3 sept 16

54
• Bank Accounting and Fractional Reserve Banking (Review) • Bank Capital and Profitability • The Money Multiplier • Change in Total Deposits • Change in the Money Supply

Upload: mayurmats

Post on 18-Jan-2016

222 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

finance

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 3  Sept 16

• Bank Accounting and Fractional Reserve Banking (Review)

• Bank Capital and Profitability• The Money Multiplier• Change in Total Deposits• Change in the Money Supply

Page 2: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Anything the bank owns

Any amount the bank is owed

DepositsSavings Deposits

Checking Deposits

(Often called “bank capital”)

Page 3: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Page 4: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Reserves

Page 5: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Page 6: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Deposits with the Fed

Page 7: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Deposits with the Fed

Loans

Page 8: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Deposits with the Fed

Loans

Bonds

Page 9: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Deposits with the Fed

Loans

BondsOther Assets

Page 10: 3  Sept 16

Bank Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

ReservesVault Cash

Deposits with the Fed

Loans

BondsOther Assets

Checking Deposits

Savings Deposits

Page 11: 3  Sept 16

The Balance Sheet HAS TO Balance

NW = A – L

A = L + NW (or Capital)

Page 12: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• Remember that net worth equals assets minus liabilities.

• Net worth is referred to as bank capital, or equity capital.

• We can think of capital as the owners’ stake in the bank.

• Capital is the cushion banks have against a sudden drop in the value of their assets or an unexpected withdrawal of liabilities.• It provides some insurance against insolvency.

Page 13: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• An important component of bank capital is loan loss reserves:• Loan loss reserves are an amount the bank sets

aside to cover potential losses from defaulted loans.

• At some point the bank gives up hope a loan will be repaid and it is written off, or erased from the bank’s balance sheet.

• At this point, the loan loss reserve is reduced by the amount of the loan that has defaulted.

Page 14: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• The ratio of debt to equity in the U.S. banking system was about 8 to 1 in January 2013.

• Although that is a substantial amount of leverage, it is nearly 25% below the average commercial bank leverage ratio that prevailed prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2009.• Debt-to-equity ratio for nonfinancial business in the

U.S. is less than 1 to 1.• Household leverage is roughly 1/3 to 1.

• Leverage increases risk AND expected return.

Page 15: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• One of the explanations for the relatively high degree of leverage in banking is the existence of government guarantees like deposit insurance.• These government guarantees allow banks to

capture the benefits of risk taking without subjecting depositors to potential losses.

Page 16: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

There are several measures of bank profitability.

1. Return on assets (ROA).• ROA is the bank’s profit left after taxes

divided by the bank’s total assets.

• It is a measure of how efficiently a particular banks uses its assets.

• This is less important to bank owners than the return on their own investment.

Net profit after taxes

Total bank assetsROA

Page 17: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

2. The bank’s return to its owners is measured by the return on equity (ROE).• This is the bank’s net profit after taxes divided

by the bank’s capital.

• ROA and ROE are related to leverage.• One measure of leverage is the ratio of

banks assets to bank capital.• Multiplying ROA by this ratio yields ROE.

Net profit after taxes

Bank capitalROE

Page 18: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

ROE Net profit after taxes

Bank Capital

ROA *Bank Assets

Bank Capital

Net profit after taxes

Total bank assets*

Bank Assets

Bank Capital

Net profit after taxes

Bank capitalROE

Page 19: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• Prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the typical U.S. bank has a ROA of about 1.3%.

• For large banks, the ROE tends to be higher than for small banks, suggesting greater leverage, a riskier mix of assets, or the existence of significant economies to scale in banking.• The poor performance during the crisis and

moderate returns after, suggests their high returns were at least partly due to more leverage or a riskier mix of assets.

Page 20: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

3. The final measure of bank profitability is net interest income.• This is related to the fact that banks pay interest on

their liabilities and receive interest on their assets.• Deposits and bank borrowing rate interest expenses;

securities and loans generate interest income.

• The difference between the two is net interest income.

Page 21: 3  Sept 16

Bank Capital and Profitability

• Net interest income can also be expressed as a percentage of total assets to yield: net interest margin.• This is the bank’s interest rate spread - the

weighted average difference between the interest rate received on assets and the interest rate paid for liabilities.

• Well-run banks have a high net interest income and a high net interest margin.• If a bank’s net interest margin is currently

improving, its profitability is likely to improve in the future.

Page 22: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in

Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves

Loans

Checking Deposits

Page 23: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in

Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$10K Checking Deposits +$10K

Page 24: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit

Page 25: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in

Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$10K

- New Loans $9K

Checking Deposits +$10K

Page 26: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in

Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$10K

-New Loans $ 9K

Loans +$ 9K

Checking Deposits +$10K

Page 27: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in

Bank of AmericaFinal Changes in Balance Sheet

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$1K

Loans +$9K

Checking Deposits +$10K

Page 28: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier$9,000 loaned out by BOA ends up in

Cambridge Savings Bank

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$9K

Loans

Checking Deposits +$9K

Page 29: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA

$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB

Page 30: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier: Step 2Final Balance Sheet of Cambridge

Savings Bank

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital

Reserves +$ 900

Loans +$ 8,100

Checking Deposits +$9K

Page 31: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA

$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB

$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank

Page 32: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA

$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB

$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank

$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank

Page 33: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA

$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB

$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank

$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank

$ 6,561 Deposit in Capital One

Page 34: 3  Sept 16

Total New Deposits

$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA

$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB

$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank

$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank

$ 6,561 Deposit in Capital One

Page 35: 3  Sept 16

Money Multiplier Process

Deposit → Loan

→ Deposit → Loan

→ Deposit → Loan

→ . . . . etc.

Page 36: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Deposits

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R

where R = the reserve requirement

If E = the percentage of their deposits banks are holding as excess reserves……

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

is called the "money multiplier"R+E

1

R+E

Page 37: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in the Money Supply

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

is called the "money multiplier"R+E

1

R+E

Money Supply Total Deposits

Cash held by the public

Page 38: 3  Sept 16

Two Fundamental Equations of Money Creation

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

Money Supply Total Deposits

Cash held by the public

Page 39: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 0%

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$10,0001

.1+0

$10,000 10

$100,000

Page 40: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$100,000

Money Supply Total Deposits

Cash held by the public

$100,000 ($10,000)

$90,000

Page 41: 3  Sept 16

Excess Reserves Before and During the Crisis

Page 42: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

What if E = 10%?

Money multiplier 1

R+E

1

.1+.1

1

.2

5

R still = 10%

Page 43: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 10%

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$10,0001

.1+.1

$10,000 5

$50,000

Page 44: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$50,000

Money Supply Total Deposits

Cash held by the public

$50,000 ($10,000)

$40,000

Page 45: 3  Sept 16

Reverse Money Multiplier Process

What happens if somebody withdraws $10,000 from the bank?

Sets in motion the reverse money multiplier process

Page 46: 3  Sept 16

Someone Withdraws $10,000 from Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Reserves −$10,000 Deposits −$10,000

Required Reserves ↓by $1,000

Actual Reserves ↓by $10,000

Bank is $9,000 short of reserves

Page 47: 3  Sept 16

Reverse Money Multiplier Process

Four options when a bank is short of reserves:

1. Borrow the needed reserves from another bank on the “Fed Funds” market

2. Borrow the needed reserves from the Fed at the “discount window”

3. Reduce loans

4. Sell securities (bonds)

Eventually, some bank will need to do (3) or (4)

Page 48: 3  Sept 16

Bank of America

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Reserves +$9,000

Loans −$9,000

Page 49: 3  Sept 16

Citizen’s Bank

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Reserves −$9,000 Deposits −$9,000

Bank is $8,100 short of reserves

Page 50: 3  Sept 16

Sovereign Bank

Assets (A) Liabilities (L)

Bank Capital (= A – L)

Reserves −$8,100 Deposits −$8,100

Bank is $7,290 short of reserves

Page 51: 3  Sept 16

Reverse Money Multiplier Process

Withdrawal → Loan reduction

→ Withdrawal → Loan reduction

→ Withdrawal → Loan reduction

→ . . . . etc.

Page 52: 3  Sept 16

Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:

$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 0%

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$10,0001

.1+0

$10,000 10

$100,000

Page 53: 3  Sept 16

Reverse Money Multiplier ProcessExample:

$10,000 WithdrawalR = 10%E = 0%

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$10,0001

.1+0

$10,000 10

Page 54: 3  Sept 16

Reverse Money Multiplier ProcessExample:

Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1

R+E

$100,000

Money Supply Total Deposits

Cash held by the public

$100,000 $10,000

$90,000