2020 vision
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2020 Vision. or, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Futurology:. the study and forecasting of the future, with predictions based on the likely outcomes of current trends - encarta. images from harry potter lexicon. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2020 Vision
or,
it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future
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Futurology:
the study and forecasting of the future, with predictions based on the likely
outcomes of current trends- encarta
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“In any forecasting project it’s always good to start by making it clear that
most things will be the same.
Look at any 10 year time-span and most things are mostly the same
before and after.”
- Russell Davies
http://russelldavies.typepad.com/planning/account_planning_school_of_the_web/page/3/
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a lot can happen in ten years…
• 2000fair trade bananas in co-op stores
• 2001human genome sequenced
• 2003hybrid cars
• 2004facebook
• 2005youtube
• 2007iphone launched
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the big picture
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“There's an important shift towards local. Clever people everywhere see that if it's
shipped in on fossil fuel it's likely to not be there in 20 years or so. Maybe 5, who
knows.
So that's local, barter economy, local currencies and a tectonic shift against the
corporation and banks.”
- Charles Frith
http://www.charlesfrith.com /
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“So its likely that the future is a mix of what we want, what we want to be, what we cant do without, what we can't admit we can't do without and cutting out the
stuff where we're reliant on the institutions that provide them.
Its slow moving but its undeniable.” - Charles Frith
http://www.charlesfrith.com
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demographics
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UK population
• We know that the demographic landscape of the UK will shift considerably over the next 10 years
• The UK population is projected to grown by over 4M by 2018
• 55% natural increase (more births than deaths)
• 45% net migration
source: ONS
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by 2013:
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by 2013:
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What might this mean?
• By 2020 a third of us will be living alone (Future Foundation)
• Children living with both biological parents in the same household will be in the minority
• More twenty and thirty somethings living at home
• Home extensions
• Multigenerational living
• Personalised space – bedsits with own technology and relaxation space
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People working longer in order to
pay for the cost of living
Switch to part time
Customer service benefits
images from B&Q
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technology
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Digital Natives
“The generations becoming adults between now and 2020 are the first to grow up with the internet and global communication as a fundamental part of their everyday lives”
– Rob Mortimer www.ad-pit.com
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Digital Natives vs. Digital Immigrants
“There’s a dividing line between those under the age of about 25ish and those above. Those above will still respond to traditional ‘above the line’ interruption communications, but the under 25s just don’t consume media that way. They’re used to being in control and doing stuff in a multi platform way”
- Andrew Hovells, (Northern Planner) http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/
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Screens and chips
convergenc
e
Digital multitaskin
g
Solo viewing
On demand
The Digital
Home
photo by obliterated on flickr
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engaging with friends and family
Sacrificing on other forms of entertainment in order to spend on technology
75% increase in technology sales over the last decade
Homedulg
ence
source: LSN Global (via Andrew Hovells), photo by harmoney on flickr
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Multiscreen trends
found via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com
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Intelligen
ce &
connectivi
ty turns
products
into
services
via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com
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Trends cross cultural and geographical boundaries increasingly fast
People spending more time online
Conversing / doing things with people who are geographically remote
Global Village
image from dou_ble_you on flickr
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Post multitasking
Skimming the surface of incoming data, picking out the relevant details, and moving on to the next stream
Yearning for
silence
and/or
Wanting to get
to the bottom
of things
Continuo
us
partial
attention
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slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
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slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
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slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
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Social shopping / team buying
Friend/peer recommendation
Buying is a visual, emotive process
‘me tail’
Monetising?
Evoluti
on of
social
networ
ks
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Vigilante consumersVigilante consumers
• The consumer manipulates marketers and the marketplace through pressure, protest and politics:– Twitter vs. Daily Mail re Stephen Gately article
results in 22,000 complaints to PCC– Old man vs. tube worker – apology,
investigation, worker resigned
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consumer/retail trends
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Source: Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business’, Verdict Consulting/Webloyalty
Rapid
growth in
online
retailing set
to slow in
next 5 years
Likely to
average 11%
as market
matures
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Catalogues
not going
away
-Quality
-Shelf life
-convenience
-Browse vs.
order
BUT don’t
repeat mail
Flick and Click
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Sustainable mail order
•Recycled
•Recyclable
•Minimising waste
•Tobi.com – ‘love an ugly box’
•Lush popcornphoto by tobi.com
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Super loyal
VsSavvy
Eroding the
middle ground
the new
brand loyalt
y
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Instant gratificati
on
photo from psfk.com
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Sustainability
• Currently buying ‘green’ or ‘ethical’ is a motivator - with the expectation of payback
• But this will eventually become a hygiene factor
• Sustainability is shifting to the core of business – e.g. Starbucks goes fair trade
• Mainstream confusion over ethical labelling
• Where do you draw the line?
• Difficult to separate social & environmental benefits
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The divided consumer
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AnchoringAnchoring
• Spiritual anchoring in times of turbulence and change
• Stabilising in a place of peace & trust
• Looking at the larger picture in which circumstances sit
• Reaching back to our spiritual roots
• Reaction to digital lives – desire for pragmatism and peace
• Opportunity for products and brands that alleviate anxiety/fears
source WGSN, photo by jpc101 on flickr
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Simple pleasuresSimple pleasures
• Frustrated, slightly worn down consumers, needing cheap release
• Open to good, positive ideas for future
• Me time, family time, quality time
• Enjoying life
photo by penmachine on flickr
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• Asking customers to decide and/or donate
• Assisting customers in smart, generous, relevant ways to make life more convenient
• Perkonomics – perks & privileges to satisfy need for status and/or convenience
• Tryvertising – end users, not influencers, product sampling & experiential
GenerosityGenerosity
source trendwatching.com, photos by jennmae on flickr and Waitrose
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Common sense and
good service
Using technology to understand our quirks
Technology can create distance (e.g. email)Online practical guides
Personalised search
Value vs. costGenuine service Empowering employeesBringing a sense of worth to item
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fashion
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Democratisation of luxury
but disappearing middle ground
discount luxury
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Democratisation of luxury
• According to the Future Foundation, 63% of us would rather buy one beautifully made item than lots of cheaper items
natural
make & do
functional
sustainable
recycled
simple
creative
imaginative
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Fickleness going out of fashion
New luxury =
high end, quality, durable, improving
over timeimages from Howies and RussellDavies
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•Buy less,
wear more
•Capsule
wardrobes
•Selective
shopping
•Key pieces
•Updating and
embellishing
•Quality over
bargains
•Provenance?
•Textile
waste?
Buying less but
better
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I am my
own
fashion
editor
Storytelling
40% of all products sold online by 2020 (WGSN)
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food
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Key food trends
Health(ier)
Convenience
Indulgent
Provenance
Value
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Political
consumerism
Meaningful
consumption –
provenance,
home baking
Buying from
people, not
companies
Word of Mouth,
grassroots
photos by dominiccampbell and rossendalewadey on flickr
Shopping for change
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Provena
nce
growin
g
in n
ew
(old
)
direct
ion
s
Food miles vs. fair trade
Growing/foraging own food
Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producer
Quick (technology) as well as slow (old skills) cooking
images by sandyaustin on flickr and shropshires.com
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Connecting the kitchen with the garden
• Compost goes into garden
• Produce from garden/allotment comes into kitchen
• 44% of settled suburban dwellers grow or plan to grow their own vegetables (future foundation)
• Rooftop gardens and shared courtyards in urban areas
• Gardens as outdoor rooms
photo by folkbird on flickr
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society
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New ways of working
• Expectations raised• Collaboration• Learning – digital natives and digital immigrants• Flexibility - 12M of us potentially working from
home by 2012 at least once a week (LSN global)
• Respect for the individual• Network IS the workplace
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"We are preparing students for jobs that don't yet exist, using technology that has not yet been invented, in order to solve problems that we don't even know are
problems.“- Karl Fisch
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Community volunteers
• Predicted resurgence
• More active retired
• London 2012 volunteer programme – encourages local volunteering before and after event
photo by scottishgovernment on flickr
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so, what does this all mean?
• More young and old elderly
• Shifts in household size – smaller and larger
• Super loyal and savvy shoppers
• Need to cater for digital natives and digital immigrants
• Social is becoming part of all media streams
– allows groups with shared purposes
• Cross channel purchasing
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so, what does this all mean?• The new luxury:
– Beautifully made– Hand crafted– Long lasting– High quality– Connecting with the producer
• Sustainability– Shifting to the core of business, but becoming hygiene factor– More ethical evangelists– Everyone ‘doing their bit’ (but don’t question them)– Loyalists want to get involved, reward with Perkonomics
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Finally - look out for the wildcard!
• is the world is cooling, not warming?
• What if the internet was disabled?
• Could mankind invent a new energy source comparable to oil?
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Many thanks to the following for their contributions:
• Andrew http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/
• Rob www.ad-pit.com
• Charles www.charlesfrith.com
• Neil http://www.neilperkin.typepad.com/
• Paul http://paulmallett.wordpress.com/
Creative Commons applies to all linked photos, other images and this document as a whole
all data as at November 2009
written / collated by Gemma Teed @ Brahm