27th usaee/iaee north american conference usaee/iaee north american conference hilton houston post...
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"Developing & Delivering Affordable Energy in the 21st Century"
27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Hilton Houston Post Oak Hotel, Houston, Texas - September 16-19, 2007
Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos
Associate Professor IEE - USP
Email: [email protected]: (55-11) 3091 - 2641
DISCUSSING BRAZIL’S NUCLEAR FUTURE
Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos , IEE - , 55-11-4153-1693,
Paul Louis Poulallion, SINDE, 55-21-2240-5140,
Murilo Tadeu Werneck Fagá, IEE - , 55-11-3091-2634,
SUMMARY
Initial thoughts
International Outlook
The Brazilian reality
Proposing a New Nuclear Program
Conclusions
20 de setembro de 2007 3
Initial Thoughts
The revival of nuclear energy
Arguments being used
Initial Thoughts
20 de setembro de 2007 5
From the BAD to the GOOD?
Since the Three Mile Island accident in 1979.Major safety concerns and financial troubles in the main
Western countries.The suffering of Nuclear Energy.
TODAY - The picture seems more favorably to nuclear. Political and economic situation improved.Increasing social acceptance.
Revival of nuclear in the major Western countries?
Initial Thoughts
20 de setembro de 2007 6
Arguments for the change?
Convergence between ENERGY SECURITY & ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY.
Growing concerns with climate changes. “Scaring mask” passed to the Fossil-fuel industries.
Worries with energy security. Increasing perception of risk in the electricity supply.Risks in global energy transactions.
International Outlook
Asia & othersWestern EuropeUSA
International Outlook
20 de setembro de 2007 8
The uncertain return to Nuclear?
Asia & others – Nuclear energy never ruled out.1985 to 2005 – Nuclear keeps its 15% of MTK ShareTremendous growing plan – From 8GW (2004) to 150GW (2050)
Sweden / Germany – Abandoning the abandon. UK – Resuming the construction of NEW CAPACITY.FRANCE – The Global Nuclear Icon
USA – The public opinion changing the most. Nuclear now seen as “ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIEND”.THE ENERGY POLICY ACT 2005.
International Outlook
20 de setembro de 2007 9
Close eyes in the USA experience …Still largest Nuclear Industry in the world.About 100 reactors – 1/3 of world installed nuclear capacity.2004`s total production – 814 TWh (20% of Mkt Share).
Existing reactors operating just fine – Low cost energy.
No new nuclear reactor built in the USA in the last 20 years.Still NO NEW CONSTRUCTION
AEO2007`s reference case:Nuclear Mkt share declines - 19% (2005) to 15% (2030).Plants uprates balance retirements.
Only from 9 to 11.5GW of new capacity expected.
The Brazilian Reality
The revival of the nuclear debateThe international influence
Energy securityEnvironmental security
The Brazilian Reality
20 de setembro de 2007 11
Proposing a New Nuclear Program …
Expected new nuclear power capacity in Brazil – 2007 to 2030 (in MW)
Scenarios: 2007 – 2015 2016 – 2020 2021 – 2025 2026 – 2030 2016 - 2030
LOW 1360 (Angra III) 1000 1000 2000 4000
MEDIUM 1360 (Angra III) 1000 2000 3000 6000
HIGH 1360 (Angra III) 2000 3000 3000 8000
Source: NEP2006 – EPE
By 2030 – Adding from 4 to 8 GW of new nuclear capacity. Equivalent to EIA`s projections to the USA
Nuclear as a Historical project in Brazil
The Brazilian Reality
20 de setembro de 2007 12
From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro …
Source: BEN2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Installed Capacity ‐Annual expansions of Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)
"Total expansion of the system"
"Hydropower expansion"
"Total thermal power expansion"
"Nuclear power expansion"
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Power Effectively Generated ‐Annual expansions Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear
vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)
Total expansion of the system
Hydropower expansion
Total thermal power expansion
Nuclear power expansion
Source: BEN2006
The Brazilian Reality
20 de setembro de 2007 13
From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro …
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Installed Capacity ‐Annual expansions of Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)
"Total expansion of the system"
"Hydropower expansion"
"Total thermal power expansion"
"Nuclear power expansion"
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Power Effectively Generated ‐Annual expansions Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear
vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)
Total expansion of the system
Hydropower expansion
Total thermal power expansion
Nuclear power expansion
Source: BEN2006
Source: BEN2006
20 de setembro de 2007 14
The Brazilian Reality
Hydropower decreasing Mkt Share in installed capacity.Recently, increasing in power effectively generated.
Hydro system`s utilization factor increased - 49% (2001) to 54 (2005). Thermal system`s utilization factor decreased – 50 (2001) to 34% (2005). The whole system`s utilization factor – First declined 48% (2002) – Then
increased up to 2005 – But still very low.
Thermal investments:Helped to increase the electricity supply security.Damaged the efficiency in the overall capital allocation.
Balancing the Energy Security argument of the New Nuclear Program and Angra III
More Nuclear leading to higher efficiency?
The Brazilian Reality
20 de setembro de 2007 15
The Environmental Argument …
Source: ANEEL – 2002 - Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt://www.aneel.gov.br
Ministério do Meio Ambiente – www.mma.gov.br
MinimumLowMediumHigh
Maximum
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION
The Brazilian Reality
20 de setembro de 2007 16
The Environmental Argument …
MinimumLowMediumHigh
Maximum
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION
Source: ANEEL – 2002 - Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt://www.aneel.gov.br
Ministério do Meio Ambiente – www.mma.gov.br
20 de setembro de 2007 17
The Brazilian Reality
Nuclear in Brazil is less effective in reducing carbon emissions.
Nuclear X Large Amazon Hydro Projects is flaw….
Many other hydro options still environmental sounding.
Electricity demand restructuring strongly needed.
Environmental argument balanced against the convergence
with the dominant hydro system.
Major nuclear-related environmental issues yet not solved –
Final Disposal of nuclear wastes.
Balancing the Environmental Argument …
Proposing a New Nuclear Program
Technology driverThe full command of the Nuclear Fuel CycleNaval rather than Energy reactorsPartnering wiht neighboring countries
20 de setembro de 2007 19
Proposing a New Nuclear Program
Based on Angra III`s official cost numbers …. Nuclear energy is still not competitive in Brazil.
Nuclear looses for HYDRO; BIOMASS; OIL (in the regulated and free markets).
Nuclear - Driven by politics rather than economics:
Low transparence and no independent scrutiny.
Lack of private developers – Low reliability.
Technical expertise lost.
The real competitiveness of nuclear in Brazil?
20 de setembro de 2007 20Source: URANIUM INFORMATION CENTRE Ltd.
The command of the various steps that together make up
the entire Nuclear Fuel Cycle.
Rather focusing on technology …Proposing a New Nuclear Program
20 de setembro de 2007 21
Rather focusing on technology …
Source: BEN2006
Proposing a New Nuclear Program
20 de setembro de 2007 22
Industrial-scale uranium enrichment - The critical step .Focus on Nuclear Self-sufficiency (feeding Angra I and II).Competitiveness is less critical.
Large uranium reserves – Exporting added value products rather than commodities.
Domestic use of nuclear energy:
Centered on Naval rather than Energy applications.
Integration effort with neighboring countries.
“Atoms for a LATIN PEACE”.
No need of ANGRA III ….Proposing a New Nuclear Program
CONCLUSIONS
InternationalDomestic
20 de setembro de 2007 24
Nuclear always booming eastward.Apparent return westward.Based on environmental + energy security issues.
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTIES.
Nuclear definitively not an energy option.
Focuses on technology and naval applications much less risky.
Increasing nuclear security.
Rise Regional Integration back to the political agenda.
International ….Conclusions
Domestic … Less uncertainties …