3 q11 algeria mobile operator forecast executive summary

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3Q.2011 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast Algeria to have 37.8 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Djezzy (Orascom Telecom) taking 45% market share October 2011

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This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Algeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Algeria’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Operators covered for Algeria include: Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie), Mobilis (Algérie Télécom), and Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast include: · Subscriber growth is slowing down in Algeria. The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.0% in 2Q.2011, down from 12.5% in 2Q.2010. Djezzy saw its subscriber growth (YoY) increase from 4.1% in 2Q.2010 to 5.4% in 2Q.2011. Subscriber growth at Mobilis was 11.8% in 2Q.2011, up from 9.2% in 2Q.2010. Subscriber growth at Nedjma was 0.4% in 2Q.2011, significantly down from 38.6%. · The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 10.87 in 2Q.2011, up +6.8% YoY. At the operator level, Djezzy’s monthly ARPU increased by 4.2% (YoY) to reach US$ 9.90 in 2Q.2011. ARPU growth (YoY) at Mobilis increased from -8.6% in 2Q.2010 to 9.6% in 2Q.2011. ARPU growth at Nedjma jumped significantly from -18.5% in 2Q.2010 to 39.0% in 2Q.2011.

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Page 1: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

3Q.2011 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast Algeria to have 37.8 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Djezzy (Orascom Telecom) taking 45% market share

October 2011

Page 2: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IN THE ALGERIAN WIRELESS MARKET IS ABOUT 6%

§ The operator­wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.0% in 2Q.2011, down from 12.5% in 2Q.2010.

§ Djezzy saw its subscriber growth (YoY) increase from 4.1% in 2Q.2010 to 5.4% in 2Q.2011.

§ Subscriber growth at Mobilis was 11.8% in 2Q.2011, up from 9.2% in 2Q.2010.

§ Subscriber growth at Nedjma was 0.4% in 2Q.2011, significantly down from 38.6%.

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4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie) Mobilis (Algérie Télécom)

Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie) Industry Total

Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Subscriber growth decreases in Algeria 6.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011

Page 3: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN ALGERIA CONTINUES TO INCREASE

§ The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 10.87 in 2Q.2011, up +6.8% YoY.

§ At the operator level, Djezzy’s monthly ARPU increased by 4.2% (YoY) to reach US$ 9.90 in 2Q.2011.

§ ARPU growth (YoY) at Mobilis increased from ­8.6% in 2Q.2010 to 9.6% in 2Q.2011.

§ ARPU growth at Nedjma jumped significantly from ­18.5% in 2Q.2010 to 39.0% in 2Q.2011.

Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

ARPU growth in Algeria turned positive 6.8% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011

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Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie) Mobilis (Algérie Télécom)

Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie) Industry Total

Page 4: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

19.3% INDUSTRY AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH IN 2Q.2011

• The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) continues to increase. In 2Q.2011, the industry average EBITDA growth was 19.3%, up from ­8.2% in 2Q.2010.

• Djezzy’s EBITDA growth was 14.9% in 2Q 2011, up from ­15.2% in 2Q 2010.

• On the other hand, EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Nedjma was 35.6% in 2Q.2011 (down from 43.9% in 2Q.2010). It continues to be higher than that of Djezzy.

Chart 3: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Positive EBITDA growth at Djezzy and Nedjma in 2Q.2011

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Industry Total

Page 5: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

§ We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Algeria will increase from 32.8 million in the end of 2010 to 37.8 million in the end of 2015.

§ Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Djezzy will have approximately 16.9 million mobile subscribers in 2015.

§ In our view, Djezzy will continue to hold a dominant position in Algeria with a 44.7% market share in 2015.

§ On the other hand, we forecast that Mobilis will have a 30.3% market share in 2015.

Chart 4: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F)

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Algeria to reach 37.8 million in 2015

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Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie)

Mobilis (Algérie Télécom) Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie)

Page 6: 3 Q11 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

THE OPERATOR­WIDE AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL WILL BE APPROXIMATELY $11 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS

§ We forecast that the industry average ARPU will be approximately $11 per month in 2013.

§ We expect that Mobilis’s ARPU level will continue to be higher than those of Djezzy and Nedjma over the forecast period.

§ Our forecasting model predicts that Djezzy’s monthly ARPU will be about $9.60 in 2013.

Chart 5: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) per month (CY09 – CY13F), USD

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? ARPU levels in Algeria to remain at about $11

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ARPU (U

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Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie) Mobilis (Algérie Télécom) Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie) Average

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

§ Djezzy will continue to be the operator with the highest level of profitability in Algeria’s wireless market over the forecast period.

§ Our model is predicting that Djezzy’s EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be approximately 59% over the next two years.

§ On the other hand, we expect that Nedjma’s EBITDA margins will remain stable approximately at 35% from 2012 to 2013.

Chart 6: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), %

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Djezzy to enjoy the highest profitability

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Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie) Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie) Average

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved.

IE Market Research What do we do?

§ We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: § Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world

§ With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors

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About IEMR

§ Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure

Vendors

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About IEMR

§ And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers

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