1.2020 Vision or, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

2. 3. Futurology:

the study and forecasting of the future, withpredictionsbased on the likely outcomes ofcurrenttrends

- encarta

4. images fromharry potter lexicon 5.

In any forecasting project its always good to start by making it clear that most things will be the same.

Look at any 10 year time-span and most things are mostly the same before and after.

- Russell Davies

http://russelldavies.typepad.com/planning/account_planning_school_of_the_web/page/3/ 6. a lot can happen in ten years

2000 fair trade bananas in co-op stores

2001 human genome sequenced

2003 hybrid cars

2004 facebook

2005 youtube

2007 iphone launched

7. the big picture 8. There's an important shift towards local. Clever people everywhere see that if it's shipped in on fossil fuel it's likely to not be there in 20 years or so. Maybe 5, who knows. So that's local, barter economy,local currencies and a tectonic shift against the corporation and banks . - Charles Frith http://www.charlesfrith.com/ 9. So its likely that the future is a mix of what we want, what we want to be, what we cant do without, what wecan't admit we can't do without and cutting out the stuff where we're reliant on the institutions that provide them.Its slow moving but its undeniable. - Charles Frith http://www.charlesfrith.com 10. demographics 11. UK population

We know that the demographic landscape of the UK will shift considerably over the next 10 years

The UK population is projected to grown by over 4M by 2018

55% natural increase (more births than deaths)

45% net migration

source: ONS 12. 13. by 2013: 14. by 2013: 15. What might this mean?

By 2020 a third of us will be living alone(Future Foundation)

Children living with both biological parents in the same household will be in the minority

More twenty and thirty somethings living at home

Home extensions

Multigenerational living

Personalised space bedsits with own technology and relaxation space

16. images fromB&Q People working longer in order to pay for the cost of living Switch topart time Customer service benefits 17. technology 18. Whats next? ? 15 years photo byrewindmuseum 19. Digital Natives

The generations becoming adults between now and 2020 are the first to grow up with the internet and global communication as a fundamental part of their everyday lives

Rob Mortimerwww.ad-pit.com

20. Digital Natives vs. Digital Immigrants

Theres a dividing line between those under the age of about 25ish and those above.

Those above will still respond to traditional above the line interruption communications, but the under 25s just dont consume media that way.Theyre used to being in control and doing stuff in a multi platform way

- Andrew Hovells, (Northern Planner)http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/

21. photo byobliteratedon flickr Screens and chips convergence Digital multitasking Solo viewing On demand The Digital Home 22. photo bywfryeron flickr Together but apart 23. engaging with friends and family Sacrificing on other forms of entertainment in order to spend on technology 75% increase in technology sales over the last decade Homedulgence source: LSN Global (viaAndrew Hovells ), photo byharmoneyon flickr 24. Multiscreen trends found via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com 25. Intelligence & connectivity turns products into services via Paul Malletthttp://paulmallett.wordpress.com 26. image fromdou_ble_you on flickr Trends cross cultural and geographical boundaries increasingly fast People spending more time online Conversing / doing things with people who are geographically remote Global Village 27. Continuous partial attention Post multitasking Skimming the surface of incoming data, picking out the relevant details, and moving on to the next streamYearning for silence and/orWanting to get to the bottom of things 28. image viaplaysoft 29. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com 30. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com 31. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com 32. Social shopping / team buying Friend/peer recommendation Buying is a visual, emotive process me tail Monetising? Evolution of social networks 33. Vigilante consumers

The consumer manipulates marketers and the marketplace through pressure, protest and politics:

• Twitter vs. Daily Mail re Stephen Gately article results in 22,000 complaints to PCC

• Old man vs. tube worker apology, investigation, worker resigned

34. consumer/retail trends 35.

Source: Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business, Verdict Consulting/Webloyalty

Rapid growth in online retailing set to slow in next 5 yearsLikely to average 11% as market matures 36.

Catalogues not going away

Quality

Shelf life

convenience

Browse vs. order

BUT dont repeat mail

Flick and Click 37. photo bytobi.com Sustainable mail order

Recycled

Recyclable

Minimising waste

Tobi.com love an ugly box

Lush popcorn

38. Super loyalVs Savvy Eroding the middle ground the new brand loyalty 39.

photo frompsfk.com

Instant gratification 40. Sustainability

Currently buying green or ethical is a motivator - with the expectation of payback

But this will eventually become a hygiene factor

Sustainability is shifting to the core of business e.g. Starbucks goes fair trade

Mainstream confusion over ethical labelling

Where do you draw the line?

Difficult to separate social & environmental benefits

41. The divided consumer 42. 43. Anchoring

Spiritual anchoring in times of turbulence and change

Stabilising in a place of peace & trust

Looking at the larger picture in which circumstances sit

Reaching back to our spiritual roots

Reaction to digital lives desire for pragmatism and peace

Opportunity for products and brands that alleviate anxiety/fears

sourceWGSN , photo byjpc101on flickr 44. Simple pleasures

Frustrated, slightly worn down consumers, needing cheap release

Open to good, positive ideas for future

Me time, family time, quality time

Enjoying life

photo by penmachine on flickr 45.

Asking customers to decide and/or donate

Assisting customers in smart, generous, relevant ways to make life more convenient

Perkonomics perks & privileges to satisfy need for status and/or convenience

Tryvertising end users, not influencers, product sampling & experiential

Generosity sourcetrendwatching.com , photos byjennmaeon flickr andWaitrose 46. Common sense and good service Using technology to understand our quirks Technology can create distance (e.g. email) Online practical guides Personalised search Value vs. cost GenuineserviceEmpowering employees Bringing a sense of worth to item 47. fashion 48. Democratisation of luxury

but disappearing middle ground

discount luxury 49. Democratisation of luxury

According to the Future Foundation, 63% of us would rather buy one beautifully made item than lots of cheaper items

natural make & do functional sustainable recycled simple creative imaginative 50. New luxury = high end, quality, durable, improving over time images from Howies andRussellDavies Fickleness going out of fashion 51.

Buy less, wear more

Capsule wardrobes

Selective shopping

Key pieces

Updating and embellishing

Quality over bargains

Provenance?

Textile waste?

Buying less but better 52. I am my own fashion editor Storytelling 40% of all products sold online by 2020 (WGSN) 53. food 54. Key food trends Health(ier) Convenience Indulgent Provenance Value 55. photos bydominiccampbellandrossendalewadeyon flickr Political consumerism Meaningful consumption provenance, home baking Buying from people, not companies Word of Mouth, grassroots Shopping for change 56. Provenance growing in new (old) directions Food miles vs. fair tradeGrowing/foraging own food Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producerQuick (technology) as well as slow (old skills) cooking images bysandyaustinon flickr andshropshires.com 57. Connecting the kitchen with the garden

Compost goes into garden

Produce from garden/allotment comes into kitchen

44% of settled suburban dwellers grow or plan to grow their own vegetables(future foundation)

Rooftop gardens and shared courtyards in urban areas

Gardens as outdoor rooms

photo byfolkbirdon flickr 58. society 59. New ways of working

Expectations raised

Collaboration

Learning digital natives and digital immigrants

Flexibility - 12M of us potentially working from home by 2012 at least once a week (LSN global)

Respect for the individual

Network IS the workplace

60.

"We are preparing students for jobs that don't yet exist, using technology that has not yet been invented, in order to solve problems that we don't even know are problems.

- Karl Fisch

61. Community volunteers

Predicted resurgence

More active retired

London 2012 volunteer programme encourages local volunteering before and after event

photo byscottishgovernmenton flickr 62. so, what does this all mean?

More youngandold elderly

Shifts in household size smallerandlarger

Super loyalandsavvy shoppers

Need to cater for digital nativesanddigital immigrants

Social is becoming part of all media streams

• allows groups with shared purposes

Cross channel purchasing

63. so, what does this all mean?

The new luxury:

• Beautifully made

• Hand crafted

• Long lasting

• High quality

• Connecting with the producer

Sustainability

• Shifting to the core of business, but becoming hygiene factor

• More ethical evangelists

• Everyone doing their bit (but dont question them)

• Loyalistswantto get involved, reward with Perkonomics

64. Finally - look out for thewildcard !

is the world is cooling, not warming?

What if the internet was disabled?

Could mankind invent a new energy source comparable to oil?

65. Many thanks to the following for their contributions:

Andrew http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/

Rob www.ad-pit.com

Charles www.charlesfrith.com

Neil http://www.neilperkin.typepad.com/

Paul http://paulmallett.wordpress.com/

Creative Commons applies to all linked photos,other images and this document as a whole

all data as at November 2009 written / collated by Gemma Teed @Brahm 66. photo bytravelinlibrarian on flickr