31st december,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e-newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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www.ricepluss.com www.riceplusmagazine.blogspot.com

December 31 ,2015 Vol 5,Issue XII


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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices

Weaken Slightly; High River Levels Cause

for Concern

Dec 31, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker today although there was very little trading to report

as both buyers and sellers continue to hold out for better prices.

Recent heavy rains across the US Midwest have elevated water levels on the Lower Mississippi

River to the point the barge loading operations have had to shut down while also slowing

logistics throughout the system.

Analysts note that if new export demand were to show up the speed with which the U.S. would

be able to ship would likely be significantly delayed until water levels recede.

Oryza Weekly: Market Little Changed

Ahead of New Year Celebrations

Dec 31, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,

ended the week at about $387 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $6 per ton from

a month ago and down about $44 per ton from a year ago.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week

ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per ton from a year ago.

Thailand’s Public Debt Management Office plans to transfer the 500-billion baht (about $14

billion) debt incurred under the rice pledging scheme from the Bank for Agriculture and

Agricultural Cooperatives to the fiscal debt ledger to cut interest expenses. Meanwhile, the

government will continue to sell rice from its stockpiles, timing the sales so that they do not

impact prices of the new crop.

India

India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up

about $5 per ton from a month ago, and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.


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India’s 2015-16 winter/rabi rice (November-May) planting area has reached about 0.1217

million hectares as of December 23, down about 10.65% from the same period in 2014-15.

Rice procurement by the Food Corporation of India and state government agencies for the

summer/kharif marketing season 2015-16 has increased sharply over the last year, despite a

likely lower output this year.

Indian rice exporters anticipate basmati rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April-March) to reach 4

million tons, compared to about 3.7 million tons in FY 2014-15, due to a depreciating rupee and

enhanced demand from West Asian countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a

week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $20 per ton from a year

ago.

Paddy rice production in 2015 is estimated to increase to around 45.2 million tons from 44.97

million tons in 2014, despite dry conditions.

The Agriculture Ministry estimates the country’s rice exports to reach about 6.7 million tons in

2015, up about 5.8% from in 2014.


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The UN’s FAO estimates Vietnam’s 2015 rice exports will reach 8.3 million tons (including 1.5

million tons of unofficial exports to China through land borders), an increase of about 4% from

2014.

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $430 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,

up about $10 per ton from a month ago, and down about $35 per ton from a year ago. Paddy rice

production in Cambodia has declined slightly to around 9.2 million tons in 2015, with the decline

attributed to drought in some areas. Separately, rice millers and exporters in Cambodia plan to

increase organic rice exports to market such as the EU and the U.S. based on the pace of exports

this year.

Myanmar 5% broken rice is today shown at about $415 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up

about $5 per ton from a month ago, and unchanged from a year ago.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $335 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up

about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.

Central & South America

Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $450 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down


The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied

Economics (CEPEA) reached around 40.96 real per 50 kilograms as of December 27, 2015,

slightly up from around 40.95 real per 50 kilograms recorded on December 20, 2015. In terms of

USD per ton, the index reached around $212.10 per ton on December 27, 2015, up about 4%

from around $204.22 per ton recorded on December 20, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has

declined about 1% from around 41.44 real per 50 kilograms. In terms of USD, the index declined

about 4% during the month.

Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $510 per ton,

unchanged from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $90 per

ton from a year ago.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $480 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down


Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery increased this week after opening at the weekly

low of $10.850 per cwt (about $239 per ton). They reached $11.755 per cwt (about $259 per

ton) on Tuesday before retracing some on Wednesday.


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The U.S. cash market firmed up this week with offers from resellers jumping with the futures

market.

Other Markets

The Trade Minister of Indonesia says that the country will likely need to import rice in 2016,

after importing about 1.5 million tons in 2015. Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia plans to

include rice in public stockholding and protect it by a special safeguard mechanism for

agricultural products.

The government of South Korea plans to strike a balance between rice supply and demand by

2018 through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in consumption.

Paddy prices in Bangladesh have increased after the government raised the import duty on rice

from 10% to 20% earlier this month.

Government of India Allocates Subsidized

Rice, Wheat to 530 Million People Under

NFSA

Dec 30, 2015

The government of India is allocating subsidized rice and wheat to over 110 million households

consisting of about 530 million beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act (NFSA),

Reuters quoted local sources.

The Indian government is providing wheat at Rs.2 (around 3 cents) per kilogramand rice at Rs.3

(around 4.5 cents) per kilogram. Twenty five states and Union territories have started

implementing the NFSA. The government is keen on bringing all the states under the NFSA at

the earliest.

About 61.4 million tons of rice and wheat are required for the implementation of the NFSA.

Under the current Targeted Public Distribution System (TDPS), only 25 crore households

Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) are getting food grains at subsidized prices, while households

under Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL) categories are receiving food

grains at higher rates. The current TDPS requires 56 million food grains.

The NFSA also The Act also aims at providing nutritional requirements to pregnant women and

children up to 14 years of age by entitling them to receive nutritious meals, free of cost. Pregnant

women and lactating mothers are entitled to receive maternity benefit of Rs. 6,000 (around $91)

per pregnancy.


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The government is focussing on end-to-end computerisation in all the states for effective

implementation of the NFSA.

Exporters Seek to Increase Organic Rice

Exports

Dec 30, 2015

Cambodian rice millers and exporters are planning to increase organic rice exports to markets

such as the European Union and the U.S. based on the pace of exports this year, according to the

Phnom Penh Post.

Cambodia exported about 2,800 tons of organic rice in the first eleven months of 2015,

according to the Deputy Director General of the Department of Agriculture.

The CEO of one of the major rice exporters in Cambodia, which started to export organic rice

this year, told local sources that there is a lot of potential in this new market since Cambodia has

land and labour to grow sufficient organic rice. He also noted that since the price of the organic

rice is much higher, about $700 to $1,300 per ton, farmers and exporters can expect margins of

about 20-30% on these sales. He added that demand for organic rice is increasing significantly

domestically as well as abroad.

However the Agriculture Department official noted that the country cannot immediately depend

on organic rice exports. “We cannot put much focus on organic rice because the yield of organic

paddy is lower than normal rice,” he said. “And only farming organic rice will not give farmers

much income,” he added.

He noted that given the higher cost of organic rice, only few markets such as EU and the U.S.

could afford this rice. He assured that other varieties of Cambodian rice are also safe and healthy

for consumption.

India Rice Procurement Increases Sharply in

KMS 2015-16 Due to Low Prices, Say Food

Ministry Officials

Dec 30, 2015


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Rice procurement, by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state government agencies, for the

kharif marketing season (KMS) 2015-16 (October 1, 2015 - September 30, 2016), has increased

sharply over last year despite a likely lower output this year, the Financial Express quoted latest

procurement data.

The FCI and the government agencies together have procured over 18 million tons of rice

(milled equivalent of paddy) as of December 29, 2015, up about 31% from around 13.76 million

tons procured during the same period last year.

Food Ministry officials attributed the higher procurement to a decline in prices of common

variety of rice in various markets across the country. “The farmers sold grain to government

agencies rather than giving it to the private traders in Punjab and Haryana, where procurement

operations have completed,” an official was quoted.

In Punjab, which contributes the highest volume of rice and wheat to the central pool, the FCI

and the state agencies have procured around 9.3 million tons of rice so far, compared to around

7.7 million tons procured last year. Agencies have procured around 2.8 million tons of rice in

Haryana compared to around 2.3 million tons last year. They reportedly procured 760,000

tons,830,000 tons and 108,000 tons from Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala respectively. State

agencies have reportedly purchased 1.7 million tons of rice in Chhattisgarh and 400,000 tons in

Odisha.


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The government of India fixed the minimum support price (MSP) of common variety of paddy at

around $1,410 per quintal (around $213 per ton) and that of Grade A paddy at $1,450 per quintal

(around $219 per ton) for the 2015-16 kharif season.

Based on the pace of procurement, the Food Ministry officials expressed confidence that the

government may surpass the target of 30 million tons for KMS 2015-16. The FCI and

government agencies procured 32 million tons of rice in KMS 2014-15.

Government of South Korea Seeks to Achieve

Rice Supply-Demand Balance by 2018

Dec 30, 2015

The government of South Korea is planning to strike a balance between rice supply and demand

by 2018 through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in consumption,

Yonhap News quoted the government sources.

The Ministry of Agriculture is reportedly planning to cut down the paddy acreage from the

current 799,000 hectares to around 711,000 hectares by 2018, and increase the annual per capita

rice consumption to 58.1 kilograms compared to the estimated 57.4 kilograms.

The government is also planning to reduce the size of the rice stocks from the current 1.63

million tons to around 800,000 tons by October 2018.

"There is a need to deal with imbalance in supply and demand," said the Deputy Agriculture

Minister. He noted that in the last ten years, the country on average produced 280,000 tons of

rice per year more than the requisite demand.

Sources from the Agriculture Ministry noted that they will encourage farmers to increase

production of non-rice crops and for rice they will ask farmers to produce more high-quality and

lower-yield grains. They added that to increase consumption, they will use more rice to make

livestock feed and alcoholic beverages. The Ministry is planning to lower rice reserves by

releasing more grain for animal feed and lower prices of rice for socially disadvantaged sector.

The above measures are likely to help the government save about 300 billion won (US$256

million) on rice storage expenses as well as stabilize domestic prices of rice, according to the

Ministry sources.

The government of South Korea is planning to strike a balance between rice supply and demand

by 2018 through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in consumption,

Yonhap News quoted the government sources.


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The Ministry of Agriculture is reportedly planning to cut down the paddy acreage from the

current 799,000 hectares to around 711,000 hectares by 2018, and increase the annual per capita

rice consumption to 58.1 kilograms compared to the estimated 57.4 kilograms.

The government is also planning to reduce the size of the rice stocks from the current 1.63

million tons to around 800,000 tons by October 2018.

"There is a need to deal with imbalance in supply and demand," said the Deputy Agriculture

Minister. He noted that in the last ten years, the country on average produced 280,000 tons of

rice per year more than the requisite demand.

Sources from the Agriculture Ministry noted that they will encourage farmers to increase

production of non-rice crops and for rice they will ask farmers to produce more high-quality and

lower-yield grains. They added that to increase consumption, they will use more rice to make

livestock feed and alcoholic beverages. The Ministry is planning to lower rice reserves by

releasing more grain for animal feed and lower prices of rice for socially disadvantaged sector.

The above measures are likely to help the government save about 300 billion won (US$256

million) on rice storage expenses as well as stabilize domestic prices of rice, according to the

Ministry sources.

The government has been facing higher production and lower consumption of rice over the last few

years.

Global Rice Quotes December 30th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 355-365 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 360-370 ↔

India 5% broken 355-365 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 330-340 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 475-485 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 510-520 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 505-515 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 335-345 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 300-310 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 400-410 ↔

India 25% broken 325-335 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔


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Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 350-360 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 500-510 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 520-530 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 680-690 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 445-455 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 265-275 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 290-300 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap -

Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to

Rocket Higher as Short Specs Look to Cover

ahead of New Year Holiday

Dec 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 61 cents per cwt (about $13 per ton) higher at

$11.935 per cwt (about $263 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed

about 0.5% higher at $8.6575 per bushel; wheat finished about 2% higher at $4.7575 per bushel,

and corn finished the day about 0.4% higher at $3.6250 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded higher Tuesday, helped by stabilization in oil prices and other commodities, as

tech stocks led gains. The major U.S. averages gained more than 1% in afternoon trade to climb

above their 50-day moving averages. European stocks ended up about 1% or more. Asian


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equities closed higher, with Australia outperforming with a more than 1% gain. In economic

news, home values in October were 5.2% higher year-over-year, greater than the 4.9% annual

gain in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index that covers all

nine U.S. census divisions. Consumer confidence for December came in at 96.5, topping

expectations. Tuesday is the second day of a shortened trading week, the last of the year.

Markets are closed Friday for New Year's Day.

In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 210 points, or 1.20%, to 17,739. The

S&P 500 traded up 23 points, or 1.16%, to 2,080, with information technology and health care

leading all 10 sectors higher. The Nasdaq composite gained 73 points, or 1.46%, to 5,114. Gold

is seen trading about 0.1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar

is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 2:45pm Chicago time.

Monday, there were 2,583 contracts traded, up from 483 contracts traded on Thursday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday decreased by 307 contracts to

14,765.

Indian Exporters Forecast Basmati Rice

Exports to Surge on Rupee Depreciation,

Higher Demand from West Asia

Dec 30, 2015

Indian rice exporters are expecting basmati rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April - March) to reach 4

million tons compared to about 3.7 million tons in FY 2014-15 due to a depreciating rupee and

enhanced demand from West Asian countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, according to local

sources.

Indian rupee had depreciated about 4% against the U.S. dollar between early-October and early-

December 2015, and it reached a high of Rs.66.98 per dollar during the period. Exporters have

expressed satisfaction that basmati export prices have started improving due to this fact and also

due to Iran’s issuance of new permits to rice importers. Currently basmati exports are quoted at

around $950 - $1,000 per ton, higher than the $800 - $900 per ton that prevailed a couple of

months back, according to some exporters. But prices are still lower than last year's average price

of around $1,100 per ton.

India exported around 20,500 tons of Pusa 1121 basmati rice to Iran during the week ended

December 26, 2015 and traders are expecting the Iranian demand to further increase in the

coming months.

India exported around 2.39 million tons of basmati rice in April-October 2015 period, up about

26% from around 1.89 million tons exported during the same period last year, according to data

from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority


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(APEDA). However, earnings from basmati rice exports have declined to around $2.17 billion

in April-October 2015 period from around $2.62 billion during the same period last year due to a

decline in the average basmati rice export prices by about 34% to around $910 per ton during the

seven-month period from around $1,385 per ton last year.

Yet, exporters hoped that situation in Syria and Yemen, and lower crude oil prices would not

impact basmati rice demand in the coming months.

New Book Discovers Journey of Italian Rice

Sector Over Last Century

Dec 30, 2015

The book titled "The rice growing and the great war," co-authored by journalist Paolo Viana

from Novara and by agronomist Giuseppe Sarasso from Vercelli, compares and contrasts the

position of the Italian rice sector today and a hundred years back.

The authors say the Italian sector has survived a number of difficulties over the years, including

the massacres of World War I. Yet, some problems faced by the sector are unchanged even

today, they say.

The authors say the Italian rice acreage, which was about 146,100 hectares at the beginning of

the war in 1914 declined to 138,400 hectares by the end of the war in 1918. However, since then

there has been a tremendous increase in the acreage and yields. Today the Italian rice acreage is

about 219,000 hectares and the yields have also increased to 6.8 tons per hectare today from 3.8

tons per hectare in 1918.

The authors have taken some details from the ancient monthly "The Journal of rice production".

They say the various versions of the journal show that the Italian rice sector was established by a

way of life, a real economy, a professional network, and important infrastructural investment.

They also show that the rice sector was crucial in supplying food in the World War I.

Later on, the rice production in Italy surpassed the demand but exports were not allowed and it

was decided to protect the sector. The decision of the Agricultural Society of Lombardy during a

conference on the "Customs policy after the war" on January 1917 is important in this regard. In

the conference it was decided that rice sector needed to be protection because of fears that the

national production would be stifled by cheap Asian rice.

The authors say today also, the Italian rice sector is facing the same concerns with the Asian rice,

as well as with the use of rice straw and outbreaks of blast disease.

The book is published by the portal www.risoitaliano.eu

http://www.risoitaliano.eu/


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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Cash Prices

Jump with Big Futures Rally

Dec 30, 2015

The U.S. cash market was materially firmer today with offers from resellers jumping with the

futures market coupled with an slight increase in farmer selling.

Analysts note that today’s rally was likely the result of technical short covering however many in the

market expect export demand to pick up after the first of the year which may have added to the

strength.

Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asian Rice Quotes

Remain Unchanged

Dec 30, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for glutinous rice variety by about $5 per ton to

around $480 - $490 per ton today. Other Asian rice sellers have kept their quotes unchanged

today from yesterday.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton about $15 per ton discount on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $360 - $370 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $355

- $365 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $345- $355 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$325 - $335 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $300 -

$310 per ton.

Parboiled Rice


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Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $50 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton

discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $265 - $275 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

Bangladesh Paddy Prices Improve After

Increase in Rice Import Duty, Say Farmers

Dec 30, 2015

Bangladesh paddy prices have increased after the government hiked the import duty on rice from

10% to 20% earlier this month, according to local sources.

Prices of medium variety paddy have increased by about Tk 25 per 40 kilograms (around $8 per

ton) to TK 625 (around $203 per ton), according to some farmers. A Farmer told local sources

that the duty hike is benefitting them but the current prices are still not sufficient to bring them

profits.

Bangladesh traders imported around 204,000 tons of rice in the first six months of FY 2015-16

(July - December), down about 65% from around 582,857 tons imported during the same period

last year. Rice imports reached a record high of 1.49 million tons in FY 2014-15 due to low

global rice prices. Increased imports had depressed local rice and paddy prices significantly

prompting the government to impose import duty on rice in May 2015. The government

increased the duty further in December 2015 to protect the interest of the farmers.

The government rice stocks stood at around 1.13 million tons as on December 27, 2015, up about

17% from last year, according to the Food Ministry data.

The Bangladesh government has planned to procure 200,000 tons of 2015 Aman (July -

December) rice from millers between December 15, 2015 and March 15, 2016 at Tk 31 per

kilogram (around $388.5 per ton). The General Secretary of Bangladesh Auto, Major and

Husking Mills Association noted that purchases by millers to supply rice to the public godowns

have also contributed to the recent paddy price hike. However, some traders opined that paddy

prices would have further increased if the government procured a higher amount of Aman rice,

which accounts for about 38% of the country's total rice production.

USDA estimates Bangladesh’s MY 2015-16 (July 2015 – June 2016) milled rice production at

around 34.6 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5 million tons in MY 2014-15. It


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estimates Bangladesh to import around 1.2 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 and about

600,000 tons in MY 2015-16.

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap -

Chicago Rough Rice Futures Break from

Recent Rally as Buying Interest Dries

Dec 31, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at

$11.815 per cwt (about $260 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower; Soybeans

closed about 0.4% higher at $8.7025 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $4.6975 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% lower at $3.5900 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded slightly lower Wednesday, pressured by a decline in oil prices, as the major

averages attempted to hold gains for the shortened holiday week. In a light day of economic

reports, pending home sales fell 0.9% in November from an upwardly revised October reading,

according to the National Association of Realtors. Trade volume in the last few sessions has been

among the lightest of the year. Markets wrap up the last week of trade for the year on Thursday,

and are closed Friday for New Year's Day. Stocks closed up more than 1% Tuesday as the tech

sector led broad gains amid some stabilization in oil and commodity prices.

As of Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 was up 0.95% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones industrial

average was down 0.57% for the year so far. The Nasdaq composite was up 7.85% for 2015. In

afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 56 points, or 0.32%, to 17,664. The

S&P 500 declined 8 points, or 0.39%, to 2,070, with energy leading all 10 sectors lower. The

Nasdaq composite traded down 21 points, or 0.42%, to 5,086. The major averages are on pace

for weekly gains of half a percent or more. Gold is seen trading about 0.7% lower, crude oil is

seen trading about 3.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at

about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Tuesday, there were 3,465 contracts traded, up from 2,583 contracts traded on Monday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 490 contracts to

14,275.

Exclusive News have been shared with written permission of ORYZA.com with thanks

31st december,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e-newsletter by riceplus magazine

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