Forecasting the Emergence of Technological Discontinuities:

The Case of Three Dimensional Liquid Crystal Display Televisions

Ng Pei SinG0903130@nus.edu.sg

Supervisor: Dr Jeffrey Lee FUNKMay 2011

∗ Advances in Science Lead to Emergence of Technological Discontinuities∗ Henderson and Clark, 1990; Anderson and Tushman, 1990; Tushman and

Anderson, 1986∗ Alternative Explanation

∗ In addition to advances in science, complementary technologies are needed (Rosenberg, 1982; 1994)

∗ For example, improvements in magnetic recording density for audio and video recording systems (Funk, 2009) and ICs for computers (Funk, 2009) were needed

What about three dimensional liquid crystal display (LCD) televisions? This presentation will show how improvements in LCDs have made the science of 3D television possible

Conventional Wisdom

2D Television to 3D DisplaysImprovement of display∗Increased Frame-Rate∗Increased panel pixel count and density per area∗Ease of application of optical filter on flat panels

Ease of producing 3D Contents ∗Standardization and Digitalization of 3D format∗improved GPU performance and software algorithm∗Larger cheaper digital storage

Improved 3D Contents delivery∗Digital Television Broadcast∗Internet Broadband Bandwidth Growth∗Increased popularity of Internet VideoSource: “Future TV's Direction of Evolution”, Sue Chung,

Displaybank, July 2009, http://www.displaybank.com

Motion Images (Black & White)

Color motion images

Larger display

High Definition, Less space

3D HD

Milestones:• 1900s: Black & White CRT• 1950s: Color Display• 2000s: Larger, slimmer High-definition Liquid

Crystal Displays (LCD)• 2010s: 3D HD LCD

LCD replaces CRT∗ Improvement in liquid crystal enable its use in display panels

∗ LCDs (liquid crystal displays) are now the dominant form of television

Total display shipped by Display Area. Source: “Flat Panel Display Materials - Trends and Forecasts 2009”, Fuji Chimera Research Institute, InterLingua, 2008

Improvement of Displays∗ Increased Color Spectrum & Color graduation

∗ An important aspect of display performance, trend towards Natural color realism∗ Implies that 3D implementation should be color neutral, and does not cause color

distortion of images.

∗ Increased Display Size and Flat Panel advantages∗ Wider coverage of viewing area; better viewing immersion∗ Adoption of 16:9 wide screen format used in cinema; simplification of display format∗ Flat panel of LCD facilitate the use of high-precision optical filters

Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV

∗ Larger yet Cheaper Displays∗ Nishimura’s Law and Odawara’s Law

indicates that increasing size of substrate used in panels results in reduction in cost of making each panel

∗ Indicates increasing returns to scale of LCD production, resulting in cheaper, larger panels.

Increased Frame-Rate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970s 1995 2008 2010

CRT

LCD

OLED/Plasma

∗ Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived effect) – 60Hz. ∗ Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos

∗ Increased Frame-rate of Display ∗ Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point

∗ Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content

∗ Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time

120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D

Fram

e pe

r se

cond

s (H

z)

Display Frame-Rate

∗ Improved Panel Pixel count gives sharper images and finer image details∗ Standard-Definition (0.3 million pixel per

frame), to∗ High-Definition (2.1 million pixel per frame) ∗ emerging QFHD (Qual Full High Definition -

8.3 million pixel per frame)∗ Pixel density in mobile display improved

from 96 pixel-per-inch (ppi) in 2002 to 192 ppi in 2010

Increased Panel Pixel-Count and density

Source: US Display Consortium (USDC), http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html

∗Kitihara’s Law on development of flat panel displays, pixel count increase by four-times every 3 years∗Increased pixel count facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic displays

∗ Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D films

∗ Standardization of format reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats, improving economy of scale of producing 3D contents

∗ Digital 3D format standardize on MPEG-4 video compression by extending MPEG-4 compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding

∗ Improvement in MPEG-4 video compression efficiency achieve only 50% increase in compressed bitrate for twice the amount of uncompressed stereoscopic contents

“Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural

Standardization and Digitization of Video Format

∗ Improved algorithm enables rendering of existing 3D models for 3D displays with little or no modification, increasing pool of 3D contents and 3D video games

∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films (live-action), 3D computer-animation, 3D Video Games

∗ Improved software algorithm enables 2D contents to be converted to 3D, adding to the pool of 3D contents

Improved ease of producing contents in 3D

http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html“NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf

∗ Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:∗ Acceleration of MPEG4 video compression (more computational demanding)∗ Rendering of more realistic computer animation animated with 3D modeling technique

(enables use of more polygon count and motion control points)∗ Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays (stereoscopic output

requires twice the computation)∗ Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens

presentation, increasing contents in 3D

Larger Cheaper Digital Storage

∗ Video streams, even after compression, takes up significant storage space: ∗ DVD Disc (MPEG-2): ~2 hours (720i) at

4Gigabytes∗ Blue-ray (MPEG-4): 9 hours of HD video on

a 50GB disc∗ Cheaper, high-density digital storage brings

down cost of recording and storage of video∗ Larger storage capacity permits higher video

encoding bitrate, resulting in higher quality images

∗ Improvement in video compression efficiency, faster video processor, and larger storage space facilitate handling and processing of high bitrate 3D HD content

∗ Leverage on existing digital format used by High-Definition Video ease delivery of 3D contents

Source: http://www.videophill.com

Digital Broadcast∗ To support digital HD content, Digital broadcast replaces analogue broadcast:

∗ DVB/T (Europe), ATSC (USA, Canada), ISDB-T (South America), DMB-T/H (China), etc∗ digital bitrate from 4 to 32Mbps bitrate per TV channel with MPEG-4 video compression∗ MPEG-4 are “3D ready”, able to carry MPEG-4 MVC 3D encoding

∗ Digital broadcast support carrying of stereoscopic contents

Improved Distribution of 3D contents

Growth of Internet Bandwidth∗Internet broadband Bandwidth growth to exceed Digital Broadcasting∗According to Nielsen’s Law of Internet Bandwidth, high-end internet user’s connection speed grows by 50% annually, or double every 21 months∗High-quality 3D HD streams average about 40Mbps∗Internet bandwidth for high-end users should exceed 40Mbps by 2011∗This enables high-quality 3D-HD streaming application over internet∗Increasing popularity of video sharing websites like YouTube™ enables distribution of digital content via Internet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakob_Nielsen_(usability_consultant)#cite_note-1 ,

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html

Impact of Improvements on Displaying 3D

∗ Stereoscopic techniques:1. Time-sequential 3D with active 3D glasses2. Time-sequential 3D with passive 3D glasses3. Auto-stereoscopic 3D

∗ Fundamental Improvements:∗ Increased frame-rate enables time-sequential 3D∗ Increased pixel density enables auto-stereoscopic 3D

Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses

∗ Improved liquid crystal materials and reduced cell-gap shorten LC response-time enables higher shutter rate in active 3D glasses.

∗ Use of low-voltage, thin-nematic LC structure enables application in battery-power shutter glasses.

∗ Performance surplus of display frame-rate enables time-sequential 3D

∗ Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time enables:∗ High frame-rate in LCD displays, ∗ High frame-rate active 3D glasses

∗ Economical: Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel.

∗ Liquid crystal Electronic polarized filter added in front of time-sequential display to polarizes emitted images

∗ Polarized images is filtered by polarized eyewear to the respective eyes of viewer

∗ Cheaper glasses: Active shutter glasses retails at US$100 per pair, while “passive” polarize-filter glasses cost US$10

∗ Cheaper “passive” eyewear as it does not use battery, or electronic circuitry – only polarized lens

∗ More comfortable as it is smaller and lighter

Source: US patent 7477206, "Enhanced ZScreen modulator techniques", issued January 13, 2009, assigned to RealD

Time-sequential 3D with passive eyewear

∗ Flat Panel enable use of high-precision optical filters∗ Flat and thin LCD glass plate allow close placement of lenticular array minimizing

optical distortion∗ Accurate placement of LCD pixels allow precise alignment of lenticular array, or

parallax barrier∗ Uniform brightness of each pixel reduces angular variation in brightness

∗ Further, auto-stereoscopy requires multiple pairs of viewing zones to allow some head movement, requires even more pixels count to maintain image resolution

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays

∗ Does not require special 3D glasses∗ Panel pixels are divides into two groups -- one for left-eye

images, another for right-eye images∗ A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone∗ Due to pixel division, increase pixel-density improves 3D

image resolution

∗ Improved display performance with increased 3D depth-perception makes better 3D displays that provide superior content immersion and entertainment value.

∗ Time-sequential 3D displays can be economically implemented by leveraging improved frame-rate of LCD panels

∗ Further reduction in cost can be achieved with the use of electronic polarized filter and low-cost polarized 3D glasses

∗ Improvement in pixel-density of pocket-size panels enabled implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D displays with acceptable compromise in image resolution.

∗ However, implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D panels in television requires further improvement in pixel-density of TV-sized LCD panels.

Improved 3D Displays

Improved Availability of 3D Contents

∗ Increased in 3D movies∗ In 2010, more than 500 3D PC games titles were

listed on Nvidia’s 3D Vision website. http://www.nvidia.com/object/3d-vision-3d-games.html

∗ Availability of 3D contents directly affects value of 3D displays to customers

∗ Availability is improved with increased 3D contents and better content delivery

∗ Increased 3D contents due to ease of producing contents in 3D, more sources of 3D contents (Digital 3D movies, 3D games)

∗ Delivery of 3D contents is facilitated by leveraging off advancement made with digital HD distribution

Television-Size displays:∗Inconvenience of 3D Glasses poses as near-term hindrance∗3D benefits for content immersion varies with type of contents∗Inconvenience of eyewear causes user to be more selective of 3D contents∗Contents that benefits from 3D most like to offset cost of 3D production, causing certain types of content to be produced, thus limiting availability of 3D contents

∗Auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will broaden consumer preference for 3D contents∗Further improvement of 3D displays is required to make 3D more convenient and comfortable to use

Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Displays

Reference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,

Pocket-Size displays:∗Improved pixel-density of portable display enables auto-stereoscopy in mobile displays∗Portable auto-stereoscopic displays is likely to be used in 3D handheld gaming consoles, while diffusion to other devices like mobile phones requires further cost reduction of 3D displays∗This is because incremental cost of auto-stereoscopic displays is better justified in handheld gaming consoles by the benefits for content immersion.∗In the event that incremental cost of 3D displays is significantly reduced, diffusion of mobile-sized 3D display is expected to exponentially increase

Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Displays

Reference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,

Conclusion

∗ 3D improved visual immersion of content, makes content more realistic and enjoyable∗ Consumer 3D displays improve accessibility to 3D contents (previously found only in 3D

cinema)∗ Enable consumer to watch 3D movies beyond 3D cinema, and 3D games to be enjoyed

∗ Development of 3D displays leverage off improvement in 2D displays and related improvements in content creation and delivery∗ Advances in liquid crystal and increased pixel density of panel enables 3D displays ∗ Complementary technologies enable creation and distribution of 3D contents

∗ However, the need for 3D glasses limits growth of 3D displays∗ Further improvement of 3D displays is required for 3D technology to diffuse significantly

Thank you

Evolution of 3D Films and Technological Discontinuities

1895 1920 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Proprietary Film-Projector systems

Several dominant Projector systems

Film format Standardized to 16,35,70m films

Digital Formats

CRT

Threatre Presentation

Commercial Television

Distribution

Flat-panels

CRT compatible Analog Broadcast

Digital Broadcast

Digital Projection Systems

Tape-based content & players Digital Disc & playersDigital Broadband

Digital EncodingSignal Encoding

Mobile Data

Commercial Content Format

3D HDHD

Color SDGrayscale

Analog Encoding

Cinema Films

∗ Principle of Depth-Perception (3D): Stereopsis –slightly different images is transmitted to each eye of an observer creating an illusion of increased depth.

∗ 3 Primary methods of increasing depth-perception and state of development:∗ 1. Co-located Pixels: Anaglyph, Polarized (1950s)

∗ The pixel for left and right images overlay in space at the same time∗ Realized with dual-color filtered projectors and color-filtered 3D glasses, or dual

polarize-filtered projectors with metallic screen and polarized glasses∗ Poor result due to color cross-talk between images

∗ 2. Time-Sequential: Shutter, Polarized (2009)∗ Image for left and right eyes are displayed one after another at high frame rate∗ Realized with high frame rate shutters placed between screen and observer∗ Lack of high-frequency shutter technology prior 2009

∗ 3. Spatial Separation: Lenticular, Barrier-Grid (Emerging)∗ Pixels for each eye is slightly separated in space∗ Realized by with high resolution panel using high-precision optics to separate images

for each eye∗ Lack of high-resolution panels

∗ Of the above methods, each consists of a display and some form of optical filter

Improved Depth-Perception

Required Pixel density of Auto-stereoscopic panels

∗ Auto-stereoscopy is more suitable for mobile display due to more predictable viewing distance than TV panels

∗ Increased resolution facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D display in mobile devices; Pixel-density of pocket-sized panels has doubled to 192dpi in 2010

∗ In 2011, Nintendo launched the first handheld gaming console featuring an auto-stereoscopic 3D display for 3D gaming

Auto-Stereoscopic 3D in Mobile Display

Larger yet cheaper panelsNishimura’s Law:∗The size of substrate used grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years, Doubles every 3.6 years∗Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)∗Continued growth will drive further reductions in the cost of large displays

Odawara’s Law:∗Predicts increasing returns to scale∗Doubling in the cumulative area of flat panels produced results in a cost reduction of 22 to 23%∗(Large panels are then cut into consumer product size)

Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)

Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV

∗ Trend indicates that increasing size of substrate used in panels results in reducing cost of production, thus increasing returns to scale of FPD production.

∗ Production cost reduces with increased cumulative area of flat panels resulting in cheaper, larger panels.

ASP

$

∗ Uncompressed video bitrate of 3D HD can be 25 times higher than SD (TV) video

∗ More efficient video compression algorithm, faster video processor, and larger storage space is required to support increased video bitrate of 3D HD content

∗ Latest MPEG4 AVC standard is estimated to be 7 times more efficient than MPEG-2 for a 2D video

∗ MPEG 4 algorithm is more computational complex than earlier MPEG2 compression algorithm; better computation speed is necessary for real-time implementation of MPEG4 compression than prior compression algorithm

Improved Digital Video Compression Algorithm

Source: [1] “MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 Video Codecs Comparison”, Full version of report, Dmitriy Vatolin, CS MSU Graphics&Media Lab, May 2009

[2] “Beyond MPEG-4”, Ken McCann, CSI Magazone, Oct 2010, http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Beyond-MPEG4.php#[3] “Blue-ray 3D Disc specification finalized”, Lucas Mearian, Computerworld, Dec 2009

Higher Video Compression efficiency (MPEG4 MVC)

Increased computation complexity (need faster processor)

∗ MPEG-4 Multiview Video Coding (MVC) was standardized in 2009 for stereoscopic video. MVC extension encode stereoscopic video (twice the uncompressed bitrate of 2D video) into typically 50% more bitrate than compressed 2D video stream, effectively reducing uncompressed bitrate of stereoscopic video

∗ however, this alone is insufficient to handle the 25 times increase in uncompressed video bitrate; larger storage is required

A given sample video encoded at 30-35db PSNR:MPEG-2: 1600kbpsMPEG-4: 250kbps

Polygon count growth, motion control point growth, and the Reality Threshold (Smith). Alvy Ray Smith of Microsoft/Pixar has estimated that the "reality threshold" (simulations indistinguishable from ordinary human vision) is 80 million polygons per frame, and on the order of a million motion control points on the objects within our field of view.

Polygon count generated by leading video game hardware doubles roughly every 2 years. If these trends continue, the reality threshold may be achieved in 2014.

Improved Reality Threshold of Computer-generated animation

From: metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html. http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/resources.html

Improved 3D Environmental Modeling Technique

∗ Computer games today often use GPU-assisted 3D environmental modeling techniques to achieve more realistic visual effects.

∗ For example, in 3D light rendering technique (3D modeling) computer hardware helps to reproduce more realistic light reflection on complex texture like water, leaves, skin, or cloth.

∗ These computer graphics may be modeled in 3D but had to be converted to 2D to fit most display panels.

∗ Advancement in finalization phrase conversion enables 3D models to be converted for stereoscopic 3D displays

∗ Existing 3D models used in video games can easily be converted for 3D

3D Modelling,animation

Finalization for 2D display•One video stream is rendered

Finalization for 3D display•Render for stereoscopic video

streams

2D Display-TV-PC Monitors-Mobile phone3D animation techniques

•Light rendering•Gravity simulation•Hair movement•etc

3D Display-TV-PC Monitors-Mobile-3D Glasses

∗ Besides 3D recording of performing actors, computer animation is gaining acceptance with audience

∗ 3D modeling is commonly used in 3D games and computer animated films∗ Improved Reality Threshold of Computer-generated animation:

∗ Increased polygon count in 3D modeling and motion control points improves realism of computer animation (artificial simulation vs. live-action).

∗ Mature 3D modeling techniques makes it easy to create 3D content for 3D displays

∗ Existing 3D models can be easily rendered for 3D display

3D Games and Computer Animation

Ease of Producing 3D Contents

∗ Convergence and standardization of 3D formats from competing proprietary systems∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films (live-action), 3D Video Games, 3D computer-

animation∗ Improved 3D hardware∗ Improved realism of computer-generated animation with 3D modeling techniques

∗ Ease of converting existing 2D contents into 3D

Improved Distribution of 3D contents

Increased popularity of Internet Video∗ Increasing popularity of video sharing websites like YouTube™ enables distribution of

digital content via Internet∗ Internet is increasingly available in multitude of battery powered mobile devices.

Mobile broadband provide Internet connectivity to mobile users∗ Mobile devices with auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will be able to show 3D content

from the Internet, increasing audience of 3D contents

∗ In 2009, active 3D shutter glasses was introduced in cinema. This system is popular as 3D conversion cost of 2D cinema is relative low compared to prior proprietary systems.

∗ 3D-capable cinema doubled between 2008 and 2009

∗ Similar 3D shutter glasses system is adopted for LCD displays enabling 3D films to be shown on home television, expanding market of 3D films beyond the cinema screens

∗ Growth of 3D cinema together with growth of 3D displays increases market size of 3D films, encourages more 3D film to be produced

∗ Increases in 3D market size improves economy of scale of production of 3D films as films reaches a larger pool of viewers

Increased market size for 3D Films

Growth of 3D-capable cinema. Source “Cinema industry moving to 3D. Sony corp. http://www.sony.net/united/3D/static/technology/digital_cinema/digital_cinema01.html

Growth of 3D Displays. Source: “DisplaySearch forecasts 38 percent CAGR for stereoscopic 3D display revenues”, EE Times, 1/5/2010, http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4196659/DisplaySearch-forecasts-38-percent-CAGR-for-stereoscopic-3D-display-revenues

∗ Implementation of Time-sequential 3D system in LCD displays enabling 3D films for cinema to be shown on home television

∗ Expanding market of 3D films beyond the cinema screens improves economy of scale of production of 3D films, encourages more 3D films to be made

∗ Increasing amount of 3D content encourage diffusion of 3D displays, which shares similar digital format used in 3D cinema

∗ While 3D shutter glasses cost $100 each, emerging improvement is being developed for 3D display to use $10 polarized 3D glasses reducing the cost of 3D glasses required, lowering cost of 3D display

∗ Yet, eyewear-based solution is a hindrance to widespread adoption of 3D displays

Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Display

∗ Auto-stereoscopy 3D displays do away with 3D glasses providing a more comfortable and natural viewing experience

∗ High pixel count of panels is required by Auto-stereoscopy to create 3D viewing area where viewers has to be positioned

∗ However, pixel count of television-size panels has not reach the level necessary for auto-stereoscopy; Ultra-High resolution television-sized panels are expected to become available in 2016

∗ In the mean time, pixel density of portable display has reach a level good enough for auto-stereoscopy 3D

Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Display

∗ Auto-stereoscopy is increasingly adopted in small, high pixel density screens, e.g. Nintendo 3DS

∗ Diffusion of 3D displays is likely to occur concurrently first with two stereoscopic systems: 1. time-sequential 3D on television-

size panels, 2. Auto-stereoscopic 3D on 3D

mobile display ∗ Eventually, 3D displays is likely to

convergence towards auto-stereoscopic systems

Growth of 3D Display

∗ Wide-spread diffusion is expected with the convergence towards Auto-stereoscopic 3D displays

Active Shutter 3D Glasses for consumers

Time-sequential Polarized 3D Glasses for consumers

Auto-stereoscopic 3D display (no eyewear)

Time

3D Displays Diffusion

2010 2016Auto-stereoscopic 3D display (no eyewear)