22.chapter 11 probability_l2_ 2012 (2013_03_06 05_48_00 utc)
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Chapter 11 Probability(Week 12-13)
Lecture 2: - Probability of Events
- Counting Rule
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Learning Objectives
At the end of the session student should be able to:
- Determine the probability of events- Interpret and understand the properties of probability
and utilize them in solving problems- Use multiplication rule (one type of counting rule) to find
the number of ways and possible outcomes of a given
random experiment.
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Probability of Events
The objective of probability is to assign to each event, say E, a number P(E), called the probability of E which will give a precise measure of the chance that E will occur.
The probability of any event E, P(E) = n/N
where n : number of times we observe the event (frequency)
N : a very large number of trials
Q: In the experiment tossing a die repeately, in the long run, what would we expect P(E1) (probability of number 1 occurs) equal to?
( A: 1/6)
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Definition of Probability
A probability P is a rule ( or function) which assigns a number between 0 and 1 to each event and satisfies:
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 for any event E
P(Ø ) = 0 , P(S) = 1,
If A1 , A2 , … is an infinite collection of mutually exclusive events, then
1 2 1 2( ...) ( ) ( ) ...P A A P A P A
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The probability of the complement of any event A is given as
Example: If P(rain tomorrow) = 0.6 then P(no rain tomorrow) = 0.4
Other notations for complement: Ac or Ā
( ') 1 ( )P A P A
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General Addition Law
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space S.
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
Thus
This can be expanded to consider more than two mutually exclusive events.
P(A B) P(A) P(B) P(A B)
P(A B) 0
P(A B) P(A) P(B)
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Example 3: Samples of building materials from three suppliers are
classified for conformance to air-quality specifications.
The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:
Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier R, and B denote
the event that a sample conforms to the specifications. If sample is
selected at random, determine the following probabilities: (a) P(A) (b) P(B) (c) P(B’) (d) P(AUB) (e) P(AB) (f) P(AUB’)
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Conforms
Yes No
SupplierR 30 10
S 22 8
T 25 5
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A : sample from supplier R, and
B : sample conforms to the specifications
a. P(A) = 40/100 = 0.4
b. P(B) = 77/100 = 0.77
c. P(B’) = 23/100 = 0.23
d. P(AUB) = 87/100 = 0.87
e. P(AB) = 30/100 = 0.3
f. P(AUB’) = 53/100 = 0.53
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Example 4.
In a residential suburb, 60% of all households subscribe
to the metro newspaper published in a nearby city, 80%
subscribe to the local paper, and 50% of all households
subscribe to both papers. Draw a Venn diagram for this
problem. If a household is selected at random, what is
the probability that it subscribes to:
a) at least one of the two newspapers b) exactly one of the two newspapers
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A : subscribe metro
B : subscribe local
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A
B
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.5
a. P(AUB) = 0.9
b. P(AB’UA’UB)=P(AB’)+P(A’B = 0.1+0.3 = 0.4
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Counting Rule
P(A) = n(A) / n(S)
The probability of an event A equals the number of outcomes (sample points) contained in A divided by the total number of possible
outcomes. Important condition: all outcomes are equally likely to occur. Inefficient when n(S) is large.
Counting Rule: Eliminates the need for listing each simple event and help to easily assign probabilities to various events when the outcomes are equally likely.
Especially helpful if the sample space is quite large.
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Counting Rule: Product (Multiplication) Rule If there are k elements ( or things) to choose
and there are n1 choices for the first element,
n2 for the second element, and so on to nk choices for the kth element,
then the number of possible ways of selecting them is
Only applies when elements are different or the order of elements matters.
1 2 ... kn n n
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Example 5: In a student organization election, we want to
elect one president from five candidates, one
vice president from six candidates, and one
secretary from three candidates. How many
possible outcomes?
13Apr 8, 2023
90 5X6X3 are outcomes Possible
:Solution
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Example 6:A chemical engineer wishes to conduct an
experiment to determine how these four factors
affect the quality of the coating. She is interested
in comparing three charge levels, five density
levels, four temperature levels, and three speed
levels. How many experimental conditions are
possible?
14Apr 8, 2023
180 3X5X4X3 are outcomes Possible
:Solution