4586 tse big gap between market cap and product...

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ANALYST NET Company Report MEDRCo., Ltd. 4586 TSE MothersIssue Date: Nov. 7 th , 2017 1/13 This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited. Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipeline Has its own technology The company is in the business of developing transdermal absorption formulations based on the active ingredients of existing oral and IV drugs. Its business model is based on the collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies to whom it has licensed out products and, after the drugs go to market, the income from royalties. Unlike most other companies developing new drugs, MEDRx uses the active ingredients of existing drugs, thus ensuring a higher probability of success in the market. Since this is a niche business there are relatively few competitors and the company’s ILTS® technology gives it a distinctive edge. Three main pipeline drugs The company has three significant products in its development pipeline. One of these is the tizanidine tape formulation. In the Spring of 2017, the company concluded a development and sales agreement with Cipla USA. The company’s pipeline also includes an oxycodone tape formulation, the company’s most valuable product which it announced on October 16 would begin Phase 1 clinical trials in the US. And the third important product in the company’s pipeline is a lidocaine tape formulation, development of which is ongoing. Value of main product pipeline estimated at JPY30 billion MEDRx’s market capitalization had been trending around JPY6 billion. Our analysis suggests that the company’s three main pipeline drugs could have a present value somewhere in the region of JPY35 billion. We surmise the reasons for the restrained market valuation includes the termination of further development of ETOREAT. ETOREAT was a non-steroidal drug for external application, for which it is difficult to demonstrate a statistically significant difference versus placebo. On the other hand, it could be easier to demonstrate the effectiveness of ILTS® technology in the case of formulations affecting the central nervous system (such as oxycodone and tizanidine) Looking ahead, we believe MEDRx’s valuation could change significantly as progress is made in the development of tizanidine tape and oxycodone tape formulation. Basic Report Fair Research Inc. Tsuyoshi Suzuki Company Information Location Kagawa prefecture President Yonehiro Matsumura Foundation Date Jan.2002 Capital 5,101 MM JPY Listed Date Feb. 2013 URL www.medrx.co.jp Industry Pharmaceutical Noof Employee 23 Key Indicators As of 201710/13 Share Price 670 Yearly High 1255 Yearly Low 453 Shares Outstanding 8,514,700 Unit of Trading 100 Market Cap 5,704 MM JPY Dividend(est) 0 EPS(est) -141.7 JPY PER(est) na BPS(act) 285.5 JPY PBR(act) 2.35x The original report (Japanese version) issued on 16 th Oct. Results Trend Revenue JPY MM YOY OP Income JP MM YOY RP Income JPY MM YOY Net Income JPY MM YOY EPS JPY Share Price High Low Dec-14 Actual 26 -61.7 -1,003 na -1,012 na -1,016 na -152.0 2,518 785 Dec-15 Actual 37 43.1 -999 na -990 na -878 na -131.2 1,446 500 Dec-16 Actual 22 -40.6 -1,342 na -1,301 na -1,259 na -155.5 1,455 241 Dec-17 1H Actual 18 79.9 -514 na -519 na -477 na -56.1 1,255 453 2H company est 168 1300.0 -747 na -725 na -729 na -85.6 Dec-17 company est. 186 736.8 -1,261 na -1,244 na -1,206 na -141.7

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Page 1: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

ANALYST NET Company Report

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 TSE Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th, 2017

1/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipeline Has its own technology

The company is in the business of developing transdermal absorption formulations based

on the active ingredients of existing oral and IV drugs. Its business model is based on the

collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

to whom it has licensed out products and, after the drugs go to market, the income from

royalties. Unlike most other companies developing new drugs, MEDRx uses the active

ingredients of existing drugs, thus ensuring a higher probability of success in the market.

Since this is a niche business there are relatively few competitors and the company’s ILTS®

technology gives it a distinctive edge.

Three main pipeline drugs

The company has three significant products in its development pipeline. One of these is

the tizanidine tape formulation. In the Spring of 2017, the company concluded a

development and sales agreement with Cipla USA. The company’s pipeline also includes

an oxycodone tape formulation, the company’s most valuable product which it announced

on October 16 would begin Phase 1 clinical trials in the US. And the third important

product in the company’s pipeline is a lidocaine tape formulation, development of which is

ongoing.

Value of main product pipeline estimated at JPY30 billion

MEDRx’s market capitalization had been trending around JPY6 billion. Our analysis

suggests that the company’s three main pipeline drugs could have a present value

somewhere in the region of JPY35 billion. We surmise the reasons for the restrained

market valuation includes the termination of further development of ETOREAT.

ETOREAT was a non-steroidal drug for external application, for which it is difficult to

demonstrate a statistically significant difference versus placebo. On the other hand, it

could be easier to demonstrate the effectiveness of ILTS® technology in the case of

formulations affecting the central nervous system (such as oxycodone and tizanidine)

Looking ahead, we believe MEDRx’s valuation could change significantly as progress is

made in the development of tizanidine tape and oxycodone tape formulation.

Basic Report

Fair Research Inc.

Tsuyoshi Suzuki

Company Information

Location Kagawa

prefecture

President Yonehiro

Matsumura

Foundation Date Jan.2002

Capital 5,101 MM JPY

Listed Date Feb. 2013

URL www.medrx.co.jp

Industry Pharmaceutical

No.of Employee 23

Key Indicators

As of 201710/13

Share Price 670

Yearly High 1255

Yearly Low 453

Shares Outstanding 8,514,700

Unit of Trading 100

Market Cap 5,704 MM JPY

Dividend(est) 0

EPS(est) -141.7 JPY

PER(est) na

BPS(act) 285.5 JPY

PBR(act) 2.35x

The original report (Japanese version) issued on 16th Oct.

Results Trend Revenue JPY MM

YOY %

OP Income JP MM

YOY %

RP Income JPY MM

YOY %

Net Income JPY MM

YOY%

EPS JPY

Share Price

High Low

Dec-14 Actual 26 -61.7 -1,003 na -1,012 na -1,016 na -152.0 2,518 785

Dec-15 Actual 37 43.1 -999 na -990 na -878 na -131.2 1,446 500

Dec-16 Actual 22 -40.6 -1,342 na -1,301 na -1,259 na -155.5 1,455 241

Dec-17 1H Actual 18 79.9 -514 na -519 na -477 na -56.1 1,255 453

2H company est 168 1300.0 -747 na -725 na -729 na -85.6

Dec-17 company est. 186 736.8 -1,261 na -1,244 na -1,206 na -141.7

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

2/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

Business Model

The company has its own in-

house developed technology,

giving its products a higher

probability of success that other

new drug businesses

The company has its own in-

house developed technology,

giving its products a higher

probability of success than

other new drug businesses

In broad terms the company’s business model is based on developing transdermal

absorption formulations based on the active ingredients of existing oral and IV drugs.

It then transfers the technology to pharmaceutical companies from whom it collects

milestone payments and, after commercialization, royalty payments.

Transdermal absorption formulations constitute a growing medium to long-

pharmaceutical segment. Among their attributes are maximization of

pharmaceutical effect, reduced side effects and enhanced quality of life for the

patient. These attributes are achieved by the following:

① Providing a consistent and sustained release of active ingredients to maintain a

constant level of the drug in the bloodstream.

② Little or no fast-pass effect: while the efficacy of oral drugs can be reduced to

10-20% of as they pass through the liver, this is not an issue with transdermal

absorption formulations.

③ Better medication compliance: suitable for patients who find it difficult to take

oral drugs due to a problem in swallowing, and also reduces the problem of

forgetting to medicate.

④ Unlike drug delivery by injection transdermal delivery is painless.

⑤ Transdermal delivery lends itself to a wider range of conditions

The MEDRx business model also has the following two distinguishing factors:

(a) Low risk (i.e. high probability of success) because it does not involve the

discovery or development of new active ingredients.

(b) The company has its own transdermal absorption technology using ionic

liquids (ILTS®: Ionic Liquid Transdermal System), which distinguishes

it from other companies.

Note: Ionic liquids are salts in liquid form at room temperature composed of ions which are

resistant to crystalization. They are non-volatile, non-flammable and electric conductive.

In recent years these properties have led to applications in lithium battery electrolysis and

elsewhere. With ILTS®, MEDRx was the first to develop the technology for the transdermal

absorption of ionic liquids, thus facilitating the administration of drugs which are normally

difficult to administer through the skin. With existing technology, transdermal absorption

was difficult in the case of nucleic acid or macromolecular formulations, but ILTS® has

made it much easier.

Business Model

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

3/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

The company is targeting the

high potential US market

Source: Analyst meeting materials produced by MEDRx

Another interesting feature of MEDRx is that it has built high barriers to entry. It

has a library of several hundred ionic liquids formed from combinations of compounds

with a track record of use on human subjects as pharmaceuticals and additives. It

also has extensive know-how on selecting optimum ionic liquids for particular drug

properties, and formulation expertise on maintaining and improving ionic liquids.

In addition, and looking slightly further ahead to full-scale development, the

company is unique in developing transdermal absorption formulations using

nanocolloids, and microneedle arrays.

The company’s primary target is the US market for transdermal absorption

formulations. This strategy is mainly based on the potential size of the US market

for tape-type formulations.

By basing its activities in the US on existing formulations, the clinical trials required

to acquire FDA approval are simpler than for new drugs (although not true in all

cases, after Phase 1 Phase 2 can be skipped and the process moves straight to Phase

3). Also, worth bearing in mind is the fact that patch-type drugs tend to command

higher prices in the US than in Japan.

ILTS® Breakthrough

The use of ionic liquid facilitates transdermal absorption of drugs previously

unsuited to this type of delivery, such as macromolecules like nucleic acid and

peptides

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

4/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

The company had been making

losses since being listed and

had terminated develoment of

ts most promisisng drug,

ETORIAT. But in April 2017 it

successfully out-licensed its

tizanine tape formulation and

thereby secured development

funds sufficient for about the

next two years

Past corporate results and product development trend

<Availability of funds for development>

Between listing on the Mothers market in February 2013 and September 2017 the

company failed to bring any product through development to the market, and due to

upfront development costs has consistently posted net losses. Of particular note in

this regard was ETOREAT, regarded as one of the company’s most promising major

products. Full-scale development began in 2014, subsequent to which R&D costs

ballooned and losses expanded, leading to the termination of development in 2016.

However, in 2017 the company entered a development and marketing tie-up covering

tizanidine tape with Cipla USA. This is expected to bring in one-off revenues of

JPY160 million, bringing the company’s sales to above JPY100 million for the first

time in six periods. The company is making steady progress in raising funds to

develop products beyond the proof-of-concept stage (at which point effectiveness and

safety are confirmed) to the commercialization stage. As of the end of June 2017 the

company had cash reserves of JPY2,179 million, giving it the wherewithal to finance

development for approximately the next two years

MEDRx Income Staement

Unit: JPY mil.

2010/12 2011/12 2012/12 2013/12 2014/12 2015/12 2016/12 2017/12 2017/6

Company est. 2Q

Revenues 291 741 87 68 26 37 22 186 18

 Product sales 84 94 71 33 26 37 22 26 18

 R&D revenue 206 646 16 36 0 0 0 160 0

CoGS 58 34 33 8 9 12 8 4 4

SG&A expenses 857 1,141 621 664 1,020 1,025 1,357 1,443 528

R&D expenses 695 939 415 397 718 716 1,074 1,165 381

 Misc. expenses 162 202 206 267 302 309 283 278 147

Operating profit -623 -434 -567 -604 -1,003 -999 -1,342 -1,261 -514

Recurring profit -616 -479 -578 -616 -1,012 -990 -1,301 -1,244 -519

Net profit -536 -433 -571 -621 -1,016 -878 -1,259 -1,206 -477

Source: Fair Research Inc. using company data

MEDRx Balance Sheet

Unit: JPY mil.

2010/12 2011/12 2012/12 2013/12 2014/12 2015/12 2016/12 2017/6

IPO CB issue

Current assets 730 649 507 4,008 2,857 2,204 2,736 2,260

Cash etc. 691 614 465 3,937 2,780 2,063 2,640 2,179

Other 39 35 42 71 77 141 96 81

Fixed assets 335 304 280 722 831 774 342 316

Tangibles 265 240 215 256 346 278 264 239

Intangibles 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 1

Investments & others 89 64 65 465 483 494 77 76

Total assets 1,085 952 787 4,730 3,685 2,978 3,079 2,577

Liabilities 80 106 511 227 171 205 573 540

Current liabilities 64 79 450 158 79 110 103 70

Fixed liabilities 16 27 61 69 92 96 469 470

Net assets 1,005 847 275 4,503 3,514 2,772 2,507 2,037

Source: Fair Research Inc, using company data

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

5/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

We believe the decision to

terminate the development of

ETREAT does not necessarily

negate the effectiveness of this,

the company’s own technology

Implications of ETOREAT termination

ETOREAT (an anti-inflammatory analgesic patch) was the company’s most

promising large-scale formulation until, unfortunately, it was decided to terminate

development at the Phase 3 stage in November 2016. This product was directed at a

market estimated at around USD2-3 billion. Its effectiveness had been confirmed in

Phase 2/3 trials covering shoulder pain as early as November 2012, and from 2013

the plan was for another Phase 3 clinical trial to be conducted and then an application

for approval submitted. However, in the 2013-2014 trials, while PP analysis (per

protocol, including only those who completed the treatment) confirmed statistical

significance, ITT (intention to treat) analysis (which includes all patients, including

those who did not complete the treatment) did not so confirm. Agreement was reached

with the FDA for further trials to be conducted. These were trials for delayed onset

muscle symptoms in which healthy individuals were subjected to simulated muscle

pain. However, no statistically significant difference from those subjects receiving a

placebo was demonstrated.

The termination of ETOREAT’s development gave rise to a degree of uncertainty

about the efficacy of ILTS®, the company’s core technology. In their analysis of the

problem the company found no shortcomings in the ILTS® technology itself (elevated

concentration of the core drug in the blood), but since the main component of

ETOREAT, etodolac, is effective in the treatment of muscle inflammation it was

difficult to anticipate the Phase 3 results from the Phase 1 results (drug

concentration in the bloodstream). In addition, since it is a subjective condition, pain,

which is being tested, scores tend to be more affected by the placebo effect and by

“noise” (that is, it is difficult to judge whether pain has decreased not, a difficulty

generally experienced in the case of non-steroidal external medications).

The company believes that the effectiveness of drugs acting on the central nervous

system (oxycodone or tizanidine) rather than on the affected location can be more

easily measured from drug concentration in the bloodstream, thus allowing Phase 3

results to be inferred from Phase 1 results and facilitating the verification of ILTS®

effectiveness.

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

6/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

The company’s current pipeline

consists of three main products

Given the level of competition

in the lidocaine tape area the

company plans to license out

after FDA approval

Evaluation of the company’s existing pipeline

MEDRx’s three primary products are oxycodone tape (MRX-10XT), lidocaine tape

(MRX-5LBT), and tizanidine tape (MRZ-4TZT). Another product, MRX-5DML, for

the treatment of Alzheimer’s, is still being prepared for non-clinical trials.

(1) Lidocaine tape – MRX-5LBT

This tape formulation using lidocaine, a local anesthetic, is currently under

development as a treatment for nerve pain associated with shingles. Phase 1 was

completed in May 2016. It was demonstrated that the transdermal absorption

rate of lidocaine is quicker for this tape than for Lidoderm®, and also that the

area of application is half that of Lidoderm® but the volume of lidocaine which

permeates the subcutaneous tissue is around 2.6 times that of Lidoderm®.

However, a number of Lidoderm® generics have been commercialized and these

have reduced prices by about one-third in what was a roughly USD 1.2 billion

market. Prices have since flatlined. In addition, in August 2017, the American

company, Scilex Pharmaceuticals, sought new product approval for a formulation

which has the same biological characteristics as Lidoderm®. MEDRx is now

pursuing development with a view to making an early application for new drug

approval. Given this level of competition Fair Research is making a conservative

estimate of peak-level sales at several billion yen. Unlike tizanidine and

oxycodone, mentioned later, it is difficult to license out before Phase 1, so the

company is planning on finding a partner after approval.

Major Pipelines

Product name &

development codeNon-Clinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Application

Filed

MRX-4TZT

Tizanidine patch

for spatic paralysis

(Transdermal)

MRX-5LBT

Lidocaine patch

for treating nerve pain

(Topical)

MRX-1OXT

Oxycodone patch

for central nervous

system pain

(Transdermal)

In April 2017, concluded a development and sales licensing agreement with Cipla USA covering world except East Asia

Results pf Ph1 clinical trilas made known in May 2016. Aiming for early NDA approval

Entered Phase 1 clinical trials in 2017 Oct

Page 7: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

7/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

(2) Tizanidine tape MRX-4TZT

Tizanidine tape formulation uses the centrally acting muscle relaxant tizanidine

and, for transdermality, ILTS®. It is used to alleviate a number of conditions,

including neck pain. It acts on the brain/ central nervous system, unlike lidocaine

and ETOREAT, which act locally (peripheral nerves or muscle tissue). This

enhances the effective blood concentration level. The results of a Phase 1(a)

(investigation stage) clinical trial in the US in February 2017 confirmed that the

tape formulation maintained the same level of concentration in the blood as the

oral alternative, but with reduced side effects, such as drowsiness.

Source: MEDRx analyst meeting materials

The chart demonstrates that transdermal delivery provides a more stable and

sustained effective concentration than oral delivery and with fewer side-effects.

Tizanidine is currently only available in oral formulation and there are therefore

no rivals for the company’s tape formulation. The size of the US market was

Lid

oca

ine

con

cen

tratio

n

in h

um

an

blo

od

Hours

Fig. A Lidocaine concentration in human blood

for MRX-5LBT and Lidoderm®

Fig. B Vol. of lidocaine which permeates

subcutaneous tissue per unit area for MRX-

5LBT and Lidoderm® (inferred from Fig.A

data)

Lidocaine absorption rate

(cumulative) over 24 hours

Source: MEDRx analyst meeting materials

No rivals to the company’s

tape and patch formulations

Page 8: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

8/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

estimated at USD800 million in 2016, and the company thinks that about one-

third of this can be replaced with the tape formulation. In April 2017 the

company signed a worldwide (excluding East Asia) development and sales license

agreement with Cipla USA, the wholly owned US subsidiary of the major Indian

pharmaceuticals company, Cipla Inc. Under this agreement MEDRx will this

term receive a one-time contract payment of JPY160 million, and subsequently

will receive milestone payments to a maximum of USD30 million based on

progress with development and sales. The agreement also posits stepped

royalties based on sales after going to market. The company announced the

commencement of further Phase 1 testing on September 1, following which it

plans to shift to Phase 3.

In passing, according to its 2016 annual report Cipla has worldwide sales of

USD2.2 billion and a workforce of 23,000. In terms of domestic sales it is India’s

third largest. In generics in the US it ranks ninth in terms of prescriptions, and

while it intends to further build up its US generics business it does not intend to

be a generics-only pharmaceuticals company. Rather, it has a separate R&D

focus on innovative products and drug delivery systems to underpin sustainable

growth. It is worth noting that Cipla has recorded average annual sales growth

over the last five years of 15.3%. That MEDRx could sign a development and

sales agreement with a company like this is perhaps an indication of how highly

MEDRx’s technology is rated.

(3)Oxycodone Tape MRX-10XT

At the present this is the most promising drug in MEDRx’s product pipeline. The

North American market for opioids targeted at alleviating severe pain is

estimated by Grand View Research, Inc at USD 8.3 billion, or JPY913 billion

(2015 figures) and growing at an annualized rate of 5.4%. This product uses

ILTS® technology to provide a transdermal formulation of oxycodone, the opioid

which accounts for the largest share of the market. Like tizanidine it acts on the

Licensing out to Cipla

USA, the US subsidiary of

the major Indian drugs

firm, Cipla Inc. (April 2017)

The high regard in which

MEDRx’s technology is held

can be surmised

Source: Cipla Inc. Annual Report 2016

Has the biggest

potential in MEDRX’s

pipeline

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MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

9/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

brain/central nervous system, supporting pharmaceutically effective

concentration in the blood. Oxycodone tape formulation is expected not only to

encroach on the USD2.3 billion oxycodone market but could also replace some

other opioid formulations. Fair Research estimates there is the potential for peak

sales of around JPY 200-300 billion.

Note: opioid denotes a class of drugs with opium-like substances (but not

opium) containing morphine or other narcotic properties. They are widely

used in the treatment of medium to severe pain and also for anesthesia and

cough suppression.

In the United States the abuse and misuse of pharmaceuticals containing opioid

analgesics has become a social problem. It is now not difficult to acquire opioids

for the treatment of chronic pain on a doctor’s prescription, such that in 2014 two

million Americans abused or became dependent on such drugs. There were also

frequent cases of misuse. The FDA has therefore taken a cautious approach to

approving new drug applications for opioid formulations which are susceptible

to abuse. MEDRx has developed its own new formulation technology for

inhibiting and preventing abuse and misuse. Called the AMRTS® (Abuse and

Misuse Resist Transdermal System) it should give the company an advantage in

the market place. The System is now patent pending.

The company commenced non-clinical tests in November 2015 and consigned

production of the investigational drug to the US firm, Tapemark, in December.

The commencement of Phase 1 trials in the US was announced on October 16th

2017. In the case of the oxycodone tape formulation, the ailment indication is

chronic pain. At Phase 3 the number of cases and the cost per subject could rise

significantly (total development costs estimated at around JPY5-10 billion). As

was the case with tizanidine the company thinks that licensing out may be

possible at Phase 1, and apparently several approaches have already been made.

Given the size of the target market, milestone payments are likely to be

significantly bigger than was the case with tizanidine (totaling several tens of

billions of yen).

Acts on the brain/central

nervous system

Peak sales of JPY200

billion .possible

Company has its own

formulation technology to

prevent abuse and misuse –

provides a competitive

advantage

Commencement of Phase 1

announced on October 16.

Approaches already made on

licensing out

Development costs and

milestone income to be bigger

than for other pipeline drugs

Page 10: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

10/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

Pipeline Present Value

On the basis of the foregoing we have used a discounted cash flow methodology to

calculate the present value of the different drugs in the company’s product pipeline

(Note: The output values are the result of fairly ambitious multiple inputs and are

intended only as a yardstick)

(Assumptions used in the simulation)

It takes around 4-5 years from the product going to market for peak sales to be

achieved, following which sales fall at an annualized 5%. From 2035, however, given

the introduction of generics and other factors, sales are assumed to fall at a final-

stage annualized rate of 10%. The assumed discount rate is 12%. This may be on the

high side in light of the stock market’s required ROE of 8%, and the fact that the

company is regarded as a bio-venture which continues to chalk up losses and which

has not had a major commercial success to date. We are assuming royalty income will

be 12% of sales. In terms of the probability of success for each product in the

company’s pipeline we posit 30% for post-Phase 1 lidocaine, which acts on the

peripheral nerves, and 50% for tizanidine, which acts on the central nervous system.

Oxycodone is pre-Phase 1 so we posit its probability of success at 40%.

(Results of DCF Calculations)

Pipeline present value

(Unit: 100 mil.JPY)

Present value Excl final stage

Lidocaine tape 11.58 9.34

Incl. success probability 3.47 2.80

Tizanidine 139.36 129.16

Incl. success probability 69.68 64.58

Oxycodone 681.85 587.73

Incl. success probability 272.74 235.09

3 drug total 832.78 726.24

Incl. success probability 345.89 302.48

Source: Calculated by Fair Research Inc.

Pipeline present value using

DCF methodology

Page 11: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

11/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

① After factoring in its 30% probability of success we posit a present

value of around JPY 300 million for lidocaine tape, and given the level

of competition in this area it may only just recover its development

costs.

② For tizanidine tape formulation, after factoring in a 50% probability of

success in the market and including its final stage value we posit a

present value of JPY7 billion; and without this final stage around

JPY6.5 billion. This is roughly the same as, or slightly higher than,

MEDRx’s current market value.

③ Oxycodone tape’s value, given peak sales of JPY200 billion and a 50%

probability of success, we posit at JPY23.5-27.3 billion, making it the

most valuable product in the company’s pipeline (and assuming peak

sales for this product of JPY120 billion rather than JPY200 billion and

given the same 50% probability of success the pipeline present value

comes to JPY17.2-19.5 billion. While recognizing the failure of

ETOREAT and bearing in mind the difficulty of discounting in the

stock price the value of pre-Phase 1 oxycodone tape, we still believe it

is possible for the company’s evaluation to improve in line with its

product pipeline.

The market currently values MEDRx at around JPY6 billion, suggesting that a

reasonable degree of success from the tizanidine tape tie-up with Cipla has been

discounted. However, it seems that the value of the oxycodone tape formulation,

deemed the company’s most promising product, has not been similarly

discounted. We posit a total present value of close to JPY35 billion for the

company’s three main products, but believe the market could change its

valuation of MEDRx significantly if there is an improvement in the success

probability of tizanidine tape and progress in the development of the oxycodone

tape formulation.

(Note)

The original report (Japanese version) was issued on 16th October 2017.

Fair Research Inc.

AI Building, Kayabacho 5F, 1-6-12 Shinkawa

Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0033 JAPAN

Email: [email protected]

The company will be

fortunate to recover lidocaine

tape’s development costs

Tizanidine tape’s present

value given a 50%

probability of success in the

market we posit value at

around the same level as

MEDRx’s current market

cap

Assuming a success

probability of 40% our

calculation posits present

value for oxycodone tape in

the area of JPY20 billion

Market valuation of MEDRx

underpinned by value of

tizanidine tape which is

licensed out to Cipla.

Oxycodone could be next to

see its value discounted

Page 12: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

12/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

(reference)

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Page 13: 4586 TSE Big Gap Between Market Cap and Product Pipelinepdf.irpocket.com/C4586/PoNw/NlIj/xSeb.pdf · collection of licensing payments and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies

MEDRx Co., Ltd. (4586 Mothers) Issue Date: Nov. 7th 2017

13/13

This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. (Fair Research) for the purpose of providing information to investors, and not for solicitation of securities trading. Although this is based

on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Fair Research shall not take any responsibility

whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take their own responsibility for securities and other transactions. The

intellectual property right of this report belongs to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quote of any contents without permission is legally prohibited.

Disclaimer

□This report is prepared by Fair Research Inc. ("Fair Research") for the purpose of providing information to investors for fees

under a contract with a covered company, and not for solicitation of securities trading.

□Although, in preparing the report, Fair Research has obtained information through interviews with the covered company,

assumptions and views set forth in the report are not of the said company but are in principle based on analysis and evaluation by

Fair Research

□Although the report is written based on the information and materials that Fair Research judged reliable, there is no guarantee

of accuracy, credibility, completeness, suitability and timeliness. Also, views and forecasts set forth in the report represent

judgment by Fair Research at the time of issue of the report, and may be changed without notice.

□ Fair Research shall not take any responsibility whatsoever for any results including direct or indirect damage arising from the

use of, or reliance to, this report. Investors should take full responsibility for securities and other transactions.

□ The intellectual property rights of this report belong to Fair Research, and any copy, transmission or quotation of any contents

without permission is legally prohibited

Disclaimer