21st century human capital challenges and opportunities
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Edwin Mourino This session will address the perfect storm that is brewing in the 21st-century workplace that includes a confluence of such factors as: -An aging society and workforce. -New workplace dynamics to accommodate a younger generations of workers. -Educational gaps between industry needs and graduating candidates. -The rapid pace of technology changes.TRANSCRIPT
The Perfect Storm
Human Capital Challenges & Opportunities
in the 21st Century
EDWIN MOURIÑO-RUIZ, PH.D.
Today & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be Different
Global/USDemographic
Changes
Leader-EmployeeChanges
OrganizationalChanges
Technological Changes
WorkplaceChanges
EducationalChanges
Challenges
EvolvingOrganizations
3
Technology Timeline & Impact
Radio
TV
Internet
Ipod
13
4
5.4
40 Yrs 30 Yrs 20 Yrs 10 Yrs
38
Pace of technological change accelerate with each new generation of discoveries and applications
1. $38 billion annual revenue generated by 2015 in Smartphone & Tablet apps. 2. Tablets will overtake desktop sales by 20153. More people in U.S. browse the Web from an iPad vs Desktop
9B
50M
100M
4
“When I wrote The World is Flat,
• Facebook didn’t exist (or at least for most Americans),
• Twitter was a sound,
• The Cloud was in the sky,
• 4G was a parking space,
• LinkedIn was a prison,
• Applications is what you sent to college,
• and for most people Skype was a typo”.
Thomas Friedman, on Meet the Press, Sept., 4th, 2011
That all happened in just the last seven years. And what it's done is taken the world from connected to hyperconnected. And that's created a huge opportunity and a huge challenge.
https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140704000621-19686690-understanding-the-internet-of-everything?trk=tod-posts-recentPosts-
ptlt
Technology’s Impact in the 21st Century:A New Business Perspective & Paradigm Shift – We’re not in Kansas Anymore
6
Technology increasingly dominates both the Economy and Society
Hollywood’s IT Implications New & Evolving Technology in the 21st Century
Future Workforce - Supply is Finite STEM Issues
Source-Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Cmte on Prospering in the Global Economy of the 21 st Century, Norm Augustine, et alThe Talent Hunters: The US, China, and India in the battle over skills and jobs. Edward E. Gordon, 2012
U.S. ranked 26th out of 34 countries in math
38% of Ph.D. in science in US are foreign born
80% graduate from H.S. and we’re 16th in college education in the world
U.S. has highest rate of entrance into college – lowest rate to complete
By 2018, U.S. will need 22 million college educated and will be 3 million short
Earning a living in the 21st Century will require more education not less
New Media Zombies – lack basic academic, interpersonal, and critical thinking skills
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sir+ken+robinson+changing+education+paradigms&FORM=VIRE1#view=detail&mid=3339F149DE25F841D21C3339F149DE25F841D21C
8
The day Einstein feared… Media Zombies???
Having dinner out with your friends.
Out on a date.
Driving around with friends.
At the beach with friends.
"It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity.” Albert Einstein
Skills for the future
Critical Thinking and Problem Solving
Collaboration Initiative Interpersonal
Skills
9
In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World …
04/11/2023 9Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 60+ Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
10
. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
04/11/2023Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 60+ 2025Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
The Future Demographic Map
11
Potential population in working age group (2020)
Note: Potential surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15-59) to total population constantSource: U.S. Census Bureau; BCG Analysis – Presentation by Tassu Shervani, Ph.D.
Spain
UK
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
US
Germany
Ireland
Russia
Japan
China
Australia
Egypt Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines 5Mn
India
Labor Shortages and Avenues of Supply
2.1 is Replacement Rate No.
Spain 1.1
Germany 1.4
China 1.4
U.S. 2.0
India 2.8
Mexico 2.8
Japan 1.3
12
Common Denominator???
Alfonso Ribeiro Pablo Picasso Vicente Fox Roberto Clemente Jessica Elba Ricardo Montalban Raquel Welch
Cameron Diaz Cesar Romero Rita Hayworth Emilio Estevez Carolina Herrera Julio Iglesias Sammy Davis Jr.
Zoe Saldana Martin Sheen Anthony Quinn Lynda Carter Frankie Muñiz Walt Disney Oscar de la Renta
Jose Ferrer Bruno Mars William Levy Sofia Vergara Shakira Pablo Casal Sammy Sosa
Habla Español?
13
Hispanic Perspectives and Implications
Facts
44.7 mil
$1 Trillion impact on orgs
US Workforce 25%
Average Age27 compared to 401-1 & 1-8
Education58% H.S.12% Bachelors10% Masters1% Doctorates
In 2017 Latinos will be the majority of entrants the U.S. workforce.
14
Changing WorkforceFour Generations At
Work Veterans (5% workforce, Age 61+)
Dignity – respect and mine for knowledge, Mentor
Boomers (45% workforce, Ages 43--61)
Passion – meaningful work
X’ers (40% workforce, Ages 30-42)
Careers – keep them challenged and learning
Y’ers (10% workforce, Ages <29)
Opportunity – exercise intellectual curiosity and work in teams
14
Source: “Love “Em or Lose “Em” – 26 Strategies that WorkPresented by Human Resource Institute (HRI), 2005Different Communication modes being used
2020 Group
15
Mature workers Essential for OrganizationsNet-Generation, Gen Y, Millennials
• Baby Boomers• Next 20 yrs. 80% of workforce
growth over 50
• Over 70% to continue wkng after retirement
• Avg. Life Expectancy: 1900– 47 2011– 80
• Increasingly more are “Working for a Purpose”
• AARP Best Employer List
• Two experienced for one inexperienced
• 8 Net Gen Norms• Freedom
• Customize and Personalize
• New Scrutinizers
• Corporate Integrity & Openness
• Entertainment & Play @ work
• Collaboration & Relationship Gen
• Speed
• InnovatorsAs the population ages, organizations of the future will no longer be able to rely just on the younger workers.
Aka-Social Cyborg
16
Leadership Development: A Critical InvestmentLeadership Development: A Critical Investment
79% of CEOs believe ability to develop leaders is one of the most important factors for competitive advantage Center for Creative Leadership, 2005
In spite of:
65,000 books on leadership
Billions spent on leadership development
The present situation is that…
Majority of people trust a stranger more than their boss (HBR, Jun 2009)
65% of people prefer a better boss over a raise
79% of CEOs believe ability to develop leaders is one of the most important factors for competitive advantage Center for Creative Leadership, 2005
In spite of:
65,000 books on leadership
Billions spent on leadership development
The present situation is that…
Majority of people trust a stranger more than their boss (HBR, Jun 2009)
65% of people prefer a better boss over a raise
• Lacked respect / support• Lacked leadership skills• Not recognized for my
contribution• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee relations• Incompetent• Limited training opportunities
• Lacked respect / support• Lacked leadership skills• Not recognized for my
contribution• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee relations• Incompetent• Limited training opportunities
51% Supervisor
17
The State of Managing Organizational Change
1. 90% of all companies fail to execute strategy successfully - Balanced Scorecard Collaborative
2. 60% to 70% of technology insertions are ineffective – SEI
3. $75 billion spent annually on failed IT projects and poor management is the culprit - Gartner, Inc.
4. Eight of the 10 largest mergers over the last 10 years failed, destroying $789 billion in shareholder wealth - Fast Company
Why businesses need to always adapt and change
• Only 70 of the Fortune 500 that appeared in 1955 still exist
• Nearly 2000 companies have come and gone since then
• Corporate life expectancy was 75 years and now its less then 15 and declining
• Former Organizations (Extinction Event)• Kodak
• Borders Books
• Circuit City
• Eastern Airlines
• Blockbuster
• Montgomery Wards
• Enron
• Woolworths
• Pan Am
• Arthur Andersen
• New Organizations (Code Halos*)• Pandora
• Amazon
• Netflix
• Microsoft
• Apple
• Bing
• Starbucks
• BestBuy
• Zappos
*Code Halos Connect Companies, Customers, Devices, Employees and Partners-critical to gaining new business value. SMAC - Social, Mobile, Analytic technology, Cloud Computing
GOODBYE TO 20 T H CENTURY JOBS
1. Top down hierarchies
2. Competing for market share
3. Silo/function-based work
4. Organization-centric
5. Command & Control
6. Hierarchy
7. Work-life balance
8. 30 years in one career
HELLO TO 21S T CENTURY WORK
1. Nimble orgs, transparent communications
2. Creating new markets
3. Project-based work
4. People-centric
5. Trust-based
6. Networks & Relationships
7. Life-work
8. 10+ Careers by 40
“The future starts today, not tomorrow.” John Paul II
Organizational Contradictions & Learning Opportunities
• Innovation and Creativity
• Engaged workforce
• Effective leaders
• Successful Change
• Collaboration and critical thinkers
• Bureaucratic and outdated practices
• Downsizing and ranking
• “Peter Principle” practices
• Flawed and ineffective practices
• Outdated educational framework
“The only sustainable competitive advantage is an organization's ability to learn faster than the competition.” ― Peter M. Senge
21
So What…
“The Significant Problems We Have Cannot Be Solved at the Same Level of Thinking with Which We Created Them.”
-- Albert Einstein
“Tomorrow’s Companies will
need to have the brains of a
Business School Graduate and
the heart of a Social Worker”
Thomas Friedman“The World is Flat”
22
FUTURE Considerations, Implications, & Recommendations for Organizations
Foresee how your organization is ready (or not)
Unexpected should be expected
Trust and Transparency is fundamental
Underestimate these changes at your own risk
Reinvent, Retool, and Reskill
Engaging your workforce is imperative
23
Changes in the 21st Century
Global/USDemographic Changes
Leader-EmployeeChanges
OrganizationalChanges
Technological Changes
WorkplaceChanges
EducationalChanges
Challenges
Today & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be DifferentToday & Tomorrow’s Workplace will be Different
Have a great Conference & FutureThank you!
The mind is everythingWhat you think-you become
Buddha
Edwin Mouriño-Ruiz, Ph.D.
[email protected]/IN/EDWINMOURINO/
Questions?
25
Back Up
The Evolution of an Organization – Organizational Change Implications
http://www.kotterinternational.com/
28
Skills & Professions for the FutureSkills for the future
1. Critical Thinking and Problem Solving
2. Collaboration
3. Adaptability
4. Initiative
5. Oral & Written Communications
6. Accessing & Analyzing Information
7. Curiosity & Imagination
Best Job Opportunities1. Biomedical Engineer
2. Diagnostic Medical Sonographer
3. Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialist
4. Physical Therapists
5. Dental Hygienist
6. Audiologists
7. Medical Scientist
8. Veterinarian
9. Occupational Therapist
10.Optometristhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS2PqTTxFFc&feature=related Dr Tony Wagner
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-best-paying-jobs-of-the-future.html?page=all
29
“The U.S. is not creating more and more high-pay, low-skilled jobs. It’s creating more high-pay($), high-skilled jobs.
No one said that earning a living in the 21st century is going to require less education. It’s going to require more.”
Ed Gordon (author of Future Jobs), The Futurist, November-December 2013
30
Net-Generation, Gen Y, MillennialsShifting Paradigms
• Changing Everything• Work collaboratively
• Consumers > Prosumers
• Education – challenging Pedagogy and teacher centered
• Family-changing relationships
• Citizen change
• Global touch
• 8 Net Gen Norms• Freedom
• Customize and Personalize
• New Scrutinizers
• Corporate Integrity & Openness
• Entertainment & Play @ work
• Collaboration & Relationship Generation
• Speed
• Innovators
Communications mode is different from other generations
Social Networking
Aka-Social Cyborg
31
Mature workers are Essential Talent for Organizations of the Future
• Next 20 years 80% of workforce growth will be over the age of 50
• Over 70% expect to continue working after retirement
• Times are changing
• 1900 – avg. life expectancy – 47
• 2011 – avg. life expectancy – 80
• Increasingly more are “Working for a Purpose”
• AARP Best Employer List
• Employee development
• Health benefits
• Age of the workforce
• Alternative work arrangements and time off
• Retirement benefits and pensions
• For every two experienced workers leaving the workforce, only one (relatively inexperienced) worker joins it.
As the population ages, organizations of the future will no longer be able to rely just on the younger workers.
32
Impact of Change on Productivity
Effective transition affects the depth and breadth of the productivity gapEffective transition affects the depth and breadth of the productivity gap
Productivity
4.8 hours
Social “stuff”
1.5 hours
Personal“stuff”
1.7 hours
In 8Hours
Productivity
1.2 Hours
Speculation Gossip
3.2 hours
“ME” Issues
1.8 hours
What /How
1.8 hours
In 8
Hours
Pre Transition During Transition
32
Source – Pritchett & Associates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2zqTYgcpfg
X
X
X
CURRENT STATE
NEWSTATE
SENSEOF STABILITY
SENSEOF CONSTANCY
INTELLECTUALACCEPTANCE
•CONCEPTUALLY•IMPLICATIONS UNCLEAR
DECISION•LET’S MOVE AHEAD•IDENTIFY WHAT STEPS/ ACTIONS NEED TO BE TAKEN
Commitment•IT “CLICKS”•INTEGRATION•IMPLEMENTATION•RESULTS
IMPATIENCEUNCERTAINTY
LEARNINGMISTAKES
THESTRUGGLE
T r a n s i t i o n
X
CHANGE Announced
TIME
X
What May Change in as a ResultPeople/Behavior
Organizational cultureProcess – ModelCommunication
SystemsStructure
33
Why do businesses need to Change?
34“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential”. Ray Kurzweil - futurist
Of the 500 companies that appeared on the first Fortune 500 list in 1955, less than 70 hold a place on the list today. Nearly 2,000 companies have appeared on the list since its inception - most are now long gone. However, companies like P&G, Johnson & Johnson and GE have had more than a century of sustained success by holding tight to core values and continuing to innovate. And some of the most powerful companies on todays list—businesses like Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Dell, and Google—grew from nothing upon entirely new technologies.
Drivers of Transformational Change
35Passion moves mountains. Creating a “passionate enterprise” is a modern leadership imperative. Tom Peters
Fifty years ago, “milking the cash cow” could go on for many decades. What’s different today is that globalization and the shift in power in the marketplace from buyer to seller is dramatically shortening the life expectancy of firms that are merely milking their cash cows. Half a century ago, the life expectancy of a firm in the Fortune 500 was around 75 years. Now it’s less than 15 years and declining even further.
Implementing & Institutionalizing Change
+ Skills + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan =
Where
Vision + + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan =
How ?
Vision + Skills + + Resources + Action Plan =
WIIFM ?
Vision + Skills + Incentive + + Action Plan =
With What ?
Leadership Commitment & Support
Vision + Skills + Incentive + Resources + Action Plan = Change!
+
False Starts
Frustration
Gradual Change
Anxiety
Confusion
Vision + Skills + Incentive + Resources + =
Game Plan ?
Did You Know… ?Did You Know… ?
Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005 Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005
12% of Employees leave for more $ money
88% of Employees leave for other reasons
89% of Managers believe employees leave for more $ money
11% of Managers believe employees leave for other reasons
80% of Managers believe employees just happy to have a job53% of employees feel this way
Many Workers Could Jump Ship USA Today, Aug 2009
• Replacement costs• 150% of employees salary
38
Why They LeaveWhy They Leave
• Lacked respect / support
• Job duties boring / no challenge
• Lacked leadership skills
• Not recognized for my contribution
• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee
relations• Incompetent• Lacked technical skills• Limited training
opportunities
• Lacked respect / support
• Job duties boring / no challenge
• Lacked leadership skills
• Not recognized for my contribution
• Displayed favoritism• Poor employee
relations• Incompetent• Lacked technical skills• Limited training
opportunities
• Discrimination• Harassment• Benefits• Coworkers’ attitudes
Source: Leigh Branham, “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”, 2005
40
Considerations and Recommendations
Learning Organization
Engage Internally & Externally
Anticipate & Adapt
Decide on Priorities
Environmentalist
Relationships of Respect & Recognition
41
Four Generations At Work Veterans (5% workforce, Age 61+)
Dignity – respect and mine for knowledge, Mentor
Link – help them leave their legacy
Boomers (45% workforce, Ages 43--61)
Passion – meaningful work
Reward – notice and thank them for their dedication and commitment
X’ers (40% workforce, Ages 30-42)
Careers – keep them challenged and learning
Information – keep them in the loop, provide flexibility, work/life balance
Y’ers (10% workforce, Ages <29)
Opportunity – exercise intellectual curiosity and work in teams
Goals - help create multiple career options and a sense of security
41
Changing PopulationChanging
Population
Source: “Love “Em or Lose “Em” – 26 Strategies that WorkPresented by Human Resource Institute (HRI), 2005Different Communication modes being used2020 Group
ExternalEnvironment
OrganizationalDepartmental
Success
SatisfactionRetentionProductivityLoyaltyTrustCommitmentCustomer Loyalty
Organizational Benefits
Organizational/DepartmentalEnvironment/Culture
Co-locatedEmployees
ExternalEnvironment
ExternalEnvironment
ExternalEnvironment
Employee
Leader
LMX Virtual/Co-located Model
Leader-Employee RelationshipsVirtualEmployees
EmployeeSatisfaction
CustomerLoyalty
BottomLine Impact
LeaderBehavior
Source: Edwin Mouriño, Ph.D., Barry University, 2005
43
The Future of
Technology, Work, and our Lives???
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