2019 factbook launch - bcse€¦ · 13/02/2019 · gas turbine, advanced turbine blade and vane...

2019 Factbook LaunchMedia briefing

Ethan Zindler

February 13, 2019

1 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2019. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable

Energy.

About the Factbook: terminology

OT

HE

R C

LE

AN

EN

ER

GY

(no

t c

ove

red

in t

his

rep

ort

)

SU

ST

AIN

AB

LE

EN

ER

GY

(as d

efi

ned

in

th

is r

ep

ort

)

RENEWABLE

ENERGY

FOSSIL-

FIRED /

NUCLEAR

POWER

DISTRIBUTED POWER,

STORAGE, EFFICIENCYTRANSPORT

• Solar

• Wind

• Geothermal

• Hydro

• Biomass

• Biogas

• Waste-to-

energy

• Natural gas

• CCS

• Small-scale renewables

• CHP and WHP

• Fuel cells

• Storage

• Demand response / digital energy

• Building efficiency

• Industrial efficiency (aluminum)

• Direct use applications for natural gas

• Electric vehicles

(including hybrids)

• Natural gas vehicles

• Biofuels

• Fuel cell vehicles

• Wave / tidal• Nuclear • Industrial efficiency (other industries)


Energy.

About the Factbook: sector sub-sections

For each sector, the report

shows data pertaining to

three types of metrics

(sometimes multiple charts

for each type of metric)

Deployment: captures how much activity

is happening in the sector, typically in

terms of new build or supply and demand

Financing: captures the amount of

investment entering the sector

Economics: captures the costs of

implementing projects or adopting

technologies in the sector


Energy.

● U.S. power continued de-carbonizing thanks to gas and renewables growth, coal retirements.

● Employment grew.

● Energy remained affordable by historical standards to consumers.

● Electric vehicle sales gained traction.

But…

● Energy productivity improvements stalled.

● Energy consumption overall went up.

● CO2 emissions rose.

Factbook key findings


Energy.





But…






Energy.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, BloombergNEF

U.S. electricity generation by fuel type (%) U.S. electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)

U.S. energy overview: Electricity generation mix

44% 45% 42% 37% 39% 39% 33% 30% 30% 27%

20% 20% 19%19% 19% 19%

19% 20% 20%19%

24% 24% 25% 31% 28% 28% 33% 34% 32% 35%

11% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 18% 18%

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

Renewables(including hydro)

Natural gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8


Energy.

U.S. energy overview: Renewable energy capacity build by technology

Source: BloombergNEF, EIA Notes: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. Numbers include utility-scale (>1MW) projects of all

types, rooftop solar, and small- and medium-sized wind. Includes installations or planned installations reported to the EIA through October 2018, as well as BNEF

projections.

10.0

4.87.0

14.1

1.15.2

8.5 8.3 7.5 7.5

0.4

0.9

2.2

3.5

6.5

7.1

7.5

14.1

11.0 11.711.1

6.0

9.7

18.4

8.9

12.7

16.4

22.9

19.0 19.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GW

Hydro

Geothermal

Biomass. biogas,waste-to-energy

Solar

Wind


Energy.

U.S. energy overview: Electric generating capacity build by fuel type

Source: EIA, BloombergNEF Note: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. “Renewables” here does not include hydro, which is

shown separately. All capacity figures represent summer generating capacity. Includes installations or planned installations reported to the EIA through October 2018,

as well as BNEF projections.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

GW

Other

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal


Energy.

1 1 1 1 1 12

3

11

64

15

86

11

2

10

7

5

2

5

1

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

GW

Announced

Completed

U.S. energy overview: Completed and announced coal-fired plant retirements

Source: EIA, company announcements, BloombergNEF Notes: “Retirements” does not include conversions from coal to natural gas or biomass; includes retirements

or announced retirements reported to the EIA through October 2018. All capacity figures represent summer generating capacity.


Energy.





But…






Energy.

U.S. energy overview: Jobs in electricity generation

Source: The U.S. Energy Employment Report, NASEO and EFI. Notes: 2016 data is from Q1 2016, 2017 data is from 2Q 2017. “Advanced gas” uses a variety of

technologies including high efficiency compressor systems, advanced low NOx combustion technology, first application of closed loop steam cooling in an industrial

gas turbine, advanced turbine blade and vane materials, high temperature tbc and abradable coatings, advanced row 4 turbine blades, 3-d aero technology, or

advanced brush seal.

6

26

33

36

66

68

102

374

86

52

13

8

40

35

41

67

65

107

350

93

66

12

Geothermal

Bioenergy/CHP

Other Generation

Advanced Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Wind

Solar

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil/petroleumThousands of jobs

2017

2016


Energy.





But…






Energy.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, BNEF

Total energy goods and services as share of

total consumption expenditure

U.S. energy overview: Energy as a share of personal consumption expenditures

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15

Total energy expenditures

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15

Electricity

Natural gas

Electricity and natural gas as share of total

consumption expenditure


Energy.

U.S. energy overview: Average electricity rates for industry by country

Source: BloombergNEF, government sources (EIA for the U.S.) Notes: Prices are averages (and in most cases, weighted averages) across all regions within the

country. Japanese data is for the C&I segment and 2016 figures come from a different source than preceding years.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$/MWh (nominal)

Germany

Japan

India

China

Mexico

Canada

US


Energy.





But…






Energy.

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal, Marklines, California Fuel Cell Partnership. Note: PHEV stands for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, BEV stands for battery electric vehicle, HEV stands for hybrid electric vehicle and FCV stands for

fuel cell vehicle. EVs includes BEVs and PHEVs. FCV sales data not available prior to 2016. FCV sales numbers too low to be visible.

Deployment: Electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle sales in the U.S.

U.S. EV and FCV sales

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FCVs PHEVs BEVs Share of EVs in new car sales

150 thousand vehicles


Energy.





But…






Energy.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, BNEF Notes: Values for 2018 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based

on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2018). 2018 GDP estimate is a projection from economists compiled at ECFC <GO> on the

Bloomberg Terminal.

U.S. GDP and primary energy consumption U.S. energy productivity

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '18

Indexed to 1990 levels

GDP (indexed)

Primary energy consumption (indexed)

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '18

$ trillion of GDP / quadrillion BTU of energy

Energy

productivity

U.S. energy overview: Economy’s energy productivity


Energy.





But…






Energy.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '18

Quadrillion BTU

Power

Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

U.S. energy overview: Primary energy consumption by sector

Source: EIA, BNEF Notes: Values for 2018 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September

2018)


Energy.





But…






Energy.

Source: BloombergNEF, EIA, EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2016 Notes: “Sinks” refer to forests and green areas which absorb

carbon dioxide. Values for 2018 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on monthly values from EIA available through September 2018.

Economy-wide and energy sector emissions Emissions by sector

U.S. energy overview: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

4,000

4,800

5,600

6,400

7,200

8,000

1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '18

MtCO2e

Total (gross)

GHG emissions

GHG emissions

from energy sector

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '18

Power

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Other (incl.agriculture)

MtCO2e


Energy.

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2019 factbook launch - bcse€¦ · 13/02/2019 · gas turbine, advanced turbine blade and vane...

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