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THE NATION ~ MARCH 2014

Amid clamour for 'reform', TORI elicits practical

suggestions to tackle economic, political woes

ERICH PARPART THE NATION

~~~~~~~~~~~economists an aca emics ave proposed efficiency, transparency, and good governance in every sector of the country.

The aim is to stamp out the Fountry's chronic economic

•and political problems in all aspects. ' .

. In each of the past three weeks, the TDRl has held a seminar on the reform issue. Panellists at the seminars put forward ideas to reform the country in three categories: corruption, inequality, and lack of government financial discipline.

The TDRI believes that the current political turmoil stems from structural problems within the country's economy and society. Lax enforcement, transparency. and contingent liability also exacerbate the core structural problems. . .

However, the TDRl has also argued that these problems can be solved through reforrri under a democratic pro.cess, which should be done as soon as possible.

"It is unlikely the country can end its current political conflicts without implementing reforms of various aspects including corruption and economic monopolies,"

SOMKIAT. SOMCHAI

said Somkiat Tangkitvanis, president of the TDRI.

Pasuk Phongpaichit, emeritus professor of the faculty of economics at Chulalongkorn University, suggested that the best way to tackle the problem of cor-. ruption was through harsher punishments and strkt legal action

. against wrongdoers, which proved to be working in countries such as Singapore. . "Corruption reform and prevention are only effective ifdone according to the law and the Constitution," she said. Banyong Pongpanich, chief executive of Kiatnakin Bank, said a lack of decentralisation during the expansion of the government's size and power in the past had caused corruption to run rampant among the few who held that power.

He also said the government should provide legal contracts that are internationally accepted S'O leading foreign firms could directly bid for Thai government projects. This would reduce the problem of corruption during the ten

dering process. Deunden

. Nikomborirak, research direc~ tor of economic governance at the TDRI, said the Official Information

. Act needed to be revised to make the working

NIPON processes of government

institutions more transparent. Currently, government agencies

. can specifY which official information they want to release, which hampered citizens' ability to aCCeSS needed information. "The Official Information Act needs to be more open for the involvement of the general public; she said.

,inequality reform Meanwhile, economic inequali

ty is also a problem the country needs to reform, said Somchai Jitsuchon, research director of inclUSive development at the 'IDRI.

Somchaisuggested an imm:edi~ ate draft of a "basic social-welfare bill" that guarantees equal treatment for all citizens. He also suggested implementation of the Property and Land Tax Act, which was drafted a long time ago, to . increase the government's incorrie from wealth tax and use the extra funds to support policies or projects that benefit the poor. Other

progressive taxes such as increased heritage and capitalgains levies were also proposed by Somchai because they would increase the contribution of the rich to government revenue . .

"If the Property and Land Tax bill is fully enforced, the government can expect an [annual] increase of BtIOO billion in total tax revenue," he said.

Apart from tax reform, Somchai suggested decentralisation of financial power to the rural areas·in order to empower provincial authorities with the means to spend money on the improvement ofhuman capital.

At the administrative level, he suggested establishment ofan independent committee to oversee spending policy to make sure tax money were properly used. Members of the public should also have more involvement in the formation of the government's policies through methods such as primary voting.

Worawan Chandoevwit, socialsecurity adviser at the TDRI, said social-welfare reform was needed to combat the feeling ofunfairm~ss among the less fortunate . She proposed that people under the universal healthcare policy should be able.to pay more to get a better serVIce.

FIscal budget refom1 Nipon Poapongsakorn, director

of the sectoral economic programme on industrial and rural development policy at the TDRI, suggested reform in fiscal budget-

Corruption and

trQ.nsparency

Harsher punishment Strict legal action and full

enforcemeot . Decentralisation of administrp

tivepower Reform of the Offi(ial

Information Act

Economic inequality·

Basic social-welfare bill Property and Land Tax bill and

progressive taxes . ., Decentralisation of financial

power to provincial authoiities ' Increased public inVestment on

human capital

Government financial diScipline

Reform in fiscal budgeting Ban on populist policy Ban on unlimited off-budget

borrowing Creation of aparliamentary

budget offi~e.

ing, a ban on the use of populist policy, and added transparency and contingent liability to improve the government's .financial discipline. He said the government's practice of unlimited offbudget loans to finance its populist p~licies had diverted funds that could have been used for the development of the country and was tarnishing the Kingdom's competitiveness and growth.

He suggested that fiscal budgeting should be more transparent and proposed the introduction of institutions such as a "parliamentary budget office" to oversee government financial policy.

""" rff11~'VI11 \llAJ 1ru~tJ

BANGKOK POST MARCH 2014b FPO boss paints dark picture with economic outlook GDP growth below 2%

. adiistinct possibility

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSlRI PORNSAWAN NANTHA

The Thai economy will probably grow by lesS than 2% this year ifexports recover toa' slowly, as the political turmoil has delayed budget disbursements for megaprojects and dampened domestic consumption, says a senior Finance Ministry offiCial.

Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the mnustry's FISCa:t Policy Office (FPOj, ~ the poliocat conmct ihat brought antigovernment protesters into the streets has damaged the economy, and the caretaker government is not in a pOSition to move forward with a 350-blllion-baht water management plan and other projects worth a combined 2 uillion baht.

Previously" economists and FPO analysts had hoped that state spending this fiscal year would be the main engine of

economic grO\Vth. But the first five months of fiscal 2014 passed with no sign ofa solution to the political crisis.

"It is obvious that we need to cut our growth projection, as we had taken the huge budget into account in our previous estimation: said Mr Somchai.

In December. the FPO forecast 2014 economic growth in a range of3.5% to 4% and export growthof5.5%, while the Commerce Ministry anticipated 5% growth· in exports.

Mr Somchai said that while the global econo'my has potential for improvement this year, the lag tiroe before purchaSing power shows up in large economies will take a toll on Thai expo/1s. This is mainly due to the dispersion of parts suppliers around the globe.

"It means that our clients can shift their orders to another country if they are unsure about our situation, causing a disruption in logistics; he said.

IfThailand is unable to form a ncwgovemment this year, the country will have trouble in fiscal 2015 starting in October. Fourth-quarter consumption would be

severely hampered because publicspendingis a significant support in times oflower pdvate·sector invesonent.

"Even though public investment accounts for only 17 -18% of GDP, it is crucial for economic development when other sectors are weak." said Mr Somchai.

So far, 40% of the 2.525-trillion;baht expendirure budget has been disbursed. Some 45 billion baht of the total budget cannot be released because it consists of expensive projects requiring cabinet approval.

In line with the detenoratingeconomy. the FPO has voiced concern over the risirtg trend of non-performing loans (NPLs) at state financial institutions and the delay in rice pledging payments to farmers.

The office has begun to monitor the rising pace of NPLs at state banks. 'v\'hile overall NPLs at state banks are a mere 5% of the total, and for commercial banks the average is just 2%, a recent Bank of Tha!land report said bounced cheques had risen to 15% in terms of value from just a one-digit figure in years past. especially cheques from small and medium-sized

enterprises (SMEs). This is a sign that· the crisis may be

spreading frofY) the public' sector and agricuJrure to the broader financial sector.

"Wesignalled the state banks to be alert, even the banks·that have no chief executive yet, and suggested they closely foUow up on their clients' debt-servicing capability," said Mr Somchai.

In the meantime, the Bank ofThalland says net capital outflow ofUS$172 million (5.68 billion baht) in January was far below a net $2.35 billion puUed from the country in December, due to a downshift in foreign investors' seU -off of Thai stocks and bonds and a reduction of hedging activities after the baht's retreat at that time. .

"Capital outflows [in Ja~uaryJ were not substantial;' said Don Nakornthab, director of economic policy at the Bank of Thailand. He noted that foreign direct invesunent in the same month was fairly high at $1.91 billion.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, an assistant governor of the central bank, said capital outflows slowed despite the onset of political violence.

57-03-03 (กรม)57-03-03 (ใบนำส่ง)57-03-03 (กระทรวง)