46 th annual mid-pacific region 2013 water users conference water supply outlook
DESCRIPTION
46 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2013 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada January 23-25, 2013. Central Valley Project Operations Sacramento, CA Water Supply Outlook January 2013. Sacramento Valley Unimpaired Runoff. 8-Station Index Precipitation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
46th AnnualMid-Pacific Region
2013 Water Users ConferenceWater Supply Outlook
Reno, NevadaJanuary 23-25, 2013
Central Valley Project OperationsSacramento, CA
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013
Sacramento Valley Unimpaired Runoff
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Perc
enta
ge o
f Ave
rage
Year type classification Sacramento Valley Water Year Index 40-30-30
Wet
Dry CriticalDry
Below Normal
Wet172%
55%55%
70%
135%
86%
63%
BelowNormal
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
8-Station Index Precipitation
Chart from California Data Exchange Center
5-Station Index Precipitation
Sierra Snow Pack
Sierra Snow Pack
Snow Depths
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
10
20
30
40
50
60
Snow Depths Peterson Flat - Trinity
Elevation 7150
Jan 2012Jan 2013
Sno
w D
epth
(inc
hes)
Snow Depths
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Snow DepthsCaples Lake - American
Elevation 8000
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Snow
Dep
th (i
nche
s)
Snow Depths
Series1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Snow DepthsDeadman Creek - Stanislaus
Elevation 9250
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Snow
Dep
th (i
nche
s)
Snow Depths
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Snow DepthsGreen Mountain - San Joaquin
Elevation 9250
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Snow
Dep
th (i
nche
s)
Current Reservoir Storages
CVP Reservoir Storage
Total Capacity: 11,360 17 Jan 2013
Reservoir 15-yr Ave Oct 1, 2012 WY2013Trinity 1,654 1,796 1,906Shasta 2,989 2,589 3,417Folsom 439 450 555New Melones 1,635 1,509 1,619Fed San Luis 746 251 711
10/0
2/20
0811
/07/
2008
12/1
3/20
0801
/18/
2009
02/2
3/20
0903
/31/
2009
05/0
6/20
0906
/11/
2009
07/1
7/20
0908
/22/
2009
09/2
7/20
0911
/02/
2009
12/0
8/20
0901
/13/
2010
02/1
8/20
1003
/26/
2010
05/0
1/20
1006
/06/
2010
07/1
2/20
1008
/17/
2010
09/2
2/20
1010
/28/
2010
12/0
3/20
1001
/08/
2011
02/1
3/20
1103
/21/
2011
04/2
6/20
1106
/01/
2011
07/0
7/20
1108
/12/
2011
09/1
7/20
1110
/23/
2011
11/2
8/20
1101
/03/
2012
2/8/
2012
3/15
/201
24/
20/2
012
5/26
/201
27/
1/20
128/
6/20
129/
11/2
012
10/1
7/20
1211
/22/
2012
12/2
8/20
12
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Shasta Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013
10/0
2/20
0811
/07/
2008
12/1
3/20
0801
/18/
2009
02/2
3/20
0903
/31/
2009
05/0
6/20
0906
/11/
2009
07/1
7/20
0908
/22/
2009
09/2
7/20
0911
/02/
2009
12/0
8/20
0901
/13/
2010
02/1
8/20
1003
/26/
2010
05/0
1/20
1006
/06/
2010
07/1
2/20
1008
/17/
2010
09/2
2/20
1010
/28/
2010
12/0
3/20
1001
/08/
2011
02/1
3/20
1103
/21/
2011
04/2
6/20
1106
/01/
2011
07/0
7/20
1108
/12/
2011
09/1
7/20
1110
/23/
2011
11/2
8/20
1101
/03/
2012
2/8/
2012
3/15
/201
24/
20/2
012
5/26
/201
27/
1/20
128/
6/20
129/
11/2
012
10/1
7/20
1211
/22/
2012
12/2
8/20
12
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Folsom Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013
10/0
2/20
0811
/07/
2008
12/1
3/20
0801
/18/
2009
02/2
3/20
0903
/31/
2009
05/0
6/20
0906
/11/
2009
07/1
7/20
0908
/22/
2009
09/2
7/20
0911
/02/
2009
12/0
8/20
0901
/13/
2010
02/1
8/20
1003
/26/
2010
05/0
1/20
1006
/06/
2010
07/1
2/20
1008
/17/
2010
09/2
2/20
1010
/28/
2010
12/0
3/20
1001
/08/
2011
02/1
3/20
1103
/21/
2011
04/2
6/20
1106
/01/
2011
07/0
7/20
1108
/12/
2011
09/1
7/20
1110
/23/
2011
11/2
8/20
1101
/03/
2012
2/8/
2012
3/15
/201
24/
20/2
012
5/26
/201
27/
1/20
128/
6/20
129/
11/2
012
10/1
7/20
1211
/22/
2012
12/2
8/20
12
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
New Melones Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013
10/0
2/20
0811
/07/
2008
12/1
3/20
0801
/18/
2009
02/2
3/20
0903
/31/
2009
05/0
6/20
0906
/11/
2009
07/1
7/20
0908
/22/
2009
09/2
7/20
0911
/02/
2009
12/0
8/20
0901
/13/
2010
02/1
8/20
1003
/26/
2010
05/0
1/20
1006
/06/
2010
07/1
2/20
1008
/17/
2010
09/2
2/20
1010
/28/
2010
12/0
3/20
1001
/08/
2011
02/1
3/20
1103
/21/
2011
04/2
6/20
1106
/01/
2011
07/0
7/20
1108
/12/
2011
09/1
7/20
1110
/23/
2011
11/2
8/20
1101
/03/
2012
2/8/
2012
3/15
/201
24/
20/2
012
5/26
/201
27/
1/20
128/
6/20
129/
11/2
012
10/1
7/20
1211
/22/
2012
12/2
8/20
12
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Millerton Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2.7
15.7
32.8 33.4
Tracking 8SI and Probability Funnel DiagramDate of Estimated Projection 1/17/2013
Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections
• Inflow to date: 1697 TAF• 15 Year Average Inflow to date: 1,528 TAF
• 90% Exceedence Projection: 5,150 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 6,650 TAF
• Historical WY Average: 5,979 TAF
Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections
New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections
• Inflow to date: 184 TAF• 15 Year Average Inflow to date: 197 TAF
• 90% Exceedence Projection: 760 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 1192 TAF
New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections
90-day Precipitation Forecast
Chart from NOAA - CNRFC
17 JAN 2013
Monthly Precipitation Forecast
Chart from NOAA - CNRFC
Thank You
South-Central California Area OfficeFresno, CA
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013
2013 Friant Division Outlook
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan2013-to-
Date 1.17 5.54 7.22 1.24 15.17
2012 3.05 1.92 0.00 5.90 1.50 6.76 5.04 0.36 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.87
Average77-12 2.51 4.33 6.62 8.16 7.94 7.03 3.75 2.09 0.70 0.44 0.17 0.84 21.62
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
2013 Huntington Lake Precipitation Outlook
2012 2013-To-Date
Perc
ent o
f Ave
rage
(%)
Crane Valley 24,397 AF45,500 AF
Mammoth Pool 37,665 AF122,000 AF
Edison Lake 8,410 AF125,000 AF
Huntington Lake35,838 AF89,000 AF
Florence Lake 5,644 AF64,000 AF
Shaver Lake 85,202 AF136,000 AF
Kerckhoff Reservoir3,691 AF4,188 AF
Redinger Lake22,549 AF26,000 AF
Millerton Lake302,518 AF520,500 AF
San Joaquin Basin Upstream Storages
January 22, 2013
Total Capacity
2013 % Capacity
2012 % Capacity
Total Upstream Storage 223,396 611,688 37% 45%
Millerton Lake Storage 302,518 520,500 58% 61%
Total Storage 520,240 1,132,188 46% 52%
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
520,000
760,000
333,800
455,700
2013 Water Supply Outlook Millerton LakeClass 1 Water Supply Available (AF) Interim Restoration Flows (AF)
Exce
edan
ce J
anua
ry 1
For
ecas
t
90% Exceedance
65% Class 1Normal Dry
WY: 1,020,000 AFA-J: 665,000 AF
50% Exceedance
95% Class 1Normal Wet
WY: 1,690,000 AFA-J: 1,137,000 AF
Note:January 22, 2013: 302,518 AFJanuary 22, 2012: 316,045 AF
Maximum Lake Storage (EOM)June 9, 2012: 438,351 AF50% 2013 Forecast: 376,800 AF (June)90% 2013 Forecast: 295,600 AF (June)
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep120,000
145,000
170,000
195,000
220,000
245,000
270,000
295,000
320,000
345,000
370,000
395,000
420,000
445,000
470,000
495,000
520,000
2013 Millerton Lake Storage OutlookWY 2013-to-date 50% Exceedence 90% Exceedence Average 70-12
Stor
age
(AF)
2013 Cachuma Project Outlook
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan
2013-to-date 0.12 1.34 2.95 0.65 5.06
2012 0.47 2.82 0.35 1.58 0.43 3.63 3.21 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 5.22
Average77-12 0.91 1.60 2.91 5.37 5.06 4.63 1.35 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.12 10.78
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2013 Bradbury Dam Precipitation OutlookWY 2012 WY 2013-to-date
Perc
ent o
f Ave
rage
(%)
2013 Cachuma Project Water Supply Outlook
• January 23, 2013:• Storage Capacity: 195,578 AF• Current Storage: 133,265 AF (68% capacity)
• January 23, 2012: 171,367 AF (88% capacity)• Water Supply: 25,714 AF/100%
Thank You
Klamath Basin Area OfficeKlamath Falls, OR
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013
Klamath Basin Outlook
Klamath Basin Watershed
Klamath Basin Precipitation and SWE
Upper Klamath Lake Elevation
Clear Lake Elevation
Gerber Reservoir Elevation
NRCS Upper Klamath Lake January 22nd Inflow Forecasts
% Exceedance Inflow Forecast
Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)
% of Average Inflow
Est Klamath Project UKL Supply (AF)
% of Maximum UKL Irrigation Supply
50% 600,000 92% 381,000 98%70% 524,000 80% 357,000 92%95% 347,150 53% 295,000 76%
Upper Klamath Lake NRCS March through September Inflow Forecasts
NRCS Clear Lake January 22nd Inflow Forecasts
% Exceedance Inflow Forecast
Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)
% of Average Inflow
Est Klamath Project Clear Lake Supply
(AF)
% of Estimated Clear Lake
Irrigation Demand50% 88,000 95% 36,621 100%70% 63,240 68% 16,690 49%90% 26,040 28% 13,000 38%
Clear Lake NRCS February through July Inflow Forecasts
NRCS Gerber Reservoir January 22nd Inflow Forecasts
% Exceedance Inflow Forecast
Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)
% of Average Inflow
Est Klamath Project Gerber Supply (AF)
% of Estimated Gerber Irrigation
Demand50% 36,000 88% 53,529 100%70% 25,010 61% 41,645 100%90% 8,200 20% 30,400 87%
Gerber Reservoir NRCS February through July Inflow Forecasts
Thank You
Lahontan Basin Area OfficeCarson City, NV
Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013
Water Year Precipitation % of Normal10/1/2012 – 1/22/2013
LBAO Water Year Precipitation To Date
Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140% 129%121%
111%
93%
118%
River Basin
% o
f Ave
rage
to D
ate
Current LBAO Snowpack Conditions(Snow Water Equivalent)
Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
107%
126% 120%
85%
126%
River Basin
% o
f the
Med
ian
to D
ate
LBAO Reservoir Storage
Tahoe Prosser Stampede Boca Lahontan Rye Patch0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
50%
31%
76%
39%
23%
9%
122%
103% 105%114%
48%
26%
% of Capacity % of Average
Reservoir
%
LBAO April-July Runoff
Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%
50%
100%
150%
200%211% 215% 217%
114%
180%
47% 53%
26%7%
42%
84% 92%82%
45%
108%
Actual 2011 Volume Actual 2012 Volume Forecasted 2013 Volume
River Basin
% o
f Ave
rage
Historical Truckee River Runoff April-July
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year
Apr
il-Ju
ly V
olum
e (1
000
AF) Average
42-yr Volume260 KAF
2013 Forecast240 KAF92% Avg.
Thank You
The 46th Annual WUC Presentation at:http://www.usbr.gov/mp/pa/water
Q and A