21-22 March 2005 LMD, Palaiseau, France

CHIMERE workshop

Air quality assessment for Portugal

A. Monteiro, C. Borrego, A.I. Miranda, R. Vautard

Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal

objectives...

...to contribute to the air quality evaluation, according to the AQ Framework Directive

...to verify the fulfilment of the Daughter Directives for NO2, SO2, CO and specially O3

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range

Weather Prediction)

meteorology

3D fields WindTemperatureSpecific humidity

2D fields Superficial pressureCloud coverPrecipitation

CHIMERE gas-phasephotochemistry

3D fieldsPollutants concentrationO3, NO2, NO, CO, COV, SO2

2D fields Pollutants deposition

methodology...model system

methodology...study domain

1a simulation at continental scale

10.5W 22.5E

35N

57.5N

Initial and background conditionsMOZART climatological modelemissionsEMEP inventoryvertical structure6 levels (50, 250, 600, 1200, 2000 e 3000 m)

simulation period2001

50x50 km

methodology...study domain

“simple one-way technique”

2a simulation nested to PORTUGAL domain

methodology...study domain

290 km

580 km

10x10 km

Initial and background conditionssimulated outputs 50x50 kmemissions “top-down” methodology (VII CNA: Monteiro et al, 2001)

2a simulation nested to PORTUGAL

domain

AQ standart (µg.m-3)

Nº of allowed excedeences

Target date

SO2 (1999/30/EC)350 24 times/year 1 Jan 2005125 3 times/year 1 Jan 200520 - -

20 - - NO2 (1999/30/EC)

200 18 times/year 1 Jan 201040 - 1 Jan 2010

CO (2000/69/EC)10 mg.m-3 - 1 Jan 2005

O3 (2002/3/EC)120 25 times/year 1 Jan 2010

18000 µg.m-3.h

- 1 Jan 2010

180 - -

Parameters

Human health protectionHuman health protection

Vegetation protectionVegetation protection

Human health protectionHuman health protection

Human health protection

Human health protection (target value)

Vegetation protection (AOT40) (target value)Information threshold

Alert threshold

Period

Hourly averageDaily averageAnual averageWinter average

Hourly averageAnual average

8h running average

8h running average

Hourly average (May-July)

hourly averageHourly average 240 3 consecutive h -

air quality assessment

SO2 25ª m axim um hour of the year

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

SO 2(µg.m -3)

4ª m axim um da ily average of the year

SO 2(µg.m -3)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

165

180

195

210

225

240

125

human health protection

air quality assessment...2001!

limite value

limite valuePorto

Lisbon

0102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200

19ª m axim um hour o f the year

NO2(µg.m -3)

0246810121416182022242628303234363840

A nnual averageNO 2

(µg.m -3)

human health protection

air quality assessment...2001!NO2

limite valuelimite

value

human health protection

100

200

300

400

500

1000

5000

10000

C O( µ g . m - 3 )

M axim um 8h running average

0

200

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

C O( µ g . m - 3 )

Annua l average

air quality assessment...2001!CO

human health protection

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

26ª m axim um 8h running average

O 3(µg.m -3)

air quality assessment...2001!O3

limite value

VALOR-ALVO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO

OBJECTIVO LONGO-PRAZO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55 AO T40(µg.m -3.h)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

vegetation protectionExcedências A O T40

AOT exceedancesAOT exceedances

air quality assessment...2001!O3

Air Quality National network

##

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

###

###

#

background stations•industrial stations•traffic stations•

23517

45

validation exercise

Polutant

Error

 SO2

0,34

0,57

0,43

0,54

NO20,48

0,50

CO 0,32

 O3

0,16

0,59

Parameters

Human health protection (hourly limit value)

Human health protection(daily limit value)

Vegetation protection (annual limit value)

Vegetation protection (winter limit value)

Human health protection (hourly limit value)

Human health protection (annual limit value)

Human health protection (daily 8h limit value)

Human health protection (daily 8h limit value)

Vegetation protection (AOT40)

(annual average) 0,40

validation exercise...quantitatively

validation exercise...quantitatively

STATION TYPERMSE(µg.m-3)

r bias RMSE(µg.m-3)

r RMSE(µg.m-3)

r

AVA Background 18.46 0,78 -5,04 21,71 0,59 24,55 0,48

MVE Background 19.00 0,66 -3,56 9,36 0,53 33,12 0,49

LOU Background 19.93 0,85 -6,99 29,20 0,68 30,43 0,59

PP Background 20.10 0,80 -2,86 35,26 0,59 37,65 0,40

BEA Background 21.95 0,73 -9,22 33,85 0,49 32,65 0,53

REB Background 22.16 0,71 -4,23 33,50 0,63 25,51 0,66

ALF Background 22.41 0,65 10,38 30,39 0,53 33,50 0,47

LEC Background 22.55 0,73 -13,25 32,16 0,62 29,98 0,56

ERM Background 22.83 0,78 -10,41 32,85 0,58 26,24 0,61

LAR Background 22.85 0,77 -10,10 35,88 0,64 32,62 0,54

VNT Background 25.50 0,64 -11,66 34,34 0,63 32,25 0,53average 22 0.7 -7.8 33 0.4 34 0.4

NO2 SO2O3

validation exercise...quantitativelyAVANCA

(fundo rural)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O 3 (µg.

m-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

dias

MONTE CHÃOS(industrial)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O 3 (µg.

m-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

diasHOSPITAL VELHO

(tráfego)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O 3 (µg.

m-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

dias

background

industrial

traffic

observedsimulated

O 3(µ

g.m

-3)

good agreement

overestimation

overestimation

modelled measured modelled measured NO2

O3

Experimental campaigns with difusion tubes

validation exercise...quanlitatively

2001 05 27 15H

ER M ESIN D E200

TE IXU G U EIR A240

2001 05 28 14

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

TEIXU G U EIR A300

A VAN C A200

M O N TE VE LH O180

2001 05 29 14h

TEIX UG U EIR A200

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

O 3 (µg.m -3)

episode days...

sensitivity tests...RMS error

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

LOU BEA LAR REB PP LEC ALF ERM AVA VNT MVE CUS

background stations

µg.m

-3

V200410 MM5

V200410 ECMWFV200303 ECMWF

correlation factor

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

LOU BEA LAR REB PP LEC ALF ERM AVA VNT MVE CUS

background stations

V200410 MM5

V200410 ECMWFV200303 ECMWF

V 200410

V 200303

MM5

ECMWF

MM5

ECMWF

future work...

• operational air quality forecast for Portugal 10x10 km with zoom to Lisbon and Porto area

•aerosols version simulation •forest fire emissions estimation and its integration in the forecast air quality system

•...

Thank you!