5-2high renewable and improved efficiency scenarios...
TRANSCRIPT
Michael Ochoada SINOCRUZSenior Researcher
Conference on APEC Green Energy Finance18-19 August 2016, Taipei, Chinese Taipei
High Renewable and Improved Efficiency Scenarios: Pathways to Achieving APEC Energy Goals
Presentation Outline
Introduction
High Renewable Scenario
Improved Efficiency Scenario
Impact of Alternative Scenario onCO2 Emissions
Conclusion and Opportunities forPolicy Actions
1. Introduction
APEC Energy Goals
On 02 September 2014, the APECEnergy Ministers (EMM11) issued aJoint Statement which they agreedto aspire to the goal of “Doublingthe Share of Renewables in theAPEC Energy Mix, including inpower generation by 2030 from2010 levels.
In 2007, the APEC Leaders agreed on an aspirational goal toreduce the energy intensity of the region by 25% in 2035,compared with 2005 levels. As such target was seen to beachieved early, the APEC Leaders in 2011 set a more ambitiousgoal of 45% reduction in energy intensity during the same timeframe.
2. High Renewables Scenario
6
Policy Summary of Renewables for Power
7
Renewable Energy Share in Final Energy Demand
The APEC renewable doubling goal is not met in BAU, but would be met in the High renewables scenario.
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC analysis.
8
Note: this map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).
Source: APERC analysis
APEC is endowed with renewables, of which only 31% is utilised．Solar and biomass potential to be developed in South-East Asia.
APEC Renewable Capacity Potential in 2013
9
Access to technologies, renewable resource and land availability lead to lower LCOEs in China, Mexico and the United States
Hydro, biomass and geothermal have low LCOE mainly due to long lifetime, thus sensitive to discount rate.
APEC Renewables Supply Cost Curve
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Sol
ar P
V(r
ooft
op)
Sol
ar P
V(u
tility
)
CSP
Win
d(o
nsho
re)
Win
d(o
ffsh
ore)
Hyd
ro
Bio
fuel
s
Geo
ther
mal
Leve
lised
cos
t of
en
erg
y(2
01
2 U
SD
/kW
h) Range of
LCOE
APEC avgLCOE in 2013
APEC avgLCOE in 2040
Bio
mas
s
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC analysis.
10
Renewables Share in Power Generation
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC analysis.
To meet the doubling RE goal, an average of 100 GW of new capacity should be added each year from 2013-2030.
11
Major growth of solar in Asia, the United States and Oceania
Renewable Power in the High Renewables Scenario
Note: this map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam),BAU = Business-as-usual, HR = High Renewables
Source: IEA statistics 2015 and APERC analysis
12
Policy Summary for Biofuels
Economy Regulation Blend rate mandate Blend rate target Incentives, subsidies and
taxationBioethanol Biodiesel Bioethanol Biodiesel
Australia √ √* √* E4/E5* B2* √Brunei Darussalam - - - - - -Canada √ up to E8.5^ up to B4^ E5 B2 √Chile - - - - - -China - E10^ - 10 Mt (2020) 2 Mt (2020) √Hong Kong √ - - - - √Indonesia √ E3 B10 E20 (2025) B30 (2025) √Japan √ √ - 0.5 million Loe (2017) √Korea √ - B2 - B5 (2020) √Malaysia √ - B7 - B10 √Mexico √ E2 - √ - √New Zealand - - - - - -Papua New Guinea - - - - - -Peru √ - - E7.8 B5 √The Philippines √ E10 B2 E20 (2020) B20 (2025) √Russia √ - - - - -Singapore - - - - - -Chinese Taipei √ - - - - √Thailand - - B7 4 billion L/yr 5 billion L/yr √United States √ up to E15^ up to B10^ 136 billion L/yr (2022)^ √Viet Nam √ E5 -# E10 (2017) - √
Note: √ = existing; - = not existing currently; * = applied in New South Wales and Queensland for bioethanol and in New South Wales for biodiesel; ^ = applied at federal level and in some local territories or states; # = biofuels traded with no mandated blend rate; Mt = million metric tonnes; Loe = litres of oil equivalent; L/yr = litres per year.Sources: APERC analysis and IEA statistics 2015.
13
Biofuel supply growing 2.7%/yr could meet over 5% of transport demand.Enough bioethanol to meet the growing demand, and surplus of biodiesel.
APEC Biofuels in BAU and the High Renewables Scenario
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA statistics 2015.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040
BAU High Renewables
Shar
e of
bio
fuel
s
Mto
e
Biodiesel demand
Bioethanol demand
Biodiesel supplypotential
Bioethanol supplypotential
Share of biofuels(right axis)
14
Bioethanol surplus in the US could offset shortfalls in South-East Asia and China.Excessive biodiesel supply, especially in South-East Asia, export opportunity.
APEC Biofuels in the High Renewables Scenario
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA statistics 2015.
APEC bioethanol supply potential and demand
APEC biodiesel supply potential and demand
3. Improved Efficiency Scenario
16
Total savings of 921 Mtoe equivalent to the combined current demand of Russia, Japan and Korea.
Improved Efficiency Scenario
APEC Energy Intensity target Overall results
45% reduction target
20372032
13% savings921 Mtoe
APEC’s target can be met by 2032 under the Improved Efficiency Scenario
17
Energy savings in the IES by regional grouping, 2015-40
China has the largest saving potential: it delivers 43% of total APEC savings. The US follows with 21%
China and the US account for 64% of the savings
Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).
18
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2015a
Buildings sector energy savings by sub-sector, 2013-40
Unlike industry and transport, buildings energy demand does not peak in the IES, although growth is very small at end of the period
Buildings provides 30% of the savings
13% savings279 Mtoe
19
Note: Space heating includes building improvements as well as appliances.
Residential energy savings by end-use, 2015-40
Space and water heating and lighting have the largest potential in the residential subsector
Efficiency potential in many appliances
20
Note: Excludes non-energy use.Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2015a)
Industry final energy demand in the BAU and IES, 2013-40
Strong energy demand GDP growth decoupling in industry, where 79% output growth is fuelled by only 10% energy demand growth
Industry saves 372 Mtoe or 16%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2013 2020 2030 2040
Mto
e
Oceania
Other Americas
South-East Asia
Other north-eastAsiaRussia
United States
China 0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2013 2020 2030 2040
Mto
e
Business as Usual Improved Efficiency
21
Note: The three most energy-intensive sub-sectors in the APEC region are iron and steel, chemical and petrochemicals, and non-metallic minerals
Energy savings in the IES by sector and by regional grouping, 2013-40
The majority of growth and savings in the Industry sectors come from the less energy intensive sub-sectors.
Largest savings potential in other less intensive industry
22
Road transport energy savings, 2015-40
Transport energy demand peaks in 2025 at 1 695 Mtoe.
Transport provides 29% of the savings
4. Impact of Alternative Scenarios on CO2 Emissions
24
Total CO2 Emissions in APERC Scenarios
APEC energy related emissions can peak by 2020 if both energy efficiency and higher shares of renewables are pursued
25
APEC INDCs
INDC unconditional
INDC conditional
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO2
2°C
BAU
Improved efficiency+ High Renewables
APEC economies need to raise INDC ambitions, as well as energy targets if the global climate goal is to be achieved
Energy related CO2 emissions
5. Conclusion and Opportunities for Policy Actions
27
Realization of the APEC RE Doubling Goal is achievable in the HighRenewable Scenario, but necessitates the following strategies and supportpolicy/measures:
Formulation of comprehensive renewable energy policy and APEC-widerenewables development plan including a roadmap on renewabletechnology development.
Improvement of business environment for renewables development as“doing business” in some APEC economies are still cumbersome.
Providing R&D support for current and next generation technologies.
Strengthening and improving the economy’s electricity system tofacilitate greater VRE integration.
Enhancing biofuels trade among APEC member economies.
Accelerating development and standardization of advanced biofuels.
Promoting flex-fuel vehicles.
Conclusion and Opportunities for Policy Action
28
Energy Efficiency
Formulation of a comprehensive policy on energy efficiency to cover allsectors.
Labeling on appliances, as the common approach, should be amandatory policy rather than information and voluntary based.
Adoption of “Best Available Technology” and best practices in newindustrial developments and establish mechanism to support retrofitting.
Promotion and adoption of alternative and more efficient vehicles, andR&D on battery technology.
Climate Change
Although the combined scenario shows energy-related emissions to peakand start to fall, such is still above the level needed to limit globaltemperature increase to 2°C.
Individual economies should monitor and re-evaluates their INDCs,strengthening commitments to accelerate decarbonization of the energysector.
Conclusion and Opportunities for Policy Action
