5 5 washington dc metro market overview grubb-ellis.com
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5
5
WASHINGTON DC METRO
MARKET OVERVIEW
www.grubb-ellis.com
grubb-ellis.com
Susan Pepper
2010 President
GREATER WASHINGTON COMMERCIAL ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS
Senior Vice President
Grubb & Ellis Company
Greater Washington Office Market
• Total SF: 297,376,507*
• Overall Vacancy: 14.9%
• Year To Date Net Absorption: (1,007,442)
• Under Construction: 7,931,938 SF
• Average Asking Rental Rates
– Class A: $39.97
– Class B: $30.90
* Stats compiled by Grubb & Ellis Research do not include Owner Occupied Buildings
Center of the Universe
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research
D.C. Metro – Best of the Biggest
Washington – 37,000
Unemployment Rate Year-End
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10.2%
7.6%
6.2%
2%
7%
12%
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09
Baltimore Metro Washington Metro
U.S.
Loss of Jobs Rising Vacancy
But there’s more to it…
D.C. Metro Office Deliveries
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research, CoStar
Square Feet (Millions)
*Anticipated Deliveries
Vacancy and Average Asking Rental Rates
Dollars per Square Foot Vacancy Rate
D.C. Office Market
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research*Projection
Vacancy and Average Asking Rental Rates
Dollars per Square Foot Vacancy Rate
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research*Projection
Northern VA Office Market
Vacancy and Average Asking Rental Rates
Dollars per Square Foot Vacancy Rate
Suburban MD Office Market
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research*Projection
2009 at a Glance in Greater Washington
1st Quarter
• Overall Vacancy: 13.5%
• Net Absorption: (732,458) SF
• Average Asking Rental Rates– Class A: $39.70
– Class B: $32.67
2nd Quarter
• Overall Vacancy: 14.2%
• Net Absorption: 72,759 SF
• Average Asking Rental Rates– Class A: $40.01
– Class B: $31.75
3rd Quarter
• Overall Vacancy: 14.9%
• Net Absorption: (281,723) SF
• Average Asking Rental Rates– Class A: $39.97
– Class B: $30.90Source: Grubb & Ellis Research
Available Sublease Space
Source: Grubb & Ellis Research
Increasing at a Decreasing rate… Square Feet
Office Sales Volume
(In Billions)
D.C. Metro Investment
* Projection Source: Real Capital Analytics, Grubb & Ellis
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD
2010*
$4.6
$6.5$7.5
$10.8
$14.8 $14.9
$3.1
$1.20 $1.50
1099 New York Avenue – 178,000 SFSale Price: $90.5 millionBuyer: Credit SuisseSeller: Tishman Speyer
What would we do without foreign money?
1999 K Street – 249,000 SFSale Price: $207.8 millionBuyer: Deka Immobilien InvestmentSeller: Vornado Realty trust
*ProjectionSource: General Services Administration, Grubb & Ellis
GSA Regional Inventory of Leased Space
GSA…YEA!
(SF in Millions)
• Economic and job growth expected to continue in 2010
• New deliveries increased vacancy in Greater Washington
• Rental Rates – relatively flat – major concessions to continue
• Office Investment Sales expected to see an uptick in activity
• Government leasing – drive market in 2010
• Don’t shoot the MESSENGER!
Summary