La Belle du Jour –La Belle du Jour –New Service Epistemes andNew Service Epistemes and

Reordering KnowledgeReordering KnowledgeTheory or Effects Application?Theory or Effects Application?

Is Futures Research Advancing Intelligibility?Is Futures Research Advancing Intelligibility?

Professor Luiz MoutinhoProfessor Luiz MoutinhoFoundation Chair of MarketingFoundation Chair of MarketingUniversity of Glasgow, ScotlandUniversity of Glasgow, Scotland

Global economyGlobal economy

What kind of role are services given in the What kind of role are services given in the global economy? Nowadays, services are global economy? Nowadays, services are increasingly important to the economy. This increasingly important to the economy. This is evident from two facts: the service industry is evident from two facts: the service industry has grown significantly, and even companies has grown significantly, and even companies that fall outside of the service industry are that fall outside of the service industry are more and more reliant on “service-based more and more reliant on “service-based business.”business.”

SERVICES SCIENCESERVICES SCIENCE

Still, the “Palmisano Report” (2004) points out the service Still, the “Palmisano Report” (2004) points out the service sector’s lack of research investment in innovative sector’s lack of research investment in innovative business process design, organisation and management, business process design, organisation and management, despite services’ major contribution to the economy.despite services’ major contribution to the economy.

Therefore, an academic discipline called “Services Therefore, an academic discipline called “Services Sciences, Management and Engineering”, or simply Sciences, Management and Engineering”, or simply “Services Sciences” is emerging which includes not only “Services Sciences” is emerging which includes not only the service industry as a tertiary industry but also the the service industry as a tertiary industry but also the service business in the manufacturing sector.service business in the manufacturing sector.

INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION

Services sciences as knowledge Services sciences as knowledge integration.integration.

THEORY OR THEORY OR PARADIGM?PARADIGM?

Theory or paradigm?Theory or paradigm?

What is meant by theory? The term has many What is meant by theory? The term has many meanings even in the philosophy of science. meanings even in the philosophy of science. However, even when the term theory is used in However, even when the term theory is used in the sense of some speculative hypothesis, it still the sense of some speculative hypothesis, it still carries the notion of something offered by way carries the notion of something offered by way of an explanation .of an explanation .

THEORY OF SERVICETHEORY OF SERVICE

Theory of service means knowledge of what is Theory of service means knowledge of what is permanent and normal in producing a service.permanent and normal in producing a service.

MULTIPLE MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVESPERSPECTIVES

The need for multiple perspectives in services marketing.The need for multiple perspectives in services marketing.

Is it wise to propose any single perspective for services Is it wise to propose any single perspective for services marketing? Advocating a single perspective is like marketing? Advocating a single perspective is like assuming a “one best way”.assuming a “one best way”.

Endorsing the notion of the need for multiple Endorsing the notion of the need for multiple perspectives is perspectivism, which contrasts with perspectives is perspectivism, which contrasts with positivism’s claim that we can attain knowledge that positivism’s claim that we can attain knowledge that reflects reality as it is (Fay, 1996). Open-minded people, reflects reality as it is (Fay, 1996). Open-minded people, within limits, are capable of shifting from one perspective within limits, are capable of shifting from one perspective to another, and scientists may think of how a theory to another, and scientists may think of how a theory might work given other scientific perspectives.might work given other scientific perspectives.

Knowable worldKnowable world

Our perspective affects the way we search for, interpret, Our perspective affects the way we search for, interpret, and pull together evidence.and pull together evidence.

Shweder (2003, p. 45), professor of human development Shweder (2003, p. 45), professor of human development at the University of Chicago, words it well:at the University of Chicago, words it well:

[…] the knowable world is incomplete if […] the knowable world is incomplete if seen from any one point of view, seen from any one point of view, incoherent if seen from all points of view incoherent if seen from all points of view at once, and empty if seen from nowhere at once, and empty if seen from nowhere in particular.in particular.

LOGICLOGIC

An emerging marketing management logic An emerging marketing management logic proposes a new perspective on service activities, proposes a new perspective on service activities, which previously have been subject to a biased which previously have been subject to a biased goods-dominant logic. According to this new goods-dominant logic. According to this new logic, customers always are co-producers of logic, customers always are co-producers of services and co-creators of value, not simple services and co-creators of value, not simple marketing targets, because they mobilise marketing targets, because they mobilise knowledge and other resources in the service knowledge and other resources in the service process that affect the success of a value process that affect the success of a value proposition.proposition.

SDLSDL

Marketing theory recently introduced the concept Marketing theory recently introduced the concept of the service dominant logic (SDL), according to of the service dominant logic (SDL), according to which the customer is always a co-producer of which the customer is always a co-producer of value, not a target of that value.value, not a target of that value.

According to this view, the customer becomes According to this view, the customer becomes embedded in the service offering and ultimately is embedded in the service offering and ultimately is responsible for the value added to the process responsible for the value added to the process (Vargo and Lusch, 2004).(Vargo and Lusch, 2004).

Service exchangeService exchange

Although influenced by the same guiding Although influenced by the same guiding principle, the desire to enhance the service principle, the desire to enhance the service exchange, the theory and the practice still remain exchange, the theory and the practice still remain disconnected. This is due to the distance between disconnected. This is due to the distance between the academic need to abstract an emergent the academic need to abstract an emergent theory and the practitioner’s desire to drive theory and the practitioner’s desire to drive forward a new and potentially rewarding business forward a new and potentially rewarding business model into the marketplace.model into the marketplace.

CO-PRODUCTIONCO-PRODUCTION

Co-production represents a central construct in Co-production represents a central construct in service literature (Zeithaml et al., 2006), such that service literature (Zeithaml et al., 2006), such that the customer always plays an active role in the the customer always plays an active role in the service offering.service offering.

CO-PRODUCTION-SDLCO-PRODUCTION-SDL

The concept of service co-production recently has been The concept of service co-production recently has been reconsidered and enhanced. The emergent SDL (Vargo reconsidered and enhanced. The emergent SDL (Vargo and Lusch, 2004, 2006) provides a new perspective that is and Lusch, 2004, 2006) provides a new perspective that is rapidly gaining an established position in marketing rapidly gaining an established position in marketing literature. It proposes a novel framework in which literature. It proposes a novel framework in which services represent the forefront of economic exchange services represent the forefront of economic exchange systems. Management theory and business practice have systems. Management theory and business practice have long centred on a goods-dominant logic, but that logic long centred on a goods-dominant logic, but that logic may no longer be consistent with the foundational role of may no longer be consistent with the foundational role of services in a modern economy.services in a modern economy.

SOASOA

Moreover, the SDL places the customer centre stage such Moreover, the SDL places the customer centre stage such that the customer is always a co-producer, and the that the customer is always a co-producer, and the company delivers not value, but value propositions.company delivers not value, but value propositions.

A new generation of IT, namely service-oriented A new generation of IT, namely service-oriented architecture (SOA), can enhance the processes of architecture (SOA), can enhance the processes of customer inclusion and participation in service provision.customer inclusion and participation in service provision.

SOA is based on a modular foundation, such that the SOA is based on a modular foundation, such that the elements within the IT system can be composed and elements within the IT system can be composed and decomposed according to the different needs of business decomposed according to the different needs of business users (Cherbakov et al., 2005).users (Cherbakov et al., 2005).

VALUEVALUE

Vargo, Maglio and Akaka (2008) argue that value Vargo, Maglio and Akaka (2008) argue that value is fundamentally derived and determined in is fundamentally derived and determined in useuse – – the integration and application of resources in a the integration and application of resources in a specific context – rather than in specific context – rather than in exchangeexchange – – embedded in company output and captured by embedded in company output and captured by price.price.

But value is an elusive term.But value is an elusive term.

VALUE 2VALUE 2

The nature of value has been discussed and The nature of value has been discussed and debated since Aristotle. Part of its elusiveness debated since Aristotle. Part of its elusiveness stems from the oblique – if not orthogonal – stems from the oblique – if not orthogonal – meanings of value that have been embedded in meanings of value that have been embedded in the foundations of economics and the study of the foundations of economics and the study of market exchange. Specifically, two general market exchange. Specifically, two general meanings of value, “value-in-exchange” and meanings of value, “value-in-exchange” and “value-in-use”, reflect different ways of thinking “value-in-use”, reflect different ways of thinking about value and value creation.about value and value creation.

SERVICE DOMINANT SERVICE DOMINANT LOGICLOGIC

The The service-dominantservice-dominant (S-D) (S-D) logiclogic, is tied to the , is tied to the value-in-use meaning of value (Vargo and Lusch, value-in-use meaning of value (Vargo and Lusch, 2008).2008).

Customers apply their knowledge and skills in the Customers apply their knowledge and skills in the use of the offer in the context of their own lives.use of the offer in the context of their own lives.

Aristotle believed that “need” was what held the Aristotle believed that “need” was what held the process of exchange together, but a person’s need process of exchange together, but a person’s need lacked a unit of measurement. lacked a unit of measurement.

EXCHANGE VALUEEXCHANGE VALUE

The controversy over a commensurable metric of The controversy over a commensurable metric of exchange value remained embedded in the development exchange value remained embedded in the development of economic thought, largely by Smith’s (1776) early of economic thought, largely by Smith’s (1776) early distinction of real value, labour, and nominal value, distinction of real value, labour, and nominal value, money.money.

Smith explained that “the things which have the greatest Smith explained that “the things which have the greatest value in use have frequently little or no value in value in use have frequently little or no value in exchange; and on the contrary, those which have the exchange; and on the contrary, those which have the greatest value in exchange have frequently little or no greatest value in exchange have frequently little or no value in use” (Smith, 1776/2000, p. 31).value in use” (Smith, 1776/2000, p. 31).

S-D LOGIC S-D LOGIC

The S-D logic notion of value co-creation The S-D logic notion of value co-creation suggests that “experience and perception are suggests that “experience and perception are essential to value determination” (Vargo and essential to value determination” (Vargo and Lusch, 2006, p. 44).Lusch, 2006, p. 44).

LOCUS OF VALUE LOCUS OF VALUE CREATIONCREATION

Moving the locus of value creation from exchange Moving the locus of value creation from exchange to use, or context, means transforming our to use, or context, means transforming our understanding of value from one based on understanding of value from one based on units units of firm output to one based on of firm output to one based on processesprocesses that that integrate resources. This move is fundamental for integrate resources. This move is fundamental for the development of service science, which aims to the development of service science, which aims to focus scientific attention on problems associated focus scientific attention on problems associated with innovating service and enhancing service with innovating service and enhancing service provision (Chesbrough and Spohrer, 2006; Spohrer provision (Chesbrough and Spohrer, 2006; Spohrer et al., 2006).et al., 2006).

SERVICE INNOVATIONSSERVICE INNOVATIONS

Now, there is tremendous need for service innovations or Now, there is tremendous need for service innovations or new ways of creating value with intangible and dynamic new ways of creating value with intangible and dynamic resources, to fuel economic growth and to raise the resources, to fuel economic growth and to raise the quality and effectiveness of service(s), especially for quality and effectiveness of service(s), especially for knowledge-intensive industries (Spohrer and Maglio, knowledge-intensive industries (Spohrer and Maglio, 2008). But it seems creating systematic service 2008). But it seems creating systematic service innovation depends on interdisciplinary knowledge and innovation depends on interdisciplinary knowledge and skills, integrating across technology, business, social, and skills, integrating across technology, business, social, and demand innovations (Maglio et al., 2006)demand innovations (Maglio et al., 2006)

SERVICE SCIENCESERVICE SCIENCE

The service-science, S-D logic framework for value The service-science, S-D logic framework for value co-creation fundamentally shifts the underlying co-creation fundamentally shifts the underlying focus of value creation away from the company focus of value creation away from the company output and value-in- exchange. It focuses on output and value-in- exchange. It focuses on value-in-use and in-context and suggests that value-in-use and in-context and suggests that service systems simultaneously access, adapt and service systems simultaneously access, adapt and integrate resources to create value for themselves integrate resources to create value for themselves and others, and that knowledge is the core source and others, and that knowledge is the core source of all exchange.of all exchange.

VALUE CO-CREATIONVALUE CO-CREATION

This exploration of value co-creation raises as many This exploration of value co-creation raises as many questions as it answers. For example: what exactly are questions as it answers. For example: what exactly are the processes involved in value co-creation? How can we the processes involved in value co-creation? How can we measure co-created value and value-in-use? How does measure co-created value and value-in-use? How does information technology influence the ways in which value information technology influence the ways in which value can be created effectively? What approaches do we need can be created effectively? What approaches do we need to understand the sociotechnical context of value to understand the sociotechnical context of value creation? What are the research methods appropriate creation? What are the research methods appropriate for understanding value as an emergent quality?for understanding value as an emergent quality?

BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMSBUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS

With the advancement of service science, it is With the advancement of service science, it is increasingly evident that the producer-consumer increasingly evident that the producer-consumer distinction is inappropriate and that value is created distinction is inappropriate and that value is created through the active participation of all service systems through the active participation of all service systems engaged in exchange (see Vargo and Lusch, 2008).engaged in exchange (see Vargo and Lusch, 2008).

Business Ecosystems.Business Ecosystems.

I2 C2I2 C2

Interactivity, integration, customisation, and co-Interactivity, integration, customisation, and co-production with customers: these are considered production with customers: these are considered by Vargo and Lusch (2004), to be the hallmarks of by Vargo and Lusch (2004), to be the hallmarks of a service-centred view, together with a focus on a service-centred view, together with a focus on the customer. But there is a need to add the customer. But there is a need to add personalised execution, (O’Shaughnessy and personalised execution, (O’Shaughnessy and O’Shaughnessy 2009).O’Shaughnessy 2009).

HEURISTICSHEURISTICS

The rules of services marketing are more like The rules of services marketing are more like “heuristics” (“rules of thumb”) or maxims (rules with “heuristics” (“rules of thumb”) or maxims (rules with exceptions).exceptions).

This is also the basis of the argument by Charnes et al., This is also the basis of the argument by Charnes et al., (1985) that management/marketing science will (1985) that management/marketing science will continue to focus on developing new techniques rather continue to focus on developing new techniques rather than developing substantive theories because concern than developing substantive theories because concern must be with solving problems and not with trying to must be with solving problems and not with trying to make techniques fit theory. It is in the tradition that make techniques fit theory. It is in the tradition that Vargo and Lusch (2004) are writing (O’Shaughnessy and Vargo and Lusch (2004) are writing (O’Shaughnessy and O’Shaughnessy 2009).O’Shaughnessy 2009).

EFFECTS APPLICATIONEFFECTS APPLICATION

Charnes et al, are claiming that management science is Charnes et al, are claiming that management science is concerned with what Calder et al. (1981) call “effects concerned with what Calder et al. (1981) call “effects application” research as opposed to “theory application” application” research as opposed to “theory application” research. The goal of effects application research is to research. The goal of effects application research is to establish action effects and gauge whether there is establish action effects and gauge whether there is sufficient correspondence between the research situation sufficient correspondence between the research situation and situations in real life for the effects observed to be and situations in real life for the effects observed to be repeated. In contrast, Calder et al. argue that theory repeated. In contrast, Calder et al. argue that theory application research seeks generalisable theoretical application research seeks generalisable theoretical knowledge about events and relationships occurring in a knowledge about events and relationships occurring in a variety of real-world situations and seeks to test such variety of real-world situations and seeks to test such theory by trying to falsify it.theory by trying to falsify it.

FALLACYFALLACY

There is a belief by many (not just Vargo and There is a belief by many (not just Vargo and Lusch) in marketing that there are rules, most of Lusch) in marketing that there are rules, most of which remain to be discovered, which will which remain to be discovered, which will provide universal answers to all marketing provide universal answers to all marketing challenges. This is a fruitless if energised pursuit challenges. This is a fruitless if energised pursuit because it is founded on a fallacy. Marketing because it is founded on a fallacy. Marketing management can never be a mechanical management can never be a mechanical application of rules whether the rules are called application of rules whether the rules are called rules, principles, heuristics, maxims or whatever.rules, principles, heuristics, maxims or whatever.

RECIPERECIPE

The more specific the rule, the more it becomes The more specific the rule, the more it becomes like a recipe, with no room left for marketing like a recipe, with no room left for marketing creativity and futures research in marketing... if creativity and futures research in marketing... if academic research performance is to rise above academic research performance is to rise above the mediocre …!the mediocre …!

Rules are not immutable but governed by context.Rules are not immutable but governed by context.

EXPLANATORY THEORYEXPLANATORY THEORY

The goal of science is to track truth through The goal of science is to track truth through explanatory theory.explanatory theory.

As Merton (1968), the sociologist, pointed out, As Merton (1968), the sociologist, pointed out, naïve empiricism is likely to lead to the chaotic naïve empiricism is likely to lead to the chaotic accumulation of miscellaneous empirical accumulation of miscellaneous empirical generalisations as indeed it has in services generalisations as indeed it has in services marketing. This is because empirical research is marketing. This is because empirical research is blind without some guiding theory just as theory blind without some guiding theory just as theory without empirical research can be empty.without empirical research can be empty.

THAT +HOWTHAT +HOW

Science is concerned with “knowing that” rather Science is concerned with “knowing that” rather than “knowing how”. “Knowing that” in a final than “knowing how”. “Knowing that” in a final analysis is what marketing academics, as opposed analysis is what marketing academics, as opposed to the practitioner, must focus on. As Holland to the practitioner, must focus on. As Holland (1980) points out, in wrestling with the problems (1980) points out, in wrestling with the problems that are important in any field of study, ideas, not that are important in any field of study, ideas, not skills, are what count: problems get solved, skills, are what count: problems get solved, transformed or by-passed by those with the transformed or by-passed by those with the profounder conception.profounder conception.

INDUSTRY AND INDUSTRY AND scientificscientific

Despite their increasingly important role in the Despite their increasingly important role in the economy, services are not as productive as economy, services are not as productive as manufacturing. To enable innovation, a manufacturing. To enable innovation, a problem-solving knowledge structure needs to problem-solving knowledge structure needs to be constructed to link industry-specific be constructed to link industry-specific knowledge with scientific knowledge.knowledge with scientific knowledge.

Research ISSUESResearch ISSUES

Research issues in services sciencesResearch issues in services sciences

What should be researched in services sciences is still What should be researched in services sciences is still under debate and thus remains largely undefined.under debate and thus remains largely undefined.

Service innovation managementService innovation management

A major research issue is searching for methods of A major research issue is searching for methods of systematically creating innovation in services to improve systematically creating innovation in services to improve service productivity and of developing new business service productivity and of developing new business seeds, and proposing practical applications for such seeds, and proposing practical applications for such methodologies.methodologies.

THEORY OF THEORY OF CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS

The theory of constraints (TOC) is a management The theory of constraints (TOC) is a management philosophy that has been effectively applied to philosophy that has been effectively applied to thinking processes (Blackstone, 2001, Draman thinking processes (Blackstone, 2001, Draman 1995), and the organisational mindset. Most 1995), and the organisational mindset. Most recently, the thinking processes (logic trees, recently, the thinking processes (logic trees, evaporating clouds, etc.) have come into a more evaporating clouds, etc.) have come into a more widespread use.widespread use.

TOC TOC

The use of the TOC thinking processes can be used in The use of the TOC thinking processes can be used in services just as effectively as in manufacturing (Angst services just as effectively as in manufacturing (Angst et al., 1996; Austin 1998; Coman and Ronen 1994; et al., 1996; Austin 1998; Coman and Ronen 1994; Covington 1998; Dettmer, 1997; Roadman, et al., 1996; Covington 1998; Dettmer, 1997; Roadman, et al., 1996; Tanner and Honeycutt, 1996). Services need a guiding Tanner and Honeycutt, 1996). Services need a guiding management philosophy that will focus on process management philosophy that will focus on process improvement. It may be the TOC thinking processes improvement. It may be the TOC thinking processes and problem-solving techniques that provide the most and problem-solving techniques that provide the most benefit to services.benefit to services.

TRENDS IN IT SERVICE TRENDS IN IT SERVICE MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Trends in IT Service ManagementTrends in IT Service Management•Service Portfolio ManagementService Portfolio Management – Organisations – Organisations are looking to link total demand to the services are looking to link total demand to the services they deliver to achieve a holistic view of the they deliver to achieve a holistic view of the service. Some are tackling this from a Project service. Some are tackling this from a Project and Portfolio Management perspective; others and Portfolio Management perspective; others are looking to ensure that all demand-including are looking to ensure that all demand-including incidents, requests, strategic and tactical incidents, requests, strategic and tactical demand – is measureddemand – is measured

SERVICE SERVICE CATALOGUE,EVENT and CATALOGUE,EVENT and

REQUESTREQUEST

•Service Catalogue ManagementService Catalogue Management – There are two – There are two flavours of this trend. The first flavour is the flavours of this trend. The first flavour is the catalogue that offers various grades of service and catalogue that offers various grades of service and links service levels and costs to the service. The links service levels and costs to the service. The second flavour of this trend is “entitlements” where second flavour of this trend is “entitlements” where bundles are designed and delivered based on the role bundles are designed and delivered based on the role or function of the employee.or function of the employee.•Event and Request ManagementEvent and Request Management – As companies – As companies deal with the continual growth in requests and the deal with the continual growth in requests and the reduction of workforces, automation is the key. reduction of workforces, automation is the key. Finally they are managing the exceptions, not the Finally they are managing the exceptions, not the norm!norm!

Supplier measurementSupplier measurement

•Supplier MeasurementSupplier Measurement – Outsourcing of – Outsourcing of functions and processes is here to stay. With functions and processes is here to stay. With the maturity that companies now have in the maturity that companies now have in outsourcing, the integration of appropriate outsourcing, the integration of appropriate measurement of their supplier networks is measurement of their supplier networks is critical, especially when they have multiple critical, especially when they have multiple suppliers in the supply chain, or in their value suppliers in the supply chain, or in their value network.network.

SERVICE SERVICE MEASUREMENTMEASUREMENT

•Service MeasurementService Measurement – IT has always been – IT has always been good at measurement. This trend is about good at measurement. This trend is about measuring the end-to-end service delivery, measuring the end-to-end service delivery, especially from the consumer perspective. This especially from the consumer perspective. This practice has the added advantage of producing practice has the added advantage of producing IT service quality measurements that enable IT IT service quality measurements that enable IT to be predictive in resolving potential service to be predictive in resolving potential service degradation. In these days of ubiquitous degradation. In these days of ubiquitous computing, the differentiators must be quality computing, the differentiators must be quality and service.and service.

Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts

Attention EconomyAttention Economy

Experience EconomyExperience Economy

Conversation EconomyConversation Economy

Application EconomyApplication Economy

Emotion EconomyEmotion Economy

A shift from “Telling and Selling”A shift from “Telling and Selling”

Services Marketing Evolves from Selling to CitizenshipServices Marketing Evolves from Selling to Citizenship

Share- and –compare economy

Connected Economy

Silver EconomySecret Economy

Reset Economy(underground world of P2P search – Metrics Vacuum)

NEO-CONCEPTUALISATIONSNEO-CONCEPTUALISATIONS

NEO-CONCEPTULISATIONS? DRESS-UPS? … OR FUTURE IMPERATIVES?NEO-CONCEPTULISATIONS? DRESS-UPS? … OR FUTURE IMPERATIVES?NCB + NMRNCB + NMR

•Persona EcosystemsPersona Ecosystems•Consumer EmulationConsumer Emulation•AttentioningAttentioning•From Left Brained to Light BrainedFrom Left Brained to Light Brained•TrysumersTrysumers•InsperiencesInsperiences•Behavioural BiometricsBehavioural Biometrics•Marketing ImmunisationMarketing Immunisation•Neuroscience in MarketingNeuroscience in Marketing•Consumer – Imprinted ResearchConsumer – Imprinted Research•Feedback 3.0Feedback 3.0•Network SamplingNetwork Sampling•Intelligent Virtual Agents (IVAs)Intelligent Virtual Agents (IVAs)•Portable Place-Based ResearchPortable Place-Based Research•Context-Aware Experience Sampling, Location Beacons and Wireless Context-Aware Experience Sampling, Location Beacons and Wireless Motion SensorsMotion Sensors

TRENDSTRENDS

NBM + NMC + NSTMNBM + NMC + NSTM

•Brand SpaceBrand Space•Interface ManagementInterface Management•MicroMedia and BroadcastingMicroMedia and Broadcasting•BlipvertsBlipverts•Experience PlanningExperience Planning•Personal Media AggregatorsPersonal Media Aggregators•New Marketing and Advertising MetricsNew Marketing and Advertising Metrics•Sense and Respond Models. Forward SensingSense and Respond Models. Forward Sensing•Market DrivingMarket Driving

FUTURES RESEARCHFUTURES RESEARCH

Types of Futures ResearchTypes of Futures Research

Among other mapping schemes, Inayatullah (1990) has Among other mapping schemes, Inayatullah (1990) has divided futures studies into three overlapping research divided futures studies into three overlapping research dimensions: empirical, interpretive and critical.dimensions: empirical, interpretive and critical.

In the poststructural critical approach, the task is not In the poststructural critical approach, the task is not prediction or comparison (as in the interpretive) but one prediction or comparison (as in the interpretive) but one of making units of analysis problematic. The task is not of making units of analysis problematic. The task is not so much to better define the future but rather, at some so much to better define the future but rather, at some level, to “undefine” the future.level, to “undefine” the future.

EPISTEMESEPISTEMES

Epistemes or structures of knowledge frame what is Epistemes or structures of knowledge frame what is knowable and what is not, which define and bind knowable and what is not, which define and bind intelligibility.intelligibility.

The goal of critical research is thus to disturb present The goal of critical research is thus to disturb present power relations through making problematic our power relations through making problematic our categories and evoking other places or scenarios of the categories and evoking other places or scenarios of the future.future.

The first term in a poststructural futures toolbox is The first term in a poststructural futures toolbox is deconstruction.deconstruction.

REORDERING REORDERING KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE

Reordering knowledge is similar to deconstruction Reordering knowledge is similar to deconstruction and in that it undoes particular categories. and in that it undoes particular categories.

Emerging issues analysis, for example, at one level Emerging issues analysis, for example, at one level predicts issues outside of conventional knowledge predicts issues outside of conventional knowledge categories but it does so by disturbing categories but it does so by disturbing conventional categories, by making them conventional categories, by making them problematic; it reorders knowledge.problematic; it reorders knowledge.

DECONSTRUCTIONDECONSTRUCTION

Deconstructing conventional metaphors and then Deconstructing conventional metaphors and then articulating alternative metaphors becomes a articulating alternative metaphors becomes a powerful way to critique the present and create powerful way to critique the present and create the possibility of alternative futures.the possibility of alternative futures.

Causal Layered AnalysisCausal Layered Analysis (CLA)(CLA)poststructuralism as methodpoststructuralism as method

Causal layered analysis is a new futures research Causal layered analysis is a new futures research method. Its utility is not in predicting the future method. Its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures.creation of alternative futures.

It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures – in contrast to techniques such as futures – in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios and emerging issues analysis, scenarios and backcasting – and more on the vertical dimension backcasting – and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, or layers of analysis.of futures studies, or layers of analysis.

CLA CLA

The works of Rick Slaughter (1989); P.R. Sarker (1992) and The works of Rick Slaughter (1989); P.R. Sarker (1992) and Oswald Spengler (1997) argue that futures studies should Oswald Spengler (1997) argue that futures studies should be seen as layered, as deep and shallow.be seen as layered, as deep and shallow.

The The firstfirst level is the “litany” – quantitative trends, level is the “litany” – quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, usually presented by the problems, often exaggerated, usually presented by the news media.news media.

The The secondsecond level is concerned with social causes, level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural and political factors. including economic, cultural and political factors. Interpretation is given to quantitative data.Interpretation is given to quantitative data.

Causal Layered AnalysisCausal Layered Analysis

The The thirdthird deeper level is concerned with structure and deeper level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it. the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it. The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, cultural The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, cultural structures that are actor-invariant (not dependent on structures that are actor-invariant (not dependent on who are the actors). Discerning deeper assumptions who are the actors). Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here as are efforts to revision behind the issue is crucial here as are efforts to revision the problem. Based on the varied discourses, discrete the problem. Based on the varied discourses, discrete alternative scenarios can be derived here. The alternative scenarios can be derived here. The foundations for how the litany has been presented and foundations for how the litany has been presented and the variables used to understand the litany are the variables used to understand the litany are questioned at this level.questioned at this level.

CLA CLA

The The fourthfourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or root myth. These are the deep stories, the or root myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious, of often collective archetypes, the unconscious, of often emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, e.g.). This or seeing people as creative resources, e.g.). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. This is the root level of the worldview under inquiry. This is the root level of questioning.questioning.

Causal Layered AnalysisCausal Layered Analysis

Causal layered analysis asks us to go beyond conventional Causal layered analysis asks us to go beyond conventional framing of issues. Normal academic analysis tends to stay framing of issues. Normal academic analysis tends to stay in the second layer with occasional forays into the third, in the second layer with occasional forays into the third, seldom privileging the fourth layer (myth and metaphor). seldom privileging the fourth layer (myth and metaphor). CLA however, does not privilege a particular level.CLA however, does not privilege a particular level.

Litany type scenarios are more instrumental, social level Litany type scenarios are more instrumental, social level scenarios are more policy oriented, and scenarios are more policy oriented, and discourse/worldview scenarios intent on capturing discourse/worldview scenarios intent on capturing fundamental differences. Myth/metaphor type scenarios fundamental differences. Myth/metaphor type scenarios are equally discrete but articulate this difference through are equally discrete but articulate this difference through a story, an image or some other right-brain method.a story, an image or some other right-brain method.

Secondary DataSecondary DataACTA – Anti- and Counter Trend AnalysisACTA – Anti- and Counter Trend Analysis

Primary DataPrimary Data

Data Collection ExpertsData Collection Experts•Brain monitoring (and with reference Brain monitoring (and with reference class)class)•DelphiDelphi•Consensus analysisConsensus analysis•Cross-impact analysisCross-impact analysis•Futures wheelFutures wheel•Judgemental forecastingJudgemental forecasting•Missing link levelsMissing link levels•Think tanks (with AJIC, etc.)Think tanks (with AJIC, etc.)•Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)•Industrial surveysIndustrial surveys•Morphological analysisMorphological analysis•Scenario planningScenario planning

Data Collection - ConsumersData Collection - Consumers•Survey researchSurvey research•In situ researchIn situ research•Ethnographic episodes-Biographical HistoriesEthnographic episodes-Biographical Histories•Ethnographic MimicryEthnographic Mimicry•Mock environment – experimental research Mock environment – experimental research designsdesigns•Eye-tracking researchEye-tracking research

Data Collection - Experts and ConsumersData Collection - Experts and Consumers•ShadowingShadowing•Online group discussionsOnline group discussions•Visioning/preferred futuresVisioning/preferred futures•Causal layered analysis (CLA)Causal layered analysis (CLA)

Futures Research Methodologies Futures Research Methodologies and Toolboxand Toolbox

Statistical, Computer and Mathematical ModellingStatistical, Computer and Mathematical Modelling•Dynamic modellingDynamic modelling•Latent structure analysisLatent structure analysis•Expert systemsExpert systems•Intelligent systemsIntelligent systems•Neural networksNeural networks•Generalised linear models (GLMs)Generalised linear models (GLMs)•CARTCART•Time series with fuzzy logicTime series with fuzzy logic•Nonparametric statisticsNonparametric statistics•Conjoint analysisConjoint analysis•Cluster analysisCluster analysis•Factor analysisFactor analysis•Correspondence analysisCorrespondence analysis•Multidimensional scaling (MDS)Multidimensional scaling (MDS)

Futures Research Methodologies Futures Research Methodologies and Toolboxand Toolbox

REFLECTIONREFLECTION

A FINAL SENSE OF REFLECTIONA FINAL SENSE OF REFLECTION

…”…”The nature of reality is this: it is hidden, and it is hidden, The nature of reality is this: it is hidden, and it is hidden, and it is hidden”and it is hidden”

(Rumi, 13(Rumi, 13thth Century Sufi poet) Century Sufi poet)

…”…”Research is the process of going up alleys to see if they Research is the process of going up alleys to see if they are blind”are blind”

(Marston Bates)(Marston Bates)

……As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it!enable it!

(Antoine de Saint-Exupery)(Antoine de Saint-Exupery)

… … Imaginative consideration, transforms knowledge! …Imaginative consideration, transforms knowledge! …