31st july (friday),2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine
TRANSCRIPT
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July 31 , 2015 Vol 5 ,Issue VII
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Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Jul 30, 2015
Rain showers are expected across Southeast China today and tomorrow. Rain showers are also
expected in Northeast China On Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry weather is expected on
Thursday and Friday in East-central China.
In India, rain is expected from Bihar to Odisha on Thursday. Scattered rains are expected from
Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Maharashtra to Madhya Pradesh and northern Andhra Pradesh
on Thursday. Showers are expected from Uttarakhand to Northeast Andhra Pradesh on Friday.
Scattered showers are expected across Western Maharashtra to Kerala on Friday.
Isolated heavy rain is expected across North and North-eastern Thailand today and tomorrow.
Rain is expected across Northern Vietnam on Thursday and Friday. The rest of Vietnam will
only have spotty shower and thunderstorm on Thursday and Friday .
In Pakistan, rain is expected at some places in Kashmir, Islamabad, upper Punjab during the
next two days. Dry weather is expected elsewhere in the country.
In Bangladesh, light rain is likely to occur at most places over Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong and
Sylhet divisions and at many places over Dhaka, Rangpur & Rajshahi divisions with moderately
heavy to very heavy falls at places over Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong divisions and
moderately heavy falls at places elsewhere over the country during the next two days.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across Sulawesi, Borneo and Northern Sumatra on
Thursday and Friday.
Global Rice Quotes
July 30th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 380-390 ↔
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Vietnam 5% broken 340-350 ↓
India 5% broken 385-395 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 355-365 ↓
Myanmar 5% broken 400-410 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 470-480 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 350-360 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 325-335 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 315-325 ↓
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔
India 25% broken 350-360 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 445-455 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 380-390 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↔
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India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-320 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 315-325 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 305-315 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 325-335 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Rally on Healthy New Crop
Sales and Strong Weekly Shipments
Jul 30, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 13 cents per cwt (about $3
per ton higher) at $11.330 per cwt (about $250 per ton) during early floor trading in
Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed this morning; soybeans are currently seen
trading about 0.6% higher, wheat is listed about 0.2% higher and corn is currently noted about
0.1% higher.
U.S. stocks opened slightly lower on Thursday as investors digested a slew of corporate
earnings, U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates
unchanged. In economic news, the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product
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expanded at an annual rate of 2.3%, slightly below economists' estimates. The department
revised its first-quarter GDP reading to a 0.6% increase from a 0.2% contraction. U.S. weekly
jobless claims increased by 12,000 week-over-week, but came in below expectations at 267,000,
the Labor Department said.
On Wednesday, the central bank kept rates unchanged and gave no hint of liftoff coming in the
next meeting. The decision on the rates was unanimous. Policymakers said the economy is
expanding moderately and made no mention of recent volatility around Greece or China. Gold is
currently trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.2% lower, and the U.S.
dollar is currently trading about 0.6% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.
China Holds $300 Million Loan to Cambodia
Rice Project
Jul 30, 2015
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The government of China has put on hold a $300 million loan to a Cambodian rice project,
aimed at developing storage and warehousing facilities in the country, as the government of
Cambodia has not been able to meet the criteria set by the Chinese authorities, local sources
quoted an official associated with the project.
In December last year, Cambodia's Ministry of Economy and Finance reportedly sent a draft
memorandum of understanding (MoU) to the Chinese government seeking a loan of about $300
million to build and develop rice warehouses in the country. The government is keen on building
about 10 rice warehouses, which can store a total of 1.2 million tons of paddy/rice, in the country
to ensure uninterrupted supplies to millers and exporters.
The Senior Adviser for the Supreme National Economic Council (SNEC), which is overseeing
the project told local sources that the loan has been put on hold as Cambodia has not responded
to the Chinese requirements on the loan. “There are some technical problems from our Chinese
counterparts. Both parties are looking at their own benefit, and now we are negotiating,” he was
quoted as saying.
Members of the Cambodian Rice Federation (CRF) have been stressing for the need for the
development of rice storage and warehousing facilities in the country in order to boost exports.
The CRF has also been urging the government to provide adequate financing facilities to the
millers and exporters to buy rice during the harvest season.
Earlier, the SNEC Senior Adviser noted that a major quantity of Cambodian paddy/rice is
exported to Vietnam and Thailand through unofficial channels during the harvest season as the
country lacks proper storage facilities. Due to this, millers and exporters have been facing severe
shortages of paddy for milling during lean months of April and May, and a proper warehousing
system is needed to address this issue.
Cambodia has exported around 283,825 tons of milled rice in the first six months of 2015, up
about 60% from around 177,928 tons exported during the same period last year, according to
data from the Secretariat of One Window Service for Rice Export Formality.). Cambodia
exported around 387,000 tons in 2014.
USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial
exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1
million tons in 2014.
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Japan Pushes for Increased Rice Utilization
in Feed Industry, Says USDA Post
Jul 30, 2015
With the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) pushing for the increase in rice
utilization in feed, the use of rice in Japan's total feed market has increased considerably in MY
2014-15 (October - September), reports USDA Post.
Rice utilization in Japan's total feed market has increased to around 5% in first eight months of
MY 2014-15 compared to around 3% in the entire MY 2013-14; while corn utilization has
remained relatively stable at around 45% during the period, according to the USDA Post.
The government's expansion of rice utilization in feed rations through subsidies is expected to
result in a slightly lower corn consumption level for feed in MY 2014-15. This falling trend for
corn consumption is expected to continue in MY 2015-16 also.
The government of Japan maintains a feed price stabilization program that consists of a
combination of a MAFF subsidy and industry fund to help sudden surges in compound feed
prices.
India Average Wholesale Rice Prices
Continue to Decline in July 2015
Jul 30, 2015
India average wholesale rice prices continued to decline for second consecutive month in July
2015 after continuously increasing for three consecutive months from March to May. The
decline can be attributed to increasing supplies in the domestic market due to a declining export
demand.
Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India declined to around Rs.2,646.88 per quintal in
July 2015, down about 4% from around Rs.2,658 per quintal in June 2015, and down about 18%
from their year-ago levels of around Rs.3,216 per quintal.
In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $415 per ton (using
current exchange rates) in July 2015, down about 1% from around $419 per ton (using historical
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exchange rates) in June 2015, and down about 22.5% from their year-ago levels of around $483
per ton (using historical exchange rates).
India’s average prices are likely to increase if India’s production is dampened by a moderate
drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to persist between July and
September. Weather bureaus in Australia and Japan are forecasting an intensifying El Nino
weather pattern, which is already causing dry conditions in South East Asian countries, including
Thailand, North Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. The government of India is monitoring the
impact of El Nino on monsoon rains in the country. India received 7% below normal rainfall in
the fourth week of July, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
Planting for India's main/kharif rice crop (June – December), which began in the month of May
and continuing, started off well due to above-average rains in the beginning of the monsoon
season. It has been good enough so far despite the rainfall declining in some rice-growing
regions. As of July 24, the total area planting to India's 2015-16 kharif rice crop stood at around
18.85 million hectares, up about 7% from around 17.65 million hectares planted during the same
time last year.
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USDA estimates India's 2015-16 (October - September) production at around 104 million tons, up about
1.5% from an estimated 102.5 million tons in 2014-15. It estimates India's 2015 rice exports at around
10.2 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 10.15 million tons in 2014
Drought Threatens Indonesia's Rice Self
Sufficiency Plans
Jul 30, 2015
Extending drought conditions across Indonesia are said to be leading to crop failures in most of
the rice growing provinces. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) declared that
about 25,000 hectares of crop fields, including rice, in the country are experiencing crop failures
due to the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern, according to local sources.
The Food Crop Cultivation Head of the Central Java Agriculture Agency noted that about 6,578
hectares of paddy fields in the province have already experienced crop failure due to drought and
another 27,000 hectares are on the verge of failure. Similarly, authorities in Jambi province also
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declared that 68 hectares of paddy fields have experienced crop failure. These developments
indicate a fall in the secondary rice crop (June to mid-December) output.
Water crisis that resulted from low rains in most of the provinces, including West Java, Central
Java, South Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara and Papua, are adding to the farmers' troubles.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has
predicted that the El Niño effect will extend Indonesia’s dry season, which normally occurs
between April and September, until November.
These developments are likely to disrupt the government plans of achieving self-sufficiency in
rice over the next four years. The government aimed to increase 2015 paddy rice production by
about 4% to around 73.4 million tons (around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) in order to be
self-sufficient in rice production and avoid imports.
The President is also targeting a no-rice import policy this year. Indonesian government has so
far not imported any rice in 2015. It imported 425,000 tons in 2014 through the state logistics
agency Bulog.
However, the favorable weather conditions coupled with the government initiatives are expected
to provide a good output from the main rice crop (October - May), whose harvesting completed
in June.
India Plans to Procure 30 Million Tons of
Rice in KMS 2015-16
Jul 30, 2015
The government of India is planning to procure around 30 million tons of rice in the 2015-16
kharif marketing season (October 2015 - September 2016), according to a statement from the
Food Ministry.
The government is planning to procure 8.2 million tons of rice from Punjab, 3.6 million tons
from Chhattisgarh, 2.34 million tons from Haryana and 2 million each from Andhra Pradesh and
Assam, according to the statement.
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State governments have been directed to ensure effective procurement process by opening
adequate purchase centers and manpower. They have also been asked to prepare storage plan for
the new KMS as well as make an action plan to meet any deficit in storage facilities.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and
distribution has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15
(October 2014 - September 2015), down about 1% from last year, according to data by the
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution. The Indian government is targeting
to procure 35.109 million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Find Follow-through Buying as
Market Breaks Technical Resistance
Jul 30, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 23.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) higher at
$11.435 per cwt (about $252 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed
about 0.7% higher at $9.5000 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% higher at $4.9625 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.5% higher at $3.8375 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded in a range on Thursday as investors digested more earnings and second
quarter GDP, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Nasdaq
Composite turned positive in late morning trade, with the S&P 500 attempting gains in early
afternoon trade. The Dow Jones industrial average struggled to hold gains after trading lower,
falling 100 points in the open. In economic news, U.S. gross domestic product came in at 2.3%,
slightly below economists' estimates. The department revised its first-quarter GDP reading to a
0.6% increase from a 0.2% contraction. U.S. weekly jobless claims increased by 12,000 week-
over-week, but came in below expectations at 267,000, the Labor Department said.
On Wednesday, the central bank kept rates unchanged and gave no hint of liftoff coming in the
next meeting. The decision on the rates was unanimous. Policymakers said the economy is
expanding moderately and made no mention of recent volatility around Greece or China. The
Dow Jones industrial average traded down 2 points, or 0.01%, at 17,749. The S&P 500 traded
down 0.5 points, or 0.02%, at 2,108, with energy leading five sectors lower and utilities the
greatest advancer. The Nasdaq traded up 17 points, or 0.34%, at 5,128. Gold is trading about
0.5% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at
about 0.7% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 606 contracts traded, up from 437 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 66 contracts to
8,631.
Myanmar Rice Exports May Not be
Impacted by Recent Floods, Says MRF
Official
Jul 30, 2015
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Heavy rains and flooding since mid-July in Myanmar's Sagaing Region, Shan State and Kachin
State have destroyed more than 24,000 hectares of paddy fields, but the country's exports may
not be affected significantly, Myanmar Times quoted the General Secretary of Myanmar Rice
Federation (MRF).
According to a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, about 981 hectares of
summer paddy fields, about 14,676 hectares of monsoon paddy fields and about 1,240 hectares
of seedling fields have been impacted by flooding as of July 19, 2015.
However, the MRF General Secretary told reporters that overall yields are likely to suffer
slightly but may not impact exports. He urged the government to support farmers as per new
laws that have been framed to protect farmers.
A prominent farmer based in Sagaing Region added that farmers have an opportunity to replant
until the beginning of September if they can afford financially. They need to re-spend on
fertilizers and seeds, he said.
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However, experts noted that current floods have occurred in the upper part of Myanmar and not
in the lower part, where some fields are ready for harvest.
The Vice Chairman of the Myanmar Rice Traders Association urged the government to
encourage farmers to purchase crop insurance as most parts of Bago and Ayeyarwady regions are
prone to flooding during this part of year.
The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96 million tons, basis
milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to export around 2 million tons of rice this
year. Myanmar exported about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15.
USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.8 million tons,
milled basis) and export around 2 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (January - December
2015).
Philippines Invites Farmers to Distribute
NFA Rice Stocks Under Ifad Program
Jul 30, 2015
The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) is inviting farmers organizations (FOs) and
farmers associations (FAs) to distribute about 100,000 tons of NFA rice stocks under the
Institutionalized Farmers as Distributors (Ifad) Program, according to local sources.
The government implemented the program on July 16, 2015 and will continue till October 31,
2015. Under the program, FOs and FAs are required to distribute 2 million 50 kilogram bags of
rice from the 2014 imported rice stocks.
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The NFA Deputy Administrator told local sources that the Ifad program aims to “empower
farmers” by directly involving FOs and FAs in the distribution of NFA rice as well as help
increase their incomes.
Interested and qualified FOs and FAs are required to submit a letter of intent (LOI) to the NFA
provincial manager in their respective areas.
As per the guidelines, 30% of rice stocks will be allocated among all qualified FOs and FAs
across the country, but 60% will be allocated only to those who had participated under the
program earlier. The remaining 10% will be allocated to all officers of the Philippines Farmers
Advisory Board and Provincial Farmers Action Council.
The NFA fixed the price of 25% brokens at P25 per kilogram (around $0.55), or P1,250 per bag
(around $27.35), while it fixed the price of the 15% brokens at P30 per kilogram (around $0.66)
or P1,500 per bag (around $32.81).
The program initially started in 2002 and ran till 2010. Again it was started in 2013 upon the
request of FOs and FAs across the country.
The NFA Spokesman told reporters that the allocations for Ifad the NFA buffer stocks are
currently sufficient for 25 days and imports from Vietnam and Thailand have started arriving in
the country's ports.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – New Sales
Help Push Prices Higher
Jul 30, 2015
The U.S. cash market was firmer today with price ideas increasing with the futures market.
Farmers have no set their sights on $11.11 per cwt fob farm (about $245 per ton) however most
buyers have ideas closer to $10.00 per cwt fob farm (about $220 per ton).
Analysts note that with the recent run up in the futures market most sellers are willing to wait
and see how far the market will run however others are that once the buying stops there could be
a rush of sellers coming to the market.
Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on July 23rd
,
totaled 8,400 tons, which was 11% lower than last week and 82% lower than the prior 4-week
average.
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Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 3,000 tons to Japan, 2,000 tons
to unknown destinations, 1,200 tons to Canada, 600 tons to the United Kingdom, and 400 tons
to Mexico.
Net sales of 49,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for the following destinations including;
30,000 tons to Venezuela, 5,900 tons to unknown destinations, 5,500 tons to El Salvador, and
5,000 tons to South Korea.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 105,900 tons, which was 15% higher than last week and 60% higher
than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included: 31,800 tons to Japan, 29,900
tons to Venezuela, 17,800 tons to South Korea, 12,000 tons to Mexico, and 10,000 tons to Haiti.
South Korea Imports 305,027 Tons of Brown
Rice Under 2015 TRQ as of July 8, 2015, Says
USDA Post
Jul 30, 2015
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South Korea is required to import a mandatory 408,700 tons of rice from Most Favored Nation
(MFN) countries at 5% duty under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) regime. The government's state
trading arm Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation (aT) manages the purchases of all
imported rice through tenders and subsequent auctions of imported table rice.
As of July 8, 2015, aT purchased 305,027 tons of brown rice for processing purposes (around
274,524, basis milled) or 67% of the entire 2015 TRQ import commitment. The Korean
government is expected to continue purchases of the remaining 134,176 metric tons (milled)
within calendar year 2015, says the Post. The following table shows the tonnage and percentage
of rice imported from the MFN countries.
The Post forecasts rice production in MY 2015-16 (May - April) at 4 million tons, unchanged
from last year despite a likely decline in planting area by about 2.1% y/y to 799,000 hectares.
The increase is attributed to usage of high yielding varieties.
The government of Korea has procured around 610,000 tons of rice, or 14.4% of total 214 crop
production, under the Public Food Grain Stockholding Program (PFSP) as of May 2015.
The Post forecasts Korea MY 2015-16 consumption at around 4.355 million tons, down about
2% from an estimated 4.5 million tons in MY 2014-15.
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Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some
of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice
Quotes Unchanged
Jul 30, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $340-
$350 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken
rice by about $5 per ton each to around$355-$365 per ton and $315-$325 per ton respectively
today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan
5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25%
rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was
last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $5 per ton
from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan
broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.