Types of Decisions The Decision-Making Process IT Brainpower How IT Brainpower Supports the

Decision-Making Process

Introduction

DECISION SUPPORT AND DECISION SUPPORT AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Brainpower for Your BusinessBrainpower for Your Business

TYPES OF DECISIONS YOU FACETYPES OF DECISIONS YOU FACE

STRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with a set of steps that guarantee the correct solution.

NONSTRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with no rules or criteria that guarantee a good solution.

Types of Decisions

RECURRING DECISIONS - those you make repeatedly, often periodically.

NONRECURRING DECISIONS - those you make infrequently, perhaps only once.

PHASES OF THE DECISION-PHASES OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSMAKING PROCESS

1. INTELLIGENCE -Find what to fix

2. DESIGN - Find fixes

3. CHOICE - Pick a fix

4. IMPLEMENTATION - Apply the fix

The Decision-Making Process

TYPES OF IT BRAINPOWERTYPES OF IT BRAINPOWER

Decision Support Systems (DSS) Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Artificial Intelligence Systems (AI)

– Expert Systems– Neural Networks– Genetic Algorithms– Intelligent Agents

IT Brainpower

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS)(DSS)

DSS

is a highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support decision making

when the problem is not structured.

A DSS assists you in making a decision, as opposed to making the decision for you.

A DSS Can Help With Analysis A DSS Can Help With Analysis Tasks LikeTasks Like

Deciding where to spend advertising dollars

Analyzing sales trend information Analyzing drug interactions Developing airline schedules Pricing products

DSS

A DSS Has Three ComponentsA DSS Has Three Components DATA MANAGEMENT - to allow you to

store and access information. MODEL MANAGEMENT - to allow you

to store and access models. USER INTERFACE MANAGEMENT -

to allow you to easily manipulate information and models.

DSS

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSSSTEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSS1.INTELLIGENCE

– Do you need a DSS?– What should it do?– What does it need?

2.DESIGN– What can you buy/build?

3.CHOICE– What will you buy/build?

4.IMPLEMENTATION– Build or install DSS– Learn, test, and evaluate the DSS

DSS5-11

A GROUP DECISION SUPPORT A GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (GDSS)SYSTEM (GDSS)

GDSS

is a type of decision support system that facilitates the formulation of and solution to

problems by a team.

A GDSS helps a team to generate ideas, identify strengths and weaknesses, choose an alternative, and reach a consensus.

A GDSS Can Help With Team A GDSS Can Help With Team Tasks LikeTasks Like

Determining new product design Evaluating the impact of new

competition Formulating a strategic plan

GDSS

THE STEPS OF GROUP THE STEPS OF GROUP DECISION MAKINGDECISION MAKING

1.Brainstorming - generate ideas

2.Issue Categorization and Analysis - classify ideas

3.Ranking and Voting - prioritize alternatives, reach consensus

GDSS

See Figure 5.9, page 174

PEOPLE IN A GDSSPEOPLE IN A GDSS

Team: People united by a common goal GDSS facilitator has two roles

– Nontechnical: run the meeting– Technical: operate IT components

GDSS

IT TOOLS IN A GDSSIT TOOLS IN A GDSS

Groupware - software than enables team work

DSS Capabilities - software that enables team decision making

Telecommunications - hardware and software that connect computers

GDSS

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS)SYSTEM (GIS)

GDSS

is a decision support system designed specifically to work with spatial information.

A GIS represents information thematically in overlapping layers, each of which shows a different aspect of the total picture.

A GIS Can Help With Spatial A GIS Can Help With Spatial Analysis Tasks LikeAnalysis Tasks Like

Identifying the best site to locate a branch office

Targeting pockets of potential customers Repositioning promotions and advertising

GDSS

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)

AI

is the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior.

AI helps machines perform tasks that require complex and varying sets of steps such as retrieving debris from the ocean floor.

TYPES OF AI USED IN TYPES OF AI USED IN BUSINESSBUSINESS

EXPERT SYSTEMS NEURAL NETWORKS GENETIC ALGORITHMS INTELLIGENT AGENTS

AI

70% of the top 500 companies use AI as part of decision support.

AN EXPERT SYSTEMAN EXPERT SYSTEM

Expert System

is an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion.

An expert system captures expertise from a human expert and applies it to a problem.

Auditing and tax planning Diagnosing illnesses Managing forest resources

WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN DODO

• Handle massive amounts of information

• Reduce errors• Improve customer

service

Expert System

•Provide consistency in decision making

•Provide new information

•Reduce costs

WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN’T WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN’T DODO

Handle all types of domain expertise Solve problems other than those for which

they are designed Apply common sense or judgment to a

problem

Expert System

A NEURAL NETWORKA NEURAL NETWORK

Neural Network

is an artificial intelligence system which is capable of learning because it’s patterned

after the human brain.

A neural network simulates the human ability to classify things based on the experience of seeing many examples.

A Neural Network Can Perform A Neural Network Can Perform Pattern Recognition Tasks LikePattern Recognition Tasks Like

Distinguishing different chemical compounds Detecting anomalies in human tissue that may

signify disease Reading handwriting Detecting fraud in credit card use

Neural Network

A GENETIC ALGORITHMA GENETIC ALGORITHMis an artificial intelligence system that

mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest processes to generate increasingly

better solutions to a problem.

Genetic Algorithm

Genetic algorithms produce several generations of solutions, choosing the best of the current set for each new generation.

A Genetic Algorithm Can A Genetic Algorithm Can Generate Lots of Solutions As InGenerate Lots of Solutions As In

Generating human faces based on a few known features.

Generating solutions to routing problems. Generating stock portfolios.

Genetic Algorithm

AN INTELLIGENT AGENTAN INTELLIGENT AGENT

Intelligent Agent

is an artificial intelligence system that can move around your computer or network performing

repetitive tasks independently, adapting itself to your preferences.

An intelligent agent is like a travel agent in that it performs tasks that you stipulate.

An Intelligent Agent Can Perform An Intelligent Agent Can Perform Tasks LikeTasks Like

Acting as a personal electronic assistant to collect, send, and prioritize electronic information such as e-mail.

Finding and retrieving information from a database. Finding and retrieving information across networks.

Intelligent Agent

How Does an Intelligent Agent How Does an Intelligent Agent Do That?Do That?

Intelligent Agent

An intelligent agent (usually) combines the capabilities of two or more of the most modern software technologies such as expert systems,

neural networks, genetic algorithms, object-oriented programming, and so on.

AI

AI System

Expert Systems

Neural Networks

Genetic Algorithms

Intelligent Agents

Problem Type

Diagnostic or prescriptive

Identification, classification, prediction

Optimal solution

Specific and repetitive tasks

Based On

Strategies of experts

The human brain

Biological evolution

One or more AI techniques

Starting Information

Expert’s know-how

Acceptable patterns

Set of possible solutions

Your preferences

AI SYSTEMS CAN BE AI SYSTEMS CAN BE COMBINED WITH DECISION COMBINED WITH DECISION

SUPPORT SYSTEMSSUPPORT SYSTEMS DSSs can incorporate one or more expert systems

creating an intelligent DSS, a DSS/ES, or a knowledge-based DSS.

Neural networks can be combined with GISs to apply pattern recognition capabilities to spatial information.

IT Brainpower

A HYBRID INTELLIGENT A HYBRID INTELLIGENT SYSTEMSYSTEM

Neural networks and expert systems can be combined to create a “trainable” expert system.

Neural networks and genetic algorithms can be combined to train neural networks.

IT Brainpower

is an IT system which combines two or more artificial intelligence systems.