2019 u.s. cpg growth leaders...may 06, 2020 · •consumer trends: tapping in to evolving trends,...
TRANSCRIPT
May 2020
2019 U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS
IRI Growth Consulting
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Executive Summary
Growth in the U.S. CPG industry accelerated slightly in 2019, reaching 2.2% in measured channels, vs. 2.0% in 2018. Pricing / mix drove growth (+2.5% YoY) for third straight year in measured channels; volume declined (-0.3%) for first time in seven years…• Growth yet again propelled by small CPGs (<$1B revenue) & Private Label, taking $19B in value from medium/large players since
2014. However, PL growth and share gain both decelerated in 2019 (3.9% growth vs. 5.4% in 2018)• Mid-sized & large companies grew at a slower rate, but accelerated slightly (1% YoY growth vs. 0.8% in 2018)
…with continued movement towards unmeasured channels, including E-commerce, store pickup, mom and pops, and Club.
Growth Leaders index highlights winning small, medium, and large companies leading their peers in share and $ / volume growth.
9 of top 10 large Growth Leaders have previously been on the list – while small & medium sized leaderboards saw new top entrants• Large ($5.5B+): Constellation Brands topped list for third year in a row, with Modelo and Corona growing ~$500M • Medium ($1B-5.5B): Mark Anthony Brands, new to the list, ranked 3rd, driven by White Claw Hard Seltzer (+300% YoY) • Small (<$1B): E-cigarette company NJOY, also new to the list, was fastest growing small company declining tobacco category
Given low growth environment, top 10 large Growth Leaders collectively saw volume declines for first time (-0.6% YoY growth contribution). However, large Growth Leaders outperformed other large peers, which declined -2.8% in volume growth contribution YoY.
Growth Leaders have consistently driven performance using four levers: Innovation, Pricing, E-commerce & addressing consumer trends• Innovation: Supplementing acquisition with core innovation across both acquired & owned brands (e.g., Tyson Hillshire snacking)• Pricing: Increasing price surgically by sub-category to counter higher COGS and lower sales volumes (e.g., P&G in paper towels)• E-Commerce: Driving increased e-comm penetration by deploying consistent approach to win on digital shelf (incl. click & collect)• Consumer trends: Tapping in to evolving trends, e.g., protein on-the-go, premium and natural self care, Hispanic, etc.
Small, medium and large companies that proactively address these trends will be better positioned to capture growth in years to come.
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2014-2018
CAGR
2019 %
Chg. vs. YA
Total 2.0% 2.2%
Private Label 3.2% 3.9%
Extra Small 3.3% 3.9%
Small 3.0% 2.7%
Mid-Size 2.1% 3.0%
Large 1.1% 1.0%
Smaller Manufacturers and Private Label Capturing Share at a Sustained Rate
$ Sales % of CPG Scans by Manufacturer Size
48.7% 47.1% 46.6%
16.0% 15.9% 16.0%
11.5% 12.1% 12.1%
9.1% 9.5% 9.7%
14.7% 15.3% 15.6%
$836B
2014 2018 2019
$757B $818B
+0.5
+0.5
-0.1
-1.5
+0.2
+0.1
+0.1
-0.6
+0.6 +0.3
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
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Measured U.S. CPG Price/Mix Growth Recovering
CPG Sales Growth
% chg. vs. YA
Price/mix acceleration,
particularly in non-edible
CPG
Continued, high growth of
e-commerce including
store pick-up, delivery
and shipment
2012
3.0%
2013 20182014 2015 2016 2017
1.7%
2.5%
3.0%
1.5% 1.4%
2.0%
2019
2.2%
2.9% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 0.8%Price/Mix 1.4% 1.9%
Volume 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Dollars
2.5%
-0.3%
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
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2019 Growth Leaders
Which CPG companies are winning in the U.S. and why?
Eighth Annual Report
First to compare public and private CPG company performance
430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100M
sales in measured channels1
Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies:
• Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales
• Top 15 midsize: $1.0—$5.5B sales
• Top 15 small: $100M—$1B sales
Disaggregation of the companies’ underlying performance
1. Multi-outlet and convenience (MULOC) retailers are defined as food, drug, mass, Walmart, club (excluding Costco), dollar, military, and convenience
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DisaggregationThree Growth Metrics
Dollar sales % changeGrowth contribution due to distribution versus productivity
Volume sales % change Growth due to volume versus pricing
Price increases analyzed by true price versus mix shift
Dollar share point changePercent portfolio gaining, holding and losing share
Category dynamics (e.g., category trends, portfolio
concentration)
1
We use a Composite Growth Index to Understand who is Winning
2
3
Source: IRI and BCG analysis
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2019 Rankings
Returning and New Companies in the Top Rankings
New to list versus 2018 New to list versus 2012–18
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Large Companies Mid-Size Companies Small Companies
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
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#1 Growth
Category Brand 1 ($M) Brand 2 ($M) Brand 3 ($M)Top 3 Sales Combined Contribution %
Top 3 GrowthCombined Contribution %
Beer +$380 +$118 +$22 71% 108%
Skincare +$90 +$86 +$51 42% 64%
Breakfast-frozen &
meat+$166 +$108 +$24 52% 127%
Pet Food & Treats +$335 +37 +$29 13% 117%
OTC medication +$125 +$118 +$100 22% 30%
Chocolate Candy +$176 +$34 +$30 30% 110%
Cookies +$92 +$63 +$47 40% 128%
Gum +$97 +$65 +$50 29% 56%
Salty Snacks +$148 +$83 +$33 35% 178%
Cream/Creamers +$48 +$30 +$27 31% 139%
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Large Growth Leaders: Brands That Drove Sales Growth
Double
click on
next pg
INDICATES TOP 3 BRANDS GROWTH EXCEEDED OVERALL COMPANY SALES GROWTH
1
Note: 2019 year-over-year sales growth in US$ / 1. Coffee creamer contributed ~70% of growth.
New to List Versus 2018 New to List Versus 2012-182018 Growth Leader
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Constellation Brands is #1 Large Growth Leader for Third
consecutive Year, Driven by Mexican Beer – Primarily Modelo
1. Unmeasured IRI channels / Source: Industry Week, BCG analysis; Note: Constellation was previously on mid-size Growth Leader company list
New Products Drove Combined ~$100MM Sales
Growth for Corona Brand, Including Premier,
Familiar and Refresca
Modelo Especial Contributed ~90% of Modelo
Brand Growth (+$330MM in Sales and +31MM in
Volume) With a More Focused Strategy
• Expanded key distribution channels: on-premise and mom and pop store presence1
• Targeted specific geographies and MSAs; became #1 beer in S. California
• Focused on advantaged price point, benefiting from shift to premium products
• Pursued core Hispanic consumer e.g., Brian Ortega UFC commercial
• Successful product innovations extended portfolio beyond Corona Extra
• Corona Premier and Refresca enabled brand to defend against impact of hard seltzers
• Built innovative marketing platform for Premier based on golf and the U.S. Open sponsorship
• Will launch own seltzer product in Spring 2020
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E-Commerce as a
Growth Engine
Focused On
Emerging Trends
Surgical Pricing
Across Portfolio
Acquisitions
Supplemented by
Innovation
1 2 3 4
2019's Large Growth Leaders Have Driven Sustained
Growth Since 2014, Leveraging Several Common Drivers
2014-2019 Revenue CAGR Growth for Large Companies
Top 10 Growth Leaders
Others
1.7%
0.5%
3+x
Key Growth Drivers
Deep Dives On Coming Pages
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More Large Leaders Drove 2019 Performance Organically
3% 1%
9% 19%
53% 85%
8% 100%
0% 1%
7% 15%
2% 12%
5% -2%
3% 7%
54% >100%
Acquisition %
of Portfolio2019 $M vs. YA
(% of growth) Leading Acquisitions
-7
63
10
342
261
477 480
51
3
287
1
1,133 15
217184 33
337
19
358
138
323
-14 89
1,148
343
157
351
148
75
138
Acquired1 Declining AcqusitionLegacy
Acquisition %
of Total Growth
Note: Based on acquisitions made in last five years (since 2014) / Source: IRI POS data ending 12/30/18. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.
Acquisitions Supplemented by Innovation1
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Growth Leaders Continued to Drive Innovation with Acquired and Owned Brands
'18-19 YoY Product Sales
Acquired Growth
Driving new category innovation from acquired brands
Organic Growth
Growing through innovation with established brands
Activia Probiotics Dailies
delivered occasion-focused
innovation through a smaller,
on-the-go format (3.1 fluid oz),
promoting the ease of working
probiotics into a healthy and
active routine+$17M
Danone Licensed Baileys Coffee
Cream after Danone’s acquisition of
Whitewave and International Delight
leveraging the expertise acquired via
acquisition to build the licensee-based
expansion in the coffee creamer category+$22.5M
The Blend, a patty with beef and
plant-based protein, was introduced
as part of Tyson's new "Raised &
Rooted" brand to capitalize on the
growth of plant-based protein while
leveraging Tyson's historic strength
in animal protein
Note: IRI sales data for first 52 weeks of 2019 and 2018 / Source: IRI New Product Pacesetters (2019)
+$33M
Hillshire Snacking was
introduced post-Tyson
acquisition, marketed as a
“perfectly portioned protein
snack for an on-the-go
experience”, capturing
momentum from protein trend
Acquisitions Supplemented by Innovation1
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Investment/JV
Acquired
Ye
ar
of A
cq
uis
itio
n
Acceleration in Acquisition and Investment in Small Growth Leaders
Small Growth Leaders Acquired Since 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192012
Acquisitions Supplemented by Innovation1
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Top 10 Large Growth Leaders Decreased in Volume Overall
(vs. Prior Years Where Volume Increased)Large Companies
Volume and Price Contribution
5.4
3.3
2.3
-4.6
-0.6
-0.2
-2.1
-0.6
-0.7
1.9
3.7
0.5
8.5
3.1
2.2
5.1
2.4
2.0
2.5
0.8
2.1
4.5
7.3
3.4
2.7
3.9
3.0
1.7
1.3
Volume % Chg vs. YA Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA
Double click on next pg
Top 10 Large Growth Leaders
Only top 4 increased volume
-2.8
4.0
2.9All Others
Top 10 3.3
0.1
-0.6
Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA
Volume % Chg vs. YA
2.9%Top 4 vol.
growth
-2.5%
6-10 vol.
decline
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Surgical Pricing Across Portfolio2
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P&G Drove Value with Price Increases
VALUE
We’re looking,
as we innovate, to be
able to modestly [increase]
price and still build value.
- Jon Moeller, Vice Chairman,
COO, CFO, Q4 Earnings call
P&G executed surgical
pricing increases
across portfolio
to drive value
4.2%
4.1%
7.1%
4.6%
Top Categories by Sales Growth
and Corresponding ASP Increase1Examples of ASP
Changes at SKU Level
Baby Wipes
Toilet Tissue
Paper Towels
0.5%
0.5%
Diapers
Laundry Care 2.8%
Deodorant
Air Fresheners
Cold/Allergy/Sinus Liquids
0.6%
2.3%Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets
3.0%Gastrointestinal - Liquid
$804 M
$614 M
$544 M
$193 M
$58 M
$29 M
$28 M
$26 M
$24 M
$21 M
Sales Growth ASP Growth
12 roll
1. Same SKUs with volume above 10k both 2019 and 2018. Excludes new and discontinued SKUs
2. Sales growth for Bounty Select a Size 12-roll SKU exceeded overall Bounty brand growth due to partial
cannibalization for smaller pack sizes.
2018 ASP: $13.41
2019 ASP: $13.55
YoY Sales Growth:
+$36M
2018 ASP: $18.02
2019 ASP: $18.84
YoY Sales Growth:
+$128M2
30 oz
• Driven by consumer insight
and competitive landscape
• ASP increase differed by
category; 38 of 56
categories saw an ASP
increase relative to prior
year
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.
Surgical Pricing Across Portfolio2
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VALUEDigital Shelf Growth Leader Winners
Deploy a Consistent Approach
• Restructuring channel operations and merchandising to
ensure right SKUs are available
• Optimizing digital shelf / marketing for pre-purchased in
store pick ups at key retailers
• Leveraging investment in trade marketing in an E-
commerce setting (e.g., banner ads on amazon)
• Investing in a digital commerce organization (CoE or
dedicated digital teams)
• Having a dedicated brand store optimized for user
experience (DTC considerations)
of CPG portfolio by 2022
E-commerce
is growing in
significance –
estimated to be
~10%
Note: eCommerce includes all forms of online shopping (including click & collect) / Source: IRI Ecommerce Trends
20222019
~4-5%
~10%
E-comm penetration as % of CPG sales
GL DTC
Store Examples
E-Commerce as a Growth Engine3
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Multi-Functional Beverages
Beverages offering superior hydration or energy
through simpler and cleaner ingredients
Protein On-the-Go
Quicker and easier options
to meet daily protein needs
Better-for-You Snacking
Healthier versions of traditional snacks
Premium / Natural Self-Care
Willingness to pay a premium
to take care of body and/or household
Simple & Transparent
Natural, organic, minimal ingredients
Hispanic-Focused
Geared toward growing Hispanic
population emphasizing heritage
Winning Manufacturers and Brands are Tapping into Evolving Consumer Trends
Source: IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.
Deep dive in subsequent pagesNew in 2019
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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Multi-Functional Beverages are Outpacing Traditional Sugary Alternatives
Growth Leader ExamplesMulti-functional beverages provide
consumers with many nutritional benefits
Energy
Hard Seltzer
Double click follows
11%
6%
6%
17%
11%
6%
2%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
Refrigerated Teas
232%Hard Seltzer
Sports Drinks
Refrigerated Coffee
Seltzer/Sparkling/Mineral
Energy Drinks
Iced Coffee
Regular Soft Drinks
Rfg Juices/Drinks
Drink Mixes
Canned And Bottled Tea
Bottled Juices
2019 YOY growth (%)Hard Seltzer
Energy
Sugary Alternatives
HydrationHydration
Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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Bang Combines Energy & SportsVALUE
2014 201920182015 2016
$1,138
$2
2017
$1 $7 $32
$308
Bang Energy Growth Trajectory
2014-2019 retail sales, $M
Year 5
Bang's Path to Growth Had Several Key Elements
• Identified and solved consumer friction point for energy drinks with
sports and performance benefits
• Ritualized usage on back of new need created (e.g. drink a Bang
Energy Drink before workouts)
• Targeted distribution (e.g. gyms) to reach intended audience,
coupled with effective digital marketing (e.g., Instagram / influencers)
• Disrupted "better-for-me" with primarily sugar-free formulas
3x growth
by addressing unmet need at intersection of energy / sports
now exceeding
$1B
Source: IRI MULOC; desk research; industry publications; BCG analysis
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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VALUE
White Claw Capitalizes on Convenience
YoY growth
Convenient,
personalized,
and better for
you driving
300%+
Source: IRI MULOC; BCG and IRI Consulting analysis
57
20172016 2018 2019
10194
834
+449%+241%
+330%
Distribution1
Velocity2
35
$31
45
$113
60
$277
76
$804
White Claw Growth Trajectory
2014-2019 Retail Sales, $M
Multifunctional Convenience
Easily transportable product (slim, 12 oz. can) with advertising
campaigns that highlight consumption in a variety of occasions
Personalized Flavor
Flavored with clean and simple fruit based flavors, available in variety
packs to appeal to varied tastes and occasions
Better-for-You
Won drinkers from other alcohol categories with light, healthier
alternative (100 calories only relative to beer); significant growth also
coming from wine & spirits drinkers
1 – Max ACV Wtd Distribution, 2 – Dollars per $MM ACV
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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Protein On-the-Go: Ready-to-Eat and Convenient Offerings Driving Market Growth
6%
5%
5%Nutritional Health Bars
Frozen Breakfast Entrees
Dried Meat Snacks
Refrigerated Meat /
Cheese / Snack
Frozen Breakfast Handheld
2019 YOY growth (%)
Growth Leader
Examples:
Exemplar Set of Growth
Driving Brands by Sub-Category
Snacking
Breakfast
Old trapper
Growth Leader Brand YoY Growth %
Hillshire snacking
One Brands
Jimmy Dean Delights
Jimmy Dean Delights
+24%
+25%
+57%
+25%
+27%
Jimmy Dean +7%
Jimmy Dean +4%
Sub-Category Growth
7%
2%
Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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VALUE
Jimmy Dean: Premium On-the-Go Breakfast
YoY growth
Premium
On-the-Go
Protein Rich
Breakfast
Experience Driving
8%
Targeted Marketing
Targeting a younger
audience more flexible
in their eating patterns
with a "breakfast
all day" campaign
Innovative Product
Product development fueled
by "consumer pursuit of
heartier breakfast solutions"
that can be taken on the go
Biscuit roll-ups Eggs, meat and cheese in "roll-up"
Morning Combos on-the-go bites
pancakes and muffins
Better For You
Increased breakfast
offerings in the "better for
you" segment while still
maintaining high protein
868 948
152Jimmy Dean Delights
2016
166
1,023
2017
174
2018
207
1,284
1,076
2019
Jimmy Dean
1,0201,114
1,197+8%
$M Retail Sales 11.0%
7.4%
$ CAGRGrowth Trajectory (2014-2019)
Focused On Emerging Trends4
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Summary / Key Takeaways
2.2% growth for CPGs in 2019
(slight acceleration vs. 2018) driven by:
• Price and mix: Volume declined for the first year
(-0.3% growth) even among large growth leaders
• Smaller companies (<$1B) and Private Label:
These players are growing at 3-4% and have taken $19B
in sales from larger and midsized companies since '14
Four drivers of Growth Leaders success:
Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
Surgical pricing across portfolio
E-commerce as a growth engine
Focused against emerging trends
1
2
3
4
Please contact us to
discuss how these
opportunities may apply.
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Insights and Strategic
Guidance for Better Decisions
IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time
Updates and Weekly Reports Which Track
the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail
The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal
Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards
and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,
consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S.
AND international markets
The COVID-19 Dashboard and
The IRI CPG Demand Index™
Accessible through the insights portal
and tracks the daily impact of COVID-19.
This includes the new IRI CPG Demand
Index™, top selling and out-of-stock
categories across countries, and
consumer sentiment on social media.
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Confidential and Proprietary. 25
CONTACT US FOR MORE
INFORMATION
Dr. Krishnakumar(KK) Davey
President, Strategic Analytics
732-713-3446
Cara Loeys
Principal, Growth Consulting
312.912.3376
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appendix
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Large Winning Companies Switch Positions,
But Several Players are Frequently in the Top 10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LA
RG
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Lorillard
Lorillard Mondelez Intl
Anheuser
Busch InBevMondelez Intl Altria Grp Tyson Foods Tyson Foods
Campbell SoupDr. Pepper
Snapple Grp
Keurig Dr
PepperGeneral Mills
Altria GrpDr. Pepper
Snapple GrpTyson Foods General Mills
Campbell Soup Kimberly-Clark Conagra Brands
Nestle S A
SwitzerlandMondelez Intl
Imperial Brands
Kimberly-Clark LorillardMondelez Intl
Inc.Kellogg’s
Campbell Soup Kimberly-Clark Altria
2019
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Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
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Many Medium Players also Consistently in the Top
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ME
DIU
M
1
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Keurig Green
Mountain
Keurig Green
Mountain
Mead Johnson
NutritionGlaxosmithkline The Wonderful Co. Juul Labs Vital Pharma
Keurig Green
MountainHostess Hostess Cargill Juul Labs
McKee Foods EnergizerBlue Diamond
GrowersMark Anthony
Brands
Sterilite Link Snacks Egglands Best Post Boston Beer
Sterilite Hostess Schwan Food
Sterilite Land O Lakes Energizer Driscoll Strawberry
Bic The Wonderful Co. Abbott
Link Snacks Land O Lakes Schwan Food Co. Swedish Match
Link Snacks WH Group Land O LakesBlue Diamond
Growers
Blue Diamond
GrowersFerrero USA Hostess Brands
Merck SanofiScandinavian
TobaccoFoster Farms
Blue Diamond
Growers
Snyders Lance BicScandinavian
TobaccoPost Driscoll Strawberry
Spectrum Bic Johnsonville Rank Group Pinnacle Foods Flowers Foods Rank Group
Bayer Pfizer Glaxosmithkline Energizer Flowers Foods
Carlyle Group Tyson Post WH Group Abbott Glaxosmithkline H P Hood
Hain Celestial Sanofi Aventis Lindt Dole Foods Co
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Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
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Talking Rain Bev Co Kind Quest NutritionBodyarmor
SuperDrinkPax Labs (Juul) Vital Pharma Njoy
Paris Presents Skinny Pop Eden Creamery Harry’s Bodyarmor Nutrition
Handi Foil Talking Rain Bev Co Kind Fairlife Bragg Live Foods Pastificio Rana Spa Bodyarmor Nutrition Pastificio Rana Spa
Gryphon Investors Old World Ind eos Bai Brands Bai Brands Bragg Live Foods Lamb Weston Baker Mills
Vogue INTL Talenti Pastificio Rana Spa
YoCrunch Materne Schreiber Foods Country Creek Farms Califia Farms Bodyarmor Nutrition Global Water Tech KT & G
All Market All Market Noosa Yoghurt Handi Foil Olly Public Benefit
Panera Bread Kind Old Trapper Kiss Global Water Tech
Shurtape Tech Njoy Materne All Market Pete and Gerry's Kiss
National Fish &
SeafoodAqua Star Advanced Beauty Fairlife Core Natural Sovos Brands Rao’s Natrol
Roll Philips Electronics Paris Presents KissFoundation Consumer
HealthcareLamb Weston
Advanced Beauty Sys.Completely
Fresh FoodsPalermo Villa The Fishin' Co PDC Brands
Swiss Precision
DiagnosticsOld Trapper
Applegate Farms Mobil Corp Ready Pac Foods QuestNutrition American InternationalFoundation Consumer
Healthcare
Clif Bar Mobil Corp Applegate Farms Adv. Fresh Concepts Ready Pac Hisamitsu Pharm. Fairlife
Kens Foods Atkins Nutritionals Aqua StarIcelandic Milk
& Skyr Corp.Kiss Milos Tea
Few Small Companies Have Consistently Led
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.