6 drought risk management scheme act. 5.4_tokarczyk

www.gwpcee.org

Activity 5.4Drought Risk Management Scheme:

a decision support system

Tamara Tokarczyk

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20152 www.gwpcee.org

• Activity leader – Tamara Tokarczyk (PL) • Duration - June 2013 – March 2015• Partners

Basic information

POLAND• Institute of Meteorology

and Water Management National Research Institute, Wroclaw Branch (IMGW-PIB)Tamara TokarczykWiwiana Szalińska

• Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP)Leszek Łabędzki

LITHUANIA• Vilnus University,

Department of Hydrology and Climatology (UV)Gintautas Stankūnavičius,Edvinas Stonevičius

ROMANIA• National Meteorological

Administaration (NMA)Elena Mateescu

• National Research and Development Institute for Soil-Agrochemistry and Environment (ICPA), BucurestiDaniel Aleksandru Gheorghe Stancalie


Basic information

Developing an integrated framework that constitute a systematic approach for building drought management systems for different sectoral context.

Provide a planning process that can facilitate preparation of decision support systems for drought risk management regarding to:

• monitoring network,

• drought indicators,

• drought hazard assessment,

• drought early warning,

• drought prediction,

• impact assessment

• risk assessment

Developed framework defines main principles for drought management that can be applied for various drought aspects.


Implementation process

Framework for decision support tools provides guidance and recommendations for developing and implementing decision system based on indicators achievable in given time-bounds to support drought risk management.

Institutional framework - the institutional coordination set-up and key capacities required to develop the drought risk management systems.

Framework for drought risk assessment - outlines the necessary procedures for assessing drought risks. This entails the analysis of climate/hazard trends and other underlying vulnerability factors.

Framework for drought prevention measures presents the interventions that depends on the risk profile within a given context. Provides an overview of the types of drought risk management options which can be adopted for ensuring immediate responses, enhancing short-term preparedness and promoting long-term resilience.

Framework for drought risk management

The challenge is integration of different approaches and concepts arising from different national, regional and sectoral context.

The recommendations on how to assess drought risk, how to mitigate drought impact and create the catalogue of mitigation tools are frameworks for drought risk management. Framework was based on institutional, methodological, public and operational structures serving to compose integrated body of methods.


Final output(s)

1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought suspectibility (drought hazard) assessment1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability assessment

2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of measures for drought susceptibility assessment.2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to showing the potential adverse consequences.

3.1 Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River3.2 Recommendations for operational support system in drought risk management


Final output(s)

Measures for the assessment of hazard and vulnerability to drought

Methods for the drought hazard and risk management

Framework for Drought Risk Management Scheme

Inventory of the national drought contexts - informations in terms of drought hazard characteristic and assessment, drought impacts and sectors vulnerable to drought

Concept of drought hazard and vulnerability mapping as a tool for drought risk management for selected regional context.

OUTPUT RESULTSPECIFICATION

1. Selection of drought hazard indices for the drought detection, monitoring,2. Development of drought hazard assessment methods taking into account

drought frequency and severity analysis, 3. identification of drought impacts within the given regional and sectoral

context and vulnerability estimation methods, 4. integration of the resultant drought hazard assessment with the drought

vulnerability analysis in order to categorize the areas subject to drought risk.

1. Climatic conditions in the context of drought (LT, PL, RO)2. Drought monitoring and early warning systems (LT, PL, RO)3. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility to drought 4. End-users and dissemination products5. Identification of national sectors vulnerable to drought (LT, PL, RO) 6. Inventory of methodology to characterize drought impact and vulnerability

assessment (LT, PL, RO) 7. Stakeholders on national, regional and local levels and their needs for

information on drought risk (LT, PL, RO)

1. Objectives for drought risk management2. Current status of drought risk management in Odra River3. (study area, organizational framework for water management in Poland,

management of water resources to mitigate drought impacts, drought risk management plans, drought monitoring and prediction

4. Recommendation on development of drought risk management in the Odra River

Planning process (scheme) that can facilitate the preparation of decision support systems for drought risk management


Added valueDrought hazard and vulnerability assessment based upon the indices applicable to the participating countries in the form of maps which present temporal and spatial variation allow identification of the drought-prone regions.

Combining this information with regional context and indicated sectors of economy and elements of the system in the individual countries constitute an easy tool for drought assessment. Ability to interpret the results should be a basis for a construction of a drought information exchange platform. This is the first step to building an Integrated Drought Early Warning System.

Elaborated recommendation for the decision support system in drought risk management are to serve as a common denominator for different regional and sectoral specifications. Introducing a common framework in the form of step-by-step process lead to compatibility and complementarity among different systems. Developed Framework defines main principles for drought management that can be applied for various drought aspects.

Providing integrated guidelines for framing drought risk management systems within the CEE countries is a step forward in attempt to establish common drought management policy.

Project realization allowed to recognized drought vulnerability and management strategies that were developed and applied in the participating countries.


Lessons learned and transferability

Final outputs of activity 5.4 provide useful guidance for the countries involved in the project in integrating drought risk management concepts and practices into development of planning and programme frameworks.

Cooperation among project participants especially highlighted the importance of consolidating national and local experiences and developing materials to inform and guide future cooperation processes in a systematic and integrated manner.

The obtained results shall be continuously reviewed with partners and stakeholders through various knowledge-sharing mechanisms, and revised to respond to changing circumstances.


Drought risk management scheme should be develop in following aspects:

• application of remote sensing data to drought monitoring as a input for drought assessing;

• development of geospatial decision support tools to address spatial distribution of drought hazard and vulnerability;

• identification of vulnerable regions with the application of remote sensing data and geoinformatics techniques;

• applying geospatial technologies for hazard and vulnerability mapping to develop long term strategies for drought management;

• adaptation of new tools for drought impact assessing with exploitation of historical data base (meteorological, hydrological, economical, etc.)

Follow up


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