4-1 chapter 4 decision support and artificial intelligence brainpower for your business

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Chapter 4Chapter 4

Decision Support and Artificial Decision Support and Artificial IntelligenceIntelligence

Brainpower for Your BusinessBrainpower for Your Business

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Chapter OverviewChapter Overview Decisions, Decisions, DecisionsDecisions, Decisions, Decisions Decision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems Collaboration SystemsCollaboration Systems Geographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence Expert SystemsExpert Systems Neural NetworksNeural Networks Genetic AlgorithmsGenetic Algorithms Intelligent AgentsIntelligent Agents

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Opening Case StudyOpening Case StudyContinental Airlines Files High with Continental Airlines Files High with

Decision SupportDecision Support Continental implemented a decision Continental implemented a decision

support system to provide up-to-the-support system to provide up-to-the-minute flight information.minute flight information.

What other types of decision support What other types of decision support systems could Continental Airlines systems could Continental Airlines implement?implement?

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IntroductionIntroduction

Types of computer-aided decision support. Types of computer-aided decision support.

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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, DecisionsDecisions

How You Make a DecisionHow You Make a Decision

Four phases of decision makingFour phases of decision making1.1. IntelligenceIntelligence – find or recognize a problem, need, or – find or recognize a problem, need, or

opportunity.opportunity.

2.2. DesignDesign – consider ways to solve the problem, fill the – consider ways to solve the problem, fill the need, or take advantage of an opportunity.need, or take advantage of an opportunity.

3.3. Choice Choice – examine the merits of each solution, estimate – examine the merits of each solution, estimate the consequences of each, and choose the best one.the consequences of each, and choose the best one.

4.4. ImplementationImplementation – carry out the chosen solution, monitor – carry out the chosen solution, monitor the results, and make adjustments as necessary.the results, and make adjustments as necessary.

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Types of Decisions You FaceTypes of Decisions You Face Structured decision - Structured decision - processes a certain processes a certain

kind of information in a specified way so kind of information in a specified way so that you will always get the right answer. that you will always get the right answer.

Nonstructured decision - Nonstructured decision - one for which one for which there may be several “right” answers, and there may be several “right” answers, and there is no precise way to get a right there is no precise way to get a right answer. answer.

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Types of Decisions You FaceTypes of Decisions You Face

Recurring decisionRecurring decision - one that happens - one that happens repeatedly, and often periodically. repeatedly, and often periodically.

Nonrecurring decisionNonrecurring decision - one that you - one that you make infrequently. make infrequently.

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Decision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems

Decision support system (DSS)Decision support system (DSS) - highly flexible - highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support and interactive IT system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured. decision making when the problem is not structured.

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Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Components of a Decision Support SystemComponents of a Decision Support System

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Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Components of a Decision Support Components of a Decision Support

SystemSystem A typical DSS has three components:A typical DSS has three components:

Model management Model management - - consists of both the consists of both the DSS models and the DSS model DSS models and the DSS model management system. management system.

Data management -Data management - performs the function of performs the function of storing and maintaining the information that storing and maintaining the information that you want your DSS to use. you want your DSS to use.

User interface managementUser interface management - allows you to - allows you to communicate with the DSS. communicate with the DSS.

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Collaboration SystemCollaboration System

Collaboration systemCollaboration system – software that is – software that is designed specifically to improve the designed specifically to improve the performance of teams by supporting the sharing performance of teams by supporting the sharing and flow of information.and flow of information.

Lotus Notes and Microsoft Exchange.Lotus Notes and Microsoft Exchange.

Supply chain management means working with your Supply chain management means working with your suppliers and distributors in all phases of planning, suppliers and distributors in all phases of planning, production, and distribution.production, and distribution.

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Collaboration System Collaboration System

Web-based collaboration tools use the Web-based collaboration tools use the power of the Internet to enable people to power of the Internet to enable people to work together effectively and efficiently.work together effectively and efficiently.

The peer-to-peer file-sharing feature is The peer-to-peer file-sharing feature is combined with the ability to create and edit combined with the ability to create and edit documents collaboratively, and to send documents collaboratively, and to send and receive text and voice messages. and receive text and voice messages.

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Geographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems Geographic information system (GIS)Geographic information system (GIS) - -

a decision support system designed to a decision support system designed to work with spatial information. work with spatial information.

Spatial information is any information that Spatial information is any information that can be shown in map form, such as roads can be shown in map form, such as roads and the distribution of bald eagle and the distribution of bald eagle populations.populations.

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Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI)Artificial intelligence (AI) - the science - the science of making machines imitate human of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior. thinking and behavior.

RobotRobot - mechanical device equipped - mechanical device equipped with simulated human senses and the with simulated human senses and the capability of taking action on its own. capability of taking action on its own.

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Expert SystemsExpert Systems

Expert system, or knowledge-based system Expert system, or knowledge-based system - - artificial intelligence system that applies artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion. reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion.

Expert systems are well suited for problems that Expert systems are well suited for problems that are:are: Diagnostic (what’s wrong?)Diagnostic (what’s wrong?) Prescriptive (what to do?)Prescriptive (what to do?)

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Expert SystemsExpert SystemsComponents of an Expert SystemComponents of an Expert System

Information Information Domain expertise – Domain expertise – the reasoning process the reasoning process

that will solve the problem.that will solve the problem. Problem facts – the particulars of the current Problem facts – the particulars of the current

situation.situation. ““Why” information – the explanation of how Why” information – the explanation of how

the expert system asked a question or the expert system asked a question or reached a conclusion.reached a conclusion.

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People People Domain expertDomain expert - provides the domain - provides the domain

expertise in the form of problem-solving expertise in the form of problem-solving strategies. strategies.

Knowledge engineer – Knowledge engineer – IT specialistIT specialist who who formulates the domain expertise into an formulates the domain expertise into an expert system. expert system.

Knowledge worker or user - that’s you.Knowledge worker or user - that’s you.

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IT ComponentsIT Components Knowledge baseKnowledge base - stores the rules. - stores the rules. Knowledge acquisitionKnowledge acquisition – used to – used to

enter the rules. enter the rules. Inference engineInference engine - takes the problem - takes the problem

facts and searches the knowledge facts and searches the knowledge base for rules that fit. base for rules that fit.

User interface – runs the consultation. User interface – runs the consultation. Explanation moduleExplanation module – where – where

information is stored.information is stored.

On Your Own

Traffic LightsRevisited(p. 199)(p. 199)

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Neural NetworksNeural Networks

Neural networkNeural network (often called an (often called an artificial artificial neural networkneural network oror ANNANN) - an artificial ) - an artificial intelligence system that is capable of intelligence system that is capable of finding and differentiating patterns. finding and differentiating patterns.

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Neural Networks Neural Networks Types of Neural NetworksTypes of Neural Networks

Self-organizing neural Self-organizing neural networknetwork - - finds patterns and finds patterns and relationships in vast amounts relationships in vast amounts of data by itself. of data by itself.

Back-propagation neural Back-propagation neural network - network - a neural network a neural network trained by someone. trained by someone.

Team Work

How Would YouClassify People?

(p. 202)(p. 202)

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Genetic AlgorithmsGenetic Algorithms

Genetic algorithmGenetic algorithm - - an artificial intelligence an artificial intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasingly the-fittest process to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem. better solutions to a problem.

Genetic algorithms use three concepts of Genetic algorithms use three concepts of evolution:evolution: SelectionSelection Crossover Crossover MutationMutation

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Genetic AlgorithmsGenetic Algorithms

Team Work

Be a GeneticAlgorithm and Put

Nails in Boxes(p. 206)(p. 206)

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Intelligent AgentsIntelligent Agents

Intelligent agentIntelligent agent - software that assists - software that assists you, or acts on your behalf, in performing you, or acts on your behalf, in performing repetitive computer-related tasks. repetitive computer-related tasks.

Four types of intelligent agents include:Four types of intelligent agents include: Buyer agents or shopping botsBuyer agents or shopping bots User or personal agentsUser or personal agents Monitoring-and-surveillance or predictive agentsMonitoring-and-surveillance or predictive agents Data-mining agentsData-mining agents

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents Buyer AgentsBuyer Agents

Buyer agentBuyer agent or or shopping botshopping bot - an - an intelligent agent on a Web site that helps intelligent agent on a Web site that helps the customer find products and services.the customer find products and services.

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents Buyer AgentsBuyer Agents

Types of filtering include:Types of filtering include: Collaborative filteringCollaborative filtering Profile filteringProfile filtering Psychographic filteringPsychographic filtering Adaptive filteringAdaptive filtering

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents User AgentsUser Agents

User agentsUser agents (sometimes called (sometimes called personal agents) - personal agents) - intelligent agents that intelligent agents that take action on your take action on your behalf. behalf.

On Your Own

Go BargainHunting Online

(p. 209)(p. 209)

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents Monitoring-and-Surveillance AgentsMonitoring-and-Surveillance Agents

Monitoring-and-surveillance agentsMonitoring-and-surveillance agents (also called (also called predictive agents) - predictive agents) - observe observe and report on equipment. and report on equipment.

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents Data-Mining AgentsData-Mining Agents

Data-mining agentData-mining agent - operates in a data - operates in a data warehouse discovering information. warehouse discovering information.

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Intelligent Agents Intelligent Agents Components of an Intelligent AgentComponents of an Intelligent Agent

AutonomyAutonomy - act without your telling them - act without your telling them every step to take. every step to take.

AdaptivityAdaptivity - discovering, learning, and - discovering, learning, and taking action independently. taking action independently.

SociabilitySociability - conferring with other agents. - conferring with other agents.

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Closing Case StudiesClosing Case Studies

Using Neural Networks To Categorize PeopleUsing Neural Networks To Categorize People How accurate is it for a business to predict the future How accurate is it for a business to predict the future

behavior of customers on the basis of past behavior?behavior of customers on the basis of past behavior?

Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence in Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence in Health CareHealth Care How can DSS and AI be used to track a huge amount How can DSS and AI be used to track a huge amount

of qualitative and quantitative information on patients of qualitative and quantitative information on patients and employees?and employees?

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Visit the Web to Learn MoreVisit the Web to Learn Morewww.mhhe.com/haagwww.mhhe.com/haag

Learning about investingLearning about investing Researching the company behind the Researching the company behind the

stockstock Finding other sources of company Finding other sources of company

financialsfinancials Making trades onlineMaking trades online Retrieving stock quotesRetrieving stock quotes Computer-aided decision supportComputer-aided decision support

4-1 chapter 4 decision support and artificial intelligence brainpower for your business

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