3 q11 austria mobile operator forecast executive summary

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3Q.2011 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast Austria will have 14 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Orange taking 41% market share October 2011

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This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Austria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Austria’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Operators covered for Austria include: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group) (A1), T-Mobile Austria (Deutsche Telekom AG), Orange Austria (Connect Austria), and Hutchison 3G Austria GmbH (Drei). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast include: · Subscriber growth is slowing down in Austria. The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.2% in 2Q.2011, down from 8.5% in 2Q.2010. The largest operator, mobilkom, saw its subscriber growth (YoY) decline from 7.3% in 2Q.2010 to 4.2% in 2Q.2011. T-Mobile\'s subscriber growth decreased from 7.4% in 2Q.2010 to 6.2% in 2Q.2011. Hutchison’s subscriber growth declined from 25.9% in 2Q.2010 to 9.7% in 2Q.2011. · ARPU growth in Austria remains negative. The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 29.04 in 2Q.2011, down -7.5% YoY. The largest two wireless carriers in Austria continue to lower their ARPUs. ARPU growth rate (YoY) at mobilkom was -9.3% in 2Q.2011 (up from -11.4% in 2Q.2010). T-Mobile’s monthly ARPU declined by -9.5% (YoY) to reach US$ 27.35 in 2Q.2011.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 3 Q11 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

3Q.2011 Austria Mobile Operator ForecastAustria will have 14 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Orange taking 41% market share

October 2011

Page 2: 3 Q11 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IN AUSTRIA’S WIRELESS MARKET IS AT 6%-7%

The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.2% in 2Q.2011, down from 8.5% in 2Q.2010.

The largest operator, mobilkom, saw its subscriber growth (YoY) decline from 7.3% in 2Q.2010 to 4.2% in 2Q.2011.

T-Mobile's subscriber growth decreased from 7.4% in 2Q.2010 to 6.2% in 2Q.2011.

Hutchison’s subscriber growth declined from 25.9% in 2Q.2010 to 9.7% in 2Q.2011.

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Hutchison Industry Total

Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Subscriber growth is declining in Austria+6.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN AUSTRIA’S MOBILE MARKET CONTINUES TO INCREASE

The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 29.04 in 2Q.2011, down -7.5% YoY.

The largest two wireless carriers in Austria continue to lower their ARPUs.

ARPU growth rate (YoY) at mobilkomwas -9.3% in 2Q.2011 (up from -11.4% in 2Q.2010). T-Mobile’s monthly ARPU declined by -9.5% (YoY) to reach US$ 27.35 in 2Q.2011.

ARPU growth (YoY) at Hutchison decreased to -3.8% in 2Q.2011 (down from 23.2% in 2Q.2010).

Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

ARPU growth in Austria remains negative-7.5% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Hutchison Industry Total

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

The operator-wide average Minute of Use (MOU) per subscriber was 184 minutes per month in 2Q.2011, down -2.6% YoY.

MOU/Sub growth at mobilkom was -3.1% in 2Q.2011, down from -2.4% in 2Q.2010.

MOU per subscriber at mobilkom and T-Mobile was 155 minutes and 224 minutes respectively in 2Q.2011.

Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Minutes of Use per Subscriber is decreasingIndustry average MOU/Sub is 184 minutes per month

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mobilkom T-Mobile Industry Total

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

-4.3% INDUSTRY AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH IN 2Q.2011

• The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was -4.3%, up from -7.6% in 2Q.2010.

• EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at mobilkom was -11.1% in 2Q.2011 (down from 6.1% in 2Q.2010) and it was -4.5% at Orange Austria (down from -4.3% in 2Q.2010).

• On the other hand, T-Mobile's EBITDA growth jumped from -12.9% in 2Q.2010 to 11.5% in 2Q.2011.

Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Negative EBITDA growth at mobilkom and Orange in 2Q.2011

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Industry Total

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Austria will increase from 12.2 million in the end of 2010 to 14.1 million in the end of 2015.

Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that mobilkom will have approximately 5.7 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015. In our view, mobilkom will continue to hold a dominant position in the Austria market with a 40.9% market share in 2015.

Our model forecasts that T-Mobile will have 4.1 million wireless subscriber connections in 2015 (29.3% market share).

We expect that Hutchison will have 1.3 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 (9.3% market share).

Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F)

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Austria to reach 14.1 million in 2015

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Hutchison

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO REMAIN AT EUR 19 – EUR 20 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS

Our forecasting model does not predict major changes in the industry average ARPU for the next two years.

The industry average ARPU will be approximately EUR 19.60 per month in 2013, according to our model.

We expect that Hutchison’s ARPU level will be higher than those of mobilkom, T-Mobile, and Orange over the next two years.

Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) per month (CY09 – CY13F), EUR

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?The industry-average ARPU level in Austria to decrease slightly

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Hutchison Average

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

mobilkom will be enjoying the highest level of profitability in Austria’s wireless market during the forecast period.

Our model is predicting that mobilkom’s EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain stable at about 37% from 2012 to 2013.

We forecast that T-Mobile’s EBITDA margin will be about 30.6% in 2013.

Orange’s EBITDA margin will remain lower than those of its competitors at about 27% in 2013.

Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), %

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? mobilkom to enjoy the highest profitability

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mobilkom T-Mobile Orange Average

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© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

IE Market ResearchWhat do we do?

We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by:

Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world

With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors

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About IEMR

Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . .Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure

Vendors

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About IEMR

And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers

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The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing in this report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly available and that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.

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