34129009 climate change and implications for humanitarian action 29 april 08

8/9/2019 34129009 Climate Change and Implications for Humanitarian Action 29 April 08

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2

Climate Change

• A growing globalconsensus that human

activities are leadingto Climate Change

• The poor are the leastequipped to tackleClimate Change and

hence will bedisproportionatelyaffected in adverse

ways

http://www.tearfund.org/NR/rdonlyres/D3DE3D45-415F-4726-8E7C-10642FA00F47/0/NGR21425_400.jpg



3

World Vision’s View• Since the poor are most VULNERABLE

and least able to ADAPT to ClimateChange, WV must be involved

•

The poor can gain access to a multi-billion

dollar carbon credit market. They can: –

Participate and benefit from these markets

–

Have a significant impact on the reduction of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere

• Corporations, churches, and individualscan exercise their environmentalresponsibilities in a way that also alleviatespoverty



4

The CPR Initiative•

Ensure participation of the poor in theemerging carbon market

–

Provide access to carbon credits

– Encourage community based activities inexisting Area Development Programmes

–

Provide direct environmental benefits tocommunities through CPR activities

•

Link Climate Change mitigation with AFOLU projects in the developing world for povertyreduction

–

Reforestation

–

Avoided deforestation

–

Increased agro-forestry

–

Sustainable agriculture (e.g. no till –

improved

soil carbon)



5

Expected WV Policy

Framework

KNOWKnow, by measuring

and monitoring, the

activities the WV

Global Partnership,

which:

NEGATIVELY affect

the planet and its

environment; or

POSITIVELY affect

the planet and its

environment.

IMPROVEREDUCE the negative

impact the WV Global

Partnership has on the

planet’s environment,

And

INCREASE the

positive impact the

WV Global

Partnership has on the

planet’s environment.

OFFSETOFFSET those

negative activities

which cannot be

effectively reduced.



6

Expected Way Forward

Existing Core Value - We are stewards of God's Creation. We care for

the earth and act in ways that will restore and protect the environment.

We ensure that our development activities are ecologically sound.

WV Policy Framework - Environmental Policy Needed

KNOW our impact. REDUCE negative and INCREASE positive

impacts. OFFSET remaining negative impacts.

Mitigation

Reducing

greenhouse

gas:

Emissions

Concentrations

Adaptation

Coping with

and adapting to

ClimateChange effects

- largely DRR

and Resilience

(Community,

environment)

Public

Engagement

& Policy

All peopleeverywhere

can contribute;

the poor must

be part of the

solution



7

PROPOSED Climate Change Community of Interest

Mitigation

Working GroupVery tight and natural

connection to TD and

work of various parts

of the Integrated

Technical Teams.

Adaptation

Working GroupVery tight and natural

connection to HEA.

Public

Engagement &

AdvocacyVery tight and natural

connection to

Advocacy,

Communications, and

Marketing.

Small Climate Change staff group supporting the

Climate Change COP and its 3 Permanent WorkingGroups.

Other

Working

Groups

Other

Working

Groups

Other

Working

Groups

Other

Working

Groups

Other

Working

Groups

Reference Team Business TeamExecutive Team



8

World Vision and Climate

Change•

Climate Change is NOT a new sector in TD or HEA

• Climate Change is a long-term reality for WV,which will affect ALL parts of our work

•

Climate Change will force WV to explicitly consider

the natural environment – our impact upon it, how toimprove it, how it is changing

•

WV needs to build capacity and understanding of

Climate Change issues• WV has been working on Climate Change issues for

last 2 years



9



10

CΔ and Human Well-Being•

Combating climate

change is central tohumanitarian action

–

Climate change is not

only an environmentalproblem

as there are:

•

Social aspects

•

Economic aspects

–

Climate change is

fundamentally a

development problem



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Climate Change – why important•

The predicted impact of climate change

– Sea level rise•

Coastal cities, Low lying islands

–

Extreme weather and climate events

• Frequency and severity•

Drought, flood, landslide, sea surge

–

Changing precipitation patterns

•

Seasons and precipitation regimes change

•

Water and sanitation

–

Changing disease patterns



12

Climate Change – why important•

Linkages and feedbacks with other systems

– Social systems•

Conflict arising from competition for scarcer resources

–

Environmental migration

•

Forced displacement

•

Voluntary movement

– Local and global economic systems•

Food grain availability and prices

•

Viability of livelihood strategies



13

Economic Change – why important•

Changing food prices and vulnerability

– Winners and losers•

Farmers and consumers

–

Changing demand for food grains

• Biofuels•

Dietary patterns

–

Changing supply of food grains

•

Cost of production

•

Environmental change/degradation

–

Impact on humanitarian assistance



14

Implications of Change•

Environmental degradation

• Settlement patterns

•

Livelihood choices

• Behaviour

•

Disaster risk

• Ecosystemhealth

•

Probability & severity

of events

•

Modulates effect of

extreme events



15

Implications of Change•

Recurrent disasters

– Repeating with greater frequency and intensity

• Result in

– ↓ Livelihood assets/resources – ↓ Recovery capacity (resilience) – from current

shock

– ↑ Vulnerability – to next shock

–

↑

Numbers falling into destitution



16

Implications of Change

•

Uncertainty of region-specific effects

– Need to emphasize increased capacity to respondto a range of possible impacts

– Coincidence of activities – Surprises – past not reliable predictor

• Adaptivecapacity

• Sustainabledevelopment



17

Vulnerability and Adaptation• Vulnerability

– “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unableto cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including

climate variability and extremes” (IPCC 2001)

• Exposure and adaptive capacity• Poverty and vulnerability

–

Livelihood resources

–

Inequality in access and distribution of resources

–

Institutions and social capital

–

Non-climatic factors that limit adaptive capacity



18

Vulnerability and Adaptation• Adaptation

– “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response toactual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which

moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC

2007)

• Approaches to adaptation

–

Top-down, scenarios-driven approach

– Bottom-up, vulnerability-driven approach

• Examples



20

Actions which address

the drivers of

vulnerability

Activities reduce poverty and address other

fundamental shortages of capability that make people

vulnerable to harm.

Very little attention is given to specific climate changeimpacts but actions can increase resilience to climate

stresses and shocks

Examples?

Actins which build

response capacityThese capacity building actions lay the foundation for

more targeted adaptation actions

Actions which manage

climate risk Climate information is incorporated into decisions to

reduce the negative affects of climatic impacts—due to

either variability or climate change—on resources and

livelihoods

Actions which

confront climate

change

Actions taken respond almost exclusively to impacts

known to be caused by climate change.

A Continuum of Possible Actions



21

Avenues for Action•

Relief-development dichotomy is unhelpful

– Good, sustainable development mitigates the needfor relief responses

–

Good, proactive relief is somewhat developmental

in nature

•

A three-legged stool

– Advocacy, relief and development

– A combined, holistic approach



22

Avenues for Action• “We are responsive”

– Tendency to be reactive• Proactive action

–

Capacity to respond

•

What is needed? –

skills, resources

– Reduce the need to respond

•

Disaster risk reduction?

•

Adaptation and mitigation?

–

Environmental stewardship

• What example should we set?



23


Proactive humanitarian action

– Prevent destitution (protect livelihood assets)•

Facilitates recovery

–

Environmentally sensitive assistance

•

Reduce negative impact

•

Restore damaged ecology

– Livelihood recovery•

Restoration of a nonviable livelihood strategy

•

Facilitate transition to a sustainable livelihood strategy



24


Proactive humanitarian action

– Response capacity of NGOs – ability to react•

Skill set

•

Resources

•

Types of response needed

–

Rapid onset

–

Slow onset

– Adaptive capacity of local populations

•

Disaster risk reduction

•

Resilient ecosystems and communities



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Scenarios1. Coastal cities and island states – Asia

–

Impact of sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of

tropical storms on low-lying coastal areas

2. Agro-pastoral regions – Africa –

Impact of more frequent and severe dry periods and flooding on agro-

pastoral ecosystems and rural livelihoods3. Hilly landscapes – Latin America and Caribbean

–

Impact of more frequent and intense tropical cyclones on peri-urban

populations of poor living on sloping landscapes

4. Global grain supplies and prices –

Impact of higher grain prices on poor populations and the provisionof humanitarian assistance



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Scenario One•

Coastal cities and

island states –

Impact of sea level rise and

increased frequency and

intensity of tropical stormson low-lying coastal areas

–

Urban poor

– Displacement/migration –

Rural-urban linkages

–

Economic vulnerability



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Scenario Two• Agro-pastoral regions –

Africa –

Impact of more frequent and

severe dry periods and

flooding on agro-pastoral

ecosystems and rural

livelihoods

–

Migration

–

Vulnerability and resilience

–

Repeated shocks overlaid on

chronic poverty



28

Scenario Three•

Hilly landscapes –

Latin America and

Caribbean – Impact of more frequent and intense tropical

cyclones on peri-urban populations of poor living

on sloping landscapes

–

Deforestation and destabilization of slopes



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Scenario Four•

Global grain supplies and prices

– Impact of higher grain prices on poor populationsand the provision of humanitarian assistance

•

Rural poor

–

Farmers –

net sellers, net buyers, seasonal buyers and sellers

–

Non-farmers

•

Urban poor

– Need for and provision of humanitarian

assistance



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Scenario Analysis•

Identify the principal actors

– Poor/rich, rural/urban, NGOs, government, other • Identify the principal forces/issues

– Environmental, economic, social, political• Identify the linkages and feedbacks

–

Positive –

reinforcing changes

– Negative – moderating changes

–

Between actors, forces, issues, regions (rural,

urban)



31

Scenario Analysis•

Change

– Past and current changes – Likely future change

• Identify the areas of vulnerability – Possible scenarios and how they might evolve

–

Impact on the most vulnerable

– Impact on coping capacity



32

Scenario Analysis• Identify pressure points – areas for action

– Reactive adaptation (disaster response) – Proactive adaptation (mitigation, DRR)

• Which areas can we act upon? – How?

–

When?

– Who’s responsible?



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Thank You



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Selected Sources•

Christian Aid. 2007. Human tide: The real migration crisis. Christian Aid: London.

•

Donini, Antonio , Larissa Fast, Greg Hansen, Simon Harris, Larry Minear,Tasneem

Mowjee, and Andrew Wilder. 2008. Humanitarian Agenda 2015: The

State of the Humanitarian Enterprise. Feinstein International Center, TuftsUniversity: Medford.

•

IISD. 2005. Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries. InternationalInstitute for Sustainable Development (IISD): Winnipeg.

•

ISDR. 2008. Environmental Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction.

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR): Geneva.•

Perry, Jo-Ellen. 2008. Vulnerability and Adaptation: The Basics. IISD.

•

Save the Children UK. 2007.

Legacy of Disasters: The Impact of Climate Change

on Children. Save the Children UK: London.

•

World Vision Australia. 2008. Regional Climate Predictions: Horn of Africa:

Sudan, Ethiopia & Somalia. World Vision Australia: Melbourne.•

World Vision International. 2008. Regional Risk Mapping Project Report .Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs, Asia Pacific Region, World VisionInternational.

•

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34129009 climate change and implications for humanitarian action 29 april 08

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