112135 22161 356972007-08 128398 23149 38977

2008-09 145060 24051 41696

2009-10 172071 23480 35109



2010-11 198238 25858 35414

Year NSDP PCI

2004-05 2329200 21734

2005-06 2437100 22406

2006-07 2579400 233752007-08 2738700 24470

2008-09 2910200 25641

2009-10 3031200 26344

2010-11 3218700 27607

Regression Analysis

Trucks with NSDP



R Square 0.88192781

Adjusted 0.85831337

Standard E 0.03710015

Observatio 7

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.051405161 0.051405 37.34697412 0.001700204

Residual 5 0.006882105 0.001376Total 6 0.058287266

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% ower 95.0% pper 95.0%

Intercept -1.11642067 1.903251378 -0.58659 0.582964186 -6.008884084 3.776043 -6.00888 3.776043

X Variable 0.78476263 0.128413476 6.111217 0.001700204 0.454665278 1.11486 0.454665 1.11486

Cars with PCI



R Square 0.99975559

Adjusted 0.83308893

Annexure 3.2

Buses with PCI



R Square 0.99999522

Adjusted 0.83332856


Observatio 7

ANOVA




Regression 1 705.6483909 705.6484 1255954.755 1.07366E-14

Residual 6 0.003371053 0.000562

Total 7 705.6517619


Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/AX Variable 0.99370061 0.000886683 1120.694 3.40703E-17 0.991530975 0.99587 0.991531 0.99587

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis

State Maharashtra



2004-05 1039800 63405 266004

2005-06 1165365 66754 287230

2006-07 1308088 71187 3165022007-08 1462518 77042 344267

2008-09 1603728 79073 366642

2009-10 1790259 83816 374705

2010-11 2027080 89861 389941



2010 11 2027080 89861 389941

Year NSDP PCI

2004-05 36836871 35915

2005-06 42650340 40947

2006-07 48807940 46158

2007-08 54231132 50532

2008-09 58583421 51053

2009-10 63482861 57458

2010-11 70283194 62729

Regression Analysis

Trucks with NSDP


Multiple R 0.99999315R Square 0.99998629

Adjusted 0.83331963


Observatio 7

ANOVA


Regression 1 1131.51087 1131.511 437752.0334 1.497E-13

Residual 6 0.015508929 0.002585

Total 7 1131.526379


Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

X Variable 0.82205532 0.001242473 661.6283 8.04644E-16 0.819015098 0.825096 0.819015 0.825096

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis

State Punjab



2004-05 300594 19855 64967

2005-06 335284 21136 68154

2006-07 367655 22373 119630

2007-08 406966 24457 129797

2008-09 444465 25682 139065

2009-10 484064 27146 149367



Year NSDP PCI

2004-05 8610800 33103

2005-06 9033000 34096

2006-07 10007200 37087

2007-08 10873800 39567

2008-09 11476600 41003

2009-10 12180200 42727

2010-11 12993300 44752

Regression Analysis

Trucks with NSDP



R Square 0.871306785

Adjusted R 0.845568142


Observatio 7

ANOVA

df SS MS F ignificance F

Regression 1 0.681264617 0.681265 33.85209 0.002118

Residual 5 0.100623724 0.020125

Total 6 0.781888342

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0%

Intercept -19.0183861 5.266377691 -3.611284 0.01536 -32.55604 -5.480731 -32.55604 -5.480731

X Variable 2.207945919 0.379485954 5.818255 0.002118 1.232446 3.183446 1.232446 3.183446

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis

State Rajasthan



2004-05 234297 58092 191207

2005-06 269861 60979 206381

2006-07 310101 63320 152223

2007-08 355122 65605 169486

2008-09 402239 69298 179631

2009-10 455924 73257 198089



2010-11 520385 77980 222959

Year NSDP PCI

2004-05 11263572 18565

2005-06 12020228 194452006-07 13434991 21342

2007-08 14047148 21922

2008-09 15062054 23356

2009-10 15684408 24166

2010-11 17265633 26436

Regression Analysis

Trucks with NSDP Regression Statistics


R Square 0.99913694

Adjusted 0.99896433


Observatio 7

ANOVA

df SS MS F ignificance F Regression 1 0.091036765 0.091037 5788.334 7.43E-09

Residual 5 7.86381E-05 1.57E-05

Total 6 0.091115403

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0%

Intercept -0.83924692 0.142480993 -5.89024 0.002005 -1.20551 -0.47299 -1.20551 -0.47299

X Variable 0.76552959 0.01006202 76.0811 7.43E-09 0.739664 0.791395 0.739664 0.791395



ANNEXURE 3.3

TRAFFIC PROJECTION AT NORMAL GROWTH

(WITHOUT DIVERSION AND WITHOUT

GENERATED TRAFFIC)



ANNEXURE 3.4

DIVERTED LOCAL TRAFFIC PROJECTION



ANNEXURE 3.5

GENERATED TRAFFIC PROJECTION

Car/Jeep/

Van Pr ivate Taxi Mi ni bus Bus (Govt )Bus (Pvt) School Bus Car GoodsLCV (1-1) LCV (1-2)

3axle

Truck

4axle to 6

axle

7-axle and

above

Construction/

Machinnery

2017 103 113 2 2 14 0 20 5 14 33 11 0 0 442 839 839

Growth

Rate (%)6.75 6.75 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 7.75 7.75 6.75 8.00 8.00 8.00

2018 110 121 2 2 15 0 21 5 15 35 12 0 0 469 888 888

2019 117 129 2 2 15 0 22 6 16 38 13 0 0 497 939 939

2020 125 137 2 2 16 0 23 6 18 40 14 0 0 526 990 990

2021 134 147 2 2 17 0 24 7 19 43 15 0 0 559 1 048 1048

Generated Traffic Projection

Total

Number PCUs

Tollable

PCUs

Goods

Year

Passenger



2022 143 157 2 2 17 0 25 7 20 46 16 0 0 591 1 104 1104

Growth

Rate (%)6.50 6.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 7.25 7.25 6.50 7.75 7.75 7.75

2023 152 167 2 2 18 0 26 8 21 49 17 0 0 625 1 164 1164

2024 162 178 2 2 18 0 27 8 23 52 19 0 0 661 1 228 1228

2025 173 190 2 2 19 0 28 9 25 56 20 0 0 702 1 300 1300

2026 184 202 2 2 20 0 29 9 26 59 22 0 0 741 1 371 1371

2027 196 215 2 2 21 0 30 10 28 63 23 0 0 784 1 445 1445

Growth

Rate (%)6.00 6.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 7.25 7.25 7.25

2028 208 228 2 2 22 0 31 11 30 67 25 0 0 828 1 523 1523

2029 220 242 2 2 23 0 32 11 32 71 26 0 0 872 1 600 1600

2030 233 256 2 2 24 0 34 12 34 75 28 0 0 920 1 684 1684

2031 247 271 2 2 25 0 35 13 37 80 30 0 0 971 1 774 1774

2032 262 288 2 2 26 0 36 14 39 84 33 0 0 1025 1870 1870

2033 278 305 3 3 27 0 38 15 42 89 35 0 0 1084 1973 1973

2034 295 323 3 3 28 0 39 16 45 95 38 0 0 1145 2082 2082

2035 312 343 3 3 29 0 41 17 48 100 40 0 0 1207 2187 2187

2036 331 363 3 3 30 0 43 18 51 106 43 0 0 1273 2302 2302

2037 351 385 3 3 31 0 44 20 55 113 46 0 0 1345 2427 2427

2038 372 408 3 3 32 0 46 21 59 120 50 0 0 1421 2562 2562

2039 394 433 3 3 34 0 48 23 63 127 53 0 0 1501 2699 2699

2040 418 459 3 3 35 0 50 24 67 134 57 0 0 1583 2840 2840

2041 443 486 3 3 36 0 52 26 72 142 61 0 0 1671 2991 2991

2042 470 515 4 4 38 0 54 28 77 151 66 0 0 1769 3165 3165

2043 498 546 4 4 39 0 56 30 83 160 70 0 0 1868 3334 3334

2044 528 579 4 4 41 0 58 32 88 170 76 0 0 1974 3520 3520



ANNEXURE 3.6

PROJECTED TRAFFIC

Year Cars

Mini

Bus Buses

Car

Goods LGV

2axle

Truck

3axle

Truck MAV Others

Toll

Exepmted

Total

Vehicles PCUs

Tollable

Vehicles

Tollable

PCUS

2017 4524 49 354 425 401 2625 696 233 10 321 9638 18480 9317 17743

2018 3910 51 281 443 370 2352 637 216 11 327 8598 16568 8271 15816

2019 4173 53 293 462 399 2457 681 234 12 334 9098 17480 8764 16713

2020 4454 55 305 482 429 2568 727 252 13 340 9625 18436 9285 17655

2021 4756 58 319 502 463 2683 775 272 14 348 10190 19456 9842 18658

2022 5077 60 331 524 497 2804 828 294 15 354 10784 20529 10430 19716

2023 5407 62 344 545 533 2930 882 317 16 362 11398 21643 11036 20811

Projected Traffic - Tunnel



2023 5407 62 344 545 533 2930 882 317 16 362 11398 21643 11036 20811

2024 5758 65 358 567 572 3062 939 341 17 369 12048 22816 11679 21969

2025 6133 67 372 589 613 3200 1000 368 19 376 12737 24063 12361 23200

2026 6532 70 387 613 658 3344 1065 396 20 382 13467 25375 13085 24497

2027 6956 73 403 638 705 3494 1134 427 22 390 14242 26771 13852 25875

2028 7373 76 419 664 755 3642 1202 458 24 398 15011 28156 14613 27242

2029 7816 79 436 690 807 3797 1274 491 25 406 15821 29612 15415 28678

2030 8285 82 453 718 864 3959 1351 527 27 414 16680 31156 16266 30204

2031 8782 85 472 746 924 4127 1432 565 29 423 17585 32780 17162 31808

2032 9308 89 490 776 988 4302 1518 606 31 431 18539 34487 18108 33496

2033 9868 92 510 807 1058 4485 1609 650 33 440 19552 36296 19112 35286

2034 10459 96 530 840 1132 4676 1705 697 36 448 20619 38202 20171 37173

2035 11086 100 552 873 1211 4875 1807 747 39 457 21747 40214 21290 39165

2036 11752 104 573 908 1296 5082 1916 802 41 466 22940 42337 22474 41267

2037 12457 108 596 944 1387 5298 2031 860 44 476 24201 44580 23725 43487

2038 13205 112 621 982 1484 5523 2153 922 48 485 25535 46951 25050 45837

2039 13996 117 645 1021 1587 5758 2282 989 51 495 26941 49446 26446 48308

2040 14837 122 671 1062 1699 6002 2419 1061 55 504 28432 52087 27928 50929

2041 15727 126 698 1105 1818 6257 2564 1138 59 515 30007 54876 29492 53692

2042 16671 131 726 1149 1945 6523 2718 1220 63 525 31671 57814 31146 56609

2043 17671 137 755 1195 2081 6800 2881 1309 67 535 33431 60923 32896 59693

2044 18731 142 785 1243 2227 7090 3054 1403 72 545 35292 64205 34747 62952

7612 traffic study for chenani nashri tunnel project

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